Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[snowman19]

Don, this is a classic east-based El Niño, Alan posted this on twitter, but look at the eastern region warmth compared to the western region warmth in that graph, the western regions are cooler than the eastern ones. This is a huge change from the Ninos we have seen since 2000. Up until this year, they have been largely modokis. Link: https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/611219866066915328

[GaWx]

 Looking at the SOI outlook for June:

  Per the latest model consensus with an emphasis on the Euro, there is still no indication that the SOI is headed back to the strongly -SOI's that dominated most of May at least through ~6/16. So, as of now the projection for June 1-16 is for at most a modestly negative SOI. This raises the chance that June overall won't be a strongly -SOI month. IF that were to occur, it would represent a significant + diversion of this June's SOI from the solidly to strongly -SOI consensus of June for the nine analogs that I've found that were either (oncoming) 2nd year strong/super or standalone oncoming superstrong Nino's:

 

1997: -24.3

1987: -17.9

1982: -17.2

1972: -10.9

1940: -17.2

1905: -27.7

1896: -27.0

1888: -14.4

1877:   -7.0

 

 By the way, the July #'s were similar: -9.0, -17.3, -17.9, -17.3, -14.3,  -19.8,  -19.1, -15.5, -9.5

Per the 0Z 6/22 Euro, there look to be more strongly -SOI days over the next few with a bottom ~6/25-6 in the high -30's to low -40's before a rise back to near the -15 to -10 range 6/30. Based on these projections, my first rough estimate for the June SOI as a whole is for -7 to -9, which would be quite a comeback into negative territory after having been +5 MTD as late as 6/15. Regarding how this June would compare to past either 2nd year Nino's that were strong to superstrong or standalone superstrong going back to 1877-8 (nine years in the sample..see list above), this would be in range but near the lowest magnitude of negative for June, which was -7.0 in 6/1877. The average for the sample of nine is -18. It will be interesting to see how July gets going. It looks to start pretty negative with perhaps -10's on 7/2.

[nzucker]

Don, this is a classic east-based El Niño, Alan posted this on twitter, but look at the eastern region warmth compared to the western region warmth in that graph, the western regions are cooler than the eastern ones. This is a huge change from the Ninos we have seen since 2000. Up until this year, they have been largely modokis. Link: https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/611219866066915328

Ninos always start out east-based and then become more west based in time...so you can't compare early ENSO events to mature ones.

[PB GFI]

Don, this is a classic east-based El Niño, Alan posted this on twitter, but look at the eastern region warmth compared to the western region warmth in that graph, the western regions are cooler than the eastern ones. This is a huge change from the Ninos we have seen since 2000. Up until this year, they have been largely modokis. Link: https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/611219866066915328

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[PB GFI]

[PB GFI]

[snowman19]

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Yes that's why I said by and large, in the 2000s they have been central based or west based modokis. I'm aware of 2009, I didn't say all

[PB GFI]

It is not uncommon for the warmth to be greater early on in the eastern region . The models have been impressive in these regions .

But when you look at the modeling from the fall into Jan you see the steep drop in the 3.4 region and if the 1.2 region ends up cooler that is what will matter this winter .

As far as this Nino , I have opined in the past that 1.8 was where I thought the 3.4 region would end up . 2 does not seem impossible . A strong Nino is occurring .

But I will stand on 1.8 until we get closer .

[donsutherland1]

Don, this is a classic east-based El Niño, Alan posted this on twitter, but look at the eastern region warmth compared to the western region warmth in that graph, the western regions are cooler than the eastern ones. This is a huge change from the Ninos we have seen since 2000. Up until this year, they have been largely modokis. Link: https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/611219866066915328

Right now, at least for me, It's too soon to know for sure. Recent El Niño events saw Region 1+2 start out very warm only to cool. The 2009-10 El Niño saw Region 1+2 anomalies peak in early August and the 2014-15 weak El Niño event had a mid-June Region 1+2 peak. Right now, Region 1+2 is continuing to warm (now +2.7°C). If ENSO Region 1+2 is maintaining +1°C-+2°C or above anomalies in October, then it will appear that a basin wide, not Central Pacific-oriented, El Niño is underway.

[snowman19]

Right now, at least for me, It's too soon to know for sure. Recent El Niño events saw Region 1+2 start out very warm only to cool. The 2009-10 El Niño saw Region 1+2 anomalies peak in early August and the 2014-15 weak El Niño event had a mid-June Region 1+2 peak. Right now, Region 1+2 is continuing to warm (now +2.7°C). If ENSO Region 1+2 is maintaining +1°C-+2°C or above anomalies in October, then it will appear that a basin wide, not Central Pacific-oriented, El Niño is underway.

I agree with you there, if come October, region 1+2 and region 3 are still warmer than regions 3.4 and 4, then it will be undeniable that we are in an east-based Nino. As of today, region 3 and region 1+2 ssts are the warmest they have been since the summer of 1997 and they are warmer than were they were at this time of the year back in 1982. This Nino is clearly going to be high-end strong, at the very least

[snowman19]

It is not uncommon for the warmth to be greater early on in the eastern region . The models have been impressive in these regions .

But when you look at the modeling from the fall into Jan you see the steep drop in the 3.4 region and if the 1.2 region ends up cooler that is what will matter this winter .

As far as this Nino , I have opined in the past that 1.8 was where I thought the 3.4 region would end up . 2 does not seem impossible . A strong Nino is occurring .

But I will stand on 1.8 until we get closer .

No argument from me, I agree that it will make all the difference come October where the warmest anomalies are located when looking ahead to make a winter forecast

[snowman19]

Pretty big spread between the two versions of the CFS.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/CFSv2SST8210.html

nino34MonadjPDFC.gif

nino34Monadj.gif

I'm thinking +2.0c or +2.1c for region 3.4. I don't think it's going to be as strong or stronger than the '97-'98 Nino like some others are, that said, I definitely can't say there's no chance at all for that to happen, the warming going on and the forecast projections are pretty crazy. As it stands, there's a chance region 3.4 hits +2.0c at the end of July or early August at the current pace....

[donsutherland1]

On the topic of whether this will be a basin-wide El Niño event rather than a central Pacific-oriented one, the following are charts with weighted figures based on 1982-83 and 1997-98 (super El Niño events that were basin wide events) for purposes of illustration. The key point is that unlike the kind of large decline in ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies that took place in recent El Niño events, the basin-wide events saw anomalies generally stabilize into the early fall. During the 1982-83 event, they declined during January and February before temporarily rising again in April through June. During the 1997-98 event, the declined during the January through March period before rising temporarily during April and May.

 

 

If the sharp decline in Region 1+2 anomalies shown on the CFSv2 fails to materialize over the next few months, that would be a strong indication that the ongoing event will likely be basin-wide. For now, it's still too soon to be confident in that outcome.

[SACRUS]

Aussie Bureau update

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

 

El Niño consolidates

Issued on 23 June 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The 2015 El Niño continues to strengthen. Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature indices are more than 1 °C above average for the sixth consecutive week. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate further consolidation is likely. El Niño events typically strengthen during the second half of the year, reaching full strength during late spring or early summer. It is not possible at this stage to determine how strong this El Niño will be.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Of the five international models that provide IOD outlooks, three suggest a positive IOD is likely during the southern spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.

All eight of the surveyed international climate models indicate the central Pacific Ocean will warm further during the coming months. All surveyed models indicate that NINO3.4 will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least late 2015.

 

 

 

 

 

Southern Oscillation Index

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the past two weeks, although this return to neutral values is expected to be temporary and results from local weather factors rather than a change in the broadscale pattern.

The latest 30-day SOI value to 21 June was +0.7. The 90-day SOI remains within El Niño territory, indicating persistent higher atmospheric pressure in the western Pacific at the three-month timescale.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 may indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values below −7 may indicate El Niño. Values of between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

 

 

 

 

he sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 21 June shows temperatures are cooler than average below the surface of the ocean in the western equatorial Pacific and warmer than average in the top 150 m of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. Water in the top 75 m of the far eastern Pacific is more than 5 °C warmer than average. This general pattern is consistent with El Niño.

Compared to two weeks ago, the area of warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific sub-surface has contracted while the area of cool anomalies in the west has increased.

Monthly sub-surface temperatures

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 22 June) shows a generally similar pattern has been maintained in June so far as was present for May and April, although the strength of warm anomalies has increased across the three month period.

For June to date, warm anomalies are evident across the top 100 m to 200 m of the equatorial Pacific sub-surface between about 160°E and the South American coast. Anomalies across large areas of the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific reached more than +4 °C. Cool anomalies persist in the sub-surface of the western equatorial Pacific.

 

 

Weekly sea surface temperatures

Over the past fortnight, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have increased in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Warm anomalies extend along the equator from the South American coastline to just west of the Date Line, with anomalies for the week ending 21 June in excess of +2 °C in much of the eastern equatorial Pacific.

All five NINO indices again exceeded +1 °C this week. It is unusual to have such a broad extent of warmth across the tropical Pacific; the last time this occurred was during the 1997–98 El Niño.

Warm anomalies persist across most of the northeast of the Pacific Basin, extending down the western coastline of North America and into South America. Warm anomalies are also present in areas to Australia's west, and across much of the Indian Ocean.

Baseline period 1961–1990. Index Previous Current Temperature change 
(2 weeks) NINO3 +1.5 +1.7 0.2 °C warmer NINO3.4 +1.3 +1.4 0.1 °C warmer NINO4 +1.2 +1.1 0.1 °C cooler

Monthly sea surface temperatures

The SST anomaly map for May 2015 shows positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific. These positive anomalies extend from the South American coastline, and past the International Date Line to around 160°E. The northeast Pacific Ocean continues to remain above average, while SST anomalies surrounding Australia cooled compared to April, with May anomalies in the Australian region generally close to average. All five NINO indices averaged over the month were greater than +1 °C, which again has not occurred since the 1997–98 El Niño.

 

 

 

Trade winds over the western half of the tropical Pacific were weaker than average for the 5 days ending 21 June. Trade winds have been consistently weaker than average, and on occasion reversed in direction, since the start of 2015.

During La Niña there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.

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Baseline period 1961–1990. Index April May Temperature change NINO3 +0.8 +1.2 0.4 °C warmer NINO3.4 +0.8 +1.1 0.3 °C warmer NINO4 +1.1 +1.1 no change

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[donsutherland1]

Fantastic discussion by the BOM.

[snowman19]

The good thing about the upcoming pattern is we can forget any extended heat wave in the northeast. We are going into a strong coupled El Niño pattern next month, I hate the heat

[UnionWeatherWx]

The good thing about the upcoming pattern is we can forget any extended heat wave in the northeast. We are going into a strong coupled El Niño pattern next month, I hate the heat

Same here. Excellent news.

[uncle W]

soi is at -48 today...lowest so far for this event...

[snowman19]

soi is at -48 today...lowest so far for this event...

There is also a very powerful wwb in progress, strongest since 1997. There is about to be some explosive strengthening in July

[snowman19]

The new runs of the ecmwf and cfsv2 are just crazy with how strong they are getting the Nino this fall. Stronger than '97-'98 and by a wide margin too. My call of a +2.0c-+2.1c fall peak may be in trouble but I'll wait another month to see what happens before I change my thinking. We are past the spring barrier which makes those forecasts more believable

[Isotherm]

The new runs of the ecmwf and cfsv2 are just crazy with how strong they are getting the Nino this fall. Stronger than '97-'98 and by a wide margin too. My call of a +2.0c-+2.1c fall peak may be in trouble but I'll wait another month to see what happens before I change my thinking. We are past the spring barrier which makes those forecasts more believable

 

 

Those runs are essentially outliers among the available model data. Most of the dynamical models have a peak under +2.0c, and the statistical models virtually all under +2.0c. Observationally, June 2015 has lagged 1972/1982/1997 super Nino's in terms of atmospheric pressure over the SW Tropical Pacific. The June SOI is currently about -4.5 month to date, and with several more fairly strong negative days, we may finish June -7 to -10 or so. The June SOI of the three aforementioned super Nino years were all under -12, with -24 in 1997. That strongly negative regime generally persisted in July. While yes, we are past the spring barrier, those forecasts still cannot be bought hook/line/sinker. It's still relatively early in the development of the Nino, and skill scores don't really stabilize until later in the summer. Model runs can be highly reactionary to recent trends with WWBs and SOI plunges. If we are going to see a Nino on par or stronger than 1997, I'd like to see some significant cooling of the waters around Australia, as well as persistent severe negative SOI's averaging on the order of < -25 for a prolonged period (2-4 weeks).

[snowman19]

Those runs are essentially outliers among the available model data. Most of the dynamical models have a peak under +2.0c, and the statistical models virtually all under +2.0c. Observationally, June 2015 has lagged 1972/1982/1997 super Nino's in terms of atmospheric pressure over the SW Tropical Pacific. The June SOI is currently about -4.5 month to date, and with several more fairly strong negative days, we may finish June -7 to -10 or so. The June SOI of the three aforementioned super Nino years were all under -12, with -24 in 1997. That strongly negative regime generally persisted in July. While yes, we are past the spring barrier, those forecasts still cannot be bought hook/line/sinker. It's still relatively early in the development of the Nino, and skill scores don't really stabilize until later in the summer. Model runs can be highly reactionary to recent trends with WWBs and SOI plunges. If we are going to see a Nino on par or stronger than 1997, I'd like to see some significant cooling of the waters around Australia, as well as persistent severe negative SOI's averaging on the order of < -25 for a prolonged period (2-4 weeks).

It appears we are in the early stages of a positive IOD developing, the waters around Austrailia are starting to cool, which is a staple of a +IOD. It would support high pressure over those cooler waters and thus more -SOI, we shall see

[Isotherm]

It appears we are in the early stages of a positive IOD developing, the waters around Austrailia are starting to cool, which is a staple of a +IOD. It would support high pressure over those cooler waters and thus more -SOI, we shall see

 

 

They are beginning to cool, but a comparison at this time of the year reveals that 1997 was quite a bit colder around Australia.

 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

It generally looks like the strongest of the -SOI and WWB pattern continue over the next week before they begin to

step down from the current intensity.

 

 Yeah, the -SOI daily low peak for this drop was almost definitely today as tomorrow's should rise into the lower -40's and possibly up to the high -30's. It will mostly rise between now and 7/6, when it could be a small positive though it should still be negative come 6/30. (maybe near -15?)

 Kudos to the Euro model for doing well in forecasting the SOI all of this month.

 My current projection for June as a whole is for between -9 and -10, which represents quite an abrupt turnaround from the MTD of +5 as of 6/15. Also, compare this -9 to-10 to these strong El Nino June analogs:

 

 

1997: -24.3

1987: -17.9

1982: -17.2

1972: -10.9

1940: -17.2

1905: -27.7

1896: -27.0

1888: -14.4

1877:   -7.0

 

 So, it will end up similar to 1877 and 1972.

[uncle W]

todays soi was up from yesterdays low of -48.90...was that the peak or just the beginning of a long negative soi?...TWT...since 1991 the lowest daily soi was -85.72 on May 31st, 1997...

some daily low soi

-85.72 on 5/31/97

-80.41 on 2/5/10

-77.60 on 2/1/1998

-63.97 on 8/6/2006

-63.91 on 6/23/1992

-63.38 on 4/3/2004

-61.82 on 1/23/1992

-56.59 on 11/5/1997

-53.83 on 4/30/1998

-52.16 on 2/26/2005

-49.56 on 6/11/2009

-49.40 on 7/19/1994

-49.35 on 6/26/2012

-48.90 on 6/26/2015

 

[snowman19]

The wwb is getting stronger and stronger. Some of the latest forecasts are showing this turning into the strongest summer wwb on record....

[snowman19]

I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong so I'll go ahead and do it now, I don't have to wait another month to admit the inevitable. There are now anomalies of +3.0C starting to show up in regions 3 and 1+2. Record wwb in progress, very powerful downwelling kelvin wave in progress, very low SOI, rapidly cooling ssts around austrailia and record warm subsurface anomalies. Given the current Nino region ssts, this event is clearly headed for a peak above the +2.1c I originally had thought, I was wrong.

[snowman19]

It will be interesting to see how the daily WWB values rank after this next week is over. But for the month of June

1997 is well ahead of 2015 since the WWB pattern was sustained over the whole month.

May 2015 came in a respectable 4th strongest monthly WWB pattern. The record holder for June is 1997

and 1982 for July. August is a virtual tie between 1982 and 1997.

15.gif

97.gif

This wwb is turning into a monster. There is going to be very rapid and very dramatic strengthening over the next month. The writing is on the wall with this one, it's going to rank right up there with '82-'83 and '97-'98. Honestly up until this latest wwb and kelvin wave I didn't think that had any chance of happening. This last week was a huge game changer

[dmillz25]

Hey snowman is a strong to super nino what you want? I think this will be a solid strong event. If we get blocking or becomes a modoki that will be perfect.

[snowman19]

Hey snowman is a strong to super nino what you want? I think this will be a solid strong event. If we get blocking or becomes a modoki that will be perfect.

?