Santa Clause Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 Spc discussion seems to be pretty pessimistic on tornado formation, but did say a couple are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 00z CRP sounding looks fairly promising regarding moisture with a 72˚F sfc Td and the moist layer to about 850 mb. Low level jet does strengthen fairly substantially through the morning hours with the emergence of the shortwave from the Four Corners. Otherwise, antecedent synoptic conditions don't exactly lend a lot of confidence with the "ceiling" scenario, would've obviously helped if the system currently over Dixie hadn't taken a southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 13 minutes ago, andyhb said: 00z CRP sounding looks fairly promising regarding moisture with a 72˚F sfc Td and the moist layer to about 850 mb. Low level jet does strengthen fairly substantially through the morning hours with the emergence of the shortwave from the Four Corners. Otherwise, antecedent synoptic conditions don't exactly lend a lot of confidence with the "ceiling" scenario, would've obviously helped if the system currently over Dixie hadn't taken a southern track. There have been some pretty impressive moisture return cases in history. We'll see how it plays out. SREF mean has generally increased with each run. I was just about to post about the CRP sounding. That is an impressive moisture profile. Eager to see how things change overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 If the HRRRX is correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 32 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: If the HRRRX is correct... HRRRX has been consistent I'll give it that with supercell going up big time in the OKC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Tomorrow is one of those sneaky days that has definite potential to have significant severe, but a ton of variables to sort through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 also really digging Tuesday high plains setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Tomorrow is one of those sneaky days that has definite potential to have significant severe, but a ton of variables to sort through. It's not really "sneaky", people have been monitoring this for awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, andyhb said: It's not really "sneaky", people have been monitoring this for awhile. I just mean in regard to tornado threat. I realize there is a sizeable chance of significant severe in other areas as others have aptly noted. Great threads by the way, glad so many knowledgeable people like yourself keep us novices learning and engaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Rather strong signal from the 00z WRF-ARW/NMMB and NSSL WRF for an intense supercell or two INVOF the Red River right on the northern periphery of the 60s Tds. Just ahead of the trough axis on the southern periphery of the mid level cold pool (i.e. a place where it would make sense assuming at least half-decent moisture verification). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 One of the WRFs doesn't look too far off from the ESRL HRRR depicting broken line of supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Day 1 enhanced to start, main threat large hail with a couple tornadoes 5/15/30 hatched for hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 7z,8z, and 9z runs of the HRRR are remarkably consistent with a supercell over the OKC metro. Even with no tornadoes, large hail could make a huge mess where that tracks. A thing to note is that the 07z HRRR is a degreee or 2 high with dews over parts of south central Texas at 11z. This is corrected by the 09z run. It has been consistent with dew points in Oklahoma as of 11z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 SPC upgraded to MDT risk for very large hail in southern Oklahoma. Also now a 10% TOR and 30% hatched wind risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 1 hour ago, JasonOH said: 7z,8z, and 9z runs of the HRRR are remarkably consistent with a supercell over the OKC metro. Even with no tornadoes, large hail could make a huge mess where that tracks. A thing to note is that the 07z HRRR is a degreee or 2 high with dews over parts of south central Texas at 11z. This is corrected by the 09z run. It has been consistent with dew points in Oklahoma as of 11z. It's definitely ominous as far as the number of intense looking supercells. I'm still not convinced the tornado threat will be significant. Probably some brief and weaker spin ups. Moderate risk out now, for hail and wind. 10% TOR area in south central OK as well. At this point it's just wait and watch the higher dew points as they surge north this morning and early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: At this point it's just wait and watch the higher dew points as they surge north this morning and early afternoon. This exactly! I need to get some studying done (for a meteorology class), but I'm doing a surface analysis every 2-3 hours today. These are the days when the Mesonet is so awesome, since Obs are everything, especially on a day like today with questionable moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Graphic representation of the moderate risk today in Central Oklahoma and Far North Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Upper 50s/60 degree DPs starting to nudge their way into southern OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 The SPC has a day-3 Enhanced outlook for Abilene TX to near Lubbock and Midland-Odessa. The NAM and GFS show that dew points will be in the 60-65F range with 500mb winds around 45-50 kt in advance of an upper level trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 13 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Upper 50s/60 degree DPs starting to nudge their way into southern OK. a bit ahead of schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 The larger trend this year seems to be setups improving as we get closer to an event, as opposed to last year when it seemed like things tended to fall apart in the last few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 28, 2017 Author Share Posted March 28, 2017 Recent rainfall with more falling today across the southern/central High Plains should help put a dent in what was a gradually worsening drought, which will be a factor in severe threats into April. If we can sustain a fairly active upper air pattern and increase surface/boundary layer moisture at the same time, that will bode well with severe prospects in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 While moisture looks relatively poor, a brief window for strong supercells appears possible Tuesday along I-44 in NE OK, SE KS, and SW MO. This seems most likely along the SFC low track east along the warm front, where wind profiles will favor 150-200 0-1km SRH, ESRH north of 300 m2/s2, and effective bulk shear 45+ knots. While dewpoints likely will be characterized by upper 50s //perhaps pockets of 60 F//, strong lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft look to yield 1500-2000 MLCAPE by late afternoon Tuesday, with little to no inhibition. WIth potent wave approaching from the west and associated 80 knot jet noses into the warm sector/associated DCVA/large-scale ascent combined with convergence along cold front and INVOF sfc low expected to yield initiation of numerous cells. NAM 3k shows initiation of cells invof sfc low and along cold front. Storm mode would likely evolve into a linear mode but a window should exist for discrete supercell activity. Given aforementioned parameters.. A strong/dominant discrete supercell or two certainly seems plausible. Tornado potential would likely be low until early eve when LCLs would begin to lower..assuming storms were still discrete by then. Wind profiles do have quite a look to them with a solid, classically veering profile with height...Worth watching at this point. Not going to post UH tracks, but 3km NAM has some incredibly strong UH output associated with discrete convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 In light of this radar (as of 258am CDT) https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly.php our prayers are with you all down in the great state of Louisiana. That radar does not look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Monitoring moisture trends into NE OK closely for what may be locally enhanced tornado potential near the warm frontal zone today with any discrete supercell in its vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Yeah. if you can get dews up near 60 and pool along the front later today things could get a bit interesting in ne OK. Svr storm watch forthcoming soon per meso discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Svr watch now issued for ne OK with cells progressing northeast.. SPC cautioning that tor risk could increase as storms interact with WF although dews are not that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Tornado warning in Western MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Looks pretty solid from both radar sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Multiple rather serious damage reports coming out of Goodman. Interestingly...no TDS has been indicated on radar. Not sure if perhaps damage could be related to RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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