bluewave Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The 30.3°C SSTs in Region 4 is also the highest ever on the weeklies. Just an amazing amount of SST warmth for the Nino 4 region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Just an amazing amount of SST warmth for the Nino 4 region. pac_oisst_current.png The absolute temperatures translate to SST's of around 86.5-87F in that region, when typically, the normal is closer to 83F, and in more robust La Nina years, can probably fall below 80F in spots. Given we're talking about an already very high temperature, the difference between 80F water and 87F water is significant [proof is behavior of cyclones over each], with the latter possessing much more available potential energy. This energy is often manifested in the development of tropical convection, from which, the heat is transferred into the atmosphere. That image demonstrates why the tropical Pacific contains much more value than the NE PAC; waters of 11C do not have the capability of significantly influencing deep convective processes. They can induce positive feedback loops in which pressures are raised or lowered in a relative sense, but the tropics govern the atmospheric pattern over that domain for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The shift west continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The shift west continues. Yep....impressive whats going on west of 120... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The shift west continues. This is truly fascinating. I really had doubted this, but it's happening. I can't wait to see the true results of this westward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 This is truly fascinating. I really had doubted this, but it's happening. I can't wait to see the true results of this westward shift. Persistence based forecasting seems to really be the way to go with this El Nino. Over the last 3 months, the pattern has been remarkably consistent focusing the highest reductions in the trade winds relative to average W. of 120 W. Looks like this reduction in the trade winds will be no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Persistence based forecasting seems to really be the way to go with this El Nino. Over the last 3 months, the pattern has been remarkably consistent focusing the highest reductions in the trade winds relative to average W. of 120 W. Looks like this reduction in the trade winds will be no different. Not only that, but the blue colors to the east should signal another drop in ENSO 1.2 in the near future, which is good news. Relax Global Warmer, I see the light yellows before the blues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Very encouraging developments indeed with the continued westward shift of the warmest anomalies. Dateline forcing is all but assured now. Anyone else have the feeling a prolific winter event is in the offing in the coming months? After all an El Nino such as this one with favorable forcing, one would think simply wouldn't just disappear into the night without repercussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 Very encouraging developments indeed with the continued westward shift of the warmest anomalies. Dateline forcing is all but assured now. Anyone else have the feeling a prolific winter event is in the offing in the coming months? After all an El Nino such as this one with favorable forcing, one would think simply wouldn't just disappear into the night without repercussions.Nothing is assured in weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 I think 3.4 gets to plus 3c before this quits and just wow at seeing plus 1.7c in R4 , that`s epic . No wonder why the forcing is just shunted out that way , the D/L region is on fire . If I'm not mistaken the warmest reading ever on record for 3.4 is +2.9C, hit during the 82-83 Nino. I agree that we see this one break that record at +3C, possibly even higher by December.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 If I'm not mistaken the warmest reading ever on record for 3.4 is +2.9C, hit during the 82-83 Nino. I agree that we see this one break that record at +3C, possibly even higher by December.... I think 3 3.4 and 4 run into mid Dec . We broke R4 I think we break 3.4 as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Quick Question: Are the region temperatures that are recorded simply the highest in that region, or are they the average of the temperatures in that entire region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Nothing is assured in weather didn't you apply just the other day it was going to be a warm and less snowy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Is there a 500 image for the NMME? I'm more interested in that than surface temperature anomalies. I can't believe people still use surface temperature anomalies on seasonal models. The only time they have value is when we're at the end of a month and it's forecasting for the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Very encouraging developments indeed with the continued westward shift of the warmest anomalies. Dateline forcing is all but assured now. Anyone else have the feeling a prolific winter event is in the offing in the coming months? After all an El Nino such as this one with favorable forcing, one would think simply wouldn't just disappear into the night without repercussions. Don't agree...forcing will be between 140-160...the core anomalies are too far east...It isn't like this magically became a west based Nino...biggest anomalies are near 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Quick Question: Are the region temperatures that are recorded simply the highest in that region, or are they the average of the temperatures in that entire region? They're a mean of SST's in that geographic region. Region 4 is a rather expansive area that stretches from 160E to approximately 150W. Thus, there are SST's both higher and lower than the recorded mean. Parts of region 4 currently have values of 31C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 didn't you apply just the other day it was going to be a warm and less snowy winterThat's definitely not what I said but ok. I said I would not predict a cold and snowy winter myself based on how strong this Nino is nothing more nothing less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Persistence based forecasting seems to really be the way to go with this El Nino. Over the last 3 months, the pattern has been remarkably consistent focusing the highest reductions in the trade winds relative to average W. of 120 W. Looks like this reduction in the trade winds will be no different. You can see how the 925 mb winds in October E of 140W favored the warmer west scenario that we are seeing now instead of the east-based 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 That's definitely not what I said but ok. I said I would not predict a cold and snowy winter myself based on how strong this Nino is nothing more nothing less Cough Cough ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Paul (anyone), where do you find the forcing data, and forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 A +AO/NAO "like last year" is generally very unlikely because of its magnitude; it was record breaking, I think. You can't find an indicator in favor of a positive AO/NAO, aside from the el nino intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 You can't find an indicator in favor of a positive AO/NAO, aside from the el nino intensity.Read HM's new tweet and retweet. There is a very strong stratospheric polar vortex right now that is forecast to get even stronger. That definitely does not bode well for a -AO/NAO: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/663831265540444160 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Paul (anyone), where do you find the forcing data, and forecasts? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Read HM's new tweet and retweet. There is a very strong stratospheric polar vortex right now that is forecast to get even stronger. That definitely does not bode well for a -AO/NAO: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/663831265540444160 And Sam Lillo said it's climo for that to happen. So??? https://twitter.com/splillo/status/663857272125190144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 You can't find an indicator in favor of a positive AO/NAO, aside from the el nino intensity. Only indicator for a +AO is the +QBO/low solar is the worst combo for a SSW. But, yeah, Nino/SCE/SAI/low sea ice is all favorable for winter time AO...will be interesting to see what wins. If we don't see some solid strat warmings by early Dec it might make for a long winter. Cohen sounds real bullish on his blog today, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Only indicator for a +AO is the +QBO/low solar is the worst combo for a SSW. But, yeah, Nino/SCE/SAI/low sea ice is all favorable for winter time AO...will be interesting to see what wins. If we don't see some solid strat warmings by early Dec it might make for a long winter. Cohen sounds real bullish on his blog today, FWIW.Good. At least there's something concrete on which he can be graded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Read HM's new tweet and retweet. There is a very strong stratospheric polar vortex right now that is forecast to get even stronger. That definitely does not bode well for a -AO/NAO: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/663831265540444160 One has to be cautious about extending the present into the future. Two weeks down the road, the ensembles are split on whether the AO will go negative or stay positive. The ensembles are in strong agreement that the AO will descend from current levels. Historically, November 1978 featured a record AO+. The AO was above +3 on November 22. On November 25, it had fallen to -1.212. A day later, it was -2.138. From that point through mid-December, there were short-lived blocks. On December 19, 1978, a prolonged period of blocking set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Only indicator for a +AO is the +QBO/low solar is the worst combo for a SSW. But, yeah, Nino/SCE/SAI/low sea ice is all favorable for winter time AO...will be interesting to see what wins. If we don't see some solid strat warmings by early Dec it might make for a long winter. Cohen sounds real bullish on his blog today, FWIW. Well, no sign of a -AO for probably the first half of Dec in the Weeklies today, eh? Good thing most everyone was predicting a pretty meh Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Only indicator for a +AO is the +QBO/low solar is the worst combo for a SSW. But, yeah, Nino/SCE/SAI/low sea ice is all favorable for winter time AO...will be interesting to see what wins. If we don't see some solid strat warmings by early Dec it might make for a long winter. Cohen sounds real bullish on his blog today, FWIW. Yes, true.....thanks for reminding me. I am very iffy on QBO, though....we know so little about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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