PB GFI Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 I don`t think anyone is comparing the NINO basin heat to 09. 15 is as different to 09 just like 15 is different from 97. People are looking at more than just the verified basin readings or sub surface heat anomalies . 09 is brought up because of it`s forcing. It is important , because of what is going on it the EP region . There is a massive amount of warm water there , all the guidance shows you a GOA vortex setting up this winter and it`s position looks to depend on where the best forcing occurs . The CFS is forcing closer to 160 , which would push the NEG further east and gum up the works sending the height field further east in Canada and that would pinch off the N jet . Other guidance that forces near the D/L like in 09 pulls that trough SW of the Aleutians and that pulls the height field west of HB . That is your 500mb winter scenario. 09 does not compare to this monster , but it`s not all about the equatorial waters , what and where it produces will matter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 No one is debating the that this el nino differs from that of 2010, nor that dateline forcing is optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Paul...we agree that west near the D/L is best. W.png E.png Yeh , I think he thought we were comparing the ENSO . We only compared the similar forcing in another + ENSO year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Yeah, I guess people aren't used to seeing forcing so far west with such a strong El Nino. But this may be the first event this strong that grew out of a weak modoki the previous winter and spring. Wow.....I had never though of that. I know last year technically wasn't a nino, but same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 The forcing was west more 09-10 (centered around dateline) than what is progged for this year. That was you get with SST gradient and latent heat. That is more ideal for an Aleutian trough. We also had E QBO + solar min support more high-latitude blocking. Especially for the Atlantic side: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 The forcing was west more 09-10 (centered around dateline) than what is progged for this year. That was you get with SST gradient and latent heat. That is more ideal for an Aleutian trough. We also had E QBO + solar min support more high-latitude blocking. Especially for the Atlantic side: We are essentially in uncharted territory right now in regards to analogs for this particular winter. For these global sea surface temperatures and anomalies, the way things have progressed in the past two years, solar conditions, snow cover, etc, there are no true analogs or years which help us along in terms of guidance. In reagrds to winter forecasting, this year will present a tremendous challenge and skills test for anyone who is involved with seasonal forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Yeah, I guess people aren't used to seeing forcing so far west with such a strong El Nino. But this may be the first event this strong that grew out of a weak modoki the previous winter and spring. I'm not sure what kind of el ninos were modoki before 1950 but I liked analogs that were second year ninos...1877-78, 1888-89,1896-97, 1914-15, 1930-31 and 1940-41...it looks like the year before was a weak event like last year... ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 The CFS is one of the only models with the forcing forecast to be that far east. Most others are further west like 57-58, 86-87, and 09-10. NMME_ensemble_prate_season2.png caprec_anom.2.gif Y201510.D0800_gl0.png The CFS sets up at 160 , most of the guidance forces at the D/L . I am not saying it has to be wrong , but if I blended all the guidance it W of the CFS . Even the CFS forcing is more in line with the BASIN type forcing . Below , compliments of OHweather , who has a great piece , it`s a great read . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Theoretically, why does it even matter how quickly the el nino peaks if the forcing is closer to the date line?? Seems to me that the latter half of the season will be fine, but the first half is NAO dependent, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Theoretically, why does it even matter how quickly the el nino peaks if the forcing is closer to the date line?? Seems to me that the latter half of the season will be fine, but the first half is NAO dependent, regardless. For the moisture to stream up here and the baroclinic zone to line up the coast. The forcing needs to be further west. Look at the +forcing values that PB posted for Modoki flowing through the Gulf and the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 For the moisture to stream up here and the baroclinic zone to line up the coast. The forcing needs to be further west. Look at the +forcing values that PB posted for Modoki flowing through the Gulf and the SE US.This is not a modoki El Niño, I don't know why you continue to insist that it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 This is not a modoki El Niño, I don't know why you continue to insist that it isI never did. I said that it's necessary to have forcing further west. I was giving an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 This Nino is about to demolish historical precedent. This is about to be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 For the moisture to stream up here and the baroclinic zone to line up the coast. The forcing needs to be further west. Look at the +forcing values that PB posted for Modoki flowing through the Gulf and the SE US.No.My point is that the forcing is already west, so why does it matter when el nino collapses?? No one has answered yet...is it because it needs to weaken in order to see the usual retrogression of the pattern that is typical of el nino seasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 No. My point is that the forcing is already west, so why does it matter when el nino collapses?? No one has answered yet...is it because it needs to weaken in order to see the usual retrogression of the pattern that is typical of el nino seasons? It depends on how it collapses. West to East may ruin the forcing position. East to West will lock it around the D/L. Which will promote more Aleutian Troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 We'll see if this is the westward shift that the models have been hinting at. The recent warming is focused in 3.4 and 4 rather than 1+2 and 3. pac_oisst_anom_current.png wk1.wk2_20151021.Tsfc.jpg wk3.wk4_20151021.Tsfc.jpg Some impressive >+3.3 anomalies showing up that hadn't been there before. This is certainly the strongest the Nino has been so far. Doubt we'll beat 1997's record, but somewhere between 2.5 and 2.6 is impressive enough... needless to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 We Will finally see the explosion over the epac. The Nino will expand in latitude and gain that classic East based look. Nino 4 might Cool in the the interim. That's pretty impressive for the SH side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 We Will finally see the explosion over the epac. The Nino will expand in latitude and gain that classic East based look. Nino 4 might Cool in the the interim. That's pretty impressive for the SH side. Dude why are so obsessed with this nino becoming east based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The ship has sailed. it is not east-based. I'd like to see you become reality based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The ship has sailed. it is not east-based. I'd like to see you become reality based. Yeah there seem to be a few still stuck in the thought of this being east based and its almost like its being pushed as an agenda. There should be a feature here where you can like a post.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 We'll see if this is the westward shift that the models have been hinting at. The recent warming is focused in 3.4 and 4 rather than 1+2 and 3. pac_oisst_anom_current.png wk1.wk2_20151021.Tsfc.jpg wk3.wk4_20151021.Tsfc.jpg Talk about a ring of fire. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The ship has sailed. it is not east-based. I'd like to see you become reality based. Haha he's going down with the ship apparently. Gotta respect that in a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 It's not a modoki, either...don't get me wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Haha he's going down with the ship apparently. Gotta respect that in a way.I don't respect the tactic of refusing to adjust and make corrections.But to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I don't respect the tactic of refusing to adjust and make corrections. But to each their own. I meant it in tongue-and-cheek. Refusing to look at the past and current trends like they mean nothing is naive. He's right that there's probably gonna be another spike in Nino 1+2 later... but wrong about the east-based part. Just like every other spike so far... it's going to be met with an almost immediate move west. I'm thinking that'll be later in December. It's not a modoki, either...don't get me wrong... Looks like Modoki forcing though... and that's what matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I meant it in tongue-and-cheek. Refusing to look at the past and current trends like they mean nothing is naive. He's right that there's probably gonna be another spike in Nino 1+2 later... but wrong about the east-based part. Just like every other spike so far... it's going to be met with an almost immediate move west. I'm thinking that'll be later in December. Looks like Modoki forcing though... and that's what matters Yup, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 As you know, the forcing is not static. Especially with MJO/convection. The roundy forecast do have forcing returning near the dateline by 2 weeks. We'll see if it happens: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 Haha he's going down with the ship apparently. Gotta respect that in a way.He's right, 1+2 is going to warm again based on what is going on but does it really matter at this point? It is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 He's right, 1+2 is going to warm again based on what is going on but does it really matter at this point? It is what it is Exactly. No one is arguing that 1+2 will not warm again, but it doesn't matter. Basin-wide. Forcing is not static, no, but neither are other indices, yet we often refer to them in the mean aggregate for a given season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.