Deck Pic Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Thank you. forcing is generally where we want it...a matter of whether it stays there.....I think a lot depends on the continued strength and extent of the warm pool at 170W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The shift west continues. Its as if people felt like there was an actual chance the Nov 6th-7th forecasts could have made a difference even tho I have been relentlessly ridiculed as if that was impossible. Never the less nothing much has changed. We are getting close to the peak of this nino anomaly wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Damn that nino is well defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 One has to be cautious about extending the present into the future. Two weeks down the road, the ensembles are split on whether the AO will go negative or stay positive. The ensembles are in strong agreement that the AO will descend from current levels. Historically, November 1978 featured a record AO+. The AO was above +3 on November 22. On November 25, it had fallen to -1.212. A day later, it was -2.138. From that point through mid-December, there were short-lived blocks. On December 19, 1978, a prolonged period of blocking set in. Transient block isn't going to cut it this year, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Transient block isn't going to cut it this year, imho. there was one around December 12th 1982 the same time NYC picked up 3" of snow with more to the south...the ao hit a low on 12/12/82...the nao was positive 30 of 31 days in December 82...the ao was negative 1/29 to 2/26/83...the nao was negative from 2/2 to 2/21/83...we need the ao/nao to be negative in February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Read HM's new tweet and retweet. There is a very strong stratospheric polar vortex right now that is forecast to get even stronger. That definitely does not bode well for a -AO/NAO: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/663831265540444160 The good news is that we are also seeing a strengthening Siberian High in response to the +SAI/SCE. We may see more perturbations of the stratospheric vortex toward the end of the month, if Cohen's theory holds up this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Damn that nino is well defined. Yes this nino is absolutely beautiful. Hell of a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Transient block isn't going to cut it this year, imho. It's too soon to be sure about blocking. I agree that transient blocking might not be enough, especially if the Pacific is hostile. Fortunately, the PDO+ makes a PNA+ more likely than not. That's one potentially helpful variable. We'll have to see how the AO evolves. The current strongly positive figure has no bearing on whether or not the winter will feature a predominantly positive or negative AO. November 1978 set the record for highest November AO average and the highest daily figure in November. Yet the winter featured a lot of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The Pacific will not be hostile, outside of December and possibly into some of January. I grow more confident of some decent blocking every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The actual ssts in 2009, 2015, and 1997. 2015 looks a lot closer to 1997. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This year is in a class by itself since very strong El Ninos since 1950 have been east-based and not basin-wide like this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This year is in a class by itself since very strong El Ninos since 1950 have been east-based and not basin-wide like this year. post-564-0-44747400-1447072418.gif Chris do you have the forcing for 97 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Many thanks man. I think the CFS , which is further east than the Euro centers the forcing around 160 if you avg D J F. I'm not saying the CFS is right but it too is seeing the warmer anomalies In 3.4 and 4 and I'm sure that helps in the more basin style forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Does anyone know where to find the historic weekly tabular date for ENSO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 The actual ssts in 2009, 2015, and 1997. 2015 looks a lot closer to 1997. . Location of the max anomalies actually aligns better with 2009. There are a million different perspectives here, but I think it just co mrs down to the area of greatest convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Guys, great images.....I am going to use some of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Does anyone know where to find the historic weekly tabular date for ENSO? I used to have it bookmarked but can't seem to find it...I do have monthly handy. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Does anyone know where to find the historic weekly tabular date for ENSO? Weekly from 1990, I thought I had pre 1990 but can't find that, yet... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Weekly from 1990, I thought I had pre 1990 but can't find that, yet... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for As far as I know, there is no pre-1990 weekly data. CPC's full list can be found at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 As far as I know, there is no pre-1990 weekly data. CPC's full list can be found at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ You must be right, I must have been thinking of the monthly enso readings back to 1870 I posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 As far as I know, there is no pre-1990 weekly data. CPC's full list can be found at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ Thank you. I haven't laid eyes upon that since the fall of 2006 lol Perfect timing, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 How does it look for additional 1.2 warming? Is it still trending downward? I know it may warm again in a couple of weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I have a theory about El Nino based on the Southwestern Monsoon - the location of the coldest anatomies winter seem to flip between the NE/MW and the SW based on whether the SW monsoon was active (wet) during the summer. I live in Albuquerque. Look at the years Albuquerque had a wet monsoon (rains June 15-Sept 30), vs. October 2015. It's by no means a perfect match, but we had a wet monsoon this Summer...and sure enough we're closer to the wet monsoon analogs for October. Am I crazy to think this could continue into the winter? I'm not trying to imply the monsoon determines the location of the warmth, just that is seems like a decent indicator for whether the country will be warm or cold generally in the Fall of an El Nino year. Wet Monsoons in the Southwest during El Nino (1931-2013 base) October 2015 Actuals Dry Monsoon in the Southwest, October Composites Wet Monsoon + El Nino in Winter: Dry Monsoon + El Nino in Winter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 How does it look for additional 1.2 warming? Is it still trending downward? I know it may warm again in a couple of weeks... Sorry so late just saw this , it`s over . 3 3.4 and 4 should continue to warm for a few more weeks . 850mb winds have also shifted west , so what surfaces may not make it east of 120 . ( 850 Map courtesy of snowlover ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 Sorry so late just saw this , it`s over . 3 3.4 and 4 should continue to warm for a few more weeks . 850mb winds have also shifted west , so what surfaces may not make it east of 120 . ( 850 Map courtesy of snowlover ) The predicted WWB keeps getting stronger over Nino 3.4 and 3. My gut, 3.4 is at minimum +3.0C come December, if not higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Def one for the record books in 3.4 and 4 And ONI 2nd place ? Great event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Sorry so late just saw this , it`s over . 3 3.4 and 4 should continue to warm for a few more weeks . 850mb winds have also shifted west , so what surfaces may not make it east of 120 . ( 850 Map courtesy of snowlover ) Isn't the true def. of a modoki a heat sandwich? ie....hot in the middle, cool on the ends? Obviously not there in terms of ssts, but if forcing has us surging in that direction.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Ray, did the updated Euro keep the same forecast for December that you posted in your discussion that you linked to a while back? Is there anyway that you can post the new monthlies as of the 8th on that same link? The November Euro general call of SW trough Eastern ridge is working out. It's just verifying more amplified than the old November monthly was showing. Chris, still look good. Let me see if I can get the ok from my source.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Isn't the true def. of a modoki a heat sandwich? ie....hot in the middle, cool on the ends? Obviously not there in terms of ssts, but if forcing has us surging in that direction.... A true Modoki is when 1.2 and 4 are actually BN and the central basin is AN . However basin wide forcing is closer to Modoki style forcing so the result at 500 tends to act in a similar fashion , but this NINO on the surface is basin wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 this looks absolutely nothing like a modoki. the word should be banned from the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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