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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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Convection has already returned around the dateline.

olr.anom.7day.gif

That's still pretty far East.

There is also convection across the entire basin to Mexico along the 28C Axis.

3MJkqo4.jpg

I'm guessing the convection disrupts the walker cell and subsequently the trades?

Either way currently the 28C line is running out to 125W at the eqautor and basin wide along 5-7N which is also anomalous.

Hell the 30C line is remarkably to 150W.

Is there evidence that convection will fire over the 30-31C historically large warm pool

Causing subsidence down stream over the 28-30C also historically warm area?

Otherwise wouldn't we see convection go basin wide?

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That convection hasn't been the  primary forcing that split between the IO and West Coast

since October 25th.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 

 

 

There can be multiple zones of strong upper divergence occurring concurrently. The rapid return to central tropical pacific upper divergence over the past couple weeks indicates that the amplified MJO wave perturbation was indeed transient, the mean ENSO forcing cell looks to maintain itself in that general area of the Pacific. The MJO wave forcing will allow strong convection to persist in the East Indian Ocean, due in part to the anomalously warm waters.

 

However, the chi 200hpa anomalies have been negative in the central tropical Pacific since the beginning of this month - a much more rapid reversal than progged by the GFS forecasts in late October.

 

15gcgoi.gif

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The most interesting question is what the hugger to BM ratio will be January 15-March 31.

We can still break even with mostly huggers and big front end thumps. But more BM tracks

in the mix would put us into the above normal snowfall category.

That is where the -NAO or lack of there of will come into play. When it comes to any upcoming storms, we won't necessarily need a dominate -NAO. A transient one would suffice just as well.

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That's still pretty far East.

There is also convection across the entire basin to Mexico along the 28C Axis.

3MJkqo4.jpg

I'm guessing the convection disrupts the walker cell and subsequently the trades?

Either way currently the 28C line is running out to 125W at the eqautor and basin wide along 5-7N which is also anomalous.

Hell the 30C line is remarkably to 150W.

Is there evidence that convection will fire over the 30-31C historically large warm pool

Causing subsidence down stream over the 28-30C also historically warm area?

Otherwise wouldn't we see convection go basin wide?

The 7 day map clearly shows the forcing over to just east of the DL. Still looking good to these weenie eyes.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

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Does anyone really know what in the hell forcing is, what constitutes it?

I mean, it just seems like every time someone pulls up a chart to illustrate a point on the matter, someone else jumps them in short order with a map of another esoteric indicator on the opposite side of the ocean.

Jesus...

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That's still pretty far East.

There is also convection across the entire basin to Mexico along the 28C Axis.

The weekly average I posted is really not that far East. 1997 saw the highest forcing centered around 120 to 140 W. 1957 was more 160 W. 2002 and 2009 saw forcing near the dateline. The image I posted shows the best Forcing over the last week to be between 160 W and 180 W.

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The MJO really weakened the forcing near the D/L and the IO has been doing the primary forcing.

You can see how much stronger the IO forcing has been than two weaker areas split between the

D/L and near Mexico this month.

 

attachicon.gifFC.gif

 

attachicon.gifB.gif

 

attachicon.gifA.gif

 

 

Yes, the more expansive upper divergence cell has been located near 60E; however, much of that -chi 200hpa extends into the subtropical / mid latitude regions of Asia. The most impactful divergence signaling is that which occurs between 5-10N and 5-10S based upon my research. This is why - even though the larger forcing cell is over India - it's still important that the tropical Pacific forcing quickly retrogressed over the past couple weeks. I don't believe you were arguing about the mid latitude impacts, but generally, the 5-10N-5-10S region is more important (IMO) than extra-tropical forcing.

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Yeah, it's weaker between 5N and 5S over the Pacific compared to what we saw in October.

D/L forcing returns in earnest to the Pacific in December according to the latest model runs.

vp.anom.90.5S-5N.gif

Regardless of anything, the El Niño and associated STJ is going to have a huge, overwhelming effect on the long wave pattern this upcoming winter with region 3.4 hitting +3C. It is going to be a main driver, no question about that
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The weekly average I posted is really not that far East. 1997 saw the highest forcing centered around 120 to 140 W. 1957 was more 160 W. 2002 and 2009 saw forcing near the dateline. The image I posted shows the best Forcing over the last week to be between 160 W and 180 W.

If you were forecasting the base state of the NPAC this winter just looking at these charts what would you predict.

Here is climo versus 2015.

hBorSih.jpg

1982, 97, 2015.

hCbuAsK.jpg

2002, 09, 15.

hyYEZ1L.jpg

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If you were forecasting the base state of the NPAC this winter just looking at these charts what would you predict.

Here is climo versus 2015.

hBorSih.jpg

1982, 97, 2015.

hCbuAsK.jpg

2002, 09, 15.

hyYEZ1L.jpg

Clearly, this year is much closer to 02 & 09 forcing, only stronger. Hence, winter closer to those years. Of course, that assumes something else doesn't trump it.
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Clearly, this year is much closer to 02 & 09 forcing, only stronger. Hence, winter closer to those years. Of course, that assumes something else doesn't trump it.

Except it's not.

It's not even close.

2015 is more east based than 1982.

I am guessing the historic warmth over the central pacific is throwing people off.

Because the 28C line is further East and South than ever year but 1997.

This is probably why the numerical models are starting to struggle with where the convection is going to line up.

I doubt anything can trump it.

I'd mostly worry about the Arctic being pinched off.

Low level airmasses will be modulated in part by low level flow off any ocean basin around North America.

Evaporation is clearly going to be historic along the STJ.

I think storm track will be great.

But multiple deformation slop fest's, cold rains, and such

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Looks like convection is having issues staying West.

RfD0Dwm.jpg

Also anomalies mean nothing in practical application.

From everything I've read and matching olr anomalies convection over the tropical Pacific fires along the 28C mark.

Which is displaced very far East.

Why I'd it anticipated that this process won't follow historical normals

The most absolute warmth is in Nino 4, though, with temperatures over 30C. I think that will play a part in keeping the forcing between 160 and 180.

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Except it's not.

It's not even close.

2015 is more east based than 1982.

I am guessing the historic warmth over the central pacific is throwing people off.

Because the 28C line is further East and South than ever year but 1997.

This is probably why the numerical models are starting to struggle with where the convection is going to line up.

I doubt anything can trump it.

I'd mostly worry about the Arctic being pinched off.

Low level airmasses will be modulated in part by low level flow off any ocean basin around North America.

Evaporation is clearly going to be historic along the STJ.

I think storm track will be great.

But multiple deformation slop fest's, cold rains, and such

Except I disagree with you. Now what? Lol
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Except it's not.

It's not even close.

2015 is more east based than 1982.

I am guessing the historic warmth over the central pacific is throwing people off.

Because the 28C line is further East and South than ever year but 1997.

This is probably why the numerical models are starting to struggle with where the convection is going to line up.

I doubt anything can trump it.

I'd mostly worry about the Arctic being pinched off.

Low level airmasses will be modulated in part by low level flow off any ocean basin around North America.

Evaporation is clearly going to be historic along the STJ.

I think storm track will be great.

But multiple deformation slop fest's, cold rains, and such

The Arctic doesn't get pinched off. Look at all the warm water S of the Aleutians as you deepen the NEG that jet gets forced over the ridge. The CFS looks Wrong with the height field into eastern Canada , because it's too far east with the neg in the GOA the fact that you force between 160 and 180 means you increase pressure /ridging to the N of the best forcing which would pull the neg in the GOA further west

The further west than neg is the further west the height fiend is in western Canada ie the euro so the low level arctic air seeps down the backside of the ridge.

It's what -EPO s like to do.

The CFS has had issues more than a month out and is the only model at 500 that has that look .( furthest east In Canada ) .

You keep ignoring the overall guidance in favor of the warmer US model and it has led you off a cliff .

3.4 and 4 are so warm relative to averages the greatest upward motion is appearing over the top if it.

I don't mean to disparage the CFS I am sure the programmers are way smarter than I but I can only tell you from looking at its bias over time it's just too fast and too far east with its depiction of troughs in the GOA.

That said 15 to 30 days out the CFS is good. Buy 90 days I am going with the Euro.

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CFS is showing a very strong mjo induced WWB.

Going the distance.

This is the end game. This one will decide the fate of this winter.

YICQmbB.jpg

I'm not in any camp.

I am simply arguing on the behalf of the basic Physics's of this situation.

Also the climate models don't know there is that anomolous water under enso 1-3.

An mjo induced WWB centered along 150W going the distance backed by convection moving East with it.

Could completely topple Rome

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The warm pool between 155W and 165W is likely unprecedented...

Region 3.4 is at least +3.0C now if not over. The AVHRR has it over +2.9C and it is notorious for being too cold. With another WWB forming and still about a month to go before it peaks in December, this is just crazy
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Region 3.4 is at least +3.0C now if not over. The AVHRR has it over +2.9C and it is notorious for being too cold. With another WWB forming and still about a month to go before it peaks in December, this is just crazy

 

my maps have AVHRR at 3.12, and it is still probably a tad too cold...that warm pool is sick

 

post-66-0-37533400-1447523994_thumb.png

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