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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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Yes 3 and 3.4 could warm through November . But the meaningful warming in 1.2 is done .

Agreed, if you look at the new downwelling kelvin wave progression, the final peak should come in early December, then that's all she wrote for this Nino's strengthening IMO, regions 3 and 3.4 should continue to warm through November
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Agreed, if you look at the new downwelling kelvin wave progression, the final peak should come in early December, then that's all she wrote for this Nino's strengthening IMO, regions 3 and 3.4 should continue to warm through November

even though there may be some warming in 3 and 3.4, imho it's more a shift of the warmest anomalies in 3 moving west, which has what has been happening looking at the maps ORH posted

I'm starting to think this may be better than I could have hoped for as recent as a month ago

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even though there may be some warming in 3 and 3.4, imho it's more a shift of the warmest anomalies in 3 moving west, which has what has been happening looking at the maps ORH posted

I'm starting to think this may be better than I could have hoped for as recent as a month ago

One can argue that this "basin wide event" will morph into a central based/ modoki hybrid before too long.

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One can argue that this "basin wide event" will morph into a central based/ modoki hybrid before too long.

 

 

A basin wide effect is all you need . R4 is too warm for this ever to be classified as a Modoki .

But we don`t need a Modoki for semi cold/snowy weather . 

 

Look at the resulting forcing and 500mb patterns  in the basin wide years 

 

post-525-0-32101400-1445449818.png

 

post-525-0-44810800-1445449906.png

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One can argue that this "basin wide event" will morph into a central based/ modoki hybrid before too long.

Just like east-based, the ship has already sailed into the sunset on a modoki. It's not happening this year. The hopes of one are gone, it's over, bring down the curtain, stick a fork in it it's done, the fat lady has sung, say goodnight Gracie...
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The subsurface warmth is not that impressive when compared to bigger years . Not all subsurface heat makes it to the surface . Those winds are not that impressive as to make me believe what does surface has to make it east of 100 . 

Finally 1.2 has already cooled considerably so anything from this point forward is a non event 

post-7472-0-44473200-1446032603_thumb.gi

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The subsurface warmth is not that impressive when compared to bigger years . Not all subsurface water makes it to the surface . Those winds are not that impressive as to make me believe what does surface has to make it east of 100 . 

Finally 1.2 has already cooled considerably so anything from this point forward is a non event 

 

Yeah, you can also see how the warmest subsurface waters have shifted west along with the surface in October.

Not sure why this is surprise to some since it has been well forecast by the model consensus for quite some time now.

 

 

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Yeah, you can also see how the warmest subsurface waters have shifted west along with the surface in October.

Not sure why this is surprise to some since it has been well forecast by the model consensus for quite some time now.

 

attachicon.gifScreen shot 2015-10-28 at 7.55.15 AM.png

 

attachicon.gifssttlon5_c.gif

 

Me either .

 

Chris , the fall model outlooks shifted this west back in  May . Nothing changed . This evolved like it was suppose too . 

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Anyone who is well versed in understanding what this graphic is showing can't in good faith say that it's not a classic precursor to major warming near SA.

The thermocline just flattened.

There is 7C+ anomalies now

This will cause major surface warming.

 

 

 

 

I have to commend your passion; 440AM posts regarding the thermocline. That's dedication.

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Yeah, you can also see how the warmest subsurface waters have shifted west along with the surface in October.

Not sure why this is surprise to some since it has been well forecast by the model consensus for quite some time now.

Screen shot 2015-10-28 at 7.55.15 AM.png

ssttlon5_c.gif

Mike Ventrice just tweeted this, the main Nino tropical convective forcing cell is located at 132W right now: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/659375909527552002
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The subsurface warmth is not that impressive when compared to bigger years . Not all subsurface heat makes it to the surface . Those winds are not that impressive as to make me believe what does surface has to make it east of 100 .

Finally 1.2 has already cooled considerably so anything from this point forward is a non event

You mean the biggest East based mino since 1860s?

Not bigger ones.

This nino is already going to peak in the top 5 since the 1860s.

And the winds don't reverse the same strength as the winds near the dateline.

Enso 3 has exploded again.

Enso 1-2 is next

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You mean the biggest East based mino since 1860s?

Not bigger ones.

This nino is already going to peak in the top 5 since the 1860s.

And the winds don't reverse the same strength as the winds near the dateline.

Enso 3 has exploded again.

Enso 1-2 is next

Put the crack pipe down.

 

1997 was the daddy of all easties.

 

Maybe if you'd slept, rather than posting about thermocline at 4am you'd be making more sense.

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You mean the biggest East based mino since 1860s?

Not bigger ones.

This nino is already going to peak in the top 5 since the 1860s.

And the winds don't reverse the same strength as the winds near the dateline.

Enso 3 has exploded again.

Enso 1-2 is next

 

 

R3 - 3.4 - 4 have all ticked up, then again WE have been warning that was going to happen over the past 2 months , but you did not listen .

So don`t claim R3 as a VICTORY, that`s ours . :)

 

As far as 1.2 , it`s almost done and I mean done . 

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Put the crack pipe down.

1997 was the daddy of all easties.

Maybe if you'd slept, rather than posting about thermocline at 4am you'd be making more sense.

What?

He said it's not close to the "bigger" ones.

While cherry picking the biggest one from 1997.

1997 is the strongest nino.

I said this one will reach top 5 status.

What exactly is wrong with that statement.

Comparing the subsurface to "ONE nino.

Then inferring multiple ninos is cherry picking and misleading.

The subsurface is only 2nd to 1997 going back to 1979.

Maybe the late 1890s or 1910s ninos were bigger.

But this one is top 5

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What?

He said it's not close to the "bigger" ones.

While cherry picking the biggest one from 1997.

1997 is the strongest nino.

I said this one will reach top 5 status.

What exactly is wrong with that statement.

Comparing the subsurface to "ONE nino.

Then inferring multiple ninos is cherry picking and misleading.

The subsurface is only 2nd to 1997 going back to 1979.

Maybe the late 1890s or 1910s ninos were bigger.

But this one is top 5

 

I said when comparing the subsurface to 97 ( bigger ones ) and I posted the differences that  it wasn`t impressive . You keep posting ( x ) will surface .

Not all subsurface warmth surfaces , you know this . Not all surface warmth has to spread east , you know this .

 

A month ago WSI speculated on a Rossby wave being present  , have you considered that it`s real after seeing the verification over the past 5 weeks ? 

Or have you considered what I just posted above .

The  analysis has been off   . You have been posting the same idea for 6 weeks and the slope in 1.2 got steeper .

 

Could 1.2 pop again ? sure but at this point it will not matter .  1.2 has declined twice sine July, the central and western basin wants to stay warm from 100 on W .

 

While you are screaming 1.2  I think you missed how impressive 3  3.4 and 4  have  turned out. 

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What?

He said it's not close to the "bigger" ones.

While cherry picking the biggest one from 1997.

1997 is the strongest nino.

I said this one will reach top 5 status.

What exactly is wrong with that statement.

Comparing the subsurface to "ONE nino.

Then inferring multiple ninos is cherry picking and misleading.

The subsurface is only 2nd to 1997 going back to 1979.

Maybe the late 1890s or 1910s ninos were bigger.

But this one is top 5

My bad.

Misunderstood you.

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I said when comparing the subsurface to 97 ( bigger ones ) and I posted the differences that it wasn`t impressive . You keep posting ( x ) will surface .

Not all subsurface warmth surfaces , you know this . Not all surface warmth has to spread east , you know this .

A month ago WSI speculated on a Rossby wave being present , have you considered that it`s real after seeing the verification over the past 5 weeks ?

Or have you considered what I just posted above .

The analysis has been off . You have been posting the same idea for 6 weeks and the slope in 1.2 got steeper .

Could 1.2 pop again ? sure but at this point it will not matter . 1.2 has declined twice sine July, the central basin wants to stay warm from 100 on W .

While you are screaming 1.2 I think you missed how impressive 3 3.4 and 4 have turned out.

No doubt enso 1-2 has cooler.

But the winds are set up to warm the epac

VavWRyN.jpg

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I said when comparing the subsurface to 97 ( bigger ones ) and I posted the differences that it wasn`t impressive . You keep posting ( x ) will surface .

Not all subsurface warmth surfaces , you know this . Not all surface warmth has to spread east , you know this .

A month ago WSI speculated on a Rossby wave being present , have you considered that it`s real after seeing the verification over the past 5 weeks ?

Or have you considered what I just posted above .

The analysis has been off . You have been posting the same idea for 6 weeks and the slope in 1.2 got steeper .

Could 1.2 pop again ? sure but at this point it will not matter . 1.2 has declined twice sine July, the central basin wants to stay warm from 100 on W .

While you are screaming 1.2 I think you missed how impressive 3 3.4 and 4 have turned out.

No doubt enso 1-2 has cooler.

But the winds are set up to warm the epac

VavWRyN.jpg

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No doubt enso 1-2 has cooler.

But the winds are set up to warm the epac

VavWRyN.jpg

 

I like the strength of this  NINO on balance . I think there is no analog to the PAC as a whole as it`s on fire .

 

I am just  not impressed w 1.2 they way I am with 3  3.4  4 ,off the Baja and N EP region , that`s all . 

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I like the strength of this  NINO on balance . I think there is no analog to the PAC as a whole as it`s on fire .

 

I am just  not impressed w 1.2 they way I am with 3  3.4  4 ,off the Baja and N EP region , that`s all . 

 

I guess people just got used to very strong El Nino = east based like we saw in 82-83 and 97-98.

But the 2000's delivered a further west trend to El Ninos.....More impressive back to Nino 4 along 

with the much warmer PDO region off the West Coast.

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