PB GFI Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Models showing another strong WWB and plummeting SOI. This will assure that the Nino does not peak until sometime in December, most likely mid December or shortly thereafter The SOI is not plummeting. Look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Models showing another strong WWB and plummeting SOI. This will assure that the Nino does not peak until sometime in December, most likely mid December or shortly thereafter I don't see a WWB... nonetheless a strong one. I see a weakening of trade winds... not even close to a "strong WWB" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 The SOI is not plummeting. Look again. it was on the plus side again today...around this time of the year 1997 had a week of plus soi and it fell to near record levels again...this year is anyone's guess at this point..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 it was on the plus side again today...around this time of the year 1997 had a week of plus soi and it fell to near record levels again...this year is anyone's guess at this point..... The last 30 days are minus 7 ( which is Neutral ) . It is still minus 7 because of the deep NEGs in the last week of OCT . The month of NOVEMBER are adding to the values and are not Plummeting . The SOI did plummet in Aug Sept and Oct , but not NOV . https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 The SOI is not plummeting. Look again. https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/667356175818690560 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/667356175818690560 https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 I don't see a WWB... nonetheless a strong one. I see a weakening of trade winds... not even close to a "strong WWB" . https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/667597429051527168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 . https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/667597429051527168 Far from a strong WWB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I don't see a WWB... nonetheless a strong one. I see a weakening of trade winds... not even close to a "strong WWB" The slowing of the trades is starting to take a more "fragmented" look. And the forecasted slowing of the trades is far less impressive than what we saw earlier in October and in September. That with the SOI surging to positive values makes me think that peak is extremely close, or has already been attained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 The slowing of the trades is starting to take a more "fragmented" look. And the forecasted slowing of the trades is far less impressive than what we saw earlier in October and in September. That with the SOI surging to positive values makes me think that peak is extremely close, or has already been attained. Yeah once this Kelvin wave is done, so is the Nino. I doubt the upcoming "westerlies" is going to make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Maintaining this magnitude of equatorial heat is somewhat akin to maintaining a category 4-5 hurricane for a protracted period -- namely, it's very difficult to sustain such anomalous SST's, and even "weaker" westerly wind bursts will result in either a plateauing or slight decrease in heat content. My guess is that this week is the climax of the ENSO event; however, we will plateau and generally maintain very warm anomalies through December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 The fact that we are or will peak within the next week or so is definitely good news. Most winter forecast were calling for a mid December to mid January peak. Now its a matter of how fast she collapses! Either way, this fits right in there with a very wintry second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 Maintaining this magnitude of equatorial heat is somewhat akin to maintaining a category 4-5 hurricane for a protracted period -- namely, it's very difficult to sustain such anomalous SST's, and even "weaker" westerly wind bursts will result in either a plateauing or slight decrease in heat content. My guess is that this week is the climax of the ENSO event; however, we will plateau and generally maintain very warm anomalies through December.On today's TAO, there is now evidence of the subsurface cold pool just starting to nudge east, this is usually the first indication that a Nino is getting ready to peak. Probably within 2 weeks or so, the peak will come. Got to agree with PBGFI, another 2 weeks (early December) and it's done strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Models showing another strong WWB and plummeting SOI. This will assure that the Nino does not peak until sometime in December, most likely mid December or shortly thereafter On today's TAO, there is now evidence of the subsurface cold pool just starting to nudge east, this is usually the first indication that a Nino is getting ready to peak. Probably within 2 weeks or so, the peak will come. Got to agree with PBGFI, another 2 weeks (early December) and it's done strengthening. Make up your mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 Make up your mindI changed my thoughts after I looked at the TAO. I think that was implicit in my 2nd post. There was no need for you to make this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I changed my thoughts after I looked at the TAO. I think that was implicit in my 2nd post. There was no need for you to make this post I assumed you would've thought to look at the TAO before you claim a mid-December peak. I think that's a reasonable assumption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Regardless if the peak is 1 week or 2 weeks away etc , Region 3 and 3.4 stay above plus 2C going into the 1st week of Jan . So it maintains its strong status through Dec . This will not just magically disintegrate, this event was massive . What ( some ) of us want to see is the collapse in 1.2 faster than the central basin so the warmth relative to averages remain out west. You can see the models bleed the heat off in all regions quickly but that is something I want to see 1st before I believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 GFS and Euro ensembles have the death vortex showing up by day 10. Such a classic early winter-Nino look. Feels surreal to see this kind of pattern after spending so many months forecasting and tracking this Nino. It's gonna be just as weird to watch it collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 The slowing of the trades is starting to take a more "fragmented" look. And the forecasted slowing of the trades is far less impressive than what we saw earlier in October and in September. That with the SOI surging to positive values makes me think that peak is extremely close, or has already been attained. Blame that MJO pulse for the positive SOI. The high pressure cell is shifted further east away from Darwin due to the MJO forcing it eastward. Once the MJO collapses, expect the SOI to return to its formal El Niño base state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Blame that MJO pulse for the positive SOI. The high pressure cell is shifted further east away from Darwin due to the MJO forcing it eastward. Once the MJO collapses, expect the SOI to return to its formal El Niño base state. No doubt about that. But such an MJO pulse isn't very usual for such a strong El Niño. 30 day base state is actually into neutral ENSO territory now (+/-8). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Great analysis in here. Thoroughly enjoy reading all your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 No doubt about that. But such an MJO pulse isn't very usual for such a strong El Niño. 30 day base state is actually into neutral ENSO territory now (+/-8). I suspect that the warmer than normal Indian Ocean was responsible for spawning that MJO. If only it could cool down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 I suspect that the warmer than normal Indian Ocean was responsible for spawning that MJO. If only it could cool down... I'd just assume keep it warm....I'm fine with peaking this bad Larry peaking a bit early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Another (general audiences) article about the El Nino: http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/el-ni%C3%B1o-explained-why-this-years-could-be-one-of-the-strongest-on-record/ar-BBlOjez?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=SK2EDHP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 More evidence on the TAO today of the subsurface cold pool pushing east. My guess, another 2 weeks of warming and a final peak come early December. A weekly max peak of +3.1C or +3.2C for region 3.4 seems very likely right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 23, 2015 Author Share Posted November 23, 2015 Blame that MJO pulse for the positive SOI. The high pressure cell is shifted further east away from Darwin due to the MJO forcing it eastward. Once the MJO collapses, expect the SOI to return to its formal El Niño base state.Which is exactly why the SOI is forecasted to drop negative again, the MJO wave is dying as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 More evidence on the TAO today of the subsurface cold pool pushing east. My guess, another 2 weeks of warming and a final peak come early December. A weekly max peak of +3.1C or +3.2C for region 3.4 seems very likely right nowAnd the Euro had it getting to +3.2 as far back as its forecasts from the summer so no one should be surprised. Now I just hope its winter forecast is just as good. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Most regions edge up a little more increasing the magnitude of the new weekly record in 3.4 and 4. 11NOV2015 2.0 3.0 3.0 1.718NOV2015 2.1 3.0 3.1 1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Most regions edge up a little more increasing the magnitude of the new weekly record in 3.4 and 4. 11NOV2015 2.0 3.0 3.0 1.7 18NOV2015 2.1 3.0 3.1 1.8 Crazy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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