snowman19 Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 We may have peaked?I don't know where people are getting this "we already peaked" stuff. Region 3.4 is up to over +3.1C, +3.2C by some measures and it is still warming. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I don't know where people are getting this "we already peaked" stuff. Region 3.4 is up to over +3.1C, +3.2C by some measures and it is still warming. Lmao yet to be seen...it cooled today...doesn't mean we peaked of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Also having the event develop from a Modoki base state back in March helped set the more westerly tone. sst.png Fascinating and that's the best reasoning I've heard yet to date as to why this super niño or extremely close to super niño has maintained its basin wide nature. It's almost as if it's following an atmospheric lag response from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 We are likely within 2 weeks of the peak. CFS shows a weak down welling Kelvin wave over the 120W to SA coast. Because of a few days seeing the strongest trade reversal this far East. The CFS after shows the anomaloustrades slowly weakening but not moving West yet. Never the less. This wwb will likely trigger the last spike in warmth East Of 120W. This will likely be a very strong quick surge. Especially along and North of the equator. The subsurface warmth is still moving East. This should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Convection has been going big time over the East/central Pacific subtropical basin right along the river of death that is running 28-30C. There is convection along the entire basin. But this region has really flared up. Very impressive. We are entering late November and things are not going back to the way they were before the first mjo pulse. Not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 An above normal November and December has been the call here since August/September . Yawn at a 10 day 500 mb map in late November as if it lends credence to your forecast . Come back in late December to witness the pattern retrograde in time for the more favorable J-M forecast period. I haven't seen any forecasts with an early start to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 I don't think January is favorable. Wintry may not come until February. Typical very strong Nino + very positive QBO response... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I don't think January is favorable. Wintry may not come until February. Typical very strong Nino + very positive QBO response...Please find me a "typical " strong NINO with a warm IO a warm EP with forcing centered at 160 ( and thats being generous ) and post the winter results for us .I am curious to see these "typical " responses. This NINO has no analog so be careful with the broad brushing approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Please find me a "typical " strong NINO with a warm IO a warm EP with forcing centered at 160 ( and thats being generous ) and post the winter results for us . I am curious to see these "typical " responses. This NINO has no analog so be careful with the broad brushing approach. In a few months, we'll know if I'm right or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 In a few months, we'll know if I'm right or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Keep the discussion about the nino (obvious tangents about sensible weather regarding the nino, like above, are fine). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I think that blob of strong -OLR just west of the Dateline could be causing the -EPO ridge response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 JMA is up to +26...third highest behind 1982-83's +28 and 1997-98's +33... ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 JMA is up to +26...third highest behind 1982-83's +28 and 1997-98's +33... ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5 That's comparing the peaks of the '97 and '82 El Niños. If we're comparing the same timeframe, 82 is +13 and 97 is +28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 The new IRI plumes are out, they are peaking the ONI at +2.6C for Nov-Dec-Jan: https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/667416669359181824 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The new IRI plumes are out, they are peaking the ONI at +2.6C for Nov-Dec-Jan: https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/667416669359181824 The new IRI plumes are out, they are peaking the ONI at +2.6C for Nov-Dec-Jan: https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/667416669359181824 ONI will be lower...IRI plume isn't based off ERSST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I'd guess we'll see forcing continue to shift east as the warmest water is gradually consolidated to 100W-140W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I'd guess we'll see forcing continue to shift east as the warmest water is gradually consolidated to 100W-140WMatt , I disagree. The ' warmest " plus 30 c waters are between 150 and 180 , the greatest deviations from N do span from 100 to 150 , but with R 4 at plus 1.7 it's much warmer west. I expect that the guidance is in line and we force west during the season and not east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Matt , I disagree. The ' warmest " plus 30 c waters are between 160 and 180 , the greatest deviations from N do span from 100 to 150 , but with R 4 at plus 1.7 it's much warmer west. I expect that the guidance is in line and we force west during the season and not east. Correction: 180-150W.Our forcing is most likely related to the MJO. We need the MJO to die off... The MJO is causing a large pocket of forcing over the Indian Ocean, and results in a pocket of sinking air over the Maritime Continent. Then, another pocket of forcing develops to the east of the Maritime, which is the same forcing we are seeing build, and is also the forcing you mentioned. It is suggested this activity will shift east as the MJO pushes east and dies off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Correction: 180-150W. Our forcing is most likely related to the MJO. We need the MJO to die off... The MJO is causing a large pocket of forcing over the Indian Ocean, and results in a pocket of sinking air over the Maritime Continent. Then, another pocket of forcing develops to the east of the Maritime, which is the same forcing we are seeing build, and is also the forcing you mentioned. It is suggested this activity will shift east as the MJO pushes east and dies off. Sure , 150 to 180 looks good to me. 160 being the Centerpoint . I like the look at the overall guidance for 160 as 3.4and 4 are at record levels I think I /guidance favor the forcing there. . The convection is never stationary , but I think the atmosphere will be more apt to force further west this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Enso 1-2 has begun to make likely it's final push. What's more intriguing to me is that the CFS has another mjo pulse take off the first of December running from the dateline to the far East Pacific. This is a sign of convection staying East of the dateline and propagating East. Coincidently or not the models continue to trend towards absolute ugliness. The 06z gfs has historical rainfall over aa huge area in the Midwest that has already been smoked. This is of course highly subject to change. Never the less it's a hell of a run. Stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'd guess we'll see forcing continue to shift east as the warmest water is gradually consolidated to 100W-140W Vast majority of guidance forces sufficiently west for the balance of the season........as far as the next five weeks are concerned, we all expected that period to suck, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'd guess we'll see forcing continue to shift east as the warmest water is gradually consolidated to 100W-140W Based upon my research, statistically that has a very / very low probability of occurring. Additionally, given the absolute warmth is centered generally 180-150W, that will tend to promote the strongest convection there, though we'll see convection east as well. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 About 3.5 months ago, WSI posted about a correlation between strong July blocking and DJF blocking. Of course, we saw the second strongest blocking on record this July. With December only 10 days away, I thought I'd see what we should expect for December, assuming the correlation exists. After some digging, I found the years that had top 10 strongest July blocks... and each of the following DJFs had a mean -NAO. December 1950: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/2NTlVujXl3.png December 1958: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/U8eZ3FVvr8.png December 2000: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/KpCyr6tiHJ.png December 1957: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/WZOG3pjIi1.png December 1980: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/YzcAhg5gqT.png December 1960: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/LywvZcPacN.png December 1978: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/xWEB6LrRKz.png December 1962: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/0MaVI8GcJJ.png December 2009: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/aeJYw1nna6.png If you don't feel like clicking on each link, most Decembers featured rather strong blocking. The only exceptions are 1957 (strong +NAO), 1980 (east-based +NAO), and 1960 (moderate +NAO). Average of all the years Keep in mind, WSI's correlation only focuses on the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Nice find, but with an impressive subtropical jet in place due to our El Niño, blocking could be evened out into a more zonal fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Nice find, but with an impressive subtropical jet in place due to our El Niño, blocking could be evened out into a more zonal fashion.The models are showing a roaring, juiced subtropical jet come the beginning of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It's interesting to note that the warm pool hasn't really cooled off as it has migrated like it has with past big Ninos. Some real bathwater 30-32C SSTs sitting out there. Definitely atypical behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 It's interesting to note that the warm pool hasn't really cooled off as it has migrated like it has with past big Ninos. Some real bathwater 30-32C SSTs sitting out there. Definitely atypical behavior.If the latest data is to be believed, region 3.4 is at over +3.1C right now. That in and of itself is hard to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 Models showing another strong WWB and plummeting SOI. This will assure that the Nino does not peak until sometime in December, most likely mid December or shortly thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Almost home , another 2 weeks then say goodbye , It was a good run , nice knowing ya and after this the story next summer will be the coming LA NINA . Oh yeh and BTW thanks for the upcoming forcing ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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