40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The most interesting question is what the hugger to BM ratio will be January 15-March 31. We can still break even with mostly huggers and big front end thumps. So more BM tracks in the mix would put us into the above normal snowfall category. This is the real concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Convection has already returned around the dateline. That's still pretty far East. There is also convection across the entire basin to Mexico along the 28C Axis. I'm guessing the convection disrupts the walker cell and subsequently the trades? Either way currently the 28C line is running out to 125W at the eqautor and basin wide along 5-7N which is also anomalous. Hell the 30C line is remarkably to 150W. Is there evidence that convection will fire over the 30-31C historically large warm pool Causing subsidence down stream over the 28-30C also historically warm area? Otherwise wouldn't we see convection go basin wide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That convection hasn't been the primary forcing that split between the IO and West Coast since October 25th. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp.anom.30.5S-5N.gif There can be multiple zones of strong upper divergence occurring concurrently. The rapid return to central tropical pacific upper divergence over the past couple weeks indicates that the amplified MJO wave perturbation was indeed transient, the mean ENSO forcing cell looks to maintain itself in that general area of the Pacific. The MJO wave forcing will allow strong convection to persist in the East Indian Ocean, due in part to the anomalously warm waters. However, the chi 200hpa anomalies have been negative in the central tropical Pacific since the beginning of this month - a much more rapid reversal than progged by the GFS forecasts in late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The most interesting question is what the hugger to BM ratio will be January 15-March 31. We can still break even with mostly huggers and big front end thumps. But more BM tracks in the mix would put us into the above normal snowfall category. That is where the -NAO or lack of there of will come into play. When it comes to any upcoming storms, we won't necessarily need a dominate -NAO. A transient one would suffice just as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 The latest data suggests we have now surpassed the 97 record of +2.8C in region 3.4. Looks like we are now over +2.9C even on the AVHRR which always underestimates SSTS. My guess is that we are either at +3.0C now or just barely under it by a hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That's still pretty far East. There is also convection across the entire basin to Mexico along the 28C Axis. I'm guessing the convection disrupts the walker cell and subsequently the trades? Either way currently the 28C line is running out to 125W at the eqautor and basin wide along 5-7N which is also anomalous. Hell the 30C line is remarkably to 150W. Is there evidence that convection will fire over the 30-31C historically large warm pool Causing subsidence down stream over the 28-30C also historically warm area? Otherwise wouldn't we see convection go basin wide? The 7 day map clearly shows the forcing over to just east of the DL. Still looking good to these weenie eyes.http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Does anyone really know what in the hell forcing is, what constitutes it? I mean, it just seems like every time someone pulls up a chart to illustrate a point on the matter, someone else jumps them in short order with a map of another esoteric indicator on the opposite side of the ocean. Jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 This debate should be over by the 11th hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Its the most anomalous ssts in R3, no it's the lowest OLR off Peru, not its the convection is at 160w, but The 200mb winds are strongest around 120W.....BLAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That's still pretty far East. There is also convection across the entire basin to Mexico along the 28C Axis. The weekly average I posted is really not that far East. 1997 saw the highest forcing centered around 120 to 140 W. 1957 was more 160 W. 2002 and 2009 saw forcing near the dateline. The image I posted shows the best Forcing over the last week to be between 160 W and 180 W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The MJO really weakened the forcing near the D/L and the IO has been doing the primary forcing. You can see how much stronger the IO forcing has been than two weaker areas split between the D/L and near Mexico this month. FC.gif B.gif A.gif Yes, the more expansive upper divergence cell has been located near 60E; however, much of that -chi 200hpa extends into the subtropical / mid latitude regions of Asia. The most impactful divergence signaling is that which occurs between 5-10N and 5-10S based upon my research. This is why - even though the larger forcing cell is over India - it's still important that the tropical Pacific forcing quickly retrogressed over the past couple weeks. I don't believe you were arguing about the mid latitude impacts, but generally, the 5-10N-5-10S region is more important (IMO) than extra-tropical forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 Yeah, it's weaker between 5N and 5S over the Pacific compared to what we saw in October. D/L forcing returns in earnest to the Pacific in December according to the latest model runs. vp.anom.90.5S-5N.gif Regardless of anything, the El Niño and associated STJ is going to have a huge, overwhelming effect on the long wave pattern this upcoming winter with region 3.4 hitting +3C. It is going to be a main driver, no question about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The weekly average I posted is really not that far East. 1997 saw the highest forcing centered around 120 to 140 W. 1957 was more 160 W. 2002 and 2009 saw forcing near the dateline. The image I posted shows the best Forcing over the last week to be between 160 W and 180 W. If you were forecasting the base state of the NPAC this winter just looking at these charts what would you predict. Here is climo versus 2015. 1982, 97, 2015. 2002, 09, 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 If you were forecasting the base state of the NPAC this winter just looking at these charts what would you predict. Here is climo versus 2015. 1982, 97, 2015. 2002, 09, 15. Clearly, this year is much closer to 02 & 09 forcing, only stronger. Hence, winter closer to those years. Of course, that assumes something else doesn't trump it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Clearly, this year is much closer to 02 & 09 forcing, only stronger. Hence, winter closer to those years. Of course, that assumes something else doesn't trump it.Except it's not. It's not even close. 2015 is more east based than 1982. I am guessing the historic warmth over the central pacific is throwing people off. Because the 28C line is further East and South than ever year but 1997. This is probably why the numerical models are starting to struggle with where the convection is going to line up. I doubt anything can trump it. I'd mostly worry about the Arctic being pinched off. Low level airmasses will be modulated in part by low level flow off any ocean basin around North America. Evaporation is clearly going to be historic along the STJ. I think storm track will be great. But multiple deformation slop fest's, cold rains, and such Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Looks like convection is having issues staying West. Also anomalies mean nothing in practical application. From everything I've read and matching olr anomalies convection over the tropical Pacific fires along the 28C mark. Which is displaced very far East. Why I'd it anticipated that this process won't follow historical normals The most absolute warmth is in Nino 4, though, with temperatures over 30C. I think that will play a part in keeping the forcing between 160 and 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Except it's not. It's not even close. 2015 is more east based than 1982. I am guessing the historic warmth over the central pacific is throwing people off. Because the 28C line is further East and South than ever year but 1997. This is probably why the numerical models are starting to struggle with where the convection is going to line up. I doubt anything can trump it. I'd mostly worry about the Arctic being pinched off. Low level airmasses will be modulated in part by low level flow off any ocean basin around North America. Evaporation is clearly going to be historic along the STJ. I think storm track will be great. But multiple deformation slop fest's, cold rains, and such Except I disagree with you. Now what? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Except I disagree with you. Now what? Lol It is interesting to go back and look at how the Sept run of the CFS didn't see the past several weeks of warming. The UK seasonal did and it was pretty good last year with SST forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 It is interesting to go back and look at how the Sept run of the CFS didn't see the past several weeks of warming. The UK seasonal did and it was pretty good last year with SST forecast.The lesson is to toss the CFSv2 and all its forcasts this winter, on land and on sea! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Except it's not. It's not even close. 2015 is more east based than 1982. I am guessing the historic warmth over the central pacific is throwing people off. Because the 28C line is further East and South than ever year but 1997. This is probably why the numerical models are starting to struggle with where the convection is going to line up. I doubt anything can trump it. I'd mostly worry about the Arctic being pinched off. Low level airmasses will be modulated in part by low level flow off any ocean basin around North America. Evaporation is clearly going to be historic along the STJ. I think storm track will be great. But multiple deformation slop fest's, cold rains, and such The Arctic doesn't get pinched off. Look at all the warm water S of the Aleutians as you deepen the NEG that jet gets forced over the ridge. The CFS looks Wrong with the height field into eastern Canada , because it's too far east with the neg in the GOA the fact that you force between 160 and 180 means you increase pressure /ridging to the N of the best forcing which would pull the neg in the GOA further west The further west than neg is the further west the height fiend is in western Canada ie the euro so the low level arctic air seeps down the backside of the ridge. It's what -EPO s like to do. The CFS has had issues more than a month out and is the only model at 500 that has that look .( furthest east In Canada ) . You keep ignoring the overall guidance in favor of the warmer US model and it has led you off a cliff . 3.4 and 4 are so warm relative to averages the greatest upward motion is appearing over the top if it. I don't mean to disparage the CFS I am sure the programmers are way smarter than I but I can only tell you from looking at its bias over time it's just too fast and too far east with its depiction of troughs in the GOA. That said 15 to 30 days out the CFS is good. Buy 90 days I am going with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 CFS is showing a very strong mjo induced WWB. Going the distance. This is the end game. This one will decide the fate of this winter. I'm not in any camp. I am simply arguing on the behalf of the basic Physics's of this situation. Also the climate models don't know there is that anomolous water under enso 1-3. An mjo induced WWB centered along 150W going the distance backed by convection moving East with it. Could completely topple Rome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 My guess is we'll have a broad area of forcing centered between 140-160......we can already see forcing is spreading out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The warm pool between 155W and 165W is likely unprecedented... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 The warm pool between 155W and 165W is likely unprecedented...Region 3.4 is at least +3.0C now if not over. The AVHRR has it over +2.9C and it is notorious for being too cold. With another WWB forming and still about a month to go before it peaks in December, this is just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Region 3.4 is at least +3.0C now if not over. The AVHRR has it over +2.9C and it is notorious for being too cold. With another WWB forming and still about a month to go before it peaks in December, this is just crazy my maps have AVHRR at 3.12, and it is still probably a tad too cold...that warm pool is sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 my maps have AVHRR at 3.12, and it is still probably a tad too cold...that warm pool is sick 3.4.png The microwave imagery which is more accurate has region 3.4 at +3.1C too. This is ridiculous warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/strong-warm-surge-and-powerful-storm-next-week-as-el-nio-appears-to- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Warm pool depiction by TAO has been fixed. Hopefully the sensors fix soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Warm pool depiction by TAO has been fixed. Hopefully the sensors fix soon... We are getting close to the peak. Warm pool still moving East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/strong-warm-surge-and-powerful-storm-next-week-as-el-nio-appears-to- The mjo observation is interesting. The models are struggling big time to model the implications of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.