Quincy Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 I figured a threat like this would be helpful for filling in the gaps between larger events, particularly when small-scale threats may pop up. Aka, sleeper days. Also with the heavy rainfall over the past few weeks, we could lump some flooding discussion in here too. Thursday appears to have some potential, even if it is over a rather focused part of western Texas along the dryline. I've been watching the models trends over the past couple of runs and there seems to be at least a marginal threat developing. There's a perturbation/vorticity maximum forecast to swing from eastern NM into western TX Thursday evening. At the surface, modest heating is projected to result in at least 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE. 0-6km shear appears to be around 30 knots, which is modest, but probably enough for at least some supercell potential. While the mid and upper level winds look rather weak, an increasing LLJ and backing winds by late-day may aid in developing a small tornado window around 00-03z Friday. The NAM/RGEM appeared more favorable than the GFS here, but even the GFS isn't that far off. The GFS shear values are slightly lower though. As far as today is concerned, more locally heavy rain has fallen across much of the southern Plains. Most of that was along or east of I-35 by mid-afternoon. Some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are forming to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Nice tor for a lull day https://twitter.com/jwhittaltwn/status/598633381690089473 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Nice tor for a lull day https://twitter.com/jwhittaltwn/status/598633381690089473I was just about to post that. A nice catch. The atmosphere was able to recover enough. The thought of northwest Texas actually crossed my mind, but I didn't pull the trigger. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 I didn't even look. Gooooo May! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 14, 2015 Author Share Posted May 14, 2015 I didn't even look. Gooooo May!This pattern will produce. It's just a matter of how much and where. May working some of its magic for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Friday and Saturday Nebraska, Kansas, W Oklahoma, and Texas gonna get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Smokey- Stop posting. You add nothing of value and no one has ever responded to your comments. Just follow along and look for pertinent info for your area to stay aware as many other people do. Hopefully your precious soccer games don't get rained out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Well thankfully we didn't get the monsoon called for entirely today none the less some hefty rain here for a bit though so that should help with flood waters easing on the rivers. Still concerned about this weekend especially if we get training storms and a bunch of boundaries everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 You worried about flooding or severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 You worried about flooding or severe weather? More flooding than anything as I'm not so sure about the severe weather aspect as I'm not that great reading model data, let alone trusting them this year. I think we could see a bit of both, last weekend we had our surprises and could very well see that happen again depending on how overnight convection goes. Instability and moisture will certainly be there along with the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Nebraska and Kansas are about 1/2 filled with light rain. It's just amazing how many rain events have happened on the plains. Maybe we could even get rid of some of the drought in Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 14, 2015 Author Share Posted May 14, 2015 Convection is firing from SE New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Driven by some subtle forcing aloft. The surface winds remain rather backed at SSE to SE near and just north of I-20 west of Abilene. There's actually been moderate destabilization with >2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Stronger shear is moving in, as its marginal at best at the moment. The main threat appears to be large hail, as LCLs are still rather high and the boundary layer flow is meager. However, as the low-level jet ramps up by late afternoon/early evening, there could be some isolated tornado potential, particularly with any discrete cells in vicinity of a mesolow/locally backed surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 W TX setup on Tuesday looks to hold some potential with any decent amount of destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Pretty spectacular sounding from AMA @ 00z Wed from the 12z NAM (with supercells in the area as well). Will start a thread on this later if some consistency is shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 NWS Norman tweeted this about Oklahoma City: May 2015 may set the record for the wettest month since records began in late 1890. Already at # 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Interesting data for my town. 13.84" of rain for the month of May in Fort Smith as of 7am. That is a NEW RECORD for most rain during the month of May on record. Wow.. If we get 3.80" more, it will be the wettest spring ever recorded since record keeping began back in 1883. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Garrett-Lewis/288279856331 https://www.facebook.com/5NEWSJoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 National Weather Service Forecast Discussion today talking about the potential for catastrophic flooding in SE Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas if the heaviest rain this weekend occurs along and south of I40. If you live in this area, pay close attention to the forecast in the coming days, especially if you'll be outdoors for the Memorial Day holiday in the Ouachitas where flash flooding can literally occur in less than an hour in valleys. Another 3-5" on top of the recent rainfall will cause major river flooding and many roads could become impassable. Too early to know right now, and the models are actually shifting the heaviest axis closer to Northwest Arkansas which didn't see the super heavy rain last night but don't let your guard down from Sallisaw to Fort Smith to Clarksville and south to Waldron, Poteau, & Talihina. It could get really bad if the heaviest rain this weekend falls in these places. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Garrett-Lewis/288279856331 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 4.51" in an hour at Corpus Christi Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 If this verifies, there will be catastrophic flooding. The rivers and creeks have been out of the banks for awhile given what we already had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 From OUN: Not sure why the hydrograph currently has a different forecast: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=oun&gage=WICT2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 GFS/NAM are focused on a big time soaking for south central TX-one big round late Sat into Sun, then another Monday night. We have a lot more capacity for excess rain than N TX/OK, but 6"+ rain over this period would still cause some major problems and flash floods on the creeks that flow through much of Austin. There's also a severe risk with the late Saturday/Sun event due to the trough digging pretty far south and the potential for supercells/tornadoes if there can be any clearing during the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 12Z NAM (6/10) expands Thursday area of interest south to the KS/OK border. We'll see what SPC thinks in about an hour. Friday looks like SLGT not MRGL, but we'll see. GFS concurs on wind fields but not qpf; I tend to favor hi-res NAM for qpf. Thursday still looks ok in Iowa but storm mode and ongoing rain will be challenges. Shortwave timing is also an issue, but low level turning should remain near OFBs. Now appears new shortwave ejects into High Plains in time Thursday afternoon, with no midday rain. Cap may hold in the TX Panhandle. Hailers may develop but a hot 700 mb looks to kill them shortly after 00Z. Meanwhile DL and SF intersect in southwest Kansas, under slightly less of a cap. Synoptic front must act as stationary or warm; a CF surge would destroy that set-up. Low level shear is less than ideal, but looks like 50kt+ upstairs. Could a boundary intersection get the job done? Friday looks complicated. Upper shear relaxes a bit, but an upper low sits over CO/NM. One would expect downstream agitation in the Panhandles. CF surge remains a risk; however, low press appears to promote better low level wind backing. It is the Panhandle in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 11, 2015 Author Share Posted June 11, 2015 Friday looks complicated. Upper shear relaxes a bit, but an upper low sits over CO/NM. One would expect downstream agitation in the Panhandles. CF surge remains a risk; however, low press appears to promote better low level wind backing. It is the Panhandle in June.Despite the wind fields aloft not being terribly impressive, low-level shear and instability (via NAM) look strong enough to support some supercells, if storms can remain discrete. New 12z analog guidance showed at least 50% of similar setups produced one or more tornadoes in the Texas panhandle. The threat would probably extend east into western Oklahoma if the latest data is correct. FWIW, the analog guidance would suggest a SLGT to ENH risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 50/20 TOR probs on the TOR watch across SE NE/ NW MO/ SW IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Several storms are developing in the tornado watch area now. They all seem fairly ordinary, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Several storms are developing in the tornado watch area now. They all seem fairly ordinary, though. 20Z SPC D1SWO added a small ten percent TOR prob across the watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Two tornado warnings, one in far SW IA the other in far NW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Greensburg, KS getting hit by 3 inch hail attm, at least according to radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 HRRR is advertising a relatively long squall line in TX and OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 HRRR is advertising a relatively long squall line in TX and OK.Looks like an initial risk for severe storms in western Texas quickly transitioning to more of a flash flood/damaging wind threat after dark via MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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