andyhb Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 Looks about ready to go in the NE TX Panhandle (GOES 16 data via COD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 First few radar returns too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 On 4/15/2017 at 7:39 PM, bjc0303 said: Gotta be able to anticipate how things are going to evolve. The atmosphere isn't static. Expand We'll see the degree of backing we achieve. Looks like due south now just ahead of the dryline so it's a good start. I'm still not super enthusiastic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 We were not that enthusiastic yesterday. Until the storm developed near Dimmitt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 On 4/15/2017 at 9:32 PM, Jim Martin said: We were not that enthusiastic yesterday. Until the storm developed near Dimmitt. Expand That was an exceptional case. For every one of those that produce on a marginal day there's 10 more that don't. I'll gladly eat my words if I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 On 4/15/2017 at 9:35 PM, WhiteoutWX said: That was an exceptional case. For every one of those that produce on a marginal day there's 10 more that don't. I'll gladly eat my words if I'm wrong though. Expand Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 Environments supportive of long lived supercells (discrete) have a shot. Ability to modify environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 Some rotation indicated on radar currently near Otoe, Nebraska, south of Omaha. Spotter Network report too of rapidly developing wall cloud with this storm near Otoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 Confirmed tornado (first of the day) near Otoe, Nebraska a short time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 For the Nebraska cell at least it's another instance of relatively high CAPE (3000) and relatively modest shear and helicity values somewhat similar to yesterday. Not saying by any means we'll get such a whopper of a tornado. But low to mid 60's dews are available ahead of those cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 Initiation trying to get going nw of Woodward OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 On 4/15/2017 at 10:16 PM, Indystorm said: For the Nebraska cell at least it's another instance of relatively high CAPE (3000) and relatively modest shear and helicity values somewhat similar to yesterday. Not saying by any means we'll get such a whopper of a tornado. But low to mid 60's dews are available ahead of those cells. Expand think that one had more to do with vertical vorticity near-sfc along the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 I assume a cap is what is preventing those nw OK cells from taking off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 Possible tornado near Watson, Missouri. Storm moving east. Storms are also taking off in S Central KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Tor now on the ground in nw MO per new warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Wall cloud being reported with the storm in Comanche County, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Behold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 On 4/16/2017 at 12:38 AM, Jim Martin said: Wall cloud being reported with the storm in Comanche County, KS. Expand Not too surprising... Basically the only storm thus far in that "sweet spot" for today that appears to have became well rooted to the boundary-layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 South of Coldwater, Kansas currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Quite the storm north of Omaha with tennis ball hail and 70 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Baseball size hail warning with our Comanche/Barber Co. KS cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Possible tornado near Dawson, Nebraska. Pretty good velocities seen by KTWX radar there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Appears that the Comanche County supercell is weakening rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Wind direction today is a bit more favorable. South to southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 First storm of the day near Lefors, Texas currently. Warned for half dollar size hail and 60 MPH wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 16, 2017 Author Share Posted April 16, 2017 Watch the discrete cell forming in the eastern Texas panhandle. It's been well-modeled by the HRRR all day. Although deep layer and low-level shear are lower-end, strong instability and veering winds with height (and favorable low level wind flow out of the southeast as Jim mentioned) should favor storm organization and maintenance for at least a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 On 4/16/2017 at 10:36 PM, Quincy said: Watch the discrete cell forming in the eastern Texas panhandle. It's been well-modeled by the HRRR all day. Although deep layer and low-level shear are lower-end, strong instability and veering winds with height (and favorable low level wind flow out of the southeast as Jim mentioned) should favor storm organization and maintenance for at least a couple of hours. Expand Storm is already beginning to split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Starting to get that look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 3D look at this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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