Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[snowman19]

Confirmed, region 3.4 is over +3.1C: https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/666658084777934848

[donsutherland1]

We'll see. We have a very favorable windfield.

With OHC still at peak levels.

The warm pool is still moving East at peak strength.

Going back a month we can see this is the strongest trade reversal near the SA coast so far.

Even going back 90 days it's still the strongest.

We will see

 

It will be interesting to see what happens. The SOI has rebounded and is at its most positive figure since June 9. One starts seeing the trade winds breaking through as El Niño events peak. Strong WWBs remain likely, but whether those outcomes will boost the slowly declining Region 1+2 anomalies remains to be seen.

[Morris]

Confirmed, region 3.4 is over +3.1C: https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/666658084777934848

 

 

You should also post what it says about region 1.2

[snowman19]

You should also post what it says about region 1.2

Region 3.4 is what weather history will remember this Nino's strength by, as has always been the case

[Morris]

Region 3.4 is what weather history will remember this Nino's strength by, as has always been the case

 

I think you talked quite a bit about 1.2 in this thread. A LOT

[Deck Pic]

It looks like Region 3.4 is up over +3.1C now. If that verifies, it's crazy

 

my maps have it at 3.24

[snowman19]

my maps have it at 3.24

This thing is out of control, yet another downwelling kelvin wave, it's not done strengthening yet, just wow! https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/666674321318768640

[thunderbolt]

JMA winter outlook http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

[The_Global_Warmer]

It will be interesting to see what happens. The SOI has rebounded and is at its most positive figure since June 9. One starts seeing the trade winds breaking through as El Niño events peak. Strong WWBs remain likely, but whether those outcomes will boost the slowly declining Region 1+2 anomalies remains to be seen.

I agree. Although it doesn't really matter.

The enso 1-2 hype and fear is almost exclusively a snow weenie talking point when trying to downplay thia nino over the epac.

Nothing IMO is more frustrating than dealing with people being disingenuous. Especially in a scientific based discussion.

I deeply appreciate the level of personal integrity you always bring to these discussions.

You don't make it personal. You don't throw busted predictions and projections in someones face to discredit them while ignoring your own. It's much appreciated and well respected.

So onto the discussion. Below visualizes the enso regions.

Enso 1-2 is from 90-80W and on top of that its also South of the equator between 0-10S.

Great for taking the progression of enso events. Good for taking fishing interests and coral reef concerns.

But essentially worthless when it comes to tracking tropical convection.

Hundreds of posts by snow weenies going on and on about this tiny region because it's cooler than 1997. Good for 2nd and 3rd place in over 140 years of data.

More importantly it's currently not even warm enough to initiate convection.

By far the strongest and furtherest East WWB of the entire event is underway.

Its short lived. But still a reversal of the trades between 120W and the SA coast. Mostly along and North of the equator will definitely cause strong warming.

The general slacking of the trades.

The sub surface warm pool is still moving East. At this time there is sufficient warmth for abruptly strong warming between 110-80W.

We will see.

What implications come from so much tropical convection that far East and North of the equator?

I assume there will be seasonal cooling over the Region below.

Never the less there is a 12-15 degree of latitude band of 28-30C ssts running from Mexico WSW back to the equator.

Most of this area should be 26C except closer to Mexico which averages 28C this time of year.

[alwaysready126]

I agree. Although it doesn't really matter.

The enso 1-2 hype and fear is almost exclusively a snow weenie talking point when trying to downplay thia nino over the epac.

Nothing IMO is more frustrating than dealing with people being disingenuous. Especially in a scientific based discussion.

I deeply appreciate the level of personal integrity you always bring to these discussions.

You don't make it personal. You don't throw busted predictions and projections in someones face to discredit them while ignoring your own. It's much appreciated and well respected.

So onto the discussion. Below visualizes the enso regions.

Enso 1-2 is from 90-80W and on top of that its also South of the equator between 0-10S.

Great for taking the progression of enso events. Good for taking fishing interests and coral reef concerns.

But essentially worthless when it comes to tracking tropical convection.

Hundreds of posts by snow weenies going on and on about this tiny region because it's cooler than 1997. Good for 2nd and 3rd place in over 140 years of data.

More importantly it's currently not even warm enough to initiate convection.

By far the strongest and furtherest East WWB of the entire event is underway.

Its short lived. But still a reversal of the trades between 120W and the SA coast. Mostly along and North of the equator will definitely cause strong warming.

The general slacking of the trades.

The sub surface warm pool is still moving East. At this time there is sufficient warmth for abruptly strong warming between 110-80W.

We will see.

What implications come from so much tropical convection that far East and North of the equator?

I assume there will be seasonal cooling over the Region below.

Never the less there is a 12-15 degree of latitude band of 28-30C ssts running from Mexico WSW back to the equator.

Most of this area should be 26C except closer to Mexico which averages 28C this time of year.

With all due respect GW (since I do not know you on a personal level), calling a spade a spade is not being a "snow weenie."  You have been relentlessly forecasting record warmth in ENSO region 1.2 for weeks upon weeks; only presenting data that could kind of support your forecast  but only if you look at it "hard enough."  The fact is that pretty much almost all of your predictions proved incorrect.  You've been ending your posts with "we will see" as if your predictions haven't already come and gone.  We have in fact seen region 1.2 start a descent in SST's, haven't we?  

[RubiksDestroyer]

I agree. Although it doesn't really matter.

The enso 1-2 hype and fear is almost exclusively a snow weenie talking point when trying to downplay thia nino over the epac.

Nothing IMO is more frustrating than dealing with people being disingenuous. Especially in a scientific based discussion.

I deeply appreciate the level of personal integrity you always bring to these discussions.

You don't make it personal. You don't throw busted predictions and projections in someones face to discredit them while ignoring your own. It's much appreciated and well respected.

So onto the discussion. Below visualizes the enso regions.

Enso 1-2 is from 90-80W and on top of that its also South of the equator between 0-10S.

Great for taking the progression of enso events. Good for taking fishing interests and coral reef concerns.

But essentially worthless when it comes to tracking tropical convection.

Hundreds of posts by snow weenies going on and on about this tiny region because it's cooler than 1997. Good for 2nd and 3rd place in over 140 years of data.

More importantly it's currently not even warm enough to initiate convection.

By far the strongest and furtherest East WWB of the entire event is underway.

Its short lived. But still a reversal of the trades between 120W and the SA coast. Mostly along and North of the equator will definitely cause strong warming.

The general slacking of the trades.

The sub surface warm pool is still moving East. At this time there is sufficient warmth for abruptly strong warming between 110-80W.

We will see.

What implications come from so much tropical convection that far East and North of the equator?

I assume there will be seasonal cooling over the Region below.

Never the less there is a 12-15 degree of latitude band of 28-30C ssts running from Mexico WSW back to the equator.

Most of this area should be 26C except closer to Mexico which averages 28C this time of year.

 

Per Allan's (RaleighWx) twitter:

That's not hype or fear, that's plain fact. Of course, we'll have to see what happens after this; the temperature decrease will likely slow down, but I don't see any explosive warming you've mentioned over the past two months happening.

 

As for your other points:

 

Sure, 1.2's tiny, but 1997 was also a beast in region 3, and while this event's strong there, it's still currently weaker than '97. And regions 3.4 and 4 are setting new records by the day, so I don't understand why the focus would be on 3 or 1.2.

 

I can't argue much over the 850 mb Zonal Wind Anomalies, but you've been tooting this horn for the past few months, and as you can see in the above graph, it's not done much for 1.2 (which was the region you've primarily been saying will see warming, especially in your earlier posts). The same goes with the 1-degree-longitude-every-3-days eastward shift you've been focusing on. Region 3, again, is a different story, but I'll say it again: region 3 is not the most impressive part of this Nino. 

 

Sure, maybe the forcing north of the equator will impact the Nino, but I betcha it won't be nearly as much as that much stronger forcing just west of the dateline that's actually on the equator 

 

Don't mistake me; I don't think that 1.2 is gonna collapse or anything, I'm just skeptical of this magically becoming east-based with everything that's going on right now. I think 1.2 will probably level out in a few days, then maybe warm a little, but for the most part I do think it's hit its peak (as the CFS promised).

[alwaysready126]

One more thing, GW... you can't discount the "tiny region of 1.2" and pretend that this region being cooler than in 1997 does not have big implications.  There is nothing more fickle than the weather pattern when it comes to even a moderate difference in location of the warmest SST's in the Pacific, especially in ENSO regions.  The "small" difference in location has had HUGE implications in the overall weather pattern over the past 140 years.  Additionally, if you look at the size of the anomaly in 1997 not only east to west but north to south....well, this is an entirely different ballgame.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The 28C line is all that matters pertaining to enso.

In the real world physics matter.

Climo is not uniform throughout the enso regions.

A +5C anomaly in the middle of enso 1-2 versus a +5C anomaly in the middle of enso 4 is not the same.

Light blue/green line: 23C

Green/yellow: 27C

Yellow/red: 31C

Sequence 1982, 1997, 2015.

1982 and 2015 are LITERALLY THE SAME. 1997 is slightly further East/South than the other two.

It is what it is.

Also enso 3 in 1997 had a 3.6C anomaly at this time.

That's again almost the same.

1997: 3.6C

2015: 3.0C

2009: 1.2C

2002: 1.4C

[The_Global_Warmer]

One more thing, GW... you can't discount the "tiny region of 1.2" and pretend that this region being cooler than in 1997 does not have big implications. There is nothing more fickle than the weather pattern when it comes to even a moderate difference in location of the warmest SST's in the Pacific, especially in ENSO regions. The "small" difference in location has had HUGE implications in the overall weather pattern over the past 140 years. Additionally, if you look at the size of the anomaly in 1997 not only east to west but north to south....well, this is an entirely different ballgame.

The anomalies are skewed. This is identical to 1982 and slightly West of 1997.

In the real world physics matter.

Climo is not uniform throughout the enso regions.

A +5C anomaly in the middle of enso 1-2 versus a +5C anomaly in the middle of enso 4 is not the same.

Light blue/green line: 23C

Green/yellow: 27C

Yellow/red: 31C

[RubiksDestroyer]

The anomalies are skewed. This is identical to 1982 and slightly West of 1997.

In the real world physics matter.

Climo is not uniform throughout the enso regions.

A +5C anomaly in the middle of enso 1-2 versus a +5C anomaly in the middle of enso 4 is not the same.

Light blue/green line: 23C

Green/yellow: 27C

Yellow/red: 31C

 

I get that climo is not uniform throughout the Pacific, it's why El Ninos happen in the first place. 

 

The SST map you posted is pretty broad; that's a 4 Celsius/Kelvin difference between each color, so really I don't know if saying it's exactly like 1982 is good if the margin of error can be up to 4 degrees Celsius. Also note the greens that hug the SA coast in 97 and 82, but not 2015. That's the key difference right there.

[alwaysready126]

are you saying 1982 el nino and 2015 are exactly the same?  1997 is almost the same?  yes, physics do  matter.  That's why you've been proven wrong over and over.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Got the 28C mark isolated.

The 301k mark equals 28C.

1982, 2015, 1997.

1982 is clearly warmer in enso 1-2 then 2015 which means nothing at those temps.

However 2015 is warmer over enso 3 and the subtropical epac.

The 28C line is much further East and much wider than 1982 over the subtropical epac.

The 28C line is much closer between 2015 and 1997 than 1982.

[RubiksDestroyer]

Got the 28C mark isolated.

The 301k mark equals 28C.

1982, 2015, 1997.

1982 is clearly warmer in enso 1-2 then 2015 which means nothing at those temps.

However 2015 is warmer over enso 3 and the subtropical epac.

The 28C line is much further East and much wider than 1982 over the subtropical epac.

The 28C line is much closer between 2015 and 1997 than 1982.

Past 1.2 and eastern parts of region 3 (note the jump up in the 299 K line), it's a pretty decent comparison, but I do think you're slightly underestimating the power of 1.2's influence. Then again, we've only got like 2 years to go off of as far as past records go for 1.2-strong El Ninos (1982 and 1997), so maybe I'm overestimating it.

[PB GFI]

Forcing between 160 -180 is consistent with a basin wide forcing as you can see the response at 500  .

 

Ignoring guidance is always dangerous .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

Here`s the European , it also looks to force between 160 and west of 180 .

Which looks similar to the NMME .

if you posted the Euro seasonal and NMME  J - M side by side @  500 , you will see they also match up pretty well. 

No guidance forced east ( 120 - 140 ) where we forced in 97 .

 

 

 

So this is not that .....  The  CFS is the further east of all the guidance ( Still looks centered at 160 ) .

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/prate_Seas2.html

 

[Snow_Miser]

This isn't identical to 1982. 

 

Same picture with 1997. This year is colder East and warmer West.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Past 1.2 and eastern parts of region 3 (note the jump up in the 299 K line), it's a pretty decent comparison, but I do think you're slightly underestimating the power of 1.2's influence. Then again, we've only got like 2 years to go off of as far as past records go for 1.2-strong El Ninos (1982 and 1997), so maybe I'm overestimating it.

I appreciate the logical response.

I have no preference in how this turns out. This has been a great learning experience for me.

I read a couple papers from the NOAA CPC site about tropical convection. And the 28C mark was starkly represented as a requirement for tropical convection.

This nino is epic from about 105W to the dateline.

With a sharp gradient East of there for having the deep tropical heat reaching so far East.

But overall the 28C region is pretty large and far East.

Beyond that I don't know what this means going forward.

But we do know even if anomalies are huge if the actual water temp isn't reaching very very close to 28CC orwarmer it won't factor into the convection process. Which is the backbone of this whole thing.

Its just some thing that is pretty important.

Forecasters don't say we are going to see a high of -3F below normal Thursday.

Because that has no real world value.

We talk about nino in terms of anomalies. Which is a way to compare them to each other.

But it has no real world application.

So I find it fascinating that the 28C mark of is so far East.

Which enso 1-2 can't account for.

[OSUmetstud]

The 28c line migrated towards the SA coast in the winter in both 97 and 82.

[bluewave]

This event was able to set weekly records in 3.4 and 4 since it wasn't pushed up against

the coast of South America like 97-98 and 82-83 were. It is our first known El Nino

this strong which is a basin-wide rather than east-based.

 

 

[Isotherm]

GW, there are other indicators to examine beyond SST's. The 850mb anomalies have been quite a bit different than a year like 1997, for example, over the past few months. 850mb zonal wind anomalies are generally a valuable proxy for ascertaining where the strongest westerly wind bursts are occurring. Additionally, the most robust low level convergence tends to be located immediately east of those wind anomalies. The walker cell orientation has favored the greatest upward motion between 150-180W over the past few months, while in 1997, it was more toward 120-165W.

 

850mb wind anomalies. Note the scales are different as well. Strong westerly anomalies west of the dateline in October, which also aided in the build-up of region 3.4 / 4 extreme warmth.

 

 

 

1997 - October 850mb wind anomalies.

 

In 2015, zonal wind anomalies were generally < +6 m/s from 140W eastward. In 1997, we had +8-10 m/s anomalies all the way over at 140-35W. Those differences in both magnitude and location of zonal wind anomalies are important, as they are suggestive of the behavior of the ENSO event overall.

 

One can see that over the past month-two months, zonal wind anomalies have consistently verified west of forecasts. We haven't had many strong bursts maintain east of 140W, which is largely why this event pales in comparison to 1997 east of 140W.

 

[Weathergun]

GW, there are other indicators to examine beyond SST's. The 850mb anomalies have been quite a bit different than a year like 1997, for example, over the past few months. 850mb zonal wind anomalies are generally a valuable proxy for ascertaining where the strongest westerly wind bursts are occurring. Additionally, the most robust low level convergence tends to be located immediately east of those wind anomalies. The walker cell orientation has favored the greatest upward motion between 150-180W over the past few months, while in 1997, it was more toward 120-165W.

 

850mb wind anomalies. Note the scales are different as well. Strong westerly anomalies west of the dateline in October, which also aided in the build-up of region 3.4 / 4 extreme warmth.

 

 

 

1997 - October 850mb wind anomalies.

 

In 2015, zonal wind anomalies were generally < +6 m/s from 140W eastward. In 1997, we had +8-10 m/s anomalies all the way over at 140-35W. Those differences in both magnitude and location of zonal wind anomalies are important, as they are suggestive of the behavior of the ENSO event overall.

 

One can see that over the past month-two months, zonal wind anomalies have consistently verified west of forecasts. We haven't had many strong bursts maintain east of 140W, which is largely why this event pales in comparison to 1997 east of 140W.

 

I strongly agree. It's been this way for months now, I think.

[bluewave]

I strongly agree. It's been this way for months now, I think.

 

Also having the event develop from a Modoki base state back in March helped set the more westerly tone.

 

[mattie g]

I have nothing to add, but let me say that this thread has been a great read for someone like me who's reading in order to learn.  Really...just great stuff all around.

 

Thanks to zwyts for pointing the MA forum folks to this discussion.

[uncle W]

soi minimums ...

day.....1997...2015 soi minimums...

086...-38.04..........076...-35.90

101...-38.78..........098...-31.15

124...-37.85..........129...-46.94

143...-41.87..........135...-33.15

151...-85.72..........143...-17.75

162...-49.99..........156...-04.71

168...-61.70..........166....10.75

180...-21.54..........177...-48.73

188....02.84..........188....13.48

197...-09.84..........197...-31.46

204...-34.78..........204...-11.39

215...-15.82..........215...-37.87

233...-33.88..........233...-21.85

254...-17.27..........254...-33.75

260...-26.63..........260...-04.93

278...-32.98..........276...-49.77

308...-56.59..........308...-11.65

318....20.56..........318...-04.65

331...-44.58..........321....11.51

337...-21.19..........337...-47.59

032...-77.60

093...-52.94

120...-53.83

soi has been positive for a few days on and off recently...1997 soi was still way lower around this time of the year...

second check shows the soi went positive from day 314-321 in 1997...after it went back to very negative numbers...is this year's latest soi a blip on the radar like 1997?...twt...

[Deck Pic]

We may have peaked?