Yanksfan Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 40/70 benchmark knows his stuff and he gave solid reasoning. NutleyBlizzard doesn't have a reason behind it other than he wants an epically snowy and cold winter so he just makes posts like that without any meteorological backing The reasoning for my forecast is the summer to winter correlation with the -AO. I feel July's very low negative values bodes well for us this winter not to mention the near record snowfall buildup in Siberia which in due time should help drive down the AO. While I'm not a certified meteorologist (far from it), I've been a weather hobbyist going on 40 years now and have picked up on weather tendencies along the way. Everything we all can agree on is weather is not an exact science. Nobody really knows what's going to happen. All we can do is try and make the best educated guess and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Thanks for the kind words, guys. Snowman, we have butted heads, but its just because we are both passionate about our hobby. My outlook is not really cold anywhere, and is only snowy in the mid atl and the distant interior....up my way it is normal. Wow if I was not the king of ADHD and could put thoughts to paper I would have a very similar outlook. One thing I would do is increase interior totals and decrease mid Atlantic. One thing that will be crucial this winter is elevation with borderline air masses and the glut of miller A's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Looks like the atmosphere is having issues with convection retreating back to the dateline or West of it. 28C is the magic number. GFS struggling right now with so much heat spread across the equatorial basin. The trade forecasts have been total ****. But they are still well aligned with a traditional super nino. Latest weekly OLR data remains very good for a NINO of this magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I see 3.4 temps just surpassed 3 on Tropical Tidbits, which I believe is the first time this fall if not for the event. That's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Wow if I was not the king of ADHD and could put thoughts to paper I would have a very similar outlook. One thing I would do is increase interior totals and decrease mid Atlantic. One thing that will be crucial this winter is elevation with borderline air masses and the glut of miller A's Yes, that is a valid concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Latest weekly OLR data remains very good for a NINO of this magnitude.I guess. Its a lot further East then last November which was historically cold. Last November was petty epic. Had snow cover for 5-6 days. Like a once every 25 to 50 year thing. This November sucks. So does that huge SE ridge. It's screaming lakes cutters and warm cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Very impressive warming in just the last 10 days especially 3.4 and 4 regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The subsurface warm pool continues to build Eastward. That is quire peculiar. The strong weakening of the trades is kicking off again. The 28C line will collapse East and South over the next 10 days over enso 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I hope that waves dies off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I hope that waves dies off.Those forecasts have stunk. It will shift west as the end of the forecast period approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I guess. Its a lot further East then last November which was historically cold. Last November was petty epic. Had snow cover for 5-6 days. Like a once every 25 to 50 year thing. This November sucks. So does that huge SE ridge. It's screaming lakes cutters and warm cutoffs. I said "for a NINO of this magnitude." Last year missed weak criteria, so it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Those forecasts have stunk. It will shift west as the end of the forecast period approaches. I was just thinking 'aloud....not implying anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Those forecasts have stunk. It will shift west as the end of the forecast period approaches. All I have read here over the past month is how warmth is building east and 1.2 is going to skyrocket... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Those forecasts have stunk. It will shift west as the end of the forecast period approaches. Roundy plots have shown much higher skill in ascertaining the week 1-3 forcing pattern. The GFS chi 200hpa forecasts from late October depicted strong subsidence in the central tropical pacific for Nov 1-10th, which was clearly the opposite of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Those forecasts have stunk. It will shift west as the end of the forecast period approaches. Yeah I pointed this out several weeks ago out in the main forum when some were obsessing over the idea of 1+2 and eastern regions taking the ball and running with it. The trade anomalies keep verifying west of the forecasts...they often do. I saw it happen over and over again last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Yeah I pointed this out several weeks ago out in the main forum when some were obsessing over the idea of 1+2 and eastern regions taking the ball and running with it. The trade anomalies keep verifying west of the forecasts...they often do. I saw it happen over and over again last year too. I think that is going to happen more and more moving forward...long term, I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Yeah I pointed this out several weeks ago out in the main forum when some were obsessing over the idea of 1+2 and eastern regions taking the ball and running with it. The trade anomalies keep verifying west of the forecasts...they often do. I saw it happen over and over again last year too.Will , we argued about this from back in early September here. The spread west started in June and never relented . I still think 3 3.4 and 4 increase through early December there is still more subsurface heat that needs to work it's way to the surface . But many here were big proponents of the basin wide inferno . I still think there is a bit more to go before we plateau . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Will , we argued about this from back in early September here. The spread west started in June and never relented . I still think 3 3.4 and 4 increase through early December there is still more subsurface heat that needs to work it's way to the surface . But many here were big proponents of the basin wide inferno . I still think there is a bit more to go before we plateau . I just hope 1.2 is done...still a bit leery of that last wave near the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I just hope 1.2 is done...still a bit leery of that last wave near the end of the month. That will materialize in 3. I expect 3 4 to get to plus 3c . Don't sweat 1.2. It's not going to matter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That will materialize in 3. I expect 3 4 to get to plus 3c . Don't sweat 1.2. It's not going to matter . I'm not sweating it, I would just like to see it collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'm not sweating it, I would just like to see it collapse. The problem is the guidance wanted to collapse 1.2 since July and it hasn't. It's strong but our saving grace has been the explosion west of 100 out to the DL. So I'm saying I haven't been sweating it because although the guidance has been somewhat poor there , the greatest upward motion continues to stay at the DL and If that verifies then the euro will be right. At this point I think it continues to weaken as it has been doing over the past 5 weeks but my attention is now elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The problem is the guidance wanted to collapse 1.2 since July and it hasn't. It's strong but our saving grace has been the explosion west of 100 out to the DL. So I'm saying I haven't been sweating it because although the guidance has been somewhat poor there , the greatest upward motion continues to stay at the DL and If that verifies then the euro will be right. At this point I think it continues to weaken as it has been doing over the past 5 weeks but my attention is now elsewhere. I think we are golden if the forcing is still glued to the dateline come December. I feel as though there will be one window of opportunity in December....how far south and east can avail of it remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The seasonal response to D/L forcing can actually be warm in the early winter and turn colder from January 15th- March 31st. So a warmer December ,if that should happen, isn't a bad sign if the forcing is out near the D/L. It's still a good marker for a change to colder after January 15th if it stays put out there. DEC.gif D500.gif FEBFC.gif FEB.gif I have been trying to convey the message to some ENSO PTSD victims that slow starts are not a death knell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Yeah, any decent winter weather before January 15th in an El Nino is a bonus. Even the record cold and snowy Modoki last winter started mild in December. But it will be interesting to see if the EPS come the end of November follow through on the milder Euro seasonal for December. Even 2002 started a bit rough for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 What ever happened to the good 'ole days when we would have a cold/snowy December followed by the January thaw back to cold again. Lately it seems our winters have been slow to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 What ever happened to the good 'ole days when we would have a cold/snowy December followed by the January thaw back to cold again. Lately it seems our winters have been slow to start.what?! where have you been since 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Looks like convection is having issues staying West. Also anomalies mean nothing in practical application. From everything I've read and matching olr anomalies convection over the tropical Pacific fires along the 28C mark. Which is displaced very far East. Why I'd it anticipated that this process won't follow historical normals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The MJO pulse bumped the strongest forcing off the DL. If the long range CFS is to be believed, then it returns in December. chi200.cfs.all.global.10.png We are going to force between 160 and 180 this winter I am not even going to bother addressing this next wild goose chase .We forced at 140 in 97, that's not in the guidabce , anywhere , and it doesn't fit the record heat in 3.4 and 4 so it's NOT happening. I promise this is an easy forecast. What that means in terms of sensible winter weather , well that's never easy . But the above is what it Is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The MJO pulse bumped the strongest forcing off the DL. If the long range CFS is to be believed, then it returns in December. chi200.cfs.all.global.10.png Convection has already returned around the dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'd be shocked if this season didn't end up fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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