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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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Such a different type of strong . Do these pieces mitigate kicking the ridge far enough east in Canada pinching off most of the cold air  . 

It`s a different set up IMO . 

 

 

post-7472-0-70534500-1446055083.gif

 

post-564-0-70615100-1446052254.png

Lots of peeps drinking the fall forcing kool aide, too.

How often does the mean autumnal forcing lock in for several months on end?

 

I'm glad the forcing blows now....call me nuts, other classic nino years sucked around now.

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The EPS forecast for the first week of November looks similar to the November Euro seasonal in your presentation.

That trough position over the SW US is right in line with the Euro seasonal for November. 

 

attachicon.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.png

I don't foresee many changes to my outlook maps posted back in early August.

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Man, that is a terrible chart lol

Very mild, and hostile to major cyclogenesis given the compressed geopotential medium across the east.

Shred city.

SW's would stream out of the sw and just get eviscerated upon reaching the longitude of about Chicago.

Glad it's Novie.

Ray that looks like Nov 09. Check out the CFS Dec at 500 ☺

If it's right , I will be wrong.

I just think it could be pulling the trigger a bit too fast. The Euro seasonal doesn't evolve into that until Jan

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Man, that is a terrible chart lol

Very mild, and hostile to major cyclogenesis given the compressed geopotential medium across the east.

Shred city.

SW's would stream out of the sw and just get eviscerated upon reaching the longitude of about Chicago.

 

Glad it's Novie.

 

It's all good since its the opposite of November 1997 and closer to 2009 in the East.  :D

 

 

 

 

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Ray that looks like Nov 09. Check out the CFS Dec at 500 ☺

If it's right , I will be wrong.

I just think it could be pulling the trigger a bit too fast. The Euro seasonal doesn't evolve into that until Jan

 

 

It's all good since its the opposite of November 1997 and closer to 2009 in the East:D

 

attachicon.gif97.png

 

attachicon.gif09.png

I know....believe me, I know....lol

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Ray that looks like Nov 09. Check out the CFS Dec at 500 ☺

If it's right , I will be wrong.

I just think it could be pulling the trigger a bit too fast. The Euro seasonal doesn't evolve into that until Jan

Be careful about rushing pattern changes.

I'd always add a good 10-14 days onto consensus.

Err on the side of caution in this regard.

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Some folks just don't get it.

Too busy humping convective clusters in the tropical Pacific, and having erotic dreams about forcing.

Some very talented posters are having their view of the seasonal forest obscured by some convective trees imho.

Maybe I'll be wrong, and will gladly acquiesce should that become apparent.

 

Take a look at the damn pattern evolution.....is it a death knell to have what would be a terrible pattern, unfavorable forcing, during the fall, or do you draw parallels to the evolution of seasons gone by.

 

I know my stance.

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Be careful about rushing pattern changes.

I'd always add a good 10-14 days onto consensus.

Err on the side of caution in this regard.

 

I agree , that`s why I like J more than D .  The ridge looks to take hold in Nov E of the MISS they don`t like to reverse out quickly .

I will stick with what I have this far out . 

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The coast will have a very difficult time throughout the first half, I think....gonna really need things to break right.

 

Agree with Chris 

With all that warm water off the E/C , without blocking the coastal plain at 40N is not where one wants to be early on . 

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I could see I 95 not getting much at all until Late Jan, or even Feb.

 

I actually think I 95 in sne may even start more slowly than the mid atl.

that's the way it looks now and a mild start could happen...A mild ending too if every thing goes wrong...I was looking at the fall of 1979 and the ao went way positive in December...But there was one week when it was negative and NYC got 3" of snow with its help...It actually help kept the storm from coming up the coast...1982 had a positive ao but it was negative for a few days around the 12th and NYC picked up 3" of snow and again the storm stayed to far south for a big e...So if the AO is positive on average for December it will be mild...But if there is a window when the ao is negative there could be some snow between mildness...

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Man, that is a terrible chart lol

Very mild, and hostile to major cyclogenesis given the compressed geopotential medium across the east.

Shred city.

SW's would stream out of the sw and just get eviscerated upon reaching the longitude of about Chicago.

Glad it's Novie.

That super fast zonal PAC all with positive height anomalies makes me want to puke.

Or perhaps it's the bacon and macaroni cheese pizza I ate after getting drinks for my friend's birthday last night.

Nah, it's probably the first one.

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That super fast zonal PAC all with positive height anomalies makes me want to puke.

Or perhaps it's the bacon and macaroni cheese pizza I ate after getting drinks for my friend's birthday last night.

Nah, it's probably the first one.

There certainly isn't any fast, zonal flow within the confines of your arteries right now.

Plenty of blocking....equal chances for a stroke.

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Nino 3.4 continues to warm on the TAO. I don't think it's out of the question to see it hit +2.8C or higher on the weeklies, just eyeballing the current ssts on the TAO, it is at or exceeding +2.6C right now. It won't take much strengthening in November to get it to near or over +2.8C on the weeklies. Every sign is pointing to continued warming next month and a final peak come December, with this latest kelvin wave on the move, and another possible major WWB triggered by this latest MJO wave

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It will be interesting to see what if any impact the MJO will have on the December forecast.

Models have come into better agreement now that the D/L forcing that was expected for

November won't be back for a while. I suppose a slower D/L return could mean that the 

milder December idea of the Euro has more merit. But we probably won't have a

handle on this until the MJO fades out this month and we start to see new forecasts

around Thanksgiving.

 

JMA pre-MJO November forecast

 

attachicon.gifY201510.D0800_gl0.png

 

 

New JMA 

 

attachicon.gifY201510.D2812_gl0.png

 

 

 

The latest Roundy Plots retrograde the convection toward 160-180W for the bulk of November. We'll have to see how it plays out.

 

weeks1to2.png

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How viable a tool are the roundy plots?

 

Zero experience with that....

 

 

Like all tools, they certainly aren't infallible. However, I believe they do have a certain degree of predictive ability. Last winter, they were a useful aid in forecasting the eventual mid January pattern change w/ a more conducive Pacific.

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The interesting thing with the CFS is that the convection retrogrades west, but it doesn't seem strong enough to shift the

VP anomalies back to the D/L during November. I guess we'll have to wait and see where we stand once the 

MJO fades out this month. 

 

attachicon.gifolr.cfs.all.global.7.png

 

attachicon.gifchi200.cfs.all.global.7.png

 

 

 

Yes, it is interesting as I have often seen a disconnect / misalignment in the location of the strongest negative chi 200hpa anomalies and the core tropical convective cell, looking back through the data. This seems to be occasions in which the overall signal is rather muted, and thus the VP doesn't entirely represent where all of the convection develops. VP is - generally - a viable proxy for strongest convection, however.

 

My guess is that this amplified MJO wave is playing havoc w/ model forecasts, and given the rarity of the situation, it's difficult to say where exactly we go from here. However, MJO forecasts are notoriously poor, so I'm interested in seeing whether this MJO wave continues propagating forward into phases 3-4, like November 2009, or stalls / reverts back into phases 1-2. The wave itself has clearly disrupted the mean forcing pattern of the previous few weeks; the question now is what's next? The reorientation of SSTA over the past week supports the notion of basin wide forcing with a gradual westward retrogression, but we'll see. Recently, the upper divergence looks more like 1997 than it does other Nino years. I know that may sound some alarms, but this is why it's important to see where we go from here. Was the eastward displacement a transient occurrence induced via MJO forcing or are we shifting the regime entirely? As always, time will tell.

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Is it convection, or VP anomalies that drive the bus?

 

I would not be surprised to see the $hitty forcing remain through most of December and into January, so not too alarmed...though certainly I'm not doing flips.

 

 

Well, generally, VP anomalies are a useful proxy for ascertaining the general location of deep tropical convection or, conversely, subsidence, given that +VP indicates converging winds at 200hpa [thus, probably less convection lower in the atmosphere], and -VP is suggestive of divergent winds at 200hpa [so, usually more convection developing underneath]. Thus, most of the time, if you notice strong -OLR anomalies, usually you'd find that the VP anomalies are also negative in the same general region, and vice versa. It's the times in which the convection may be present but not all that robust that VP anomalies won't necessarily capture all of the convection. So, my overall impression is that we generally want to see a shift in the VP anomalies as we move through the next several weeks, but it's obviously just another tool to be utilized.

 

Note the following example, -VP generally aligns quite well with enhanced / suppressed convection, but sometimes doesn't capture all of the convection as you can see:

 

am_ir_monthly_60_E_1.gif

free image host

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Well, generally, VP anomalies are a useful proxy for ascertaining the general location of deep tropical convection or, conversely, subsidence, given that +VP indicates converging winds at 200hpa [thus, probably less convection lower in the atmosphere], and -VP is suggestive of divergent winds at 200hpa [so, usually more convection developing underneath]. Thus, most of the time, if you notice strong -OLR anomalies, usually you'd find that the VP anomalies are also negative in the same general region, and vice versa. It's the times in which the convection may be present but not all that robust that VP anomalies won't necessarily capture all of the convection. So, my overall impression is that we generally want to see a shift in the VP anomalies as we move through the next several weeks, but it's obviously just another tool to be utilized.

 

Note the following example, -VP generally aligns quite well with enhanced / suppressed convection, but sometimes doesn't capture all of the convection as you can see:

 

am_ir_monthly_60_E_1.gif

free image host

As I had suspected....thanks.

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JB thinks the EL Nino is peaking right now and should drop off sooner than later. He likes the mid to late November timeframe for the pattern to change. Joe Cioffi thinks it has peaked. Great signs for winter .

The GFS and GEFS MJO have it going back to 1. Euro has it bending backwards also.

Cioffi thinks only region 1+2 peaked. Region 3.4 continues to warm, 3.4 is what counts when measuring Nino strength, always has. It is now at +2.6C and climbing: https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/660170636518526976 we have a new downwelling kelvin wave pushing across the Nino regions as we speak, in addition, the trade winds have completely collapsed: https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/660171702496722944 and we just had a very massive, prolonged WWB, which started the new kelvin wave. All this means more warming of ENSO region 3.4 over the next month. This is not my prediction, it's what is actually happening, the laws of physics and nature say more warming to come
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