snowman19 Posted November 15, 2015 Author Share Posted November 15, 2015 http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/strong-warm-surge-and-powerful-storm-next-week-as-el-nio-appears-to-We are just over 2 weeks away from December. Yea we are getting close to the peak. It's stating the obvious, we've known that this Nino is going to peak in December for months now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 This will go down as the most impressive El Nino event west of 120W while 97-98 and 82-83 the most impressive east of 120W. globe_oisst_anom_current.png globe_oisst_anom_1997.png The Atlantic is almost inverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 The Atlantic is almost inverse. Might be a tad off the original topic, but that's one thing about which I haven't seen that much discussion. How, if at all, will the current configuration of Atlantic SST's affect how things ultimately play out? Good observation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 If this pans out a 1-2 spike is certain. Probably jump well above the previous peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 If this pans out a 1-2 spike is certain. Probably jump well above the previous peak. It's noticeably disjointed, if not weaker, than previous events so I doubt it has much of an effect. Then the fat lady starts her first verse me thinks. Of course, there's also the chance it weakens or moves further west as the forecast period approaches as before this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 The Atlantic is almost inverse. Meaningless. It is a reflection of the where the pattern is, and has been. Wait until January, and watch it flip once the pattern does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 It's noticeably disjointed, if not weaker, than previous events so I doubt it has much of an effect. Then the fat lady starts her first verse me thinks. Of course, there's also the chance it weakens or moves further west as the forecast period approaches as before this season.It isn't disjointed, displaced, confused, farted or whatever you want to call it other than the strongest event we have ever seen as far as El Niño goes, region 3.4 is at +3.0C, a new record. It isn't becoming west based, east based, modoki, it has become the strongest basin wide Nino in history however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 It isn't disjointed, displaced, confused, farted or whatever you want to call it other than the strongest event we have ever seen as far as El Niño goes, region 3.4 is at +3.0C, a new record. It isn't becoming west based, east based, modoki, it has become the strongest basin wide Nino in history however Hes specifically discussing 1.2 modeled warming. No one was knocking your historic nino, relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Hes specifically discussing 1.2 modeled warming. No one was knocking your historic nino, relax.It's gotta be November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 It isn't disjointed, displaced, confused, farted or whatever you want to call it other than the strongest event we have ever seen as far as El Niño goes, region 3.4 is at +3.0C, a new record. It isn't becoming west based, east based, modoki, it has become the strongest basin wide Nino in history howeverI was referencing the 850 burst GW had discussed. Anyway, it's just warm water that's a few degrees warmer than normal that will likely be below normal this time next year, so let's not get too carried away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 It isn't disjointed, displaced, confused, farted or whatever you want to call it other than the strongest event we have ever seen as far as El Niño goes, region 3.4 is at +3.0C, a new record. It isn't becoming west based, east based, modoki, it has become the strongest basin wide Nino in history however Exactly. Trade weakening events are much weaker overall than dateline to 150W. This might get us to 3.0C+ from enso 1&2, enso 3, enso 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Exactly. Trade weakening events are much weaker overall than dateline to 150W. This might get us to 3.0C+ from enso 1&2, enso 3, enso 3-4. not for nothing, but I think you are grasping for straws here. You have been calling for an unprecedented spike in enso 1.2 for weeks and weeks... and it still hasn't happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Joe D'Aleo thinks the Nino is going to peak at the end of this month. Regions 1 and 2 are still cooling off. I think we are close to the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Joe D'Aleo thinks the Nino is going to peak at the end of this month. Regions 1 and 2 are still cooling off. I think we are close to the peak.Do you really and truly think it will make a huge difference if this Nino peaks at the end of this month or early/mid December? What exactly is your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Do you really and truly think it will make a huge difference if this Nino peaks at the end of this month or early/mid December? What exactly is your point? actually, i do. since the cooling of all enso regions should be relatively (very) fast, when they peak could have huge implications for the second half of winter. It's not just me saying it...almost every seasonal forecast I've read is calling for a huge shift in the overall pattern come January (or Feb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 actually, i do. since the cooling of all enso regions should be relatively (very) fast, when they peak could have huge implications for the second half of winter. It's not just me saying it...almost every seasonal forecast I've read is calling for a huge shift in the overall pattern come January (or Feb).Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 As of right now. There is nothing suggesting the East side of this nino will abruptly collapse. The warm pool has moved East the last two weeks. Not West. And we have at least two more weeks of classic East based nino trades. Anyways there is a 32C = 90FF reading above. 90F ocean water Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 New weekly record of +3.0 set in the Nino 3.4 region. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 04NOV2015 2.1 2.8 2.8 1.711NOV2015 2.0 3.0 3.0 1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 New weekly record of +3.0 set in the Nino 3.4 region. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 04NOV2015 2.1 2.8 2.8 1.7 11NOV2015 2.0 3.0 3.0 1.7 It clearly has not peaked yet. Warming still ongoing, we are several weeks (December) away from a peak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 It clearly has not peaked yet. Warming still ongoing, we are several weeks (December) away from a peak... So that's the weekly record? That's impressive. The latest oisst is boiling from 100W to the dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Exactly. Trade weakening events are much weaker overall than dateline to 150W. This might get us to 3.0C+ from enso 1&2, enso 3, enso 3-4. 04NOV2015 2.1 2.8 2.8 1.7 11NOV2015 2.0 3.0 3.0 1.7 This continues to be about every region BUT 1.2 .( And it has been this way since early Sept ) Why do you insist on including it in your analysis ? Plus 3C in R 3 and 3.4 have been opined here by many over the last month but what`s the fixation with a region that has done nothing but cool over the last 6 weeks ? Or did you really believe through your analysis that a 1 C jump was coming ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Weekly Nino region records: Nino 1+2.....+4.6 or greater June 1983...+4.6 August 13, 1997 Nino 3.........+3.7 November 26, 1997 Nino 3.4......+3.0 November 11, 2015 Nino 4.........+1.7 November 4-11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 As of right now. There is nothing suggesting the East side of this nino will abruptly collapse. The warm pool has moved East the last two weeks. Not West. And we have at least two more weeks of classic East based nino trades. Anyways there is a 32C = 90FF reading above. 90F ocean water Wow I don't think we still need to comment on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Exactly. Trade weakening events are much weaker overall than dateline to 150W. This might get us to 3.0C+ from enso 1&2, enso 3, enso 3-4. I don't think it's very likely that Region 1+2 will get to +3.0°C anomalies. A slow fade has been underway. There may be some weekly fluctuations where Region 1+2 warms, but I believe we've seen the peak in the weekly figures. Spring is a sort of wildcard, as some El Niño events have seen robust warming in that region just before the El Niño event collapsed, but that's still fairly far in the future and not wholly certain. I suspect that if the mean anomalies for all the strong El Niño events are considered, Region 1+2 will see weekly anomalies fall below +2.0°C either later this month or in December. This allows for weekly fluctuations where there could be some temporary increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I don't think it's very likely that Region 1+2 will get to +3.0°C anomalies. A slow fade has been underway. There may be some weekly fluctuations where Region 1+2 warms, but I believe we've seen the peak in the weekly figures. Spring is a sort of wildcard, as some El Niño events have seen robust warming in that region just before the El Niño event collapsed, but that's still fairly far in the future and not wholly certain. I suspect that if the mean anomalies for all the strong El Niño events are considered, Region 1+2 will see weekly anomalies fall below +2.0°C either later this month or in December. This allows for weekly fluctuations where there could be some temporary increases. We'll see. We have a very favorable windfield. With OHC still at peak levels. The warm pool is still moving East at peak strength. Going back a month we can see this is the strongest trade reversal near the SA coast so far. Even going back 90 days it's still the strongest. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 1+2 is plummeting...could be a temporary oscillation, but it is tanking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 New weekly record of +3.0 set in the Nino 3.4 region. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 04NOV2015 2.1 2.8 2.8 1.7 11NOV2015 2.0 3.0 3.0 1.7 I expected Region 4 to be 1.9...surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 1+2 is plummeting...could be a temporary oscillation, but it is tanking Along with 3 and 4 rising. Great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 I expected Region 4 to be 1.9...surprised.It looks like Region 3.4 is up over +3.1C now. If that verifies, it's crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Very interesting subsurface calculations for the strongest El Niño's on record, ordered from lowest to highest year (top to bottom): Clearly, our El Niño's subsurface is weakest. However, recent evidence suggests our warm pool has strengthened significantly. I will post a November subsurface comparison early December. Another interesting thing to note is the warm pool in our year is higher up - more shallow than the others. Can this mean our El Niño will peak later than we expect (considering the El Niño we have is a late bloomer)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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