thunderbolt Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Maybe 2.3 or 2.4 Peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 Maybe 2.3 or 2.4 PeakAgreed, either we tie or beat the 1997 peak, this El Niño earned its place in the record books Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Agreed, either we tie or beat the 1997 peak, this El Niño earned its place in the record books It is exploding now over the EPAC. Enso 3 is starting to go nuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Agreed, either we tie or beat the 1997 peak, this El Niño earned its place in the record books It is exploding now over the EPAC. Enso 3 is starting to go nuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Cioffi thinks only region 1+2 peaked. Region 3.4 continues to warm, 3.4 is what counts when measuring Nino strength, always has. It is now at +2.6C and climbing: https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/660170636518526976 we have a new downwelling kelvin wave pushing across the Nino regions as we speak, in addition, the trade winds have completely collapsed: https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/660171702496722944 and we just had a very massive, prolonged WWB, which started the new kelvin wave. All this means more warming of ENSO region 3.4 over the next month. This is not my prediction, it's what is actually happening, the laws of physics and nature say more warming to come completely agree the trades have the classics East based look how much heat house up on the east side still remains to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Cioffi thinks only region 1+2 peaked. Region 3.4 continues to warm, 3.4 is what counts when measuring Nino strength, always has. It is now at +2.6C and climbing: https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/660170636518526976 we have a new downwelling kelvin wave pushing across the Nino regions as we speak, in addition, the trade winds have completely collapsed: https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/660171702496722944 and we just had a very massive, prolonged WWB, which started the new kelvin wave. All this means more warming of ENSO region 3.4 over the next month. This is not my prediction, it's what is actually happening, the laws of physics and nature say more warming to come This is still a big deal for winter...it clearly means this is a basin wide event...not a mega Super East Based Nino like som eof the past ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 This year is more impressive west of 150W and the entire NP than 1997. But you can see how much warmer 1997 was east of 150W. Also much warmer this year around Australia and the IO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 This year is more impressive west of 150W and the entire NP than 1997. But you can see how much warmer 1997 was east of 150W. Also much warmer this year around Australia and the IO. A.gif B.gif I know I'm beating a dead horse but I honestly can't fathom how some are still going for a 97-98 repeat. Everything about the Pacific setup is so much less favorable for a torch like 97-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 This year is more impressive west of 150W and the entire NP than 1997. But you can see how much warmer 1997 was east of 150W. Also much warmer this year around Australia and the IO. A.gif B.gif I think the warmer water in the IO and near Australia could promote more MJO activity than what we would usually expect in a strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I know I'm beating a dead horse but I honestly can't fathom how some are still going for a 97-98 repeat. Everything about the Pacific setup is so much less favorable for a torch like 97-98. Yeah, I would say that each year is impressive in its own unique way. I think the warmer water in the IO and near Australia could promote more MJO activity than what we would usually expect in a strong El Nino. I was also reading that the warmer waters in Nino 4 can promote more MJO activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Things are in motion now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 I know I'm beating a dead horse but I honestly can't fathom how some are still going for a 97-98 repeat. Everything about the Pacific setup is so much less favorable for a torch like 97-98.I guess for the same reason some have been riding 09-10 like Seattle Slew since the spring and still are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I guess for the same reason some have been riding 09-10 like Seattle Slew since the spring and still are... who's riding 09 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 1.2 has seen it`s day in the sun and any warming will not be insignificant , bye bye . The rest look good . I think 3 - 3.4 - 4 all warm throughout November . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Yeah, the one place that the CFS is on its own is in Nino 4. Most other models don't have that sharp fall off in the winter so their forcing is further west. Chris I hit JB up and what you and Doug were talking about , he posted on it last night . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I was just browsing all the 0z Euro guidance and read that post. That's one of the biggest compliments of our forum that I have read so far. Yeh , he views AMEX through his sons account in PA , reads the NYC and N/E threads here and there and says man ,some of those guys are too good . Agreed, it was a really nice compliment . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Can you guys link to that post from JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Yeh , he views AMEX through his sons account in PA , reads the NYC and N/E threads here and there and says man ,some of those guys are too good . Agreed, it was a really nice compliment . It was very kind of him to say that. All his early internet weather commentary on accuwx in the late 90's into the 2000's was where many of us got our interest in the long range. I didn't even know what analog forecasting was before I started reading those posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 It was very kind of him to say that. All his early internet weather commentary on accuwx in the late 90's into the 2000's was where many of us got our interest in the long range. I didn't even know what analog forecasting was before I started reading those posts. I was using analogs before they were called analogs...I really had no clue until I joined the weather boards back in 1999 on the TWCBB...Wright Weather was a great sight back in the early 2000's too...I didn't know JB except for his forecasts on 1010 wins for ACCUWX until I came to the boards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 1.2 has seen it`s day in the sun and any warming will be insignificant , bye bye . The rest look good . I think 3 - 3.4 - 4 all warm throughout November . Just keep it mind, CFS also shows that Nino region 4 has already peaked as well and it has a rapid drop off, by February it is showing it no longer in Nino status basically at 0C (neutral/la nada) and by March, it's on it's way to becoming a La Niña already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Chris I hit JB up and what you and Doug were talking about , he posted on it last night .Awesome! My respect for him (climate change not withstanding) has actually grown over the past few years.Edit: where is his post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Awesome! My respect for him (climate change not withstanding) has actually grown over the past few years.Personal friendship aside , I wish he never went there. (CC debate ) . It hurt the credibility/brand and it was an unforced error/fight that he didn't need. He's a VG LR forecaster . Being right consumes him and the guy is relentless . But he liked what you saw and posted on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015110100/cansips_z500a_us_1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015110100/cansips_z500a_us_1.pngNew Canadian long range is all fooked up. Comparing 500mb maps to surface temps are wacked outside of maybe January. February's 500mb looks like surface temps would be colder than January's forcast that's well below normal, instead February shows above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 New Canadian long range is all fooked up. Comparing 500mb maps to surface temps are wacked outside of maybe January. February's 500mb looks like surface temps would be colder than January's forcast that's well below normal, instead February shows above normal. The 500 Feb maps match the Jan 2m Temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Yeah, the one place that the CFS is on its own is in Nino 4. Most other models don't have that sharp fall off in the winter so their forcing is further west. Yea. save for 1.2, the CFS has this event collapsing from west to east. Don't like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 What did JB say, and what was he commenting on? I have never seen a more cryptic discourse.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 What did JB say, and what was he commenting on? I have never seen a more cryptic discourse.... Doug and Chris were discussing the warm IO and it's influence on the MJO.I hit up JB and he took a peak at the disco . He then wrote a piece on the idea then complimented the threads after looking in on NYC and NE threads That there are some really good posters/ideas in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 What did JB say, and what was he commenting on? I have never seen a more cryptic discourse.... I'm assuming they are talking about the MJO post he made yesterday where he was talking about the Indian Ocean and how he sometimes reads forums and blogs and is amazed at how people that just love the weather have just as much talent and drive as people that work in the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Warm subsurface still building East as enso 1-3 warm. CFS and the gfs have another strong trade reversal and weakening event. http://i.imgur.com/Ov6pXTD.jpg[/imq] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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