BxEngine Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 I wish you luck in your forecast. It would be the first time ever in the entire weather record keeping history that NYC has had a colder and snowier than normal winter with an El Niño this strong if you're correct.... Can you link to his forecast ? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 I wish you luck in your forecast. It would be the first time ever in the entire weather record keeping history that NYC has had a colder and snowier than normal winter with an El Niño this strong if you're correct.... so I assume that you're going the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 I wish you luck in your forecast. It would be the first time ever in the entire weather record keeping history that NYC has had a colder and snowier than normal winter with an El Niño this strong if you're correct.... I like plus 1 with AN snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 All 4 months are AN. D and J the wettest.Thanks. If nothing else, that will increase snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Can you link to his forecast ? Thanks. Thanks . The sample size is so small and there is NO pacific analog to this event. Zero. You have a warm IO may mean the MJO forces in 1 and 2. The IO was cold In 97 . D/L forcing means the greatest upward motion is further west than 97 There was no NEG EPO in 97 so the trough was into the W coast Of Canada. The only thing that is the same is that you had a very warn equatorial basin I can't wrap my head around the east base crowd that saw eastward forcing while losing the winter time -EPO Maybe my luck will run out. But 3 for 3 here , so I think I am following the correct guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 so I assume that you're going the oppositeLet's just say, with region 3.4 nearing +3.0C as we approach December, if I put a forecast out it would not be for a colder than normal and snowier than normal winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 It has a 200 mb anomaly map that looks just like the Euro, UKMET, and SSTCA. Very strong +PNA ridge west of Hudson Bay with a trough over the Southeast. NMME_ensemble_z200_season2.png Thanks Chris. That's a pretty nice look overall with the Low south of the Aleutians leading to the Ridge west of Hudson Bay downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Let's just say, with region 3.4 nearing +3.0C as we approach December, if I put a forecast out it would not be for a colder than normal and snowier than normal winter okay I'll take that as your call for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The only other strong El Nino that matches the Euro small 500 mb section JB posted from Hudson Bay to the D/L is 40-41. 500.png ERSSTv4-1870-Present-ONI-Timeseries-e1432412220233.png Screen shot 2015-11-08 at 4.42.08 PM.png 1940-1941 was also one of Alan Huffman's analogs, if I'm not mistaken. Matches up well with the progression of the Euro Seasonal as well, with December being warm followed by a much more favorable Jan-Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The only other strong El Nino that matches the Euro small 500 mb section JB posted from Hudson Bay to the D/L is 40-41. 500.png ERSSTv4-1870-Present-ONI-Timeseries-e1432412220233.png Screen shot 2015-11-08 at 4.42.08 PM.png Yes. But also a strong Greenland -NAO signal on 1940-41: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Let's just say, with region 3.4 nearing +3.0C as we approach December, if I put a forecast out it would not be for a colder than normal and snowier than normal winter We definitely need blocking like in 09/10 to benefit otherwise the winter will be a lost cause. We absolutely will not get away with a raging +AO/NAO like last year under such a strong ENSO event. Hopefully we see more blocking develop late month into early December to get something going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 We definitely need blocking like in 09/10 to benefit otherwise the winter will be a lost cause. We absolutely will not get away with a raging +AO/NAO like last year under such a strong ENSO event. Hopefully we see more blocking develop late month into early December to get something going. A +AO/NAO "like last year" is generally very unlikely because of its magnitude; it was record breaking, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 We definitely need blocking like in 09/10 to benefit otherwise the winter will be a lost cause. We absolutely will not get away with a raging +AO/NAO like last year under such a strong ENSO event. Hopefully we see more blocking develop late month into early December to get something going. I pretty much agree here. I definitely think 2009 is a strong analog, but that winter would have been a disaster were it not for the Atlantic side blocking, no? That being said, I feel like we say the same thing every year: "It all comes down to blocking (be it Atlantic or Pacific)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 2009 versus 2015. Two different worlds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 2009 versus 2015. Two different worlds. Do you know why guys are mentioning 09 ? 1 hint it has nothing to do with equatorial basin temps . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Do you know why guys are mentioning 09 ? 1 hint it has nothing to do with equatorial basin temps . To be fair, if people want to use 2009 as an analog, they have to take the current state of the ENSO into account. They are nothing alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 To be fair, if people want to use 2009 as an analog, they have to take the current state of the ENSO into account. They are nothing alike. He is comparing the atmospheric evolution to that of November 2009...why is that so difficult to understand? It has nothing to do with ENSO, or even the entirety of the impending season. You can't mention to 2009 was without the ENSO PTSD's being triggered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 It's like saying that this season and 1997 both featured strong ENSOs....they have, but doesn't mean it's a great analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 To be fair, if people want to use 2009 as an analog, they have to take the current state of the ENSO into account. They are nothing alike. Not at all . It is being used because it was POS ENSO year that did this , D/L forcing . The reason is because you are looking at a MODOKI style/basin wide style forcing in the guidance , Raw basin temps , alone don`t determine the atmosphere but having 3.4 and 4 so warm ( warmer than 1.2 ) is allowing the guidance to force west of 97 . Where the greatest upward motion occurs is going to matter . No ONE is comparing the ENSO event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 New GFS continued to shift the most anomalous weakening in the trade winds even further west. So it looks like once again, the best slowing of the trades will be focused West of 120 W. That is a radical forecast change. I agree about things continually trending West. But this was radical. Yesterday's run would imply a major 1-2 warming. This is par for the course. The only other note is enso 4 will cool off with those positive anomalies cutting off the previous Easterlies that accelerated warming. Never the less. This nino in general is pretty fookin epic. 3C anomalies on oisst from 85W to the dateline has never been recorded. 1.5C all the way to 165E. On a side note. The difference between 2010 Nina and this nino in actual ssts is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 He is comparing the atmospheric evolution to that of November 2009...why is that so difficult to understand? It has nothing to do with ENSO, or even the entirety of the impending season. You can't mention to 2009 was without the ENSO PTSD's being triggered. Let me clarify. I understand why people are using 2009 as an analog. But they shouldn't....And this this isn't 1997 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 That is a radical forecast change. I agree about things continually trending West. But this was radical. It's also interesting to note how as we get closer to the date, the significant slowing of the trades keeps getting pushed back with time in the eastern regions and trends weaker as we get closer to the forecasted timeframe. While by the dateline, the forecasted slowing of the trades has actually trended stronger with each successive model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The models like the Euro have been vindicated in their forecast for a big Nino 4 spike. Nino 4 has set a all time record surpassing the 1.4 reading this spring to an historic weekly +1.7. Nino 3.4 has tied the highest weekly record of 2.8 set in 1997 and 1+2 is down a bit. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 28OCT2015 2.3 2.8 2.7 1.404NOV2015 2.1 2.8 2.8 1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The models have been vindicated in their forecast for a big Nino 4 spike. Nino 4 has set a all time record surpassing the 1.4 reading this spring to an historic weekly +1.7. Nino 3.4 has tied the highest weekly record of 2.8 set in 1997. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 28OCT2015 2.3 2.8 2.7 1.4 04NOV2015 2.1 2.8 2.8 1.7 SIGH ........................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 The models like the Euro have been vindicated in their forecast for a big Nino 4 spike. Nino 4 has set a all time record surpassing the 1.4 reading this spring to an historic weekly +1.7. Nino 3.4 has tied the highest weekly record of 2.8 set in 1997 and 1+2 is down a bit. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 28OCT2015 2.3 2.8 2.7 1.4 04NOV2015 2.1 2.8 2.8 1.7 Amazing, we have tied the highest weekly record the 97-98 event set more than 3 weeks before that record was set Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 SIGH ........................... Delayed a bit from earlier calls but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Delayed a bit from earlier calls but not denied. Euro.png I think 3.4 gets to plus 3c before this quits and just wow at seeing plus 1.7c in R4 , that`s epic . No wonder why the forcing is just shunted out that way , the D/L region is on fire . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I think 3.4 gets to plus 3c before this quits and just wow at seeing plus 1.7c in R4 , that`s epic . No wonder why the forcing is just shunted out that way , the D/L region is on fire . This is like a reversed version of 97-98 where Nino 4 and 1+2 switched places and much warmer waters off the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 SIGH ........................... Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The models like the Euro have been vindicated in their forecast for a big Nino 4 spike. Nino 4 has set a all time record surpassing the 1.4 reading this spring to an historic weekly +1.7. Nino 3.4 has tied the highest weekly record of 2.8 set in 1997 and 1+2 is down a bit. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 28OCT2015 2.3 2.8 2.7 1.4 04NOV2015 2.1 2.8 2.8 1.7 The 30.3°C SSTs in Region 4 is also the highest ever on the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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