Quincy Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 Multiple funnel clouds down here, but I haven't seen anything conclusive yet as far as touchdowns. In the Greenwood section at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 TOR warned cell also near Columbia, MO EDIT: Also looks like the current supercell NW of the original, TOR warned one, might need a tornado warning looking better and better, and has also had reports of funnel clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 tornado reported at Raytown at the time of this image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO THROUGH EXTREME ERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 383... VALID 020052Z - 020215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 383 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST OVER NWRN THROUGH WCNTRL MO THROUGH 02Z...AND SEVERE THREAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME DEVELOPMENT INTO EXTREME ERN KS ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PERSIST FROM JUST SE OF KANSAS CITY EWD THROUGH NCNTRL MO. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD TO A WEAK SFC LOW IN NERN KS THEN SWWD THROUGH SCNTRL KS. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN ARK THROUGH SWRN MO INTO SERN KS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND WAS SAMPLED BY SPRINGFIELD MO 00Z RAOB INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES...3400 J/KG MLCAPE...250 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND 40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. STORMS REMAIN PRIMARILY DISCRETE. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS COLD POOLS MERGE AND THE SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUPPORTING A SWD MOVING...FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY BACKBUILD INTO EXTREME ERN KS. ..DIAL.. 07/02/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL CASS COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM CDT... AT 807 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PLEASANT HILL... AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... EAST LYNNE AND STRASBURG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Saw this on FB this morning... Andrew Miller 5 hrs mo-jf-14major storm, 3hour 35minutes 7.19 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 KC area scores a classic northwest flow tornado. If you mentally rotate the upper air charts counter-clockwise 45 degrees, it looks like the ATMO 101 textbook setup. Frankly I'm a little disappointed in myself not going home during a holiday week. Oh well. At least my Facebook feed was very alive last night, with weather for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 June 27th may have been one of the most active tornado days of the year, with tornadoes in Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota. SPC unfiltered reports for this day show 48 tornado reports. Several tornadoes occurred in North Dakota. I believe there were 20 tornadoes in the Grand Forks CWA alone, based on these storm report lists/storm survey reports: http://kamala.cod.edu/nd/latest.nwus53.KFGF.html http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KFGF/1507020315.nous43.html -- NWS Grand Forks -- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1015 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 ..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 06/27/15 TORNADO OUTBREAK ..THREE ADDITIONAL TORNADOES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED AND SURVEYED OVERVIEW NUMEROUS TORNADOES WERE SPAWNED DURING AN OUTBREAK WHICH INITIATED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND MOVED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. MORE THAN A DOZEN TORNADOES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED WITH THIS OUTBREAK IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ADDITIONAL TORNADOES HAVING POSSIBLY OCCURRED ADJACENT COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 4, 2015 Author Share Posted July 4, 2015 Could see some isolated severe storms on either side of the SD/NE border this afternoon. At least based on mesoanalysis, conditions seem more unstable than most progs. Large to very large hail appears to be the most likely hazard. Tomorrow looks messy (#2015ing) with respect to storm mode/evolution. Perhaps the most probable significant threat will be damaging winds/hail via MCS in the evening. The focus is in SD and areas to the immediate east/southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Nice swath of ENH from South Dakota to Western MN, sounds like a solid chance of large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 decently strong mesocyclone at Rushville/Gordon Nebraska (Sheridan County). Perhaps a tornado warning will be soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 possible tornado(es), 91mph wind gust, 80mph wind gust, golf ball size hail in NW Nebraska from that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 509 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT * AT 509 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LIBERTY... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MISSOURI CITY AROUND 520 PM CDT. INDEPENDENCE AROUND 525 PM CDT. BUCKNER AND SIBLEY AROUND 530 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Strong rotation as well near Eudora, KS... West of Kansas city moving east toward the metro at 40mph. TVS on it. EDIT: Was strong rotation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Strong rotation as well near Eudora, KS... West of Kansas city moving east toward the metro at 40mph. TVS on it. TDS on it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 TDS on it too. Tornado reported now... rotation on radar has become rather meh now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 About to have a problem moving into Overland Park. Damage reported in Eudora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 536 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER OLATHE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... LENEXA AROUND 540 PM CDT. OVERLAND PARK AROUND 545 PM CDT. PRAIRIE VILLAGE...MISSION AND COUNTRYSIDE AROUND 550 PM CDT. LEAWOOD AROUND 555 PM CDT. GRANDVIEW AND RAYMORE AROUND 600 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 All of this going on with no tornado risk area in the 20z outlook. I am having an increasingly difficult time believing many of Dial's outlooks. They have been weird for a long time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Two pretty obvious curl's on reflectivity. Possible TDS over Lenexa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Appears that a pretty impressive bow echo is developing across S KS... And might be trying to develop a book-end vortex, but maybe a tad too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 7, 2015 Author Share Posted July 7, 2015 All of this going on with no tornado risk area in the 20z outlook. I am having an increasingly difficult time believing many of Dial's outlooks. They have been weird for a long time now.I thought it was odd given the S to SSE flow ahead of the cold front, strong instability and modest deep layer shear. It wasn't like the setup didn't have at least a marginal tornado threat signal. It wasn't until an MD after the damage that a brief tornado threat was mentioned. We've seen 2% tor probs for weaker signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 A bit of a localized, conditional severe risk tomorrow - most notably around the TX/OK panhandles. A subtle vorticity lobe is progged to move from NE NM/SE CO through the southern High Plains with lee surface cyclogenesis late in the day/evening. Although boundary layer dew-points are rather low at the moment, in the mid-40s to mid-50s across the area, southerly flow beneath a retreating warm front should result in modest to moderate instability reaching the TX panhandle by 00z Thursday. Upper level flow is fairly anemic, but 0-6km shear should be sufficient for supercells and backing of low-level winds should result in sizable hodographs by early evening. A rather modest setup, but one that could result in a few robust supercells. I can see an isolated tornado threat developing, assuming moisture return is considerable enough and shear reaches the levels currently forecast. Storms may merge into a small complex into the evening, posing a marginal damaging wind threat eastward across the panhandles. The way this year has gone, marginal/modest setups like this have been fairly common, although the results have generally been below expectations. I'm not an expert on climo for the panhandles, but I would venture to assume this is rather late in the season for a setup this far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 I find it a bit odd that the panhandle watch has <5% probs for 2+ tornadoes. I can't say I expect a bunch, but the environment looks increasingly favorable between AMA and LBB by 00-02z, IF storms can remain discrete. Dew-points are well into the 60s with backing low-level flow and moderate instability. Further north, the storms have already formed a line segment and may only pose a marginally severe hail risk with a higher likelihood of damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Currently have a trio of intense supercells ongoing across the Texas panhandle. All are producing large to very large hail. The storm that passed over Channing dropped baseball sized-hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Currently have a trio of intense supercells ongoing across the Texas panhandle. All are producing large to very large hail. The storm that passed over Channing dropped baseball sized-hail. Definitely some low-altitude rotation seen by KAMA radar. I am impressed, considering that sometimes the supercell threat is quite low in July down there. I saw the report of the baseball-size hail. Ouch. This time of year, it's the time for watching baseball games, not getting baseball hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Several reliable storm chasers reported a brief cone tornado near the Potter/Oldham county line around 820 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 3 great looking supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Tomorrow's setup isn't all that much different from today. If anything, somewhat stronger instability, but forcing may be slightly weaker. I'd expect a similar outcome, although the storm mode and motion may be more on the messy side. Same area too, with storms firing over northeastern New Mexico and moving toward/into the Texas panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Today looks like another marginal day, but across North Central and Northeast KS possibly extending down into C/SC KS. Could get a few supercells to develop along the WF with damaging winds, some hail, and maybe a tornado due to impressive turning with height, but speed shear is marginal really with 0-6KM Shear progged at AOA 25-35kts across NE KS, and possibly 35-45kts across NC KS... Moderate to strong instability should be built INVOF the warm-front and areas south, with around 2000-3000J/KG MUCAPE with localized maxes along the warm front... Meanwhile a subtle short wave should move into the area around 20Z or so and kick of a round of thunderstorms some of which could pose the severe threats above. FWIW, the 4K NAM (which is a bit of an outlier with this solution compared to SSEO guidance) has an impressive cluster/bow-echo developing across NC KS by 20Z and sustaining till about 03-04Z/Saturday when it has weakened near the KS/MO border. However latest iterations of the HRRR (not that is really that reliable) have shown widespread convection developing as soon as 17-19Z across C KS S/SW'ward into NW/W OK which would probably put more of a lid on the already marginal severe threat, and lead to more of a moderate/heavy rainfall threat given PWAT's of ~2 inches, and the NW/SW orientation of the broken "line." But that seem less probable than the current thinking of isolated/scattered TSTM's/some SVR along the WF, but not out of the question given the ejection of the S/W around 18-21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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