40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 A true Modoki is when 1.2 and 4 are actually BN and the central basin is AN . However basin wide forcing is closer to Modoki style forcing so the result at 500 tends to act in a similar fashion , but this NINO on the surface is basin wide. Same page. FYI, I can not post, but I have screen shotted juxtapositions of the J, F, M euro data from the past two monthly cycles, and the only change that I can discern is that everything is retrograded just a hair west southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Same page. FYI, I can not post, but I have screen shotted juxtapositions of the J, F, M euro data from the past two monthly cycles, and the only change that I can discern is that everything is retrograded just a hair west southwest. Agree , the highest heights center just W of the OCT 500 mb seasonal forecast near Hudson Bay . The NEG that is centered over Alaska which is in line with the early guidance will come SW over the next 6 weeks . Even the CFS brings the NEG S . But over time the ridge in the East " should get shunted " N . The CFS and Euro differ in that the Euro heads the POS at 500 N then W , but the CFS is stationary over HB and on east .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Agree , the highest heights center just W of the OCT 500 mb seasonal forecast near Hudson Bay . The NEG that is centered over Alaska which is in line with the early guidance will come SW over the next 6 weeks . Even the CFS brings the NEG S . But over time the ridge in the East " should get shunted " N . The CFS and Euro differ in that the Euro heads the POS at 500 N then W , but the CFS is stationary over HB and on east .. Open-shut case. This is an easy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 There has been insane warming at 155W over the last week...that is pretty much responsible for the surge in region 4....nino today is as strong as it has been all fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Maps , compliments of OH weather . A basin wide and Modoki style forcing tend to give you a similar response at 500 on the east coast . This a strong basin wide NINO with record 3.4 and 4 warmth being recorded . We are all aware . If we force at 140 - then we are wrong and the forecast dies . If we force between 160 - 170 we have a chance of being right . Nothing more , nothing less . After 80 pages , there`s plenty of bump troll material here , so we can circle back in Feb and see how it worked out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Chris, still look good. Let me see if I can get the ok from my source.... Thanks Ray. I really appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Thanks Ray. I really appreciate it. Can't post, but just view graphics from last month and picture the ridge center west of HB a tad further wsw , and the anomaly perhaps a hair greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Hmm... If you look at the third downwelling (the very large one exceeding 2.5), you can early see the heat content weakening as it hits the S.A. coast. However, this may be due to the fact that there was a lot of upwelling there, which faded quickly upon the arrival of the third downwelling. The question is, will the fourth downwelling which is currently pushing east weaken or persist its anomalies as it hits S.A.? This will determine if the Niño 1+2 will skyrocket or continue to plummet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Hmm... If you look at the third downwelling (the very large one exceeding 2.5), you can early see the heat content weakening as it hits the S.A. coast. However, this may be due to the fact that there was a lot of upwelling there, which faded quickly upon the arrival of the third downwelling. The question is, will the fourth downwelling which is currently pushing east weaken or persist its anomalies as it hits S.A.? This will determine if the Niño 1+2 will skyrocket or continue to plummet. that map is centered on 11/4....do you have anything more recent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Gold stuff in here http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2015/08/a-deeper-look-at-top-10-el-ninos-since.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 that map is centered on 11/4....do you have anything more recent? No, but expect a newer version (11/9) to arrive in 3-4 days, possibly even earlier. We do have TAO data, but the sensors have recently died off over a large portion of the eastern equatorial Pacific, making it unreliable for now. Hopefully the sensors get fixed soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Just finishing up my outlook. Anyone have a source for tabular seasonal snowfall total data going back to at least 1940 for: Albany, Harford, Providence, ORH, Burlington, VT, Portland, ME, Concord, NH and KBED? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 No, but expect a newer version (11/9) to arrive in 3-4 days, possibly even earlier. We do have TAO data, but the sensors have recently died off over a large portion of the eastern equatorial Pacific, making it unreliable for now. Hopefully the sensors get fixed soon. likely Global Warmer and one of his shipmates using whale spears confiscated from Japanese fishing vessels to destroy sensors not responding as expected to progged WWBs (relax GW, just bustin' your chops) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 likely Global Warmer and one of his shipmates using whale spears confiscated from Japanese fishing vessels to destroy sensors not responding as expected to progged WWBs (relax GW, just bustin' your chops) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Official SOI value for October was -20.2, which places this El Nino among a very small list of events that achieved a -20 or lower monthly SOI. There were only 4 other such occurrences since 1940. Those SOI monthly minima were: -29.4 in 1940-41 -22.6 in 1965-66 -33.3 in 1982-83 -28.5 in 1997-98 Over the past couple days, SOI values have surged positive for the first time in awhile. 30-day running SOI is up from -20 to -12. However, the question becomes: have we seen our monthly SOI minimum, or this a transient pattern? 1982 and 1997 featured very negative monthlies through winter as the events maintained intensity. 1965 had a strongly negative November SOI, then rapidly trended more positive for the ensuing three months (into the -5 to -10 range). My guess is that we're seeing a transient interruption, and strongly negative SOI dailies will resume. It's possible we haven't achieved our minimum monthly yet, although, if not Oct or this month, I expect it would be December. The weakening of this +ENSO event will occur more quickly than 82/97, but more slowly than 1965. However, 1965's trimonthly peak occurred in OND, which I anticipate will occur with this event (though at a higher value). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Official SOI value for October was -20.2, which places this El Nino among a very small list of events that achieved a -20 or lower monthly SOI. There were only 4 other such occurrences since 1940. Those SOI monthly minima were: -29.4 in 1940-41 -22.6 in 1965-66 -33.3 in 1982-83 -28.5 in 1997-98 Over the past couple days, SOI values have surged positive for the first time in awhile. 30-day running SOI is up from -20 to -12. However, the question becomes: have we seen our monthly SOI minimum, or this a transient pattern? 1982 and 1997 featured very negative monthlies through winter as the events maintained intensity. 1965 had a strongly negative November SOI, then rapidly trended more positive for the ensuing three months (into the -5 to -10 range). My guess is that we're seeing a transient interruption, and strongly negative SOI dailies will resume. It's possible we haven't achieved our minimum monthly yet, although, if not Oct or this month, I expect it would be December. The weakening of this +ENSO event will occur more quickly than 82/97, but more slowly than 1965. However, 1965's trimonthly peak occurred in OND, which I anticipate will occur with this event (though at a higher value). the lowest daily soi totals don't come close to 1997-98... https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Official SOI value for October was -20.2, which places this El Nino among a very small list of events that achieved a -20 or lower monthly SOI. There were only 4 other such occurrences since 1940. Those SOI monthly minima were: -29.4 in 1940-41 -22.6 in 1965-66 -33.3 in 1982-83 -28.5 in 1997-98 Over the past couple days, SOI values have surged positive for the first time in awhile. 30-day running SOI is up from -20 to -12. However, the question becomes: have we seen our monthly SOI minimum, or this a transient pattern? 1982 and 1997 featured very negative monthlies through winter as the events maintained intensity. 1965 had a strongly negative November SOI, then rapidly trended more positive for the ensuing three months (into the -5 to -10 range). My guess is that we're seeing a transient interruption, and strongly negative SOI dailies will resume. It's possible we haven't achieved our minimum monthly yet, although, if not Oct or this month, I expect it would be December. The weakening of this +ENSO event will occur more quickly than 82/97, but more slowly than 1965. However, 1965's trimonthly peak occurred in OND, which I anticipate will occur with this event (though at a higher value). when are you coming out with your winter outlook? look forward to reading it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 November JAMSTEC out. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 WTF. This is a friggin furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 WTF. This is a friggin furnace.Avant loves warm. Pay no attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 WTF. This is a friggin furnace. Only model showing it. Troll galore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Thankfully one does not have to go too far back to see stuff like this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 the lowest daily soi totals don't come close to 1997-98... https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt I agree, Uncle. By a number of metrics, the 1997-98 event remains in a class of its own, in my opinion. when are you coming out with your winter outlook? look forward to reading it Thanks, thunderbolt. Hopefully by the end of this week. Research is essentially compiled, I just need to write it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Thankfully one does not have to go too far back to see stuff like this ... This is pretty far away from what is being advertised. I think the warm signal is legit, no wishcasting here and I don't necessarily love warmth, it's nice to finally change the deck up after the past three winters tho. Reality check up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I agree, Uncle. By a number of metrics, the 1997-98 event remains in a class of its own, in my opinion. Thanks, thunderbolt. Hopefully by the end of this week. Research is essentially compiled, I just need to write it up. sounds good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 This is pretty far away from what is being advertised. I think the warm signal is legit, no wishcasting here and I don't necessarily love warmth, it's nice to finally change the deck up after the past three winters tho. Just saying , the above are last years seasonal outlooks if one cares which of the guidance verified better . ( Jamstec vs the CFS ) . The CFS is really alone in the winter long blowtorch camp . I see if it N and D, I just don`t see it in J - M `that`s all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 In another sense, if the CFS is wrong it will change its tune very soon for DJF. It's fairly accurate month to month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 In another sense, if the CFS is wrong it will change its tune very soon for DJF. It's fairly accurate month to month.It usually changes just before the new month starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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