The_Global_Warmer Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Just keep it mind, CFS also shows that Nino region 4 has already peaked as well and it has a rapid drop off, by February it is showing it no longer in Nino status basically at 0C (neutral/la nada) and by March, it's on it's way to becoming a La Niña alreadyWe also have huge anomalies all the way to 85W.The peripheral eating warming like 1997 isn't there along he SA coast But there is still time for it to pick up. But it's undeniable the core of this nino is from 150W to 90W. Looking at the trades nino 4 will see a big cool down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Yea. save for 1.2, the CFS has this event collapsing from west to east. Don't like that. The Euro is starting to show a west to east collapse as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Euro looks fine to me. R4 doesn't cool in earnest until January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 The Euro is starting to show a west to east collapse as well If the trades strengthen from west to east that will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Euro looks fine to me. R4 doesn't cool in earnest until January.Some of the new forecasts are showing the trade winds picking up in earnest over Nino region 4, IF that actually happens over the next few weeks, IF, that will lend support to the CFS idea of a west to east collapse. It needs to be watched closely to see if that scenario actually happens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Nino 4 ties the all time weekly record of +1.4 set on 4/29/15. The 3.4 region weekly reading of +2.7 is just behind the +2.8 record set on 11/26/97. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 21OCT2015 2.2 2.6 2.5 1.328OCT2015 2.3 2.8 2.7 1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 things are exploding now over enso 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 A much clearer picture as Ryan`s map are much more detailed . This continues to show you the bigger increases continue in 3 and 3.4. The focus in 100 on W and that will not change . 21OCT2015 2.2 2.6 2.5 1.3 28OCT2015 2.3 2.8 2.7 1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 East based vs Basin Wide , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 East based vs Basin Wide , Great comparison. The current ENSO event is basin-wide. There really should be no debate about that at this point in time, especially as its basin-wide character has persisted well into the fall now with the peak perhaps not that far into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 I def. wish it were a little more west based. The heavy focus on R3 isn't optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 I def. wish it were a little more west based. The heavy focus on R3 isn't optimal. It's never going to be perfect. Considering what a strong event could yield , there may be just enough here to save the second half.R 3 and 3.4 are warner than 1.2 and that is not in any way a winter killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Nino 4 ties the all time weekly record of +1.4 set on 4/29/15. The 3.4 region weekly reading of +2.7 is just behind the +2.8 record set on 11/26/97. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 21OCT2015 2.2 2.6 2.5 1.3 28OCT2015 2.3 2.8 2.7 1.4 Region 3.4 is actually ahead of 1997 now. The highest weekly reading of +2.8C was hit the last week of November 97, we are now less than 0.1 away from that reading in the first days of November with warming still ongoing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 It's never going to be perfect. Considering what a strong event could yield , there may be just enough here to save the second half. R 3 and 3.4 are warner than 1.2 and that is not in any way a winter killer. Except enso 1-2 warming is still way colder in practical application then enso 3.Also thereason is this. One is not like the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Except enso 1-2 warming is still way colder in practical application then enso 3. Also thereason is this. One is not like the other. Yes and the core of the warmth is now and has been since July west of 100 . And there are reasons for that too. This NINO " exploded " west in early July as the warmest water at almost every level was west of 100 . 3 and 3.4 are central basin regions 4( Record levels ) is west and 1.2 is east . We have always defined this ( you can find my orig post on page 3) here that this was going to spread west . You are now trying to include 3 to make your argument . We have been all over 3 and 3.4 for months and there is still upside to these regions , what we have said was this was NEVER going to be an east based event . You agree right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The core of warmth in any Nino is always West of 100W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The core of warmth in any Nino is always West of 100W. ? Most of the warmth below is between 110 and 80 A TRUE EAST BASED NINO The core of the warmth this year is between 100 and 140 A TRUE BASIN WIDE NINO . These are not the same . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Can I just say this....? It seems some on this board are not able to own incorrect forecasts/ outlooks. For whatever reason, it seems their is more agenda pushing than anything else with some posters and it really distracts the forum from solid discussions going forward. Am I off base with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 ? Most of the warmth below is between 110 and 80 A TRUE EAST BASED NINO The core of the warmth this year is between 100 and 140 A TRUE BASIN WIDE NINO . These are not the same . Bro those are anomalies.Convection is driven by absolute warmth. I'm sure haVing enhanced warmth where 16-20C ssts become 20-24C means something. But the core warmth. The difference making heat. is along enso 3 to enso 4. What is enso 3 right now versus 1997 on the weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Bro those are anomalies. Convection is driven by absolute warmth. I'm sure haVing enhanced warmth where 16-20C ssts become 20-24C means something. But the core warmth. The difference making heat. is along enso 3 to enso 4. What is enso 3 right now versus 1997 on the weeklies What is enso 3 right now versus 1997 And the rest of the basin . Oct 28 1997 1.2 3.6 3 3.4 3.4 2.6 4 . .06 Oct 28 2015 1.2 2.3 3 2.8 3.4 2.7 4 1.4 And the heat has been driven WEST since July . Lets simplify this for everyone , because I want to make sure of your position . Do you think 2015 is an east based event ? or is evolving into an east based event ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Core of the warmth is between 110 and 140...that's not center based...It is an east based event...doesn't mean it isn't basin wide as we do have nino conditions in region 4 (even if mostly in the eastern half), ...classic center based events actually have the core anomalies near 160W (not 140W) as anomalies usually tail off rapidly west of the dateline..It is mostly semantics, as we know what is going on with this Nino, but to me it is East based... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 What is enso 3 right now versus 1997 And the rest of the basin . Oct 28 1997 1.2 3.6 3 3.4 3.4 2.6 4 . .06 Oct 28 2015 1.2 2.3 3 2.8 3.4 2.7 4 1.4 And the heat has been driven WEST since July . Lets simplify this for everyone , because I want to make sure of your position . Do you think 2015 is an east based event ? or is evolving into an east based event ? Its a hybrid between the two. But right now the warmest anomalies are between 140W and 90W which is East based. With big warmth surfacing close to SA. All indicators point towards this to continue With 130W-80W warming more. I'd wager next week enso 3 breaks 3.0C. enso 4 cools. enso 1-2 warms. It's hard to ignore enso 3 being so warm. Bringing that precious 28-29C line so far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Core of the warmth is between 110 and 140...that's not center based...It is an east based event...doesn't mean it isn't basin wide as we do have nino conditions in region 4 (even if mostly in the eastern half), ...classic center based events actually have the core anomalies near 160W (not 140W) as anomalies usually tail off rapidly west of the dateline..It is mostly semantics, as we know what is going on with this Nino, but to me it is East based...they think classifying this as central based will magically make this winter awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Does cfs and other models account for sub surface ohc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 they think classifying this as central based will magically make this winter awesome how many strong ninos have been center/west based? 0? not sure why anyone would expect core warmth to be between 140-180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 they think classifying this as central based will magically make this winter awesomeWe are clearly on our way to beating the 97-98 peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 This is the 1st basin wide strong NINO The core of the warmth extends well out into the R4 . Focused between 110- and 145 . Most of that is in the central basin R 3.4 and 4 are at record levels . R 1.2 continues to cool as the rest of the basin increases . enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 1.2 last 30 days.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 We are clearly on our way to beating the 97-98 peak Currently running in 3rd place . JAS ONI 1997 1.7 1987 1.6 2015 1.5 1972 1.3 1957 1.2 1997 NDJ got to 2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 they think classifying this as central based will magically make this winter awesome as JB is saying alot right now though, you really have to like the mild October and now likely mild November for the foreseeable future. Most of the bigger Ninos that were mild in November and late October tended to be cold in December-February. Cold now is usually not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 how many strong ninos have been center/west based? 0? not sure why anyone would expect core warmth to be between 140-180 Let's cut a few words out of that question; how many strong Ninos have there been? There've been 5 strong Ninos. 57-58, 65-66, 72-73, 82-83, 97-98. Even if they were all east-based (which they weren't), the sample size is too small to suggest "it's not happened before, so why would it happen now?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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