The_Global_Warmer Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 this looks absolutely nothing like a modoki. the word should be banned from the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Hmm... If you look at the third downwelling (the very large one exceeding 2.5), you can early see the heat content weakening as it hits the S.A. coast. However, this may be due to the fact that there was a lot of upwelling there, which faded quickly upon the arrival of the third downwelling. The question is, will the fourth downwelling which is currently pushing east weaken or persist its anomalies as it hits S.A.? This will determine if the Niño 1+2 will skyrocket or continue to plummet. . pretty consistent . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Outlook Very descriptive read. Detailed everything down to a tee. Glad to have read it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Very descriptive read. Detailed everything down to a tee. Glad to have read it Props for reading the whole damn thing because I didn't event want to when I had to proof read I feel as though anything composed for public consumption should assume that the reader knows nothing...the piece should "build from the ground up", so to speak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Outlook Ray , really great work man . You provided us with great reasoning behind the forecast and it was a great read . A- I took 2 points off for inserting poppy. jk I really enjoyed it , and thanks for sharing the hard work . otherwise an A+ man . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Props for reading the whole damn thing because I didn't event want to when I had to proof read I feel as though anything composed for public consumption should assume that the reader knows nothing...the piece should "build from the ground up", so to speak... Lol it took me about 10 minutes. But it was worth it honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 The +PDO is so strong on the JAMSTEC, that it keeps it positive into the summer as La Nina conditions try to develop. Also note all the warm waters over the Tropical Atlantic with possible implications for the hurricane season if they verify that warm. ssta.glob.JJA2016.1nov2015.gif Next cane season should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Yeah, a developing Nina with such warm tropical SST's would be more active than the last few years. I am also interested to see if the +PDO can hold on until the 16-17 winter with the potential for a +PDO La Nina like 05-06 or 84-85. I'll pass. Jus give me the EPO like '08 and '09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Looking at the latest anomalies, it looks like region 3.4 is up to +2.9C now. This Nino is a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 CFS shifted over to initializing on November 1 and shows slight warming or plateauing into December. Model initializes with OISST so looks like a record +2.9 C or +3.0 C possible in Niño 3.4 in the weeklies dataset (OISST). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Really impressive... https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/664454487994560512 October tropical (30S-30N, 0-360) SSTs about 0.25C warmer than any other year on record (since 1950). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 CFS shifted over to initializing on November 1 and shows slight warming or plateauing into December. Model initializes with OISST so looks like a record +2.9 C or +3.0 C possible in Niño 3.4 in the weeklies dataset (OISST). nino34Mon.gif An early/mid December peak is looking very likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 An early/mid December peak is looking very likely Yes. I think we're all pretty much coming into agreement. Hell of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Really impressive... https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/664454487994560512 October tropical (30S-30N, 0-360) SSTs about 0.25C warmer than any other year on record (since 1950). It's record breaking when one considers the strongly positive PDO, coupled w/ the most intense El Nino since 1950 for a basin-wide event. The other events of this magnitude were more region 3/1-2 based like 1982 and 1997. My original call for the ERSST peak back in April/May was approximately +1.9c for the ONI; however, I now think it will probably be +2.0c or +2.1c. I expect November's monthly ERSST value will probably come in around +2.3c, and if December maintains a similar intensity, or falls slightly to +2.2c, the peak trimonthly ONI would be around +2.1c. So as we reflect upon earlier debates in this thread from spring 2015, it will probably turn out to be a bit of a compromise in terms of the early forecasts. Those that favored an east based event were incorrect, but those who favored a non-super ONI peak will have underestimated. The resultant will likely be a "super" (2.0c+) basin-wide event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Warmest anomalies continue to slowly nudge west since this Spring/Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Outlook Very well written outlook, Ray, with robust reasoning supporting your assertions. The additional element of humor was a nice touch. Hopefully you will verify well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 This is based on OISST, and has been running very close to weekly updates...maybe just a tad under...based on this week so far, Monday should be a 2.9 or 3.0..but will have to see what happens today through Sunday,..,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 It's record breaking when one considers the strongly positive PDO, coupled w/ the most intense El Nino since 1950 for a basin-wide event. The other events of this magnitude were more region 3/1-2 based like 1982 and 1997. My original call for the ERSST peak back in April/May was approximately +1.9c for the ONI; however, I now think it will probably be +2.0c or +2.1c. I expect November's monthly ERSST value will probably come in around +2.3c, and if December maintains a similar intensity, or falls slightly to +2.2c, the peak trimonthly ONI would be around +2.1c. So as we reflect upon earlier debates in this thread from spring 2015, it will probably turn out to be a bit of a compromise in terms of the early forecasts. Those that favored an east based event were incorrect, but those who favored a non-super ONI peak will have underestimated. The resultant will likely be a "super" (2.0c+) basin-wide event. Yeah, the record October NP SST's covered the PDO region down to Nino 4. It's also very impressive to see record SST's over portions of the IO and Atlantic at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 This is based on OISST, and has been running very close to weekly updates...maybe just a tad under...based on this week so far, Monday should be a 2.9 or 3.0..but will have to see what happens today through Sunday,..,. whoa.PNG Agreed, looks like we are going to witness an all time first in meteorological history if region 3.4 really does top +3.0C. We potentially may never see this again in our lifetimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Agreed, looks like we are going to witness an all time first in meteorological history if region 3.4 really does top +3.0C. We potentially may never see this again in our lifetimes... unless it tanks this weekend, we should hit 3.0 monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Outlook Very good read. Good luck with your forecast. The only issue I have is that I would of increased snowfall totals in New York and Philly by 50%. While I do think we start of slow coming out of the gate, I believe we go gangbusters after the New Year as a result of a strengthening -AO/-NAO couplet along with a strong sub tropical jet already in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Where is the support for it? Why should it go gangbusters? That isn't a good read, but a intellectual hope.40/70 benchmark knows his stuff and he gave solid reasoning. NutleyBlizzard doesn't have a reason behind it other than he wants an epically snowy and cold winter so he just makes posts like that without any meteorological backing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 It's record breaking when one considers the strongly positive PDO, coupled w/ the most intense El Nino since 1950 for a basin-wide event. The other events of this magnitude were more region 3/1-2 based like 1982 and 1997. My original call for the ERSST peak back in April/May was approximately +1.9c for the ONI; however, I now think it will probably be +2.0c or +2.1c. I expect November's monthly ERSST value will probably come in around +2.3c, and if December maintains a similar intensity, or falls slightly to +2.2c, the peak trimonthly ONI would be around +2.1c. So as we reflect upon earlier debates in this thread from spring 2015, it will probably turn out to be a bit of a compromise in terms of the early forecasts. Those that favored an east based event were incorrect, but those who favored a non-super ONI peak will have underestimated. The resultant will likely be a "super" (2.0c+) basin-wide event. Yea, my original summer call was 1.8 in December....looks like 2.0 or a bit btr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 If you guys would actually look at what he wrote, instead of just bashing him , he posted " result of a strengthening -AO/-NAO couplet along with a strong sub tropical jet already in place". That is where his support comes from for a cold and snowy 2nd half of winter. Sure, he might have a biasness towards cold and snowy, but he backed it up. If he had just said "historic 2nd half of winter" without any support, then go ahead bash him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I find it incredible the people who don't have the guts to put a forecast out as eloquently as he did find ways to discredit his prediction. There were credible numbers, statistics and facts backing it up throughout the entire outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Yea, my original summer call was 1.8 in December....looks like 2.0 or a bit btr.Good job on your winter outlook btw. Very impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Looks like the atmosphere is having issues with convection retreating back to the dateline or West of it. 28C is the magic number. GFS struggling right now with so much heat spread across the equatorial basin. The trade forecasts have been total ****. But they are still well aligned with a traditional super nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 the cfs is on the cool side of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Thanks for the kind words, guys. Snowman, we have butted heads, but its just because we are both passionate about our hobby. My outlook is not really cold anywhere, and is only snowy in the mid atl and the distant interior....up my way it is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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