snowman19 Posted June 13, 2015 Author Share Posted June 13, 2015 Classic +IOD forming right now, checkout the latest SSTs around Australia, very rapid cooling going on in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 13, 2015 Author Share Posted June 13, 2015 We'll have to wait and see how much longer the lull lasts and whether the WWB and SOI pattern can return to what we saw back in March through May. This MJO pulse is having the opposite impact of the strong one back in March which helped initiate the El Nino development. That was a record 5-7 transit which has a different effect on the tropical winds and convection than the current very strong 1-3. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Tropical/ Bluewave, here you go. Looks like a very powerful WWB is going at materialize in early July...https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/609803151290429440 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 In the near term, the models have been indicating a -SOI drop around June 20th and beyond. The current more active phase of the trades with MJO pulse is forecast to decline with some WWB activity returning around this time. ENSO values and upper ocean heat have been steady the last few weeks. We also should get the IRI multimodel update this Thursday for June to see where the mean of all the models comes out. 27MAY2015 26.3 2.6 28.2 1.4 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1 03JUN2015 25.3 1.9 28.1 1.4 29.0 1.2 30.0 1.2 10JUN2015 25.7 2.6 28.1 1.5 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1 Indeed, today's 0Z Euro continues yesterday's suggestion of a strong -SOI 6/24 and suggests a very strong -SOI for 6/25. It also suggests that the remainder of June from then could easily be solidly to strongly in the -SOI's. So, the fate of June as a whole is still to be determined as there appears to be a strong push of -SOI's late. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 latest weekly oni 3.4 number was +1.3...soi is +10 and change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 Indeed, today's 0Z Euro continues yesterday's suggestion of a strong -SOI 6/24 and suggests a very strong -SOI for 6/25. It also suggests that the remainder of June from then could easily be solidly to strongly in the -SOI's. So, the fate of June as a whole is still to be determined as there appears to be a strong push of -SOI's late. We'll see.The subsurface anomalies are now the 2nd warmest ever on record, behind only 1997... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 I think it's safe to take 87-88 out of the analog list now. If you compare the evolution of that one to this Nino and where it stands now, other than both being a second year Nino, that's where the similarities end. It's literally night and day. This one is way warmer, surface and especially subsurface, it's not even close, neither is the progression and the forecasts of the expected enso pattern looking ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I think it's safe to take 87-88 out of the analog list now. If you compare the evolution of that one to this Nino and where it stands now, other than both being a second year Nino, that's where the similarities end. It's literally night and day. This one is way warmer, surface and especially subsurface, it's not even close, neither is the progression and the forecasts of the expected enso pattern looking ahead 87-88 had an early peak though, something it may have in common with this El Nino... Looks like the strength will fall between 57-58/09-10 and 82-83/97-98...a little stronger than the former but not a super Nino like the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 87-88 had an early peak though, something it may have in common with this El Nino... Looks like the strength will fall between 57-58/09-10 and 82-83/97-98...a little stronger than the former but not a super Nino like the latter. I don't think it's going to top '97-'98 but we are clearly headed for a higher peak than '87-'88, '57-'58 and '09-'10. I stated it already, but the current subsurface anomalies are the second warmest in recorded history, '97 being number one. As far as when this peaks? It looks to be a later peak than '87-'88, the models seem to be latching onto a November peak at the moment, whether or not that actually happens is anyone's guess right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I don't think it's going to top '97-'98 but we are clearly headed for a higher peak than '87-'88, '57-'58 and '09-'10. I stated it already, but the current subsurface anomalies are the second warmest in recorded history, '97 being number one. As far as when this peaks? It looks to be a later peak than '87-'88, the models seem to be latching onto a November peak at the moment, whether or not that actually happens is anyone's guess right now I think you might be overstating the importance of subsurface anomalies. The warmth of the subsurface layer doesn't necessarily translate into the magnitude of surface warming that will occur. Many were fooled back in the spring of 2014 when CFS et al projected a very strong El Nino. Subsurface anomalies were impressive, but they never surfaced. It depends upon the atmospheric circulation pattern. While this year is certainly different than last, the same caution about subsurface temperatures applies. The SOI - a valid indicator of the SW tropical Pacific pressure pattern - has been falling behind many of the > 2.0c peak El Nino's to date. The SOI average of the past 30 days has been +1.53. The SOI average in June 1972 was -12, June 1982 was -20, June 1997 -24.1. So we need an extremely negative period of SOI to begin shortly in order to have any chance of reaching those years SOI wise. Even 1987 had much stronger negative SOI at this time. We're most similar to years like 1957 and 1965 right now, which peaked at +1.8c and +1.9c respectively. I believe we'll likely beat 2009-10, which peaked at 1.6c on the trimonthlies, but I'm definitely not convinced we beat years like 1957 or 1965 yet. Think it's likely we have a solid strong El Nino on our hands though. My guess is we'll peak later than 1987's late summer climax, with a peak trimonthly period occurring around mid autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I think you might be overstating the importance of subsurface anomalies. The warmth of the subsurface layer doesn't necessarily translate into the magnitude of surface warming that will occur. Many were fooled back in the spring of 2014 when CFS et al projected a very strong El Nino. Subsurface anomalies were impressive, but they never surfaced. It depends upon the atmospheric circulation pattern. While this year is certainly different than last, the same caution about subsurface temperatures applies. The SOI - a valid indicator of the SW tropical Pacific pressure pattern - has been falling behind many of the > 2.0c peak El Nino's to date. The SOI average of the past 30 days has been +1.53. The SOI average in June 1972 was -12, June 1982 was -20, June 1997 -24.1. So we need an extremely negative period of SOI to begin shortly in order to have any chance of reaching those years SOI wise. Even 1987 had much stronger negative SOI at this time. We're most similar to years like 1957 and 1965 right now, which peaked at +1.8c and +1.9c respectively. I believe we'll likely beat 2009-10, which peaked at 1.6c on the trimonthlies, but I'm definitely not convinced we beat years like 1957 or 1965 yet. Think it's likely we have a solid strong El Nino on our hands though. My guess is we'll peak later than 1987's late summer climax, with a peak trimonthly period occurring around mid autumn. 1987 enso peaked around this time of year but stayed close to the peak until the late fall and dropped off after that...until I see the soi go very negative again this event has reached its peak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 1987 enso peaked around this time of year but stayed close to the peak until the late fall and dropped off after that...until I see the soi go very negative again this event has reached its peak... Is the enso in a moderate stage right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Is the enso in a moderate stage right now? at least that with a weekly oni of +1.3 and a mei number of +1.567... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 weekly oni for 1997... Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04JUN1997 26.4 3.1 28.0 1.3 28.8 1.1 29.4 0.6 11JUN1997 26.5 3.5 28.1 1.6 28.9 1.2 29.3 0.5 18JUN1997 26.0 3.3 28.2 1.8 29.0 1.4 29.4 0.6 25JUN1997 26.2 3.7 28.2 2.0 29.1 1.6 29.5 0.7 02JUL1997 25.9 3.7 28.1 2.1 29.0 1.5 29.4 0.6 09JUL1997 25.7 3.8 28.0 2.2 28.9 1.6 29.5 0.7 16JUL1997 25.7 4.1 28.1 2.5 29.0 1.8 29.5 0.7 23JUL1997 25.5 4.1 27.9 2.4 28.8 1.7 29.5 0.8 30JUL1997 25.2 4.0 27.9 2.6 28.9 1.9 29.5 0.8 06AUG1997 25.3 4.3 27.8 2.6 28.8 1.8 29.4 0.7 13AUG1997 25.4 4.6 27.9 2.9 28.9 2.0 29.3 0.6 20AUG1997 24.2 3.6 27.9 2.9 28.9 2.1 29.2 0.5 27AUG1997 24.3 3.7 27.7 2.7 28.8 2.0 29.2 0.5 03SEP1997 24.6 4.2 27.8 2.9 28.9 2.1 29.2 0.6 10SEP1997 24.6 4.2 27.8 2.9 28.9 2.2 29.3 0.6 17SEP1997 24.2 3.8 27.8 2.9 28.9 2.2 29.3 0.6 24SEP1997 24.4 3.9 27.9 3.0 28.9 2.2 29.5 0.8 01OCT1997 24.1 3.5 28.0 3.1 29.1 2.4 29.4 0.7 08OCT1997 24.5 3.8 28.1 3.2 29.2 2.6 29.3 0.6 15OCT1997 24.5 3.7 28.1 3.2 29.2 2.5 29.3 0.7 22OCT1997 24.9 3.9 28.2 3.3 29.3 2.6 29.5 0.8 29OCT1997 24.7 3.6 28.3 3.4 29.2 2.6 29.2 0.6 05NOV1997 25.0 3.7 28.4 3.4 29.2 2.6 29.2 0.6 12NOV1997 25.8 4.3 28.5 3.6 29.3 2.7 29.5 0.8 19NOV1997 25.8 4.1 28.6 3.6 29.3 2.7 29.7 1.1 26NOV1997 25.9 3.9 28.7 3.7 29.4 2.8 29.7 1.1 03DEC1997 26.2 3.9 28.6 3.6 29.2 2.6 29.4 0.9 10DEC1997 26.7 4.2 28.7 3.6 29.2 2.7 29.4 0.9 17DEC1997 27.0 4.1 28.8 3.6 29.3 2.7 29.3 0.8 24DEC1997 27.2 4.0 28.8 3.5 29.3 2.7 29.3 0.9 31DEC1997 27.7 4.1 28.9 3.5 29.2 2.7 29.2 0.8 ................................................................................................................................... soi for 1997... 1997 1 1013.09 1008.05 2.011997 2 1011.24 1005.20 6.721997 3 1010.30 1001.55 19.501997 4 1009.33 1005.40 -3.231997 5 1009.58 1009.40 -20.891997 6 1011.09 1010.35 -18.241997 7 1012.24 1010.05 -11.411997 8 1011.11 1009.60 -14.591997 9 1009.96 1008.35 -14.121997 10 1009.18 1008.05 -16.421997 11 1008.96 1008.30 -18.601997 12 1008.96 1008.95 -21.681997 13 1008.95 1008.50 -19.601997 14 1011.50 1008.45 -7.351997 15 1013.99 1007.90 6.961997 16 1014.09 1007.05 11.441997 17 1013.79 1006.65 11.911997 18 1015.14 1007.75 13.081997 19 1016.21 1007.80 17.911997 20 1015.78 1007.15 18.911997 21 1014.59 1007.75 10.491997 22 1015.69 1005.95 24.151997 23 1014.95 1005.05 24.921997 24 1014.34 1005.00 22.271997 25 1014.52 1005.50 20.801997 26 1014.30 1006.60 14.561997 27 1014.75 1006.65 16.441997 28 1013.96 1006.60 12.971997 29 1013.39 1007.55 5.781997 30 1013.11 1007.00 7.081997 31 1013.29 1007.30 6.491997 32 1012.81 1007.65 2.031997 33 1012.37 1007.40 1.131997 34 1012.85 1005.55 12.301997 35 1012.90 1006.00 10.381997 36 1012.89 1005.55 12.481997 37 1012.53 1005.15 12.661997 38 1011.72 1005.80 5.691997 39 1011.89 1007.55 -1.931997 40 1013.42 1007.80 4.251997 41 1015.15 1007.05 16.141997 42 1014.66 1006.45 16.681997 43 1014.04 1006.40 13.921997 44 1012.75 1006.25 8.461997 45 1012.51 1004.75 14.521997 46 1013.55 1005.15 17.581997 47 1013.55 1005.40 16.381997 48 1013.44 1005.15 17.041997 49 1013.49 1004.20 21.851997 50 1012.61 1003.95 18.841997 51 1011.04 1004.10 10.561997 52 1010.26 1002.70 13.561997 53 1009.37 1000.45 20.111997 54 1010.06 999.40 28.451997 55 1010.67 1000.70 25.151997 56 1011.05 1003.90 11.581997 57 1010.49 1005.55 0.951997 58 1009.85 1004.45 3.171997 59 1010.49 1002.75 14.401997 60 1012.37 1000.90 35.261997 61 1012.86 1001.00 37.121997 62 1012.05 1004.25 17.671997 63 1010.15 1004.10 9.291997 64 1010.23 1003.25 13.721997 65 1011.34 1004.50 13.061997 66 1011.72 1005.80 8.691997 67 1010.64 1005.90 3.001997 68 1009.49 1006.50 -5.371997 69 1009.04 1006.65 -8.251997 70 1009.00 1008.25 -16.091997 71 1008.12 1008.25 -20.281997 72 1008.88 1008.25 -16.681997 73 1010.97 1008.60 -8.311997 74 1013.18 1008.85 1.031997 75 1013.67 1010.05 -2.321997 76 1013.84 1010.45 -3.461997 77 1012.29 1011.25 -14.711997 78 1014.01 1011.30 -6.691997 79 1015.75 1010.60 4.981997 80 1014.11 1011.70 -8.121997 81 1011.33 1011.55 -20.691997 82 1009.53 1010.25 -23.081997 83 1009.46 1010.35 -23.921997 84 1009.17 1010.95 -28.171997 85 1009.38 1011.65 -30.501997 86 1008.01 1011.85 -38.041997 87 1007.55 1011.15 -36.911997 88 1010.10 1010.60 -22.071997 89 1011.92 1011.00 -15.241997 90 1011.97 1010.55 -12.851997 91 1010.97 1009.50 -6.591997 92 1010.62 1009.00 -5.511997 93 1010.38 1009.70 -12.271997 94 1011.60 1010.25 -7.501997 95 1012.31 1010.50 -4.161997 96 1011.82 1010.75 -9.481997 97 1011.32 1010.70 -12.721997 98 1010.90 1009.95 -10.381997 99 1010.40 1010.75 -19.761997 100 1010.45 1011.95 -28.051997 101 1009.91 1012.90 -38.781997 102 1010.83 1012.10 -26.341997 103 1013.11 1012.65 -13.901997 104 1012.07 1013.90 -30.391997 105 1011.98 1013.55 -28.501997 106 1012.61 1011.95 -12.451997 107 1013.21 1012.95 -15.341997 108 1013.32 1014.00 -22.101997 109 1012.40 1013.85 -27.691997 110 1012.25 1012.95 -22.281997 111 1013.12 1012.70 -14.171997 112 1013.61 1012.45 -8.851997 113 1013.67 1013.25 -14.171997 114 1013.87 1012.85 -9.841997 115 1014.51 1011.80 2.321997 116 1014.23 1012.55 -5.061997 117 1014.37 1012.55 -4.071997 118 1014.51 1012.05 0.521997 119 1013.61 1012.30 -7.771997 120 1012.18 1011.90 -15.161997 121 1010.32 1011.95 -24.161997 122 1010.43 1011.95 -23.301997 123 1009.15 1011.25 -27.801997 124 1007.38 1010.80 -37.851997 125 1009.52 1010.85 -21.861997 126 1012.38 1011.35 -3.771997 127 1012.23 1012.05 -10.281997 128 1010.62 1011.55 -18.801997 129 1009.93 1011.05 -20.231997 130 1012.50 1010.00 7.421997 131 1013.86 1010.15 16.711997 132 1012.55 1010.75 2.061997 133 1012.62 1011.15 -0.421997 134 1013.77 1010.50 13.361997 135 1013.63 1010.45 12.691997 136 1013.16 1010.35 9.821997 137 1011.92 1010.30 0.721997 138 1010.30 1010.70 -14.781997 139 1009.52 1011.00 -23.011997 140 1008.95 1010.80 -25.881997 141 1009.33 1011.60 -29.041997 142 1009.86 1012.20 -29.621997 143 1008.81 1012.75 -41.871997 144 1010.22 1013.25 -34.881997 145 1011.30 1013.20 -26.271997 146 1010.37 1013.70 -37.181997 147 1010.41 1012.80 -30.001997 148 1011.92 1012.70 -17.651997 149 1012.76 1013.15 -14.681997 150 1010.02 1013.95 -41.781997 151 1006.08 1015.75 -85.721997 152 1006.00 1015.70 -77.261997 153 1009.86 1015.50 -48.701997 154 1011.30 1015.25 -36.831997 155 1012.38 1015.90 -33.761997 156 1013.80 1014.80 -16.091997 157 1014.72 1014.95 -10.651997 158 1014.91 1015.90 -16.011997 159 1014.11 1016.90 -28.661997 160 1012.68 1016.55 -36.221997 161 1010.38 1015.10 -42.211997 162 1008.62 1014.45 -49.991997 163 1012.25 1014.45 -24.481997 164 1015.27 1014.60 -4.341997 165 1015.26 1013.50 3.321997 166 1014.11 1013.75 -6.521997 167 1009.58 1015.25 -48.871997 168 1008.01 1015.50 -61.701997 169 1010.45 1014.95 -40.701997 170 1014.88 1015.05 -10.211997 171 1016.36 1015.75 -4.761997 172 1014.62 1016.55 -22.601997 173 1011.96 1015.20 -31.831997 174 1011.22 1013.70 -26.461997 175 1012.38 1012.90 -12.671997 176 1014.86 1012.70 6.161997 177 1015.08 1012.75 7.361997 178 1013.71 1013.05 -4.391997 179 1011.87 1013.35 -19.431997 180 1011.27 1013.05 -21.541997 181 1012.31 1012.45 -10.021997 182 1014.12 1012.60 3.531997 183 1014.76 1012.90 5.611997 184 1015.10 1012.75 8.611997 185 1014.80 1012.75 6.771997 186 1014.11 1012.35 5.001997 187 1014.55 1012.55 6.461997 188 1014.31 1012.90 2.841997 189 1012.71 1012.65 -5.451997 190 1013.45 1012.70 -1.181997 191 1014.82 1012.95 5.691997 192 1015.68 1013.05 10.361997 193 1015.68 1013.60 7.001997 194 1015.91 1014.25 4.381997 195 1015.17 1015.05 -5.071997 196 1013.06 1014.70 -15.921997 197 1012.95 1013.60 -9.841997 198 1014.56 1014.40 -4.841997 199 1013.90 1015.15 -13.541997 200 1011.90 1014.80 -23.701997 201 1011.01 1015.00 -30.391997 202 1010.46 1014.45 -30.391997 203 1010.91 1015.55 -34.391997 204 1011.15 1015.85 -34.781997 205 1011.86 1014.80 -23.931997 206 1012.87 1014.75 -17.391997 207 1014.68 1015.30 -9.611997 208 1014.82 1016.25 -14.621997 209 1014.01 1016.05 -18.391997 210 1014.78 1015.80 -12.081997 211 1014.57 1015.75 -13.081997 212 1013.35 1016.05 -22.461997 213 1013.73 1015.55 -20.831997 214 1015.30 1014.70 -6.191997 215 1014.61 1015.60 -15.821997 216 1012.92 1016.10 -29.101997 217 1012.56 1015.85 -29.781997 218 1012.91 1015.25 -24.021997 219 1014.36 1014.50 -10.661997 220 1015.97 1014.55 -1.181997 221 1016.40 1015.95 -7.101997 222 1015.12 1016.65 -19.091997 223 1014.96 1017.45 -24.931997 224 1015.71 1016.85 -16.731997 225 1015.38 1016.60 -17.191997 226 1014.91 1016.05 -16.731997 227 1014.92 1015.60 -13.931997 228 1014.46 1015.25 -14.611997 229 1013.50 1013.95 -12.561997 230 1013.30 1012.95 -7.701997 231 1012.81 1013.60 -14.611997 232 1010.62 1013.60 -27.891997 233 1009.98 1013.95 -33.881997 234 1011.25 1013.95 -26.221997 235 1012.86 1014.25 -18.251997 236 1013.18 1014.85 -19.921997 237 1012.63 1015.55 -27.511997 238 1012.63 1015.85 -29.331997 239 1012.13 1015.30 -29.031997 240 1013.26 1015.20 -21.591997 241 1014.35 1014.65 -11.651997 242 1013.45 1014.90 -18.631997 243 1014.33 1014.85 -12.941997 244 1014.51 1014.45 -13.411997 245 1014.38 1014.05 -11.781997 246 1014.81 1014.30 -10.741997 247 1014.60 1014.80 -14.971997 248 1013.87 1014.50 -17.501997 249 1013.42 1013.60 -14.821997 250 1014.11 1013.85 -12.221997 251 1014.42 1013.65 -9.181997 252 1013.36 1013.85 -16.681997 253 1012.77 1014.30 -22.871997 254 1013.26 1013.85 -17.271997 255 1013.21 1013.50 -15.491997 256 1013.46 1013.80 -15.791997 257 1012.72 1014.45 -24.031997 258 1012.50 1014.20 -23.891997 259 1013.45 1014.60 -20.621997 260 1014.18 1016.35 -26.631997 261 1015.32 1016.85 -22.851997 262 1016.91 1016.45 -11.031997 263 1017.13 1015.00 -1.081997 264 1016.21 1015.25 -8.061997 265 1016.07 1015.30 -9.181997 266 1016.17 1015.65 -10.661997 267 1017.22 1014.45 2.701997 268 1014.96 1013.10 -2.711997 269 1013.10 1013.65 -17.051997 270 1014.82 1014.70 -13.041997 271 1016.51 1015.60 -8.351997 272 1015.50 1015.30 -12.591997 273 1014.32 1015.70 -21.951997 274 1014.58 1014.90 -20.651997 275 1015.68 1014.20 -9.041997 276 1016.06 1014.85 -10.811997 277 1013.92 1015.05 -25.881997 278 1011.77 1014.00 -32.981997 279 1012.22 1013.25 -25.241997 280 1013.10 1013.20 -19.281997 281 1014.48 1013.95 -15.161997 282 1013.52 1013.85 -20.731997 283 1013.67 1014.00 -20.731997 284 1016.51 1013.90 -1.781997 285 1017.01 1014.25 -0.821997 286 1015.82 1013.75 -5.251997 287 1014.18 1012.45 -7.431997 288 1013.05 1011.50 -8.641997 289 1012.71 1012.00 -14.031997 290 1013.58 1012.20 -9.691997 291 1014.38 1012.70 -7.751997 292 1014.75 1012.60 -4.771997 293 1014.40 1012.60 -7.021997 294 1015.06 1012.65 -3.071997 295 1014.95 1012.70 -4.121997 296 1014.68 1012.90 -7.111997 297 1013.90 1013.60 -16.701997 298 1013.25 1014.00 -23.471997 299 1011.28 1014.40 -38.721997 300 1009.97 1014.30 -46.541997 301 1010.11 1013.65 -41.441997 302 1010.26 1013.35 -38.541997 303 1010.97 1013.00 -31.691997 304 1011.67 1011.70 -18.791997 305 1010.76 1012.15 -27.161997 306 1010.90 1012.90 -31.051997 307 1009.87 1013.35 -40.441997 308 1007.58 1013.60 -56.591997 309 1009.70 1013.15 -40.291997 310 1012.46 1012.65 -19.521997 311 1012.98 1013.50 -21.591997 312 1013.88 1013.30 -14.581997 313 1014.80 1012.05 -0.821997 314 1016.20 1011.90 9.031997 315 1016.32 1012.60 5.371997 316 1016.17 1012.55 4.741997 317 1016.97 1011.25 18.091997 318 1016.71 1010.60 20.561997 319 1016.05 1010.35 17.941997 320 1015.12 1010.65 10.151997 321 1014.40 1010.20 8.401997 322 1013.91 1011.10 -0.431997 323 1012.97 1010.90 -5.141997 324 1012.96 1012.10 -12.831997 325 1012.00 1011.65 -16.101997 326 1011.41 1010.45 -12.201997 327 1010.93 1009.40 -8.541997 328 1010.28 1009.60 -13.951997 329 1009.60 1011.45 -30.101997 330 1009.20 1011.75 -34.561997 331 1007.02 1011.15 -44.581997 332 1009.05 1010.05 -24.641997 333 1008.87 1010.75 -30.261997 334 1009.17 1010.15 -24.531997 335 1009.74 1010.60 -23.751997 336 1010.23 1010.95 -23.001997 337 1009.83 1010.20 -21.191997 338 1009.47 1009.90 -21.511997 339 1009.15 1009.70 -22.161997 340 1008.61 1009.70 -24.951997 341 1007.72 1008.70 -24.361997 342 1008.51 1008.45 -18.981997 343 1009.63 1009.35 -17.811997 344 1010.08 1010.15 -19.631997 345 1009.62 1010.00 -21.261997 346 1009.40 1010.55 -25.271997 347 1010.40 1009.80 -16.191997 348 1011.40 1009.05 -7.101997 349 1012.17 1008.95 -2.571997 350 1012.15 1008.55 -0.621997 351 1011.48 1008.35 -3.021997 352 1012.66 1008.85 0.481997 353 1011.90 1009.75 -8.151997 354 1011.70 1009.85 -9.701997 355 1011.55 1010.45 -13.601997 356 1011.58 1010.25 -12.361997 357 1010.22 1008.50 -10.351997 358 1009.76 1007.75 -8.861997 359 1011.05 1007.15 0.931997 360 1010.93 1005.75 7.611997 361 1010.76 1004.95 10.851997 362 1010.77 1005.60 7.551997 363 1009.83 1006.45 -1.721997 364 1008.67 1005.30 -1.781997 365 1008.12 1004.75 -1.79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 I think you might be overstating the importance of subsurface anomalies. The warmth of the subsurface layer doesn't necessarily translate into the magnitude of surface warming that will occur. Many were fooled back in the spring of 2014 when CFS et al projected a very strong El Nino. Subsurface anomalies were impressive, but they never surfaced. It depends upon the atmospheric circulation pattern. While this year is certainly different than last, the same caution about subsurface temperatures applies. The SOI - a valid indicator of the SW tropical Pacific pressure pattern - has been falling behind many of the > 2.0c peak El Nino's to date. The SOI average of the past 30 days has been +1.53. The SOI average in June 1972 was -12, June 1982 was -20, June 1997 -24.1. So we need an extremely negative period of SOI to begin shortly in order to have any chance of reaching those years SOI wise. Even 1987 had much stronger negative SOI at this time. We're most similar to years like 1957 and 1965 right now, which peaked at +1.8c and +1.9c respectively. I believe we'll likely beat 2009-10, which peaked at 1.6c on the trimonthlies, but I'm definitely not convinced we beat years like 1957 or 1965 yet. Think it's likely we have a solid strong El Nino on our hands though. My guess is we'll peak later than 1987's late summer climax, with a peak trimonthly period occurring around mid autumn. I agree. I can see a "low end" super peak like maybe +2.0C or +2.1C. And if it does in fact peak in November that would still be kind of early. 1987 peaked in September, I can see this one peaking later as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The Long Paddock daily SOI site just updated and the SOI average in June through the 16th is +4.91. So we'll see where we finish after the late month SOI drop. Today's 0Z Euro continues to show the big SOI drop for the last week of June. Very strong -SOI's are suggested for at least a few days. There could be some days rivaling the most negative SOI's of any for this year to date (-40's). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Isotherm, btw, did you see the downwelling kelvin wave traversing through region 3 right now? Anomalies of +6, subsurface are showing up with it, it will be moving into region 1+2 by July. It is very strong, stronger than the April one actually. If I'm a betting man, I'm going to say the eastern regions (3 and 1+2) SSTS soar in July... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Got this from the enso thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Got this from the enso thread I just noticed they down graded the weak el nino to weak positive (Neutral) for 2014-15... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 2009-2010 was dropped from a peak trimonthly of +1.6 to +1.3 on the update. Most El Nino years were lowered to some extent. what's going on here?...why the change?...I noticed 1979-80 is now a weak el nino...It looks like more blue colors overall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Today's 0Z Euro continues to show the big SOI drop for the last week of June. Very strong -SOI's are suggested for at least a few days. There could be some days rivaling the most negative SOI's of any for this year to date (-40's). Today's 0Z Euro goes full steam ahead with the big SOI drop for late month with some days of the last week of June likely at least rivaling the most negative SOI's of the year to date (-40's). By 6/20, there should already be a pretty solid -SOI. It may then rise back to less negative for a couple of days. However, once we get to 6/24 and especially beyond, look out below! I wonder if this big SOI drop will lead to major changes in the US pattern. Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Today's 0Z Euro goes full steam ahead with the big SOI drop for late month with some days of the last week of June likely at least rivaling the most negative SOI's of the year to date (-40's). By 6/20, there should already be a pretty solid -SOI. It may then rise back to less negative for a couple of days. However, once we get to 6/24 and especially beyond, look out below! I wonder if this big SOI drop will lead to major changes in the US pattern. Opinions? If this drop materializes and a SOI- situation persists, perhaps the pattern will evolve to the point where a trough takes hold in the East 2 or 3 weeks later. There's a hint of that outcome on the Week 4 CFSv2 forecasts, though that's still very far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 If this drop materializes and a SOI- situation persists, perhaps the pattern will evolve to the point where a trough takes hold in the East 2 or 3 weeks later. There's a hint of that outcome on the Week 4 CFSv2 forecasts, though that's still very far out.Also of note Don, there appears to be a strong +IOD forming, that may help bring a more sustained period of -SOI and WWBs with the cold water around Austrailia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Also of note Don, there appears to be a strong +IOD forming, that may help bring a more sustained period of -SOI and WWBs with the cold water around Austrailia I agree. Even with the early data, considering how strengthening ENSO events evolve, a sustained SOI- period often follows temporary periods where it goes neutral or positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 I agree. I can see a "low end" super peak like maybe +2.0C or +2.1C. And if it does in fact peak in November that would still be kind of early. 1987 peaked in September, I can see this one peaking later as well Isotherm, btw, did you see the downwelling kelvin wave traversing through region 3 right now? Anomalies of +6, subsurface are showing up with it, it will be moving into region 1+2 by July. It is very strong, stronger than the April one actually. If I'm a betting man, I'm going to say the eastern regions (3 and 1+2) SSTS soar in July... Yes, and the tropical convection has been quite robust in the equatorial regions east of the dateline. I have no doubt that we're going to see some rapid intensification over the next 6-8 weeks as SOI values begin to tank. Pressures are progged to increase dramatically over Australia, and this will provide impetus for strong WWB's / weakening of the easterly tropical trades. The water around Australia has also been cooling slightly over the past week as the IO simultaneously warms, and those indicators are quite classic precursors for strong El Nino events. The latest JAMSTEC run is very bullish with the Nino and agrees w/ your thinking on a peak region 3.4 of around +2.1c. I still have reservations that it will be that intense; however, as I noted earlier, I fully expect that the peak will be higher than years like 2009-10, 1994-95, etc., and come close to 1957-58, and 1965-66. My guess is still 1.7c-1.9c peak in region 3.4 with the climax occurring in early to mid autumn, but it will be interesting to see how it evolves. IRI update comes out tomorrow I believe. As of now, we're behind super nino years like 72/82/97 in SOI progression. So we'll see if it catches up or recovers in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Nino region 3 has just gone above the strong threshold of +1.5C and it would appear given the current conditions and forecasts ahead that region 1+2 ssts are about to warm very dramatically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 todays soi was -34...lowest it's been in months.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 todays soi was -34...lowest it's been in months....We are entering a period of severely -SOI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Just so everyone can see how completely and totally different 1987 is to now, take a look at these side by side maps. I don't know why it is being used as an analog other than its a 2nd year Nino. It's not even close, globally or ENSO wise: https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/612368533616398336 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 The newest CFSv2 forecast keeps the possibility of a super El Niño on the proverbial table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 The newest CFSv2 forecast keeps the possibility of a super El Niño on the proverbial table. I think it's definitely in the realm of possibilities in region 3.4, I also think we may see all time record warm ssts in the eastern regions (3 and 1+2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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