The_Global_Warmer Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 When sub surface warmth reaches the epac and CFS totally busts with Nino 1-2 temps. It will be interesting to see how cfs adjusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 You just said 2 posts ago the guidance has been great , now it disagrees with you and it constitutes a lack of evidence ? I see no issue warming through November , but you are going to have to give up this 1.2 fetish , it`s really getting srhredded here . The trades have reversed or gone essentially calm over the far epac.This is now being vigorous reflected in the subsurface temps which are a 5 day mean. About as long as the trades have changed. The trades come to a stop or reversal with a massive pool of anomalously warm water below the surface. The warm water will move East. The delay for cooling was about 10 days. Warming is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 East based super Nino incoming. All due respect , we have have been reading this from you for the last 6 weeks here . We have disagreed here with you and snowman , yet you 2 keep making the mistake of thinking that all subsurface heat has to reach the surface and that it all must get carried into the 1.2 region . Look at the where the majority of all the heat both at the surface and below are. Most but not all the heat has been west of 100 . The idea of this " exploding " east is wrong . The analysis has been bad , you don`t get points for repeating an idea that is going in the wrong direction . The guidance is against you , the verification has been against you and the structure is now and has been against you . An irrelevant tick up from here in 1.2 would be just that .R 3.4 and 4 are at record levels , while you and snowman have been screaming east , we have been telling you west . The records speak volumes . 97 is dead , we buried it here 2 months ago , you 2 need to let it go. R 1.2 01 OCT 2.8 07OCT2015 2.7 14OCT2015 2.5 21OCT2015 2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 You just said 2 posts ago the guidance has been great , now it disagrees with you and it constitutes a lack of evidence ? I see no issue warming through November , but you are going to have to give up this 1.2 fetish , it`s really getting shredded here . Do you have reading comprehension problems? I said region 3.4, nowhere did I say 1+2, nowhere. You are the one who is relentlessly mentioning 1+2 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Do you have reading comprehension problems? I said region 3.4, nowhere did I say 1+2, nowhere. You are the one who is relentlessly mentioning 1+2 right now Go back and read your PM to me sent on OCT 12 . I will not post it , if you come back here and apologize .( Since you will not be allowed to change your position here this morning as you have been humping east and 1.2 warming ) . Or the board could be the arbiter of my comprehension skills . ? kool ? Waiting ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 Go back and read your PM to me sent on OCT 12 . I will not post it , if you come back here and apologize .( Since you will not be allowed to change your position here this morning as you have been humping east and 1.2 warming ) . Or the board could be the arbiter of my comprehension skills . ? kool ? Waiting ..... Yes, IMO 1+2 will warm again but who cares anymore. We have almost an all time record 3.4 and that is how Ninos are remembered anyway, in 3.4 not 1+2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Yes, IMO 1+2 will warm again but who cares anymore. We have almost an all time record 3.4 and that is how Ninos are remembered anyway, in 3.4 not 1+2 Fine, I will take that as a detente . All I am saying is as some were yelling this would explode east , we were yelling look out basin wide and were talking about R4 record levels from a month ago . So the last fight will be , when do we peak ? The CFS thinks late Nov - Early Dec . That looks reasonable to me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I don't see how some can still argue about it being east based anymore with a straight face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I don't see how some can still argue about it being east based anymore with a straight face. Today's weekly data further illustrates that this is a basin wide event. That Region 1+2 cooled for the third consecutive week increasingly suggests that the secondary peak in that ENSO region may have occurred. The computer guidance also argues that the secondary peak, which has been common in strong El Niño events has occurred. The historical data for strong El Niño events suggests that on a monthly basis, Region 1+2 will probably see a continued slow decline in anomalies through the rest of the fall, even as some week-to-week fluctuations occur. In addition, farther west, one saw Regions 3.4 and 4 grow warmer. The Region 4 SST is currently 29.9°C. That is just below the record 30.0°C figure that has occurred there on a few occasions, most recently during the week centered around June 3, 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 You just said 2 posts ago the guidance has been great , now it disagrees with you and it constitutes a lack of evidence ? I see no issue warming through November , but you are going to have to give up this 1.2 fetish , it`s really getting shredded here . Clearly, the CFS is correct in it's depiction of a warm winter, but wrong in modeling the early peak of R1.2. Don't you know anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Almost looked like the CFS tried to shift this back into an east based event this spring...interesting. Irrelevant in terms of this winter, but just noting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Nino 4 has been setting new records throughout the 2000's. It probably one of the few warming trends that make people happy on this board. CQvd3MqUcAER9x7.png-large.png Was it you who posted that link to the research arguing that east based el ninos were not an endangered species? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Yes, IMO 1+2 will warm again but who cares anymore. We have almost an all time record 3.4 and that is how Ninos are remembered anyway, in 3.4 not 1+2 wrong 1997-98 was more known for a East based not a basin-wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Nino 1+2 is cratering right now. I'd expect on the next update for the week ending October 28th, the number will be below 2.0. A lot of cooling in the eastern regions right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Almost looked like the CFS tried to shift this back into an east based event this spring...interesting. Irrelevant in terms of this winter, but just noting.... It's the only model that shows the Nino dying from west to east. That's probably a reason why it's not really showing a "true" backloaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The recent study came to the conclusion that modokis have been increasing in number relative to the past since 1990. It goes with this very strong event putting the closest to record temps in 4 and 3.4 instead of 1+2 and 3 like 97-98 did. This is the second year of an El Nino that started as a modoki last winter. So this is an interesting full basin-modoki hybrid event. Could you please post that in the sne winter thread? I made mention of it last night in there. TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 We have almost an all time record 3.4 and that is how Ninos are remembered anyway, in 3.4 not 1+2 On the weekly, but in order to challenge 1997-98's trimonthly ONI of +2.3c, we will need > +2.5c weeklies (probably, > +2.7c) to persist for at least 3-4 weeks. It's difficult to approach such record levels of 1997 without east based regions being as warm. The recent significant cooling in region 1+2 is essentially cutting off the proverbial feet of the ENSO event; marginal warming is possible in the central regions. But we're likely going to see the leveling off with peak being attained in November, especially considering the initiation of this +ENSO event occurred relatively early in comparison to the vast majority. I am still leaning toward a peak trimonthly ONI value slightly under +2.0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The recent study came to the conclusion that modokis have been increasing in number relative to the past since 1990. It goes with this very strong event putting the closest to record temps in 4 and 3.4 instead of 1+2 and 3 like 97-98 did. This is the second year of an El Nino that started as a modoki last winter. So this is an interesting full basin-modoki hybrid event. This makes difference between eastern and western regions a little less significant though. We are seeing TNI slope well below 1997 but higher 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Tropical upper level divergence has become less conducive in the second half of October w/ the most negative chi 200hpa anomalies oriented further east. However, this was expected as the influence of the amplified MJO wave has shifted the zone of enhanced divergence. Will need to monitor the behavior over the coming weeks, especially, as that will indicate whether the forcing is "permanently" re-orienting for the winter, or only a transient aberration from the mean pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Expect another period of intensification/warming in November, all the recent WWB activity has generated another strong downwelling kelvin wave. The effects should start being felt by around mid November: https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/657944973602615296 Pretty huge changes in the subsurface. The thermocline is being flattened rather abruptly. Precursor to surface warming. Classic look of a developing East based Nino. Stronger trades West of the dateline. Positive anomalies East. The cooler subsurface versus 1997 will ensure things don't get out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 On the weekly, but in order to challenge 1997-98's trimonthly ONI of +2.3c, we will need > +2.5c weeklies (probably, > +2.7c) to persist for at least 3-4 weeks. It's difficult to approach such record levels of 1997 without east based regions being as warm. The recent significant cooling in region 1+2 is essentially cutting off the proverbial feet of the ENSO event; marginal warming is possible in the central regions. But we're likely going to see the leveling off with peak being attained in November, especially considering the initiation of this +ENSO event occurred relatively early in comparison to the vast majority. I am still leaning toward a peak trimonthly ONI value slightly under +2.0c. Hopefully with the evolution of this thing about a month ahead of average, we can race through the unfavorable phases and not blow all of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The next ONI update for ASO will almost certainly be 1.7 with an outside chance of 1.6 or 1.8...But I'd say 80%+ chance of 1.7..which will put in 2nd behind 97 for ASO tri-monthly...To be honest I think 1.8 is more likely than 1.6 as the adjustment down in September from OISST to ERSST seemed excessive to me when looking at September 2009/2002 which had the same September norm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Thanks for the article, bluewave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 Just eyeballing the latest TAO data, it would appear region 3.4 is up to +2.6C now. The warming in that region hasn't skipped a beat since the spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 1997 was really the outlier post 1990 for the amount of warming in 1+2 relative to 4. El Nin ̃o statistics exhibits variations on decadal timescales. For instance, the properties of El Nin ̃o exhibited frequency and amplitude changes before and after the late 1970s. During the late 1990s and 2000s, on the other hand, El Nin ̃o events show different characteristics in terms of location of maximum anomalous SST compared to the c conventional El Nin ̃o. For instance, a prolonged El Nin ̃o event during the period of 1990–1994, showed that, in the conventional El Nin ̃o region (the far eastern Pacific), the SST anomaly has waxed and waned, while the SST anomaly in the NINO4 region (160u E–150u W, 5u N–5u S) remained positive. Other recent studies also argued that there exists a phenomenon in the tropical Pacific that is distinctly different from the canonical El Nin ̃o this variation of El Nin ̃o has a ‘horseshoe’ spatial pattern, flanked by a colder SST on both sides along the Equator These studies led to various definitions of a new type of El Nin ̃o: the dateline El Nin ̃o, the El Nin ̃o Modoki, the central Pacific El Nin ̃o and the warm pool El Nin ̃. The El Nin ̃o Modoki was named to represent the phenomenon in 2004 that had a maximum SST anomaly in the central tropical Pacific, differing from the con- ventional El Nin ̃o. Although the number of CP-El Nin ̃o events is relatively small, its frequency increased noticeably after 1990. For the period of 1854– 2007, the occurrence ratio of the EP-El Nin ̃o before and after 1990 is 0.19 per year and 0.29 per year, respectively, whereas that of the CP-El Nin ̃o before and after 1990 is 0.01 per year and 0.29 per year, respec- tively. Simply put, this result indicates that anomalous warm SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific (that is, CP-El Nin ̃o) has been observed more frequently during recent decades3. 1997-98 looks really an outlier warming how strong east-based it was going back to 50s at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 June 1983 is actually the highest monthly Nino 1+2 temperature on record surpassing December 1997. The other interesting statistic from the 82-83 El Nino was the SOI was more negative than 97-98. On seasonal SST periods, the 1997-98 still more-east based anomalies from the summer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 On seasonal SST periods, the 1997-98 still more-east based anomalies from the summer: That's due to the 82-83 having a later 1+2 peak in June than 97-98 which occurred in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I posted these maps over in the MA forum. I don't know about you folks, but comparing the 9/30 map (top) to the 10/26 map (bottom), and this raging NINO looks pretty close to peaked and in the process of maturing. Other areas of the PAC look a whole lot better too wrt the PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I posted these maps over in the MA forum. I don't know about you folks, but comparing the 9/30 map (top) to the 10/26 map (bottom), and this raging NINO looks pretty close to peaked and in the process of maturing. Other areas of the PAC look a whole lot better too wrt the PDO. Nino 1+2 has cratered pretty good recently. Just look at the last 7 days even...the cooling is in eastern regions while maybe some slight warming in the far western areas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 I posted these maps over in the MA forum. I don't know about you folks, but comparing the 9/30 map (top) to the 10/26 map (bottom), and this raging NINO looks pretty close to peaked and in the process of maturing. Other areas of the PAC look a whole lot better too wrt the PDO.Which region do you think peaked? 3.4 and 3 are still warming, you mean 1+2 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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