Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[Deck Pic]

2007 was even west of the dateline by a bit at times. I do think a lot of the northeast kind of got shafted though in terms of snowfall from about 1/20 to the end of February. That pattern probably could have produced better. But the start of that winter was literally a top 3 most anemic/warm of all time. No sugarcoating that.

 

yes...2007 was west of dateline in the means...I'm not too worried about vortex of death parking itself in the Beaufort sea...PDO/ENSO too strong and I'll throw a bone to Judah too, even though he now considers EPO and AO to be the same index

[ORH_wxman]

yes...2007 was west of dateline in the means...I'm not too worried about vortex of death parking itself in the Beaufort sea...PDO/ENSO too strong and I'll throw a bone to Judah too, even though he now considers EPO and AO to be the same index

 

 

 

 

Yeah what killed 2007..esp first half was that horrific vortex from S Beuafort to Bering Sea and W AK. Pretty much any absolutely horrible winter in terms of a warmth/snowless combo seems to have that...maybe a few exceptions, I think '90-'91 was one of them, but not totally sure.

[PB GFI]

 

 

 

Yeah what killed 2007..esp first half was that horrific vortex from S Beuafort to Bering Sea and W AK. Pretty much any absolutely horrible winter in terms of a warmth/snowless combo seems to have that...maybe a few exceptions, I think '90-'91 was one of them, but not totally sure.

 

 

There is nothing but HP forecast there this time . This time the vortex is pulled well S of Aleutians an on into the EP.

[The_Global_Warmer]

not as strong as the last, and that didn't kill us

I'm guessing that's conjecture about how it didn't change the orientation of the Nino.

Yet it has set in motion a massive change in the depth and Eastward progression of the warm pool.

That is a tremendous change.

The current positive wind anomalies are setting up directly over the Eastern half of the warm blob.

This water is already in motion to continue to move Eastward.

The trades relaxing/stopping or even weakly reversing is like a dam opening to allow water through versus the wind actually doing the heavy lifting itself.

This wind regime doesn't need to be historically anomalous to make this happen.

Will someone post the Tao/triton for 2009 at this exact time?

[Deck Pic]

Sometimes a negative to neutral PDO can negate a favorable forcing profile during 

an El Nino. 72-73 is also a classic case of that.

 

72-73 didn't look like a nino..either did 1902-03 if you wanna go back that far..that was probably a reasonably strong event..not entirely sure why...I don't think we need to worry too much about either scenario

 

 

 

[snowman19]

I'm guessing that's conjecture about how it didn't change the orientation of the Nino.

Yet it has set in motion a massive change in the depth and Eastward progression of the warm pool.

That is a tremendous change.

The current positive wind anomalies are setting up directly over the Eastern half of the warm blob.

This water is already in motion to continue to move Eastward.

The trades relaxing/stopping or even weakly reversing is like a dam opening to allow water through versus the wind actually doing the heavy lifting itself.

This wind regime doesn't need to be historically anomalous to make this happen.

Will someone post the Tao/triton for 2009 at this exact time?

This is why I said this morning not to start dancing in the streets and celebrating that Nino 1+2 and 3 and even 3.4 haven't warmed significantly, YET. If you look at what is happening right now in real time and what is projected, the writing is on the wall, there is going to be another round of significant warming upcoming

[The_Global_Warmer]

Enso1-2 cooled because wind anomalies along the equator to the SE of it for a period became anomolously stronger with the trades.

And we saw very little cooling.

Maybe because subsurface upwelling was above normal. It surely takes time.

However while this took place the massive WWB further West has sent the huge warm pool East and at more depth.

Now the trades are going to be weaker than normal.

For those who don't know trade anomalies on the 0-10S area overthe epac do not vary much relative to further West.

I don't have a dog in this fight.

I don't care how this Nino takes shape

I'm here to discuss a potentially historically anomolous weather/climate event.

And the main forum thread is dead.

[The_Global_Warmer]

And in terms of enso 3-4 being so warm.

The 82, 97, and 15 ninos are all compared to the same climo.

I have no idea how to deduce how much potential warming has taken place.

But upper ocean ohc in general has risen significantly.

Also the ability for the near surface.

Like the top 10MM of the ocean is less efficient at shedding infared than before.

However from what I understand consistent convection pretty much negates satelitte Sst scans.

So buoys certainly wouldn't pick up on it.

Or there could just be a tiny 0.1-0.2C background warming or not.

If so it might cause a very small increase in the size of Enso events at the surface

[PB GFI]

This is why I said this morning not to start dancing in the streets and celebrating that Nino 1+2 and 3 and even 3.4 haven't warmed significantly, YET. If you look at what is happening right now in real time and what is projected, the writing is on the wall, there is going to be another round of significant warming upcoming

I think you misunderstand some of us. This is a great basin wide event.

I only take umbrage with the term east based. When all the regions are this warm it's the totality from 100 west to the dateline that I think is the story.

Then look at all that heat off the BAJA and in the EP region.

There is no analog to this. I only push back against looking at one area from 80 to 100 when the entire PAC is a blaze.

Then as far as sensible weather goes besides the equatorial basin being so warm I am looking at the forcing and trying to figure where the GOA vortex could set up because it all matters IMO

We all see the NINO, but too often you are focused on an increase in one region and you are missing the entire ocean.

[snowman19]

I think you misunderstand some of us. This is a great basin wide event.

I only take umbrage with the term east based. When all the regions are this warm it's the totality from 100 west to the dateline that I think is the story.

Then look at all that heat off the BAJA and in the EP region.

There is no analog to this. I only push back against looking at one area from 80 to 100 when the entire PAC is a blaze.

Then as far as sensible weather goes besides the equatorial basin being so warm I am looking at the forcing and trying to figure where the GOA vortex could set up because it all matters IMO

We all see the NINO, but too often you are focused on an increase in one region and you are missing the entire ocean.

I'm agreeing with you, this is a classic canonical el nino, textbook

[PB GFI]

This is October is on track to be the 5th mod/stg El Nino with a +PNA/-EPO ridge.

With the El Nino October to winter carryover, this would match the consensus

of seasonal models showing the stronger ridge west of Hudson Bay for DJFM.

 

Strong to moderate El Nino Octobers since 1950

 

Year...PNA....EPO...

 

1957..POS....NEG...

1963..POS....POS...

1965..POS....POS...

1972..NEG...NEG...

1982..NEG...POS

1986..POS...NEG

1987..POS...NEG

1991..NEG...NEG

1997..NEG...POS

2002..NEG...NEG

2009..POS...NEG

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

http://www.wxmidwest.com/epo/newepo.txt

 

500.gif

 

 

You know that was the 1st thing that caught my eye. 

[PB GFI]

I like how the 5 day ensemble means carry this pattern for much of the remaining part of the month.

 

If the - EPO/+PNA looks like that with shorter wavelengths and the ridge really is that far west with a trough in the SE.

Then anything that comes along riding a strong STJ up the east coast over all that warm water will at least have some cold air to 

work with .

HP will find it`s way through the lakes and cold air will sink to the base of the trough .

Where the BN 2m temps and AN precip intersect could make for a pretty good winter . 

[PB GFI]

I`m sorry I just looked at this again , this is a GREAT map considering the strength of this ENSO event .

This is the Euro Seasonal and the NMME  Jan.

I don`t think you could ask for a better set up with that PAC Look at that - EPO+PNA and a STJ .

 

Dynamite , if the correlation verifies  this year .  

 

[uncle W]

the JMA number just came in at 24...This ties 1997 at this time...

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

[bluewave]

I`m sorry I just looked at this again , this is a GREAT map considering the strength of this ENSO event .

This is the Euro Seasonal and the NMME  Jan.

I don`t think you could ask for a better set up with that PAC Look at that - EPO+PNA and a STJ .

 

Dynamite , if the correlation verifies  this year .  

 

 

The trough and ridge locations match up with the forecast longitudes for DJFM. The anomaly centers stay

on longitude for the winter while gaining latitude.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

So this is where we are.

During the last trade reversal/weakening East of the dateline. Basically over Enso 3.

Was at the end of September. We can see that for the most part the ssts

have stayed relatively steady over ENSO 3 thanks to the massive westerly wind burst near the Date Line and the couple small breaks in the trades over into Enso 3.

We have a high end strong to near super Nino

The current weakening of the trades over Enso 3 is not only happening further East. But the subsurface conditions have changed since the last one.

So this pretty much ensures the current Kelvin wave making its way across Enso 3 now will reach SA.

Also when the last enso 3 trade weakening took place the subsurface warm pool was stagnant.

Clearly the massive WWB not only kicked it in the ass it was enough to start a reinforcing warm pool on the backend.

So now this WWB over Enso 3 is coming into the game with a loaded gun.

Like Tarasenko and Ovechkin got the goalie flopped down out of his crease with the puck 2 feet from the goal line.

Not even Tanner Glass can miss from there.

Maybe the npac warmth and central Pac warmth will help prevent the pending epac sst jump from changing where the convection sets up.

Because no one can look at the data and say it ain't happening.

Unless the models are way off.

They have backed down from bringing moderate wind anomalies to 90W versus the current forecast reaching 105-110W.

But with the inertia of the current Kelvin wave that's plenty enough to beat down the upwelling and flatten the thermocline somewhat

[snowman19]

So this is where we are.

During the last trade reversal/weakening East of the dateline. Basically over Enso 3.

Was at the end of September. We can see that for the most part the ssts

have stayed relatively steady over ENSO 3 thanks to the massive westerly wind burst near the Date Line and the couple small breaks in the trades over into Enso 3.

We have a high end strong to near super Nino

The current weakening of the trades over Enso 3 is not only happening further East. But the subsurface conditions have changed since the last one.

So this pretty much ensures the current Kelvin wave making its way across Enso 3 now will reach SA.

Also when the last enso 3 trade weakening took place the subsurface warm pool was stagnant.

Clearly the massive WWB not only kicked it in the ass it was enough to start a reinforcing warm pool on the backend.

So now this WWB over Enso 3 is coming into the game with a loaded gun.

Like Tarasenko and Ovechkin got the goalie flopped down out of his crease with the puck 2 feet from the goal line.

Not even Tanner Glass can miss from there.

Maybe the npac warmth and central Pac warmth will help prevent the pending epac sst jump from changing where the convection sets up.

Because no one can look at the data and say it ain't happening.

Unless the models are way off.

They have backed down from bringing moderate wind anomalies to 90W versus the current forecast reaching 105-110W.

But with the inertia of the current Kelvin wave that's plenty enough to beat down the upwelling and flatten the thermocline somewhat

Nice disco!

[thunderbolt]

ow.ly/TCMCE 

[PB GFI]

I like the forecast.

Nov AN

Dec AN

Jan BN

They touch on Feb and the 1st half of M , which I believe will be BN.

So far I agree with the forecast as it looks like the Euro evolution which was always colder J-M then D -F with its 3 month seasonal maps.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like the forecast.

Nov AN

Dec AN

Jan BN

They touch on Feb and the 1st half of M , which I believe will be BN.

So far I agree with the forecast as it looks like the Euro evolution which was always colder J-M then D -F with its 3 month seasonal maps.

Concur 100%.

[thunderbolt]

I though u guys would like that !

[PB GFI]

Concur 100%.

I wish I really knew.

I would short Nat gas thru Dec then buy it all in Jan .

It's nice to know that I am looking at some of the same drivers as others are and this hobby isn't totally out of my reach .

FYI. You had the best line of the fall ..

so many suffer from ENSO PTSD...

With all due respect to our vets of course. .

[40/70 Benchmark]

First half of October GOA low actually a hair west of my preseason call for winter 2016 back in early August:

[uncle W]

I don't think this will be a cookie cutter el nino year...The AO/NAO could change Decembers outcome if they are negative...

[PB GFI]

I don't think this will be a cookie cutter el nino year...The AO/NAO could change Decembers outcome if they are negative...

Agree UNC my Dec idea would get beat if blocking shows up like In D 09.

I do and have thought D would finish AN.

[40/70 Benchmark]

probably not concentrated though....I agree there is victory in the signs that this won't be another 97-98, but it isn't like 57-58 had a great PAC (though it was an air mass producer when we needed it)....I'm still far from convinced we get a Barry Bonds level west based block like that winter (which DC need - you don't)...whether that year or another, we are still analogging winters with huge anomalies somewhere...

The Pacific was not nearly as conducive in 1958.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You have to buy into running base periods though.  If you hold things constant, this year probably will be warmer than every winter except 97-98...I'm not saying you shouldn't buy into it, but I am pretty cautious to take anomalies for a winter like 57-58 at face value if you're using a rolling base period...using a constant base, this year is a furnace compared to that year

 

sep57.PNG

 

 

sep2015.PNG

Well, I'm going with what the experts do.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wish I really knew.

I would short Nat gas thru Dec then buy it all in Jan .

It's nice to know that I am looking at some of the same drivers as others are and this hobby isn't totally out of my reach .

FYI. You had the best line of the fall ..

so many suffer from ENSO PTSD...

With all due respect to our vets of course. .

Of course....I'm a vet, no worries.

[BuffaloWeather]

Pretty awesome maps right here that organize all El Nino Types with Temp/Precip

 

 

[Deck Pic]

Well, I'm going with what the experts do.

 

Not sure what the experts do.....by experts, do you mean anyone who goes cold and snowy?   September 1957 was 1.1 degrees colder in region 3.4 than this September......that's kind of a lot.....