tornadotony Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 It's time for everyone to R-E-L-A-X. First off, showing multiple streaks of >100 UH in an environment of 10+ STP doesn't qualify as "not really showing too much" (especially SW/srn OK). Secondly, look at the environment right now. SE of the current convection, you have mid-60s dewpoints, SE winds, steepening lapse rates, and increasing low-level flow. In the convective region, the radial velocity structure of that line segment W over Alva indicates to me that it's probably driven by a gravity wave, not by a cold pool. You still have a cool, stable layer in place at the surface, but when you have convection like this, it tends to be associated with surface stable layers that are very shallow. These stable layers, and the boundaries at their interfaces, are often among those most likely to be associated with enhancement of tornado risk. Good examples are 4/27/11 across NE MS and N AL and 6/30/14 across N IL and N IN. The HRRR has had an extremely persistent signal of a major discrete cell with high-end updraft helicity in the Gage/Woodward/Alva/Medicine Lodge/Hutchinson corridor. I see no reason why a cell or cells in that area would not have the chance to be significantly, if not violently, tornadic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 18z OUN: NSHARP version: Other midday soundings: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/15051618_OBS/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Storms are firing east of Lubbock now. These are gonna track into SW Oklahoma over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Decent couplet forming S of Clarendon, TX. That could be a cell to watch over the next few scans. Nice hail spike on radar also there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 It's time for everyone to R-E-L-A-X. First off, showing multiple streaks of >100 UH in an environment of 10+ STP doesn't qualify as "not really showing too much" (especially SW/srn OK). Secondly, look at the environment right now. SE of the current convection, you have mid-60s dewpoints, SE winds, steepening lapse rates, and increasing low-level flow. In the convective region, the radial velocity structure of that line segment W over Alva indicates to me that it's probably driven by a gravity wave, not by a cold pool. You still have a cool, stable layer in place at the surface, but when you have convection like this, it tends to be associated with surface stable layers that are very shallow. These stable layers, and the boundaries at their interfaces, are often among those most likely to be associated with enhancement of tornado risk. Good examples are 4/27/11 across NE MS and N AL and 6/30/14 across N IL and N IN. The HRRR has had an extremely persistent signal of a major discrete cell with high-end updraft helicity in the Gage/Woodward/Alva/Medicine Lodge/Hutchinson corridor. I see no reason why a cell or cells in that area would not have the chance to be significantly, if not violently, tornadic. Seems like people have forgotten that this stuff requires PATIENCE. Currently, the atmosphere is recharging and the parameters are coming into place. Latest soundings have looked good. I'd give this another 1-2hrs before jumping to conclusions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 I was simply interpreting the run verbatim re early HRRR. Clearly the high moisture and low lcl environment given the rest is quite favorable. I've been on board with an outbreak for like a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Can someone tell me, or show me, what an ideal sounding would look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Rain rates on that storm west of Memphis are incredible. David Drummond driving through it currently and it's practically misty with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Seems like people have forgotten that this stuff requires PATIENCE. Currently, the atmosphere is recharging and the parameters are coming into place. Latest soundings have looked good. I'd give this another 1-2hrs before jumping to conclusions... I wouldn't necessarily say so. OUN shows very weak directional shear at 18Z (much less than at 12Z) due to a more unidirectional wind profile at 700-500 mb. That will need to change, and I currently expect it to do so, but currently the profile over C OK is unfavorable for long-lived discrete supercells. For a widespread outbreak, outflow boundaries alone won't cut it, but backed low-level winds will also help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Cell S of Claredon, TX heading towards Hedley, TX now tornado warned but couplet on radar has decreased in intensity from the previous 3 scans. Looks to be cycling as it begins to enter a more favorable environment for tornado development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Can someone tell me, or show me, what an ideal sounding would look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 I wouldn't necessarily say so. OUN shows very weak directional shear at 18Z (much less than at 12Z) due to a more unidirectional wind profile at 700-500 mb. That will need to change, and I currently expect it to do so, but currently the profile over C OK is unfavorable for long-lived discrete supercells. For a widespread outbreak, outflow boundaries alone won't cut it, but backed low-level winds will also help. Huh? Low level directional shear significantly increased vs the 12z sounding and also less VBV above 700 mb. How is the above in any way less favorable than this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Cell S of Claredon, TX heading towards Hedley, TX now tornado warned but couplet on radar has decreased in intensity from the previous 3 scans. Looks to be cycling as it begins to enter a more favorable environment for tornado development. Couplet hasn't really weakened. It was being contaminated by multiple-trip echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 You just passed me Tsnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Couplet hasn't really weakened. It was being contaminated by multiple-trip echoes. Agreed, didnt account for that.. Thanks for the clarification Tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 100+ mph G2G shear on last scan on the cell near Hedley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 TWC said spotters saw a rotating cloud of debris on the Hedley cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Looks like a TDS on CC scan or the beginnings of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 just saw what appeared to be a power flash on Wesley Luginbhal's stream on TVN (sorry for the mispelling) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Looks like a TDS on CC scan or the beginnings of one. That's not a TDS...that's either some dust/dirt in the inflow region or perhaps (since it is under some reflectivity) some errant hail stones being tossed out of the E edge of the hail core. The lower CC values are not under the rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 david drummond had a nice wall cloud and lowering and was saying he could see debris on the ground but it quickly became rain wrapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 That's not a TDS...that's either some dust/dirt in the inflow region or perhaps (since it is under some reflectivity) some errant hail stones being tossed out of the E edge of the hail core. The lower CC values are not under the rotation. Nope looks like it was a forming TDS per the following scan.. Also line up well with circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Supercells and supercell-like structures are firing up all over the Texas panhandle. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Does not line up with the circulation at the posted time above (1933z)...thus not a TDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Does not line up with the circulation at the posted time above (1933z)...thus not a TDS. Agree to disagree.. They are within a mile or so and the scans weren't taken at the exact same moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Agree to disagree.. They are within a mile or so and the scans weren't taken at the exact same moment. This isn't really a debatable subject. That low rho-hv is from the sharp SNR gradient due to the very high reflectivity in the hail core/FFD, as well as inflow into the storm, not due to tornado debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Supercells and supercell-like structures are firing up all over the Texas panhandle. Game on. Cells heading for Childress starting to look nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 This isn't really a debatable subject. That low rho-hv is from the sharp SNR gradient due to the very high reflectivity in the hail core/FFD, as well as inflow into the storm, not due to tornado debris.Interesting that spotters were reporting debris on the ground. Oh well doesn't really matter because it was short lived. Looks to have developed another possible TDS heading for Shamrock, TX but i'll wait for experts here to confirm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EquusStorm Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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