David Reimer Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 The Torrington, WY tornado was a massive wedge near town... VIDEO: https://www.facebook.com/casey.blevins.9/videos/10200661884107442/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2015 Author Share Posted May 16, 2015 Well the 00z 4 km NAM depicts what would likely be a tornado outbreak across OK tomorrow afternoon/evening. Multiple supercells in an environment with 0-1 km EHI of 4-6 and 0-6 km shear of 50-65 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 If there isn't some massive cold pool in place over wrn OK and central KS after midday tomorrow, there will probably be a significant tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 00Z NAM soundings across W KS/OK are very impressive... In KS, you have better backing of the SFC flow, but have more of an issue with VBV... in Oklahoma you have slightly less backing of SFC flow but less of issue with VBV. And even then VBV isn't that much of an issue in all the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 CIPS top analog is May 3rd 99, just for the hell of it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 This WRF model performed relatively well last weekend (all things considered). http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/nmmwrf.mxuphl_animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2015 Author Share Posted May 16, 2015 I've seen several models wanting to put a supercell through OKC/vicinity tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Fire wx NAM, for those interested: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 I've seen several models wanting to put a supercell through OKC/vicinity tomorrow.Those same models have been pretty consistent in that scenario for several model runs/days... In any event, much of western/central OK is about to have a dangerous day ahead... KS target is a bit more conditional imo due to morning convection... But models have remained consistent with much of OK recovering no matter what, and with much of OK really not seeing much in the way of morning convection really anyways. Tornado Outbreak seems like a pretty decent possibility at least across Oklahoma, and possibly KS. I'm interested to see the SPC's thoughts in the next D1SWO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 I've seen several models wanting to put a supercell through OKC/vicinity tomorrow. At this point, I don't need a model to tell me that's going to happen, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2015 Author Share Posted May 16, 2015 GFS ramped up the instability too for tomorrow, to add on to the growing "watch out" consensus of the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 For the love of all that's holy... please no open warm sector storms invof I-35 tomorrow. Last Wed (5/6) just reminded me of why I told myself after chases like 31 May 2013 that it's more painful to attempt chasing these metro events than just to have a non-event or bust. Love that SPC WRF depiction focused across W OK and SW KS. Fun little fact that OKC area chasers can never forget, but some may not realize: the last true multi-storm dryline tornado outbreak focused on W OK was 9 October 2001. Let that sink in for a minute, after looking at any sort of long-term tornado climatology. Last week when Fri 5/8 and Sat 5/9 looked so incredible on the models, my friend and I remarked "well, we know it has to find a way to fall apart because W OK is ground zero." That was already a joke 7 or 8 years ago when we first started chasing seriously, and it's never failed yet. One of these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2015 Author Share Posted May 16, 2015 Regarding current convection, I see one area organizing into an MCS from Friona to Sudan in TX, with everything else looking fairly disorganized, maybe a small MCS coming out of the cluster NW of Midland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 I will be playing the southern end of the threat area in north Texas again tomorrow. Hoping to at least make it to Mineral Wells for lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 The general consensus has been for a S-N weakening of morning precip/convection. Of course, this could be out to lunch, but that would give OK plenty of time to destabilize while limiting the southward extend of airmass contamination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Regarding current convection, I see one area organizing into an MCS from Friona to Sudan in TX, with everything else looking fairly disorganized, maybe a small MCS coming out of the cluster NW of Midland. fwiw, 4KM NAM is doing a fabulous job thus far handling convection in E NM and W/NW TX... Showing the little complex over the OK/TX panhandle and two mini bows/clusters along the NM/TX border further south... Even slightly to the east of where the 00Z run showed it would be at 05Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Seems most of the hi res models signal higher end potential. Overall this one has trended better into gametime vs last go. Were still clearing the main zone last week around noon.. HRRR (yeah end run, but has friends) gets anything out of there much earlier and goes to town after. Mod tor with first update or wait till morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Allegedly the Torrington/Goshen Co. WY tornado from this afternoon: https://www.facebook.com/casey.blevins.9/videos/10200661884107442/?__mref=message_bubble Going to end up being the best May since 2004 probably if you look strictly at the number of days on which it was technically possible to see something awesome in good terrain on the Plains. Difficulty level? Not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2015 Author Share Posted May 16, 2015 Allegedly the Torrington/Goshen Co. WY tornado from this afternoon: https://www.facebook.com/casey.blevins.9/videos/10200661884107442/?__mref=message_bubble Going to end up being the best May since 2004 probably if you look strictly at the number of days on which it was technically possible to see something awesome in good terrain on the Plains. Difficulty level? Not so much. Bump... Cell reminds me of the Windsor, CO storm from 5/22/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Seems likely that the ongoing convection/MCS will be substantially less detrimental to tomorrow's event than it was last Saturday (which obviously ain't saying a lot). This should be more of a traditional significant-but-flawed late-season event with concerns over the timing of recovery/backing of surface winds, and the meridional/VBV issues in some areas. I'll take that at this point. Latest HRRR wants to initiate the main show along the DL by 19z-20z, which probably isn't worth taking too literally at this range -- but if that comes to pass, I'm concerned low-level shear will be suboptimal for the first couple hours of mature supercell life cycles. If initiation awaits the 21-22z timeframe and mode can remain truly discrete through dusk, I'd expect a couple significant tornadoes for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2015 Author Share Posted May 16, 2015 Seems likely that the ongoing convection/MCS will be substantially less detrimental to tomorrow's event than it was last Saturday (which obviously ain't saying a lot). This should be more of a traditional significant-but-flawed late-season event with concerns over the timing of recovery/backing of surface winds, and the meridional/VBV issues in some areas. I'll take that at this point. Latest HRRR wants to initiate the main show along the DL by 19z-20z, which probably isn't worth taking too literally at this range -- but if that comes to pass, I'm concerned low-level shear will be suboptimal for the first couple hours of mature supercell life cycles. If initiation awaits the 21-22z timeframe and mode can remain truly discrete through dusk, I'd expect a couple significant tornadoes for sure. Not sure I fully agree with the late-season categorization given the strength of this trough and associated mid/upper level wind fields is significantly stronger than any event you'd expect to see on a more regular basis in late May/early June (not sure what span of time you are using for defining late-season though). Concern about low level jet strength early on is valid, although localized low level backing may cause additional enhancements to low level shear. Can't say I wouldn't expect it either given the SLP tendencies with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Big Mod risk, from S NE to N TX. 15% hatched tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Would honestly not be surprised if part of that mdt risk area gets upgraded early or late morning, pending overnight/morning convective evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Not sure I fully agree with the late-season categorization given the strength of this trough and associated mid/upper level wind fields is significantly stronger than any event you'd expect to see on a more regular basis in late May/early June (not sure what span of time you are using for defining late-season though). Concern about low level jet strength early on is valid, although localized low level backing may cause additional enhancements to low level shear. Can't say I wouldn't expect it either given the SLP tendencies with time. To clarify: by "late-season" I was mainly referring to the thermodynamic characteristics, where overnight convection can modulate but usually not completely decimate a setup (with last week's setups being pretty anomalous for May in TX/OK). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Would honestly not be surprised if part of that mdt risk area gets upgraded early or late morning, pending overnight/morning convective evolution.That discussion certainly had the feel of a high risk discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 large 15% hatched area for tornado probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Would honestly not be surprised if part of that mdt risk area gets upgraded early or late morning, pending overnight/morning convective evolution. Trends in model output and the wording in that discussion had me thinking the exact same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2015 Author Share Posted May 16, 2015 To clarify: by "late-season" I was mainly referring to the thermodynamic characteristics, where overnight convection can modulate but usually not completely decimate a setup (with last week's setups being pretty anomalous for May in TX/OK). Ah, ok, makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 when I saw how large the moderate risk was even before reading the disco, I thought yeah, this is looking like today could be the high risk day that we've been looking for. i'm not chasing today but if I was, I would put my target starting point somewhere around OKC to monitor and then go from there. I think locally for the metroplex I don't see a huge severe weather threat, maybe hail and winds, hoping that today does not produce tornadoes over populated areas of Oklahoma and Kansas that's for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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