Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[Deck Pic]

I just sent this email to CPC..the stuff I pasted didn't translate, but it still should make sense

 

Good afternoon.  I had a quick question.  Why are the ERSST SST’s for October 1997 running so closely to the OISST weeklies for 1997, yet the discrepancy for October 2015 is much bigger? The climate adjusted norms for Oct 1997 and Oct 2015 are the same, and the OISST norms are static.  Please see below.  I really appreciate your time.  Thanks, Matt.

 

 

Note that 3.4 SST temps and anomalies are running very closely for October 1997 and 2015.  Clearly the norms are the same.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

 

 

Note that 3.4 SST temps are quite different.  1997 absolute temps are much closer to the OISST number above, while OCT 2015’s 28.68 is quite a bit lower than it’s OISST temps above. I understand the anomalies will differ as the base period is not the same, and the dataset is not the same.  But why is the 28.68 so much lower than the weeklies above, when 1997’s are a much closer match?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

[The_Global_Warmer]

by classic, do you mean its like this? c'mon man.....

I said classic warming look. What exactly would you call it? Those anomalies along the SA coast are a classic response to up welling being mitigated.

[ClicheVortex2014]

ASO/ONI

 

No shame in being in 2nd place .

Great basin wide event . 

 

1997   2

 

2015  1.7   My peak back in May was 2 . I still like that call . 

1965  1.6

1987  1.6

1972  1.5

Yeah that sounds reasonable considering the anomalies lately. Even more so if the warming later this month is more robust.

[PB GFI]

Yeah that sounds reasonable considering how the Nino has developed. Even more so if the warming later this month is more robust.

 

I think 3  3.4 and 4 warm into early/mid Dec . 

[ORH_wxman]

Kind of don't understand how OISST for OCT is almost identical to 97 and yet it translates to a much lower ERSST reading for October...the norms are static for the first, and the 2nd is using the same baseline temp for each of those years...latest OISST weekly indicate we're running the same as 97...I wouldn't take ERSST seriously...this Nino is 97 strength..

 

ERSST4 is a new SST dataset that came out this year. It is currently used by NOAA as the primary SST dataset. They adjusted the late 1990s and early 2000s temps downward while adjusting more recent temps upward which is why you see it notably cooler than 1997 whereas the other SST datasets like HadSST and OISST have not done those adjustments and show this El Nino much closer to 1997.

 

It does create confusion.

[Deck Pic]

ERSST4 is a new SST dataset that came out this year. It is currently used by NOAA as the primary SST dataset. They adjusted the late 1990s and early 2000s temps downward while adjusting more recent temps upward which is why you see it notably cooler than 1997 whereas the other SST datasets like HadSST and OISST have not done those adjustments and show this El Nino much closer to 1997.

 

It does create confusion.

 

yes, but see my post below that..clim adjusted norms are currently the same for 97 and 2015...if they are going to make an adjustment they haven't ostensibly done it yet...I don't like ONI much anyway...these norm adjustments are completely arbitrary...not sure there is any scientific basis for the way they are doing it

[ClicheVortex2014]

I think 3  3.4 and 4 warm into early/mid Dec . 

I just hope either, 1) we break Super Nino status (>2.0 ONI)... 2) California sees a wetter than average wet season

 

I know the two are usually associated... but either one will make me happy. Both would be excellent.

[Deck Pic]

I just hope either, 1) we break Super Nino status (>2.0 ONI)... 2) California sees a wetter than average wet season

 

I know the two are usually associated... but either one will make me happy. Both would be excellent.

 

I'm not going to get caught in the ONI weeds...I am far from convinced that a 68 degree day in October is the same as a 65 degree October day in 1997..using the best scientific method we have of measuring SST's, 3.4 is 29.4 degrees Celsius..I won't be tricked by CPC trying to convince me it shouldn't be taken at face value

[The_Global_Warmer]

Given that the sub surface warm pool is still moving East from the most recent WWB. Even these weak positive anomalies should be plenty for continued warming along the SA coast.

In fact the actual wind totals show the trades going near or at calm near the SA coast while picking up West of 100W.

Enso 1-2 is located between 0-10S.

Its likely we see the big warm anomalies spread out and get warmer and the nino start taking on the classic East based look.

It will really come down to how warm the sub surface is around 80-95W. Where we have no obs.

CFS is picking up on another very far East trade weakening/reversal.

Very exciting.

[PB GFI]

You can see why  3 . 3.4 and 4 continue to warm . The greatest subsurface warmth continues to expand west . 

As it  now sits between 100W and 140W  (   R3 and R 3.4 ) .

Compliments of the Australian BOM below  .

I am not sure I have seen a more explosive move west across the entire basin across every time scale , at every depth this has run the entire basin . 

Just a stud basin wide event . 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

97 . 

[The_Global_Warmer]

You can see why 3 . 3.4 and 4 continue to warm . The greatest subsurface warmth continues to expand west .

As it now sits between 100W and 140W ( R3 and R 3.4 ) .

Compliments of the Australian BOM below .

I am not sure I have seen a more explosive move west across the entire basin across every time scale , at every depth this has run the entire basin .

Just a stud basin wide event .

Will you post the link to these graphics.

Thanks.

[PB GFI]

Will you post the link to these graphics.

Thanks.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/?ref=ftr 

[OSUmetstud]

As Don mentioned, new ONI out for ASO is 1.703...Note they adjusted SEP up from 1.68 to 1.75 which makes sense...it was clearly depressed too low...wouldn't be surprised to see another adjustment...2nd strongest of modern record behind 1997's 2.0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

October still ran 0.65c less than the newer data set. (The weekly averaged data was 2.5c).

[OSUmetstud]

So basically were going to miss the record because of some data set nonsense? That's nice.

[alwaysready126]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/?ref=ftr 

 wow the charts here tell the story for expansion of warm sst's due west....

[snowman19]

Given that the sub surface warm pool is still moving East from the most recent WWB. Even these weak positive anomalies should be plenty for continued warming along the SA coast.

In fact the actual wind totals show the trades going near or at calm near the SA coast while picking up West of 100W.

Enso 1-2 is located between 0-10S.

Its likely we see the big warm anomalies spread out and get warmer and the nino start taking on the classic East based look.

It will really come down to how warm the sub surface is around 80-95W. Where we have no obs.

CFS is picking up on another very far East trade weakening/reversal.

Very exciting.

It's a beautiful thing

[bluewave]

The zonal wind anomalies were just too weak compared to 1997 east of 120W for a big east-based 

event this year. The different wind pattern this year resulted in a basin-wide event instead.

 

[Utrex]

97 . 

This is a very interesting image. It shows what looks like the cold pool that started the La Niña pushing the warm pool eastward... The cold pool today is nowhere near the strength as it was in 1997, leading me to believe that either the El Niño we have today is going to peak in 2016 or the cold pool is responsible for driving the warm pool eastward... Makes me wonder what will happen with this El Niño as time goes on. The 1997 El Niño also had a much smoother and defined shape than our current El Niño. Also, the upwelling of the Niño 1+2 regions usually evolves to downwelling as we hea into Winter and Spring, as observed by annual SST observations during every year.

[The_Global_Warmer]

You can see why 3 . 3.4 and 4 continue to warm . The greatest subsurface warmth continues to expand west .

As it now sits between 100W and 140W ( R3 and R 3.4 ) .

Compliments of the Australian BOM below .

I am not sure I have seen a more explosive move west across the entire basin across every time scale , at every depth this has run the entire basin .

Just a stud basin wide event .

The sub surface warm pool is not moving West.

[PB GFI]

The sub surface warm pool is not moving West.

It's done nothing but head west ever since you began posting 5 weeks ago .

To be fair since July , but you have been the kiss of death. Jk of course.

Pull up the last 4 month off the Australian site , pick any depth

And post them.

Now look at 97 , the warmest sub surface waters were much warmer , further east and straddling the surface , here you see the warmer waters heads deeper , they are not surfacing.

Now go back to 97, even with all that warm water east of 120 we only managed a .6c increase from here on in , this water is not nearly as warm so don't expect an explosion . A pop maybe , then a decline.

Now 3 and 3.4 that could run through Dec 15.

[PB GFI]

The Euro weeklies more bullish on D/L forcing returning week 3 as per this Mike Ventrice WSI freebie.

A bit after this they slowly begin to raise the heights around Alaska again following the deep trough.

But this week three forecast stuff especially when the MJO is involved can be tricky.

There is some spread around mid month between the newer Euro runs and the earlier

weekly.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml#for

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/661940151220858880?lang=en

 

CS-vDzLXIAAwmFT.png-large.png

It's been pulled back there all year. It's good see the guidance take it back to the D/L

[ORH_wxman]

It's done nothing but head west ever since you began posting 5 weeks ago .

To be fair since July , but you have been the kiss of death. Jk of course.

Pull up the last 4 month off the Australian site , pick any depth

And post them.

Now look at 97 , the warmest sub surface waters were much warmer , further east and straddling the surface , here you see the warmer waters heads deeper , they are not surfacing.

Now go back to 97, even with all that warm water east of 120 we only managed a .6c increase from here on in , this water is not nearly as warm so don't expect an explosion . A pop maybe , then a decline.

Now 3 and 3.4 that could run through Dec 15.

 

 

Yeah aside from short term wobbles, the sub-surface anomalies have gone west with time...also the best surfacing of those anomalies has been west of the eastern regions. This is why they are warming faster.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yeah aside from short term wobbles, the sub-surface anomalies have gone west with time...also the best surfacing of those anomalies has been west of the eastern regions. This is why they are warming faster.

You told me that the cpc subsurface temps are not reliable like tao/triton because they are modeled.

Things have oscillated. But once you reach 120W or so. Very small changes in the depth of the thermocline causes very large changes in the anomalies because of the very tight gradient between the Humboldt current and equatorial heat.

In the end this matters in the sense that it would take longer to errode the warm pool the deeper it is.

However absolute values are pretty much even as you get closer to the surface at least to 100W.

The warm pool it self has convinced l continued to move Eastward.

While at depth the thermocline between 105W and SA has risen a bit because of up welling.

However in the last 10 days the thermocline has started to flatten.

I expect a bit of a lull thanks to the few days of stronger trades.

But then warming to resume and easily top early October

[ORH_wxman]

You told me that the cpc subsurface temps are not reliable like tao/triton because they are modeled.

Things have oscillated. But once you reach 120W or so. Very small changes in the depth of the thermocline causes very large changes in the anomalies because of the very tight gradient between the Humboldt current and equatorial heat.

In the end this matters in the sense that it would take longer to errode the warm pool the deeper it is.

However absolute values are pretty much even as you get closer to the surface at least to 100W.

The warm pool it self has convinced l continued to move Eastward.

While at depth the thermocline between 105W and SA has risen a bit because of up welling.

However in the last 10 days the thermocline has started to flatten.

I expect a bit of a lull thanks to the few days of stronger trades.

But then warming to resume and easily top early October

 

 

 

There was a time when Triton was the gold standard, but they have had a lot of problems since 2013.

 

Here's just one story on it:

 

 

http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-monitoring-system-in-failure-mode-1.14582

 

 

So unfortunately, we have to be cautious with the data.

 

 

 

Either way, I think we've seen the peak in eastern regions and we haven't yet in Nino 3/3.4/4....even though I don't disagree that there could be some periods of warming in eastern regions. I just don't think they will be enough to reach a new peak.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Well see how far it goes

[dmillz25]

DT posted this in the main ENSO thread

http://blog.wdtinc.com/blog/a-tale-of-two-el-niños-1997-98-and-2015-16?utm_campaign=El%20Nino%20Comparison%20-%20EB%2FDG&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

[PB GFI]

DT posted this in the main ENSO thread

http://blog.wdtinc.com/blog/a-tale-of-two-el-niños-1997-98-and-2015-16?utm_campaign=El%20Nino%20Comparison%20-%20EB%2FDG&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

 

Considerable media attention has focused on what has been described as a potentially historic equatorial Pacific Ocean basin-wide El Niño currently in progress. Astute readers also already know that no two El Niños are alike in terms of their evolutions and global weather impacts, and that there is a limited historical record for strong events (e.g., 1982-82 and 1997-98). In reality, there is a whole spectrum to ENSO, not just a “few categories” (e.g., super, strong, moderate, warm, cold, etc.).

 

 

 

 

 

Just a great piece by DT. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Impressive.

[packbacker]

Impressive.

Agreed....so much less than 97 at this time, 1/2 less. And with anomolies higher in 3.4 and with the spike in region 4 shows what a bw event this is and so not like 98. Thanks for pointing that out, again and again and again.