Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[Isotherm]

While it isn't a robust correlation, there is an inverse correlation between the October NAO modality and ensuing DJF modality. The relationship predicts the NAO in approximately 64% of years from 1950-2015. The 500mb height pattern in the NPAC and NATL this month were fairly close to ideal in terms of correlations. Of course, they are some of the innumerable tools in the toolbox, but nonetheless, something to examine.

 

[snowman19]

Expect another period of intensification/warming in November, all the recent WWB activity has generated another strong downwelling kelvin wave. The effects should start being felt by around mid November: https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/657944973602615296

[Isotherm]

No.

My point is that the forcing is already west, so why does it matter when el nino collapses??

No one has answered yet...is it because it needs to weaken in order to see the usual retrogression of the pattern that is typical of el nino seasons?

 

 

It doesn't matter that much. There isn't robust evidence supporting the assertion that the timing of ENSO peak significantly affects the outcome of winter. A year like 1957-58 for example, peaked in the middle of winter at 1.7C trimonthly, yet the middle to latter part of the season was quite cold and stormy in the East. This is because the orientation of the CHI 200hpa anomalies in the Pacific were conducive even though the SST's continued to increase. Strong El Nino years like 1991, 1997, 1982, etc., were quite warm in mid winter, not because of the ENSO peak timing, but because of poor forcing. There's likely a stronger correlation b/t ENSO peak timing and sensible weather in other parts of the country to our west, but on the East Coast, ENSO timing is not the primary impetus for the pattern.

[snowman19]

It doesn't matter that much. There isn't robust evidence supporting the assertion that the timing of ENSO peak significantly affects the outcome of winter. A year like 1957-58 for example, peaked in the middle of winter at 1.7C trimonthly, yet the middle to latter part of the season was quite cold and stormy in the East. This is because the orientation of the CHI 200hpa anomalies in the Pacific were conducive even though the SST's continued to increase. Strong El Nino years like 1991, 1997, 1982, etc., were quite warm in mid winter, not because of the ENSO peak timing, but because of poor forcing. There's likely a stronger correlation b/t ENSO peak timing and sensible weather in other parts of the country to our west, but on the East Coast, ENSO timing is not the primary impetus for the pattern.

Exactly, 1997 peaked the last week of November, a somewhat "early" peak because December is the normal peak time....

[The_Global_Warmer]

Expect another period of intensification/warming in November, all the recent WWB activity has generated another strong downwelling kelvin wave. The effects should start being felt by around mid November: https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/657944973602615296

OISST daily ssta shows a big time drop in ssta near SA.

While bigger warming in enso 3.

This might not end up tilted East inspire of the favorable subsurface and weak trades.

But there can also be big ups and downs between wwbs and Kelvin waves when enso 1-2 is on the edge of the big subsurface anomalies.

So we will see.

I don't care if we have a East based nino or not.

But the trades and subsurface argue for it.

Or at least something real close.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The two most important factors are leaning on major warming taking place from SA to 150W going into November.

If it doesn't happen. It doesn't.

But these graphics are pretty clear cut.

[snowman19]

The two most important factors are leaning on major warming taking place from SA to 150W going into November.

If it doesn't happen. It doesn't.

But these graphics are pretty clear cut.

Agreed. The current data and developing kelvin wave strongly support another period of major warming and strengthening come November. We shall see...

[JoMo]

Has the super massive unprecedented insane crazy wild huge super east based El Nino warming started yet, Friv? 

[dan123]

Snowman19 and friv should hold hands

[The_Global_Warmer]

Agreed. The current data and developing kelvin wave strongly support another period of major warming and strengthening come November. We shall see...

It could be that +7 to +9C sub surface anomalies around 100W like in 1997 are required to get Nino 1-2 into super status.

But we know the sub surface warm pool is still moving East from the previous Kelvin wave.

So it's likely only a matter of time.

But there can always be unforseen factors involved.

Will the current weak trades be enough to beat the upwelling around 100W down??

Historical precident says yes.

The stronger West Pac trades are a classic signature of the positive anomalies staying East of the date line

[40/70 Benchmark]

It doesn't matter that much. There isn't robust evidence supporting the assertion that the timing of ENSO peak significantly affects the outcome of winter. A year like 1957-58 for example, peaked in the middle of winter at 1.7C trimonthly, yet the middle to latter part of the season was quite cold and stormy in the East. This is because the orientation of the CHI 200hpa anomalies in the Pacific were conducive even though the SST's continued to increase. Strong El Nino years like 1991, 1997, 1982, etc., were quite warm in mid winter, not because of the ENSO peak timing, but because of poor forcing. There's likely a stronger correlation b/t ENSO peak timing and sensible weather in other parts of the country to our west, but on the East Coast, ENSO timing is not the primary impetus for the pattern.

This is exactly what I was getting at.

 

The R1.2 Circle Jerk is refreshing, though....in a said nobody ever kinda way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Some recent studies came to the conclusion that east based El Ninos will continue

to be as rare as they have been recently . So you may be trying to push a boulder up hill 

if are rooting for one. This one developed from a modoki last winter so Nino 4 continues

near record levels with steady D/L forcing and convection for much of 2015.

 

This paper came out before the 09-10  and 14-15 modoki winters. But an increase in CP

SST's and Modokis was noted even before 2007.

 

http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/met/Faculty/jff/2009_01%20El%20Nin˜o%20in%20a%20changing%20climate.pdf

Someone talk snowman and afro warmer off the ledge.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Some recent studies came to the conclusion that east based El Ninos will continue

to be as rare as they have been recently . So you may be trying to push a boulder up hill

if are rooting for one. This one developed from a modoki last winter so Nino 4 continues

near record levels with steady D/L forcing and convection for much of 2015.

This paper came out before the 09-10 and 14-15 modoki winters. But an increase in CP

SST's and Modokis was noted even before 2007.

http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/met/Faculty/jff/2009_01%20El%20Nin˜o%20in%20a%20changing%20climate.pdf

It's not a matter of rooting for it.

It's a matter of speculation and prediction.

The trades are expected to reverse along the SA coast.

[bluewave]

It's not a matter of rooting for it.

It's a matter of speculation and prediction.

The trades are expected to reverse along the SA coast.

 

It's seems like rooting to many here when the consensus of models never showed an east based event.

 

The models see the trade wind behavior and yet are not forecasting this to become east based.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/

[mitchnick]

It's not a matter of rooting for it.

It's a matter of speculation and prediction.

The trades are expected to reverse along the SA coast.

All those links tell me that the greatest warming is in the past.

[PB GFI]

It's not a matter of rooting for it.

It's a matter of needing to urinate quite frequently off the coast of Peru.

The east based dream died in July. When you look at all the Regional verified weeklies you saw how this drifted west.

We have seen the 1.2 region cool twice already. What lost is most of the subsurface warmth is from 100 on west and then when you look deeper the warmer water that kept up welling this summer was focused from 120 west.

Not all subsurface anomalies surface and the models seeing the trades are/have not been impressed.

I define this as a great event. I have said this before focusing on 1.2 misses the PAC torch on balance.

No analog here. This is a basin wide , DL record level , off the Baja ,EP rout .

Forget 97. It's not 97 , on balance it's bigger . But guess what your winter will be better.... go figure.

[OSUmetstud]

It could be that +7 to +9C sub surface anomalies around 100W like in 1997 are required to get Nino 1-2 into super status.

But we know the sub surface warm pool is still moving East from the previous Kelvin wave.

So it's likely only a matter of time.

But there can always be unforseen factors involved.

Will the current weak trades be enough to beat the upwelling around 100W down??

Historical precident says yes.

The stronger West Pac trades are a classic signature of the positive anomalies staying East of the date line

The thermocline over the epac decreased in depth in the last two weeks. While there was a push east due to the strong wwb near the dateline a few weeks ago it seems to have stopped if not reversed.

[snowman19]

The east based dream died in July. When you look at all the Regional verified weeklies you saw how this drifted west.

We have seen the 1.2 region cool twice already. What lost is most of the subsurface warmth is from 100 on west and then when you look deeper the warmer water that kept up welling this summer was focused from 120 west.

Not all subsurface anomalies surface and the models seeing the trades are/have not been impressed.

I define this as a great event. I have said this before focusing on 1.2 misses the PAC torch on balance.

No analog here. This is a basin wide , DL record level , off the Baja ,EP rout .

Forget 97. It's not 97 , on balance it's bigger . But guess what your winter will be better.... go figure.

It doesn't matter what 1+2 does at this point, we have a record event in 3.4, that is likely to tie or eclipse the 1997 peak imo

[40/70 Benchmark]

It doesn't matter, but I still doubt this catches '97.

[Yanksfan]

While the forcing looks to be in a good position come winter, I'll be more at ease as long this monster Nino peaks once December rolls around.

[bluewave]

Notice how the models like the UKMET and Euro keep the Aleutian Low north

of Hawaii for the winter just like October so far. The low just pulls a little

more north and the downstream ridge remains west of Hudson Bay.

This will allow the classic Nino trough to carve out over the MA and SE US

along the raging STJ track.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

It doesn't matter, but I still doubt this catches '97.

I agree. The R heat anomalies in 97 along the equator eclipse 15.

I was referring to the entire PAC in total .

I didn't get the east based ideas from mid summer onward , but I just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

[PB GFI]

Notice how the models like the UKMET and Euro keep the Aleutian Low north

of Hawaii for the winter just like October so far. The low just pulls a little

more north and the downstream ridge remains west of Hudson Bay.

This will allow the classic Nino trough to carve out over the MA and SE US

along the raging STJ track.

 

500.gif

 

2cat_20151001_z500_months35_global_deter_public.png

All the seasonals look like OCT to date . All but one .

[The_Global_Warmer]

The thermocline over the epac decreased in depth in the last two weeks. While there was a push east due to the strong wwb near the dateline a few weeks ago it seems to have stopped if not reversed.

The recent weakening trades show a major impact underway.

With a surge of warmth likely exploding Eastward.

The 5 day mean shows the current wind Pattern quite well.

The deep warm pool is losing depth around the dateline.

While the thermocline is flattening to the East again.

I'd think vigorous warming will take place over the epac by the end of the month.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a huge jump the first week of November.

[snowman19]

The recent weakening trades show a major impact underway.

With a surge of warmth likely exploding Eastward.

The 5 day mean shows the current wind Pattern quite well.

The deep warm pool is losing depth around the dateline.

While the thermocline is flattening to the East again.

I'd think vigorous warming will take place over the epac by the end of the month.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a huge jump the first week of November.

Given we are now less than a week away from November and more strengthening to come, a December peak is looking extremely likely now. Very good call by the models months ago with the December peak predictions

[bluewave]

The big story this week is that we just tied the warmest Nino 4 reading on record for October

set in 2009. The Nino 3.4 region is just behind the October record set in 1997. Nino 1+2

dropped a bit as the warmest waters shifted west this week.

 

14OCT2015  2.5 2.6  2.4  1.1
21OCT2015  2.2 2.6  2.5  1.3

 

Nino 4 record weekly for October..... .1.3...2015&2009

Nino 3.4 record weekly for October....2.6 ..1997

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[PB GFI]

The new CFS just doesn`t see anymore meaningful 1.2 warming  . However it does see the central regions warming over the next few weeks before this peaks in November .

 

The models continue to show the basin wide event . 

 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

The big story this week is that we just tied the warmest Nino 4 reading on record for October

set in 2009. The Nino 3.4 region is just behind the October record set in 1997. Nino 1+2

dropped a bit as the warmest waters shifted west this week.

 

14OCT2015  2.5 2.6  2.4  1.1

21OCT2015  2.2 2.6  2.5  1.3

 

Nino 4 record weekly for October..... .1.3...2015&2009

Nino 3.4 record weekly for October....2.6 ..1997

 

BOOM . It`s not like we haven`t been yelling to focus on the  central basin and R4 for the last  2 months .

I did not see this is a hard forecast 

[snowman19]

The new CFS just doesn`t see anymore meaningful 1.2 warming . However it does see the central regions warming over the next few weeks before this peaks in November .

The models continue to show the basin wide event .

Very, very unlikely region 3.4 peaks before December. There is still zero evidence of the subsurface cold pool pushing east yet, nor is there evidence of the strengthening stopping anytime soon

[PB GFI]

Very, very unlikely region 3.4 peaks before December. There is still zero evidence of the subsurface cold pool pushing east yet, nor is there evidence of the strengthening stopping anytime soon

 

You just said 2 posts ago the guidance has been great , now it disagrees with you and it constitutes a lack of evidence ? 

I see no issue warming through November , but you are going to have to give up this 1.2 fetish , it`s really getting shredded here .