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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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Just keep it mind, CFS also shows that Nino region 4 has already peaked as well and it has a rapid drop off, by February it is showing it no longer in Nino status basically at 0C (neutral/la nada) and by March, it's on it's way to becoming a La Niña already

We also have huge anomalies all the way to 85W.

The peripheral eating warming like 1997 isn't there along he SA coast

But there is still time for it to pick up.

zkNLRGD.jpg

But it's undeniable the core of this nino is from 150W to 90W.

Looking at the trades nino 4 will see a big cool down

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Euro looks fine to me. R4 doesn't cool in earnest until January.

Some of the new forecasts are showing the trade winds picking up in earnest over Nino region 4, IF that actually happens over the next few weeks, IF, that will lend support to the CFS idea of a west to east collapse. It needs to be watched closely to see if that scenario actually happens....
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A much clearer picture as Ryan`s map are much more detailed . This continues to show you the bigger increases continue in 3 and 3.4.

The focus in 100 on W and that will not change . 

 

21OCT2015 2.2  2.6  2.5  1.3

28OCT2015 2.3  2.8  2.7  1.4   

 

 

 

post-7472-0-55239700-1446467828_thumb.pn

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I def. wish it were a little more west based.

The heavy focus on R3 isn't optimal.

It's never going to be perfect. Considering what a strong event could yield , there may be just enough here to save the second half.

R 3 and 3.4 are warner than 1.2 and that is not in any way a winter killer.

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Nino 4 ties the all time weekly record of +1.4 set on 4/29/15.

The 3.4 region weekly reading of +2.7 is just behind the +2.8

record set on 11/26/97.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

21OCT2015 2.2 2.6 2.5 1.3

28OCT2015 2.3 2.8 2.7 1.4

Region 3.4 is actually ahead of 1997 now. The highest weekly reading of +2.8C was hit the last week of November 97, we are now less than 0.1 away from that reading in the first days of November with warming still ongoing....
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It's never going to be perfect. Considering what a strong event could yield , there may be just enough here to save the second half.

R 3 and 3.4 are warner than 1.2 and that is not in any way a winter killer.

Except enso 1-2 warming is still way colder in practical application then enso 3.

Also thereason is this.

One is not like the other.

znMGVRV.jpg

XyGil0C.jpg

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Except enso 1-2 warming is still way colder in practical application then enso 3.

Also thereason is this.

One is not like the other.

znMGVRV.jpg

 

Yes and the core of the warmth is now and has been since July west of 100 . And there are reasons for that too. 

This NINO " exploded " west in early July as the warmest water at almost every level was west of 100 . 

3 and 3.4 are central basin regions 4( Record levels )  is west  and 1.2 is east .

We have always defined this ( you can find my orig post on page 3) here that this was going to spread west .

You are now trying to include 3 to make your argument . We have been all over 3 and 3.4 for months and there is still upside to these regions , what we have said was this was NEVER  going to be an east based event . 

You agree right ? 

 

ssttlon5_c.gif

wkteq2_anm_105m.gif

 

wkteq2_anm_55m.gif

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The core of warmth in any Nino is always West of 100W.

 

?  Most of the warmth below is between 110 and 80 A TRUE EAST BASED NINO 

 

The core of the warmth this year is between 100 and 140 A TRUE  BASIN WIDE NINO .

 

These are not the same . 

post-7472-0-33017000-1446487711_thumb.pn

post-7472-0-33818600-1446488077_thumb.pn

post-7472-0-79798800-1446488316_thumb.pn

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Can I just say this....?

 

It seems some on this board are not able to own incorrect forecasts/ outlooks.  For whatever reason, it seems their is more agenda pushing than anything else with some posters and it really distracts the forum from solid discussions going forward.  Am I off base with this?

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? Most of the warmth below is between 110 and 80 A TRUE EAST BASED NINO

The core of the warmth this year is between 100 and 140 A TRUE BASIN WIDE NINO .

These are not the same .

Bro those are anomalies.

Convection is driven by absolute warmth.

I'm sure haVing enhanced warmth where 16-20C ssts become 20-24C means something.

But the core warmth. The difference making heat.

is along enso 3 to enso 4.

Ny02Mwe.jpg

vx5y7gg.jpg

What is enso 3 right now versus 1997 on the weeklies

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Bro those are anomalies.

Convection is driven by absolute warmth.

I'm sure haVing enhanced warmth where 16-20C ssts become 20-24C means something.

But the core warmth. The difference making heat.

is along enso 3 to enso 4.

Ny02Mwe.jpg

vx5y7gg.jpg

What is enso 3 right now versus 1997 on the weeklies

 

 

 

 

What is enso 3 right now versus 1997 

And the rest of the basin . 

 

Oct 28 1997  

1.2    3.6

3       3.4 

3.4    2.6

4 .     .06 

 

Oct 28 2015 

1.2  2.3 

3     2.8 

3.4  2.7 

4     1.4 

 

 

And the heat has been driven WEST since July  . Lets simplify this for everyone , because I want to make sure of your position .

Do you think 2015 is an east based event ?  or is evolving into an east based event ? 

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Core of the warmth is between 110 and 140...that's not center based...It is an east based event...doesn't mean it isn't basin wide as we do have nino conditions in region 4 (even if mostly in the eastern half), ...classic center based events actually have the core anomalies near 160W (not 140W) as anomalies usually tail off rapidly west of the dateline..It is mostly semantics, as we know what is going on with this Nino, but to me it is East based...

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What is enso 3 right now versus 1997

And the rest of the basin .

Oct 28 1997

1.2 3.6

3 3.4

3.4 2.6

4 . .06

Oct 28 2015

1.2 2.3

3 2.8

3.4 2.7

4 1.4

And the heat has been driven WEST since July . Lets simplify this for everyone , because I want to make sure of your position .

Do you think 2015 is an east based event ? or is evolving into an east based event ?

Its a hybrid between the two.

But right now the warmest anomalies are between 140W and 90W which is East based.

With big warmth surfacing close to SA.

All indicators point towards this to continue With 130W-80W warming more.

p4PnQkn.jpg

I'd wager next week enso 3 breaks 3.0C.

enso 4 cools.

enso 1-2 warms.

It's hard to ignore enso 3 being so warm.

Bringing that precious 28-29C line so far East.

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Core of the warmth is between 110 and 140...that's not center based...It is an east based event...doesn't mean it isn't basin wide as we do have nino conditions in region 4 (even if mostly in the eastern half), ...classic center based events actually have the core anomalies near 160W (not 140W) as anomalies usually tail off rapidly west of the dateline..It is mostly semantics, as we know what is going on with this Nino, but to me it is East based...

they think classifying this as central based will magically make this winter awesome
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they think classifying this as central based will magically make this winter awesome

 

as JB is saying alot right now though, you really have to like the mild October and now likely mild November for the foreseeable future.  Most of the bigger Ninos that were mild in November and late October tended to be cold in December-February.  Cold now is usually not good. 

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how many strong ninos have been center/west based?  0?  not sure why anyone would expect core warmth to be between 140-180

Let's cut a few words out of that question; how many strong Ninos have there been? 

 

There've been 5 strong Ninos. 57-58, 65-66, 72-73, 82-83, 97-98. Even if they were all east-based (which they weren't), the sample size is too small to suggest "it's not happened before, so why would it happen now?"

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