bluewave Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Great chart by Griteater showing this very impressive basin-wide event compared others since 1950. This is our first strong event to hold so perfectly close to the middle between east and west from May-June into September-October. https://twitter.com/griteater/status/662303702624022528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 It's not sensationalizing. Enso 4 is where the warmest waters are. More convection equals more evaporation. Wild times coming. The change the past week under this wind regime has been incredible. How freaking warm will enso 4 get? The models show the trades pushing heat West through at least mid November. Obviously there is an anomaly limit in comparison with the far East Pacific. The most recent ssta update shows pretty much all of enso 4 is at or above 0.5C on the graphics above which is based on 1971-2010 climo. Even adjusting for that half of enso 4 is now into the main plume of huge ssta. Triton data shows the surface warmth increase. Here is a comparison to 2009 I'm guessing a nino like this would fire off convection over a larger area than normal setting the stage for a loaded STJ. Man....historic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Great chart by Griteater showing this very impressive basin-wide event compared others since 1950. This is our first strong event to hold so perfectly close to the middle between east and west from May-June into September-October. https://twitter.com/griteater/status/662303702624022528 CTD5tM2UwAAGPjS.png-large.png That is the best illustration of how unique this event is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 I believe OISST only goes back to the early 80s....ERSSTv4 goes back to the 1800's...They've also configured it to use running norms to account for the fact that SST's have warmed over the last 100+ years....I am mostly fine with it, though I am not convinced that using climate adjusted norms makes total sense. And the way they configure it seems arbitrary....I understand why they do it. They want to be able to compare the strength of ninos from different eras. But it is still a lot of guesswork....I'm not sure 57 and 65 were as strong as ONI suggests...There is a big difference to me in using 30 year norms for a cycle than for statistical data such a snow and temps....We are trying to gauge the impact of a phenomenon based on a measurement that CPC has artificially constructed... Here is ERSSTv4 with fixed 71-2000 norms...you can see Oct is 2nd warmest of all time in 3.4....I think the columns are 3, 4, 3.4, 1+2 ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v4/index/ersst.v4.el_nino.dat FWIW, filtering could change the ONI as we move forward...the current 1.7 could be revised...I know sept was revised up .07 Interesting. Well, I do think utilizing more recent blocks of time to measure current conditions against makes sense. For example, measuring today's high temperature in NYC against the 1880-2010 normal or the 1960-1990 normal will obviously yield a higher positive departure than a measurement against the 1980-2010 normal. I'm not sure the ENSO normal should be 30 year blocks, though. With respect to 1957 and 1965, SST reanalysis for the peak trimonthly periods, DJF and OND respectively, tend to corroborate those approximate ONI measurements. Both years were very robust Nino's with pockets of > +2.0c anomalies in the tropical Pacific, though this current event should definitely be stronger. SST reanalysis for October, 1997 vs. 2015 [note scales are different, so color scheme is not the same]. The area of > +3c SST's is definitely more expansive / extensive in the 1997. However, as I said this, event is certainly stronger than both 1957 and 1965. We will have to see where we stand in another 1-1.5 months or so, because much depends upon if this Nino can maintain the current highly anomalous SST's. 1997 had four consecutive months of > +2.5c on the OISST dataset from October-January. November will be our first month of > +2.5c on OISST this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 Interesting. Well, I do think utilizing more recent blocks of time to measure current conditions against makes sense. For example, measuring today's high temperature in NYC against the 1880-2010 normal or the 1960-1990 normal will obviously yield a higher positive departure than a measurement against the 1980-2010 normal. I'm not sure the ENSO normal should be 30 year blocks, though. With respect to 1957 and 1965, SST reanalysis for the peak trimonthly periods, DJF and OND respectively, tend to corroborate those approximate ONI measurements. Both years were very robust Nino's with pockets of > +2.0c anomalies in the tropical Pacific, though this current event should definitely be stronger. SST reanalysis for October, 1997 vs. 2015 [note scales are different, so color scheme is not the same]. The area of > +3c SST's is definitely more expansive / extensive in the 1997. However, as I said this, event is certainly stronger than both 1957 and 1965. We will have to see where we stand in another 1-1.5 months or so, because much depends upon if this Nino can maintain the current highly anomalous SST's. 1997 had four consecutive months of > +2.5c on the OISST dataset from October-January. November will be our first month of > +2.5c on OISST this year. Isotherm, I'm starting to think the Euro's +3.0C it has region 3.4 hitting isn't so far fetched anymore. We are almost there right now and the warming continues. It hasn't backed down at all on that prediction for months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Interesting. Well, I do think utilizing more recent blocks of time to measure current conditions against makes sense. For example, measuring today's high temperature in NYC against the 1880-2010 normal or the 1960-1990 normal will obviously yield a higher positive departure than a measurement against the 1980-2010 normal. I'm not sure the ENSO normal should be 30 year blocks, though. With respect to 1957 and 1965, SST reanalysis for the peak trimonthly periods, DJF and OND respectively, tend to corroborate those approximate ONI measurements. Both years were very robust Nino's with pockets of > +2.0c anomalies in the tropical Pacific, though this current event should definitely be stronger. SST reanalysis for October, 1997 vs. 2015 [note scales are different, so color scheme is not the same]. The area of > +3c SST's is definitely more expansive / extensive in the 1997. However, as I said this, event is certainly stronger than both 1957 and 1965. We will have to see where we stand in another 1-1.5 months or so, because much depends upon if this Nino can maintain the current highly anomalous SST's. 1997 had four consecutive months of > +2.5c on the OISST dataset from October-January. November will be our first month of > +2.5c on OISST this year. No way....won't match duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 No way....won't match duration. I would agree. As I've noted before in this thread, the +ENSO initiation occurred at least a couple months later in 1997, and thus the cycle peak for 2015 will likely be 1-2 months earlier. I expect this month (November) will feature the greatest SST anomalies with a gradual decline thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 No way....won't match duration.It may not have to to match or surpass 1997 if it hits +3.0C. A December peak looks like a very good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 It may not have to to match or surpass 1997 if it hits +3.0C. A December peak looks like a very good bet This will go down as the 2nd most intense el nino of all-time. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 This will go down as the 2nd most intense el nino of all-time. Period. Agreed. But hey, I'll gladly take a top 3 spot. Quite the Meteorological event here. Even better because if we get a strong basin-wide Nino, we can look to this one as an analog; something we haven't had the privilege of doing this time 'round. And then I'll be able to say I watched the whole event go down, from start to finish, while I was in school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 This will go down as the 2nd most intense el nino of all-time. Period. I doubt that. Positive anomalies are reaching Indonesia. Wind forecasts show the split to continue. With it becoming more pronounced over the EPAC next week. Warm pool is still expanding East while surface warmth at the dateline is being accelerated West. So now we are entering an epic situation. The amount of heat being dumped into the lower troposphere is enormous. Maybe enso 3 weakens. I don't know. But the trades are set for abrupt and vigorous WPAC warming. With simultaneous EPAC warming. It just so happens there is a deep warm pool in the perfect position to feed both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 97 peaked on Nov 26th in the weeklies. Are we somehow thinking that its not continuing to grow right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 That is the best illustration of how unique this event is. Yeah, this is the first time since 1950 that such a strong event didn't become east-based. The further west zonal wind anomalies coupled with a strong west-based winter into spring start is rare by modern standards. Add one of the strongest +PDO years to the impressive warmth across the whole North and Tropical Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Yeah, this is the first time since 1950 that such a strong event didn't become east-based. The further west zonal wind anomalies coupled with a strong west-based winter into spring start is rare by modern standards. Add one of the strongest +PDO years to the impressive warmth across the whole North and Tropical Pacific. This rare basin wide Nino is becoming more ominous by the day. If we end up with a -EPO and or a -AO this winter coupled with that monster things would get mighty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 This rare basin wide Nino is becoming more ominous by the day. If we end up with a -EPO and or a -AO this winter coupled with that monster things would get mighty interesting. Several of the models actually take this from basin-wide to more west based mid-January through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 i have to give credit to The Global Warmer for sticking to his guns this entire time. While this won't be an east based event, he has been all over this nino.... This has to be uncharted waters for us here on the EC. That said, how does a basin wide event this strong effect our weather? This year more than any other since I started following the weather, high latitude blocking is going to be the wildcard. If we can get even a modest amount of blocking, I feel this can be a historic winter, snowfall wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 The Euro is starting to show a west to east collapse as well ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 This rare basin wide Nino is becoming more ominous by the day. If we end up with a -EPO and or a -AO this winter coupled with that monster things would get mighty interesting. Such an event is not going to pass quietly. Very interesting times ahead for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 i have to give credit to The Global Warmer for sticking to his guns this entire time. While this won't be an east based event, he has been all over this nino.... This has to be uncharted waters for us here on the EC. That said, how does a basin wide event this strong effect our weather? This year more than any other since I started following the weather, high latitude blocking is going to be the wildcard. If we can get even a modest amount of blocking, I feel this can be a historic winter, snowfall wise. I would have helped you here , but after reading your 1st sentence I`ve gone blind . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 I would have helped you here , but after reading your 1st sentence I`ve gone blind . ha... im not saying hes right. I said you have to give it to the guy for sticking to his guns is all. edit: unless i know just part of the story.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 ha... im not saying hes right. I said you have to give it to the guy for sticking to his guns is all. edit: unless i know just part of the story.... Was just kidding ... a bit . As for the rest the rest of your question . Some here believe in the better guidance that wants to force out near the D/L ( and not in the east like 97 ) which has been another reason we drew distinctions between the 2 NINOs . The further west we force the better the chance the NEG in the GOA is displaced W ( like the euro ) and not east ( like the CFS ) . The former " should " help pull the height field west in Canada and focus the BN anomalies into the SE and MA . With a STJ you take your chances . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 The interesting thing is the CFS v2 is playing 'catch up' when it comes to showing the (ENSO) SST anomalies for next month (Dec.) For those of you with WxBell accounts, you can check out the CFS v2 Monthly using the Global domain. Looking at SST's, you can see the progressive movement west of the warm anomalies from the last 30 day average to the most recent. If you check out the precipitation product, you can see the heaviest precip follows along with the warm anomalies moving west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 As of now, the tropical convective forcing position/cell is no longer altered by the MJO, the MJO is dead, there is no MJO anymore. It's all Nino driven at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Interesting. Well, I do think utilizing more recent blocks of time to measure current conditions against makes sense. For example, measuring today's high temperature in NYC against the 1880-2010 normal or the 1960-1990 normal will obviously yield a higher positive departure than a measurement against the 1980-2010 normal. I'm not sure the ENSO normal should be 30 year blocks, though. With respect to 1957 and 1965, SST reanalysis for the peak trimonthly periods, DJF and OND respectively, tend to corroborate those approximate ONI measurements. Both years were very robust Nino's with pockets of > +2.0c anomalies in the tropical Pacific, though this current event should definitely be stronger. SST reanalysis for October, 1997 vs. 2015 [note scales are different, so color scheme is not the same]. The area of > +3c SST's is definitely more expansive / extensive in the 1997. However, as I said this, event is certainly stronger than both 1957 and 1965. We will have to see where we stand in another 1-1.5 months or so, because much depends upon if this Nino can maintain the current highly anomalous SST's. 1997 had four consecutive months of > +2.5c on the OISST dataset from October-January. November will be our first month of > +2.5c on OISST this year. I don't know the best way to construct norms for ENSO because presumably we're trying to normalize the effects of the episode which is different from normalizing a statistic that is measured the same way throughout time. The fundamental question is whether SST anomalies based on running norms is more important than absolute temperatures. I'm not convinced they are. But I wouldn't solely rely on absolute temps either. I think we have to at least be cognizant of the fact that events like 65 and 57 would be moderate events if they occurred today. Having warmer SST's overall as time has passed has to mean something on its own, I would think. I am trying not to get too granular with this event, but at the same time I am taking with a grain of salt any argumens that try to minimize its strength. It's strong as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 As of now, the tropical convective forcing position/cell is no longer altered by the MJO, the MJO is dead, there is no MJO anymore. It's all Nino driven at this point... You mean like this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 You mean like this ? That looks pretty amazing for a really wild winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 97 peaked on Nov 26th in the weeklies. Are we somehow thinking that its not continuing to grow right now? It's definitely growing What's most remarkable is the perfect positioning of the warm pool to warm both sides of the basin to well above normal ssta. The wind profile is set up to lead to a peak over enso 1-2. If that actually happens as shown. We will see by far the largest jump in enso 1-2 so far. While the West PAC keeps warming.. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 97 peaked on Nov 26th in the weeklies. Are we somehow thinking that its not continuing to grow right now? It's definitely growing What's most remarkable is the perfect positioning of the warm pool to warm both sides of the basin to well above normal ssta. The wind profile is set up to lead to a peak over enso 1-2. If that actually happens as shown. We will see by far the largest jump in enso 1-2 so far. While the West PAC keeps warming.. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 I think some will enjoy this piece of humor from JB's page https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/661970645614391296 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I think some will enjoy this piece of humor from JB's page https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/661970645614391296 Well no. Its much much warmer. But seriously. The incredible fear of 1997 is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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