The_Global_Warmer Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Damn. Different worlds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Looking at Ryan`s map the greatest heat on balance has expanded between 100 and 140 over the last 6 weeks .That looks to be confirmed on the observed 7 days SST average as well as on the weekly verification .08JUL2015 25.2 3.3 27.9 2.1 28.8 1.5 29.9 1.1 15JUL2015 24.6 2.9 27.9 2.3 28.9 1.7 29.8 1.0 22JUL2015 23.7 2.3 27.6 2.1 28.8 1.6 29.8 1.029JUL2015 23.9 2.7 27.4 2.1 28.8 1.7 29.7 1.005AUG2015 23.6 2.6 27.6 2.3 28.9 1.9 29.6 0.912AUG2015 22.8 2.0 27.3 2.2 28.9 2.0 29.6 0.9 19AUG2015 22.4 1.7 27.2 2.2 28.9 2.1 29.7 1.126AUG2015 22.6 2.0 27.3 2.3 29.0 2.2 29.7 1.102SEP2015 22.7 2.2 27.3 2.4 28.9 2.1 29.7 1.009SEP2015 22.5 2.0 27.4 2.6 29.0 2.3 29.7 1.016SEP2015 23.0 2.6 27.6 2.7 29.0 2.3 29.8 1.123SEP2015 23.2 2.7 27.5 2.6 29.0 2.3 29.8 1.130SEP2015 23.4 2.8 27.6 2.8 29.1 2.4 29.7 1.107OCT2015 23.4 2.7 27.7 2.8 29.1 2.4 29.7 1.014OCT2015 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.1Every tick up in the 1.2 R has been met with a decline . While R 3 and 3.4 never stopped climbing . The heat will not hold in the east , so if one expects a tick up in 1.2 realize it may be like throwing a tic tac in a whales mouth . Even when looks at the very bottom ( OCT 20 ) , you can see the expansion west not east Just look at the last few frames OCT 5 - 15 and you can see there is a westward component here . When you look at the basin on balance, most if not all the sub surface heat at different levels are and have been west of 100 . So as this heat surfaces is had spread out . Again not all the subsurface heat reaches the surface but what has since July focused on 3 and 3.4 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 The new dailies have region 3.4 up to +2.59C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Not sure what the experts do.....by experts, do you mean anyone who goes cold and snowy? September 1957 was 1.1 degrees colder in region 3.4 than this September......that's kind of a lot..... No, the dataset that is universally accepted for ENSO anomalies. You were questioning the viability of the ENSO anomalies....well, if you have a better means by which to derive them, get a boat, a thermo., and some scuba gear... All kidding aside, I understand that the ssts have warmed since 1958, but we are measuring "anomalies", so as the mean ssts rise, so do the anomalies. Perhaps I misunderstood what you were saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 When do you guys this this thing really starts to fade? I originally went December or January.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 When do you guys this this thing really starts to fade? I originally went December or January.... December peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 December peak Hopefully sooner. That first call was made over the summer, so not too bad. Def. not January, agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 In terms of sensible understanding of all the new recent data, what is all this hinting or suggesting in terms of winter for the east? If I understand it correctly, instead of showing a warmer winter, we're now starting to see signs of colder? Been absent and haven't been able to catch up so my apologizes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Hopefully sooner. That first call was made over the summer, so not too bad. Def. not January, agree. I don't like how recent runs of the cfs2 seems to be pushing the 3.4 peak back some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I don't like how recent runs of the cfs2 seems to be pushing the 3.4 peak back some. I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 I know.Just looked at that yea, now the CFS is starting to hint at a January peak. Region 3.4 is already sitting at over +2.5C, so we are only .3 away from the max weekly peak of +2.8C we saw at the end of November, 1997. If the CFS is correct, that would mean at least over 2 more full months of warming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Just looked at that yea, now the CFS is starting to hint at a January peak. Region 3.4 is already sitting at over +2.5C, so we are only .3 away from the max weekly peak of +2.8C we saw at the end of November, 1997. If the CFS is correct, that would mean at least over 2 more full months of warming.... How has it handled this event thus far relative to other guidance? I haven't been following closely enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 FWIW, the CFS is a pretty reactionary model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 FWIW, the CFS is a pretty reactionary model. Yea, I'll defer on the viability of any one climo model, as I am not well versed in the skill of those, aside from the EURO and JMA.....I jus know that the CFS has been on it's own much of this fall in other regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 FWIW, the CFS is a pretty reactionary model. FWIW, this is a pretty over-reactionary group lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 FWIW, this is a pretty over-reactionary group lol I just want to make sure I consider all the info...as badly as I want a huge winter, I would like to remain objective, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 No, the dataset that is universally accepted for ENSO anomalies. You were questioning the viability of the ENSO anomalies....well, if you have a better means by which to derive them, get a boat, a thermo., and some scuba gear... All kidding aside, I understand that the ssts have warmed since 1958, but we are measuring "anomalies", so as the mean ssts rise, so do the anomalies. Perhaps I misunderstood what you were saying... I don't think there is any universally accepted dataset in a scientific sense....Just like with Mantua and PDO....we use certain sets to simplify things so when discussing these things we're comparing apples to apples....Climate adjusted norms for Nino are a relatively new thing....I don't think CPC was using them until fairly recently....So I am not saying you or anyone else is wrong, but I think it is a legitimate question as to whether these adjustments make sense....30 year norms for temps/snow are universally accepted, but I've been above normal in summer for 11 of the last 12 years and the one below normal summer was -0.2....Not sure how relevant the 80s are when I have a low of 77 every night......I don't want to overdo the importance of Nino, but at the same time, adjusted or not, I don't see how this event can be compared to any high end moderate event.....But I agree there are compelling reasons why this won't be another 97-98... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 FWIW, this is a pretty over-reactionary group lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I don't think there is any universally accepted dataset in a scientific sense....Just like with Mantua and PDO....we use certain sets to simplify things so when discussing these things we're comparing apples to apples....Climate adjusted norms for Nino are a relatively new thing....I don't think CPC was using them until fairly recently....So I am not saying you or anyone else is wrong, but I think it is a legitimate question as to whether these adjustments make sense....30 year norms for temps/snow are universally accepted, but I've been above normal in summer for 11 of the last 12 years and the one below normal summer was -0.2....Not sure how relevant the 80s are when I have a low of 77 every night......I don't want to overdo the importance of Nino, but at the same time, adjusted or not, I don't see how this event can be compared to any high end moderate event.....But I agree there are compelling reasons why this won't be another 97-98... I hear you. I am no ENSO expert, believe me....I just go off of what everyone tells me to But I agree, the climate change aspect does present a conundrum of sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Yep..the CFS really struggles in the longer range as was the case with the October forecast. Forecast cfs_anom_z500_noram_201510_4.png Verification through the 19th 15.gif I'm not saying to lend it much credence, but I also do not want to disregard it soley based upon an assumed persistence of it's inferior performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Yep..the CFS really struggles in the longer range as was the case with the October forecast. Forecast cfs_anom_z500_noram_201510_4.png Verification through the 19th 15.gif The funny thing is that even though it has botched the 500 mb anomalies, the 2m temp forecast might not turn out nearly as bad as a whole when looking at the runs at the end of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Yep..the CFS really struggles in the longer range as was the case with the October forecast. Forecast cfs_anom_z500_noram_201510_4.png Verification through the 19th 15.gif That is a CFS run from mid September, once you got closer to October the CFS actually shifted the ridge pretty close to where it has been, and as Hoosier noted the temperature plots are actually looking pretty spot on. The CFS is actually not bad if used within 10 days of the beginning of the month in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 That is a CFS run from mid September, once you got closer to October the CFS actually shifted the ridge pretty close to where it has been, and as Hoosier noted the temperature plots are actually looking pretty spot on. The CFS is actually not bad if used within 10 days of the beginning of the month in question. Good catch Stebo. I thought the CFS 500 mb map that was posted was from the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 That is a CFS run from mid September, once you got closer to October the CFS actually shifted the ridge pretty close to where it has been, and as Hoosier noted the temperature plots are actually looking pretty spot on. The CFS is actually not bad if used within 10 days of the beginning of the month in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 That's exactly my point. The CFS can only reliably used very close to the starting point of the next month. Other models like the ECMWF, JMA, and JAMSTEC can be used at longer ranges for seasonal forecasts. So people shouldn't worry about what the CFS is showing seasonally or from most of the previous month since its outside the effective range of the model. Am I seeing this correctly created on OCT 10 for the month ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 you know everyone must be twiddling their thumbs waiting for the end of October when the detailed analysis of the CFS2 recent performance begins although I've basically said in the MA forum in recent years the same thing Stebo said about the CFS2 performance being OK with forecast periods w/in 10 days, it does not seem to have done particularly great the last few months as a whole from what I recall seeing.....or maybe I'm just disgusted with its insistence on such a warm winter, idk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 That is a CFS run from mid September, once you got closer to October the CFS actually shifted the ridge pretty close to where it has been, and as Hoosier noted the temperature plots are actually looking pretty spot on. The CFS is actually not bad if used within 10 days of the beginning of the month in question. Of course its been wrong before. It's not a perfect model. The point is that it's not as awful as some claim **with regard to the end-of-the-month forecast for the upcoming month**. I've been paying attention to it for almost a year now, and it's pretty accurate with forecasting the general pattern toward the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 The difference between 09/10 and 15/16 is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 The difference between 09/10 and 15/16 is huge. Region 3.4 is now over +2.5C, as far as ENSO, the 09-10 El Niño isn't even close to being in the ballpark with this one, it's like 10 miles down the road... https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/657016699896532994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 2009-10 DJF Nino was Modoki with a cooler NPAC. Tropical forcing west or near the dateline. Also had a E QBO and solar min supporting -AO/NAO/EPO much of that winter. This nino doesn't compare too much to what is happening so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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