Weathergun Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 850mb and 925mb zonal postive wind anomalies past 30 days highest further near or west of dateline, very weak negative anomalies over EPAC, show why this has more basin-wide nino so far. Weaker 850mb zonal winds return much of Pacific next week. So that's it:: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Which region do you think peaked? 3.4 and 3 are still warming, you mean 1+2 right? Yes 3 and 3.4 could warm through November . But the meaningful warming in 1.2 is done . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 Yes 3 and 3.4 could warm through November . But the meaningful warming in 1.2 is done .Agreed, if you look at the new downwelling kelvin wave progression, the final peak should come in early December, then that's all she wrote for this Nino's strengthening IMO, regions 3 and 3.4 should continue to warm through November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Agreed, if you look at the new downwelling kelvin wave progression, the final peak should come in early December, then that's all she wrote for this Nino's strengthening IMO, regions 3 and 3.4 should continue to warm through November even though there may be some warming in 3 and 3.4, imho it's more a shift of the warmest anomalies in 3 moving west, which has what has been happening looking at the maps ORH posted I'm starting to think this may be better than I could have hoped for as recent as a month ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 even though there may be some warming in 3 and 3.4, imho it's more a shift of the warmest anomalies in 3 moving west, which has what has been happening looking at the maps ORH posted I'm starting to think this may be better than I could have hoped for as recent as a month ago One can argue that this "basin wide event" will morph into a central based/ modoki hybrid before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 One can argue that this "basin wide event" will morph into a central based/ modoki hybrid before too long. yep....if only I had matured as well as this NINO has of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 One can argue that this "basin wide event" will morph into a central based/ modoki hybrid before too long. A basin wide effect is all you need . R4 is too warm for this ever to be classified as a Modoki . But we don`t need a Modoki for semi cold/snowy weather . Look at the resulting forcing and 500mb patterns in the basin wide years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 One can argue that this "basin wide event" will morph into a central based/ modoki hybrid before too long.Just like east-based, the ship has already sailed into the sunset on a modoki. It's not happening this year. The hopes of one are gone, it's over, bring down the curtain, stick a fork in it it's done, the fat lady has sung, say goodnight Gracie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Anyone who is well versed in understanding what this graphic is showing can't in good faith say that it's not a classic precursor to major warming near SA. The thermocline just flattened. There is 7C+ anomalies now This will cause major surface warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 The subsurface warmth is not that impressive when compared to bigger years . Not all subsurface heat makes it to the surface . Those winds are not that impressive as to make me believe what does surface has to make it east of 100 . Finally 1.2 has already cooled considerably so anything from this point forward is a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 The subsurface warmth is not that impressive when compared to bigger years . Not all subsurface water makes it to the surface . Those winds are not that impressive as to make me believe what does surface has to make it east of 100 . Finally 1.2 has already cooled considerably so anything from this point forward is a non event Yeah, you can also see how the warmest subsurface waters have shifted west along with the surface in October. Not sure why this is surprise to some since it has been well forecast by the model consensus for quite some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Yeah, you can also see how the warmest subsurface waters have shifted west along with the surface in October. Not sure why this is surprise to some since it has been well forecast by the model consensus for quite some time now. Screen shot 2015-10-28 at 7.55.15 AM.png ssttlon5_c.gif Me either . Chris , the fall model outlooks shifted this west back in May . Nothing changed . This evolved like it was suppose too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Anyone who is well versed in understanding what this graphic is showing can't in good faith say that it's not a classic precursor to major warming near SA. The thermocline just flattened. There is 7C+ anomalies now This will cause major surface warming. I have to commend your passion; 440AM posts regarding the thermocline. That's dedication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I have to commend your passion; 440AM posts regarding the thermocline. That's dedication. Just out of curiosity, was GW one of the nostradamus armageddon godzilla el nino hype artists? The answer to the question will help me put all of this back and forth into context... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 Yeah, you can also see how the warmest subsurface waters have shifted west along with the surface in October. Not sure why this is surprise to some since it has been well forecast by the model consensus for quite some time now. Screen shot 2015-10-28 at 7.55.15 AM.png ssttlon5_c.gif Mike Ventrice just tweeted this, the main Nino tropical convective forcing cell is located at 132W right now: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/659375909527552002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I have to commend your passion; 440AM posts regarding the thermocline. That's dedication LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 This is a pretty impressive 1+2 drop for late October during and El Nino event. It will be interesting to see how high the October PDO index gets since the EPAC has warmed since September. pac_oisst_anom_current.png Just hope R 1.2 doesn't recover too much next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I don't really care that 1.2 is cooling now if it makes a major recovery, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 The subsurface warmth is not that impressive when compared to bigger years . Not all subsurface heat makes it to the surface . Those winds are not that impressive as to make me believe what does surface has to make it east of 100 . Finally 1.2 has already cooled considerably so anything from this point forward is a non event You mean the biggest East based mino since 1860s? Not bigger ones. This nino is already going to peak in the top 5 since the 1860s. And the winds don't reverse the same strength as the winds near the dateline. Enso 3 has exploded again. Enso 1-2 is next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 You mean the biggest East based mino since 1860s? Not bigger ones. This nino is already going to peak in the top 5 since the 1860s. And the winds don't reverse the same strength as the winds near the dateline. Enso 3 has exploded again. Enso 1-2 is next Put the crack pipe down. 1997 was the daddy of all easties. Maybe if you'd slept, rather than posting about thermocline at 4am you'd be making more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 You mean the biggest East based mino since 1860s? Not bigger ones. This nino is already going to peak in the top 5 since the 1860s. And the winds don't reverse the same strength as the winds near the dateline. Enso 3 has exploded again. Enso 1-2 is next R3 - 3.4 - 4 have all ticked up, then again WE have been warning that was going to happen over the past 2 months , but you did not listen . So don`t claim R3 as a VICTORY, that`s ours . As far as 1.2 , it`s almost done and I mean done . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 2015- 1997 . Don`t sweat it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Put the crack pipe down. 1997 was the daddy of all easties. Maybe if you'd slept, rather than posting about thermocline at 4am you'd be making more sense. What? He said it's not close to the "bigger" ones. While cherry picking the biggest one from 1997. 1997 is the strongest nino. I said this one will reach top 5 status. What exactly is wrong with that statement. Comparing the subsurface to "ONE nino. Then inferring multiple ninos is cherry picking and misleading. The subsurface is only 2nd to 1997 going back to 1979. Maybe the late 1890s or 1910s ninos were bigger. But this one is top 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 2015- 1997 . Don`t sweat it . The actual sets over the far epac aren't that warm.Being slightly cooler isn't a big deal. When enso 3 is blazing. We can see the explosive warming taking place over enso 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 What? He said it's not close to the "bigger" ones. While cherry picking the biggest one from 1997. 1997 is the strongest nino. I said this one will reach top 5 status. What exactly is wrong with that statement. Comparing the subsurface to "ONE nino. Then inferring multiple ninos is cherry picking and misleading. The subsurface is only 2nd to 1997 going back to 1979. Maybe the late 1890s or 1910s ninos were bigger. But this one is top 5 I said when comparing the subsurface to 97 ( bigger ones ) and I posted the differences that it wasn`t impressive . You keep posting ( x ) will surface . Not all subsurface warmth surfaces , you know this . Not all surface warmth has to spread east , you know this . A month ago WSI speculated on a Rossby wave being present , have you considered that it`s real after seeing the verification over the past 5 weeks ? Or have you considered what I just posted above . The analysis has been off . You have been posting the same idea for 6 weeks and the slope in 1.2 got steeper . Could 1.2 pop again ? sure but at this point it will not matter . 1.2 has declined twice sine July, the central and western basin wants to stay warm from 100 on W . While you are screaming 1.2 I think you missed how impressive 3 3.4 and 4 have turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 What? He said it's not close to the "bigger" ones. While cherry picking the biggest one from 1997. 1997 is the strongest nino. I said this one will reach top 5 status. What exactly is wrong with that statement. Comparing the subsurface to "ONE nino. Then inferring multiple ninos is cherry picking and misleading. The subsurface is only 2nd to 1997 going back to 1979. Maybe the late 1890s or 1910s ninos were bigger. But this one is top 5 My bad. Misunderstood you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I said when comparing the subsurface to 97 ( bigger ones ) and I posted the differences that it wasn`t impressive . You keep posting ( x ) will surface . Not all subsurface warmth surfaces , you know this . Not all surface warmth has to spread east , you know this . A month ago WSI speculated on a Rossby wave being present , have you considered that it`s real after seeing the verification over the past 5 weeks ? Or have you considered what I just posted above . The analysis has been off . You have been posting the same idea for 6 weeks and the slope in 1.2 got steeper . Could 1.2 pop again ? sure but at this point it will not matter . 1.2 has declined twice sine July, the central basin wants to stay warm from 100 on W . While you are screaming 1.2 I think you missed how impressive 3 3.4 and 4 have turned out. No doubt enso 1-2 has cooler. But the winds are set up to warm the epac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I said when comparing the subsurface to 97 ( bigger ones ) and I posted the differences that it wasn`t impressive . You keep posting ( x ) will surface . Not all subsurface warmth surfaces , you know this . Not all surface warmth has to spread east , you know this . A month ago WSI speculated on a Rossby wave being present , have you considered that it`s real after seeing the verification over the past 5 weeks ? Or have you considered what I just posted above . The analysis has been off . You have been posting the same idea for 6 weeks and the slope in 1.2 got steeper . Could 1.2 pop again ? sure but at this point it will not matter . 1.2 has declined twice sine July, the central basin wants to stay warm from 100 on W . While you are screaming 1.2 I think you missed how impressive 3 3.4 and 4 have turned out. No doubt enso 1-2 has cooler. But the winds are set up to warm the epac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 No doubt enso 1-2 has cooler. But the winds are set up to warm the epac I like the strength of this NINO on balance . I think there is no analog to the PAC as a whole as it`s on fire . I am just not impressed w 1.2 they way I am with 3 3.4 4 ,off the Baja and N EP region , that`s all . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I like the strength of this NINO on balance . I think there is no analog to the PAC as a whole as it`s on fire . I am just not impressed w 1.2 they way I am with 3 3.4 4 ,off the Baja and N EP region , that`s all . I guess people just got used to very strong El Nino = east based like we saw in 82-83 and 97-98. But the 2000's delivered a further west trend to El Ninos.....More impressive back to Nino 4 along with the much warmer PDO region off the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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