andyhb Posted May 15, 2015 Author Share Posted May 15, 2015 Seeing a lot of VBV wind profiles with Saturday on the 00z NAM, although the instability appears to have improved. The trough needs to broaden a bit and/or the ridging downstream needs to be a bit less amplified to keep the mid/upper flow more southwesterly and eliminate that kink in the hodograph around 700 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Tomorrow may get a little interesting tomorrow from Fort Collins to Casper, with possible initial storms rolling off the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Current CIPS top analog for Saturday night is 4/15/2012/00z, which was the tornado outbreak of 4/14/2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Really have to wonder about storm initiation today, even near the triple point. Yet another event this season that seemingly had big potential, but became less and less interesting leading up. Making my way up eastern Colorado later today. Those in central/eastern Nebraska may not see much at all, but maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Really have to wonder about storm initiation today, even near the triple point. Yet another event this season that seemingly had big potential, but became less and less interesting leading up. Making my way up eastern Colorado later today. Those in central/eastern Nebraska may not see much at all, but maybe I'm wrong. ? There will almost certainly be storm initiation near the triple point (which is right up against the high terrain). Looks like a pretty decent setup for SE WY / NW NE. Best way to alleviate questions about convective initiation is to plow convectively unstable flow into mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Yeah I wouldn't worry too much about storms forming.. more about them congealing or messing out. Pine Bluffs or so seems like a logical starting point.. SW NE favored.. moving into NW NE with time. South of the NE/CO border got some big spreads on t/td.. need to be close to WF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 We are on the way to Nebraska currently...models seem to be struggling on CI in the heart of the state a little further east, possibly from the lack of convergence which makes sense...obviously the upslope play will go early and should be okay but we can't get there and would take us out of position for tomorrow...which looks quite scary for srn KS down to CDS/LAW area. Will continue to push west to Kearney/North Platte, hoping storms can go in extreme northeast CO and push our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 The HRRR runs this morning show a fairly messy situation for SE Wyoming this afternoon-- too many showers and thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 The HRRR runs this morning show a fairly messy situation for SE Wyoming this afternoon-- too many showers and thunderstorms.Yep. Poorly worded on my part. Questionable initiation along the dryline and messy storm mode (lack of discrete storm initiation) near the surface low combine to yield a low confidence/iffy setup today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Tomorrow's a tough forecast. You can't just take what happened last weekend and automatically apply it here. The upper-level flow pattern is likely going to retard eastward motion of early convection. Any significant eastward propagation will be due to cold pool propagation. This may act in limiting the amount of area that needs to recover by late afternoon. If the warm sector is in good shape, then tomorrow has the potential to get really ugly from central KS down into western OK. But, as has been beaten like a dead horse, that's a big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Really have to wonder about storm initiation today, even near the triple point. Yet another event this season that seemingly had big potential, but became less and less interesting leading up. Making my way up eastern Colorado later today. Those in central/eastern Nebraska may not see much at all, but maybe I'm wrong. You could have lunch with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 You could have lunch with me.Fort Collins or will you be out in the field today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 I'm not driving anywhere if it is just going to be boring rain or weak thunderstorms. Previously I was thinking of sitting around east of Cheyenne at a gas station on I-80 and looking at the sky. I have cancelled that idea, until further notice. One time, a couple of years ago, I drove out east of Greeley and Kersey to see if I could get close to a reasonably interesting thunderstorm. Near Kersey, there is cattle/sheep yard that was 1.5 miles long that smells pretty bad... I'm hoping not to repeat that experience too soon. Note. I am seeing the Denver cyclone set up with a surface circulation north of DIA (Adams/Weld Co). It's all in the 50's with dew points around 48. There's no extremely dry area, as of yet. Pine Bluffs WY has 100% humidity. You don't see that too much on the high plains if it isn't snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 I'm not driving anywhere if it is just going to be boring rain or weak thunderstorms. Previously I was thinking of sitting around east of Cheyenne at a gas station on I-80 and looking at the sky. I have cancelled that idea, until further notice. Note. I am seeing the Denver cyclone set up with a surface circulation north of DIA (Adams/Weld Co). It's all in the 50's with dew points around 48. There's no extremely dry area, as of yet. With the HRRR hinting at a palmer divide initiation, and the denver cyclone setting up, I may consider driving southeast toward Greeley (or a little bit south) to catch any supercells moving NE off the high terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 The lower temps/dews didn't seem to deter things last Saturday. Factor in upslope with good wind shear, a bit of instability and a developing surface low in NE Colorado and that seems to get the job done. I stayed in Lamar and am heading north now, so it's go big or go home. Nicely backed winds near the CO/NE border. I'll let it play out and see. It could be a junky mess or more upslope magic. Some of you guys know the local influences and climo much better. Just going off what I've observed so far this season in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 The lower temps/dews didn't seem to deter things last Saturday. These dew points on the high plains are pretty above normal. Combine that with the 500mb cold temps, and you have 2000 J/kg of CAPE in northeast Colorado, even before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 1730Z update came in... For the first time mentioned intense long-lived supercells, with very large hail and strong tornadoes... Expanded the ENH risked as well.. Also mentions that the large scale pattern (as you would expect) favors a more substantial severe weather outbreak than currently depicted by the outlook. And fwiw, this wasn't Broyles so it wasn't trigger happy. Sorry can't post the graphics or discussion, on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 We are on the way to Nebraska currently...models seem to be struggling on CI in the heart of the state a little further east, possibly from the lack of convergence which makes sense...obviously the upslope play will go early and should be okay but we can't get there and would take us out of position for tomorrow...which looks quite scary for srn KS down to CDS/LAW area. Will continue to push west to Kearney/North Platte, hoping storms can go in extreme northeast CO and push our way. Safe travels TSnow....i wish you the best of luck on your trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 I'm going to head to OKC this evening. Considered waiting till tomorrow morning to leave CS but honestly I don't know what info I'd have tomorrow morning that I don't have now. The real info won't come until later in the day when we see what the situation is out further west and from OKC I can reach a lot more of the dryline. I am convinced that there will areas, if not the entire dry line, where instability is high enough to get things going so I'd rather be in a position to reach as much of that dry line as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Denver Cyclone is a good play today. ENH area is over a crazy road network and the Sand Hills of Nebraska. Denver Cyclone play also permits easy access back toward Saturday area. Well at least it is a little closer and one can fly east on I-70 this evening. Adams and Arapohoe Counties already severe warned. Classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 something bad may have happened to KFTG radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Denver Cyclone is a good play today. SPC forgot to outlook Bennett Colorado as a 100% chance of having a tornado warning within 25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 something bad may have happened to KFTG radarTOG 8 miles north of Bennett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 KPUX radar seeing some rotation with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Several tornado warnings in south TX today. Corpus Christi actually reported "Tornado/Waterspout" last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 TDEN radar has a good view of the tornado warned storm ENE of Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Damage was reported to a TPCO plant near Gregory, Texas by apparent tornado. 3 people have been injured. Per twitter and TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Photogenic cone with blue sky behind it halfway between KDEN and Ft. Morgan. 2015 "The Year of the Chasecationer" rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 The storm around Platteville CO has taken a curl to it. It got tornado warned for a funnel cloud. It's such a small cell, it's 2 miles wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 North of Fort Morgan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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