Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[PB GFI]

Those aren't just anomalous west winds. The trade winds are actually going to reverse over the eastern tropical pacific by the end of this month. That is going to allow for very significant Nino region warming

                   R 1.2

01 OCT        2.8

07OCT2015  2.7 

14OCT2015  2.5 

 

Could you explain ? I mean I could stick 30 posts up since July where you are calling for intense warming in the eastern PAC .

 

Even if we get another spike it cools thereafter .

 

It has been the theme since July . The heat does not stick , the heat in the east is not broad and has made  ZERO difference in the summer and fall forcing . 

Any shift east has been met with a shift west and subsequent cooling further east . 

But all due respect , this is over .   Another spike is possible , but its coming on the heels of a now second decline and will only decline thereafter . 

 

 

R4 ticked up again . I am not sure how much more evidence someone need to see that this is now ,  has been and continues to be classified as a basin wide event .

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think it is relatively safe to conclude that the forcing is going to focus between about 140-180* west this winter.

Fine by me.

Slow December......BOOM.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Per the discussion in the sne thread, I actually feel as though extreme modoki events favor the mid atl...in general.

I think I like it fine as forecast.

Not sure I want to chance a -12SD neg NAO....

[Yanksfan]

I think it is relatively safe to conclude that the forcing is going to focus between about 140-180* west this winter.

Fine by me.

Slow December......BOOM.

I wouldn't be too quick to punt December just yet. Earlier on I was thinking the same idea of a warm start, but the -AO might have something to say about that. This is not your ordinary Nino event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wouldn't be too quick to punt December just yet. Earlier on I was thinking the same idea of a warm start, but the -AO might have something to say about that.

I agree....but the position of the GOA low this October argues for a hybrid scenario, a la 1958, 1966, 1987.....which ALL started slowly.

 

I think that may be the deal breaker for me with regard to December.

Maybe one half decent event, but not sure I'd expect Dec 2002.

November may have a surprise, though.

[Isotherm]

Wait till November when's it's above +3.0 and climbing, you do realize what is going on in that region right now right? ;-)

 

 

 

Latest CFS V2 runs indicate a gradual collapsing of region 1+2 values over the next 3-4 weeks, which would coincide with the progression of other basin-wide Nino's:

 

 

 

The PDF corrected region 3.4 forecast suggests we're nearing / attaining the peak magnitude of this ENSO event. My expectation is that any warming over the next 3-4 weeks will probably be relatively insignificant; the climax probably will be attained in November. 1972 and 1965 both had maxima occur in November.

 

[forkyfork]

the cfs has been wrong about 1+2 for months

[40/70 Benchmark]

the cfs has been wrong about 1+2 for months

Many in the milder camp have been touting it's warmer seasonal evolution, so something must give.

[PB GFI]

Nino 1+2 doesn't seem to be the deciding factor in the model forecasts.

The NMME is actually warmer than the CFS in 1+2 but has a colder winter

forecast for us. It seems like the issue is keeping Nino 4 warm enough

to maintain the more westerly forcing. 

 

CFSv2_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png

 

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png

 

 

Also the CFS is too far east with the neg in the GOA . So it is shunting the height field too far east in Canada . 

, it is at odds at 500 with the other guidance .

 

But you are correct here is the forcing differences . 160W vs 180W . But that alone should not torch the area .

 

 

[snowman19]

I wouldn't be too quick to punt December just yet. Earlier on I was thinking the same idea of a warm start, but the -AO might have something to say about that. This is not your ordinary Nino event.

How is this not your ordinary El Niño? It looks like a classic, textbook canonical el nino to me. Nothing unusual about it

[Isotherm]

the cfs has been wrong about 1+2 for months

 

The earlier projected decreases were unsupported by analogs / statistical climatology for +ENSO events. Nino 1+2 almost always decreases somewhat by Nov/Dec in events analogous to the present. I don't think we're going to see it plummet to sub +1.0c, but a drop under +2.0c is likely within the next several weeks, IMO.

[donsutherland1]

Wait till November when's it's above +3.0 and climbing, you do realize what is going on in that region right now right? ;-)

I'm not sure that's the case for November and I remain cautiously optimistic that it won't be the case. A secondary peak in the R1+2 anomalies is common during strong El Niño events. In many cases, the secondary peak winds up lower than the primary one. 1982-83 and 1997-98 are exceptions. 1982-83 developed much later than the 1997-98 event.

 

Finally, if one uses an average based on all the strong El Niño cases, one finds a relatively stable monthly average anomaly through November with week-to-week fluctuations followed by a gradual decline's commencing in December and continuing through January.

[forkyfork]

72's anomalies were central based... why no discussion about that year?

[mitchnick]

72's anomalies were central based... why no discussion about that year?

that's only 11/72....what was the average for 12/72-2/73?

[Isotherm]

I mentioned 1972 in my previous post and quite a bit recently, as I think it's one of the closest ENSO analogs right now. In terms of peak magnitude, I've thought that 1965 and 1972 will be the closest matches, with 1957 third. Of course, when we're discussing the winter pattern, ENSO must be considered in concert with other factors.

[forkyfork]

similar

[donsutherland1]

September PDO: +1.94 (4th highest on record)

 

December-February Statistics (September PDO: +1.00 or Above):

December-February average: +1.07

December-February average < 0: 0%

December-February average > 0: 100%

December-February average of +1.00 or above: 55% cases

 

Months < 0: 9% months

Months > 0: 91% months

Months +1.00 or above: 55% months

 

Total cases: 11; Total months: 33

[The_Global_Warmer]

So the subsurface warmth is going to magically vanish?

Weakening trades suddenly don't matter?

[PB GFI]

So the subsurface warmth is going to magically vanish?

Weakening trades suddenly don't matter ?

 

Not all sub surface warmth will surface , what does will not be enough to move the entire mass field east .

You have already seen the NINO explode west since July and is a basin wide NINO . R4s 1.1 is a record to date . 

Any spike and temporary shift in the forcing will shift back and cool again, Why ? 

1 the guidance shows you it will , but x the guidance we have seen  the forcing at the D/L since the spring and each time a KW took the some of the  water east , ( even though it was also spreading west )  it snapped back west and 1.2 has now cooled twice since July  . 

The largest body of WARM anomalies are between 100 - 140  R 3 AND R 3.4  Not between 80 and 100 like we saw in 97 

 

So it`s not now , has not been since June  nor will it be classified as an East based NINO 

[PB GFI]

One cannot  ignore the verification  

 

[Deck Pic]

I think it is relatively safe to conclude that the forcing is going to focus between about 140-180* west this winter.

Fine by me.

Slow December......BOOM.

 

probably not concentrated though....I agree there is victory in the signs that this won't be another 97-98, but it isn't like 57-58 had a great PAC (though it was an air mass producer when we needed it)....I'm still far from convinced we get a Barry Bonds level west based block like that winter (which DC need - you don't)...whether that year or another, we are still analogging winters with huge anomalies somewhere...

[snowman19]

Another strong WWB taking shape further east then the last big one...https://twitter.com/socalwxwatcher/status/656167560929406976

[Deck Pic]

Yea, 1.8-2 should do it.

 

You have to buy into running base periods though.  If you hold things constant, this year probably will be warmer than every winter except 97-98...I'm not saying you shouldn't buy into it, but I am pretty cautious to take anomalies for a winter like 57-58 at face value if you're using a rolling base period...using a constant base, this year is a furnace compared to that year

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Another strong WWB taking shape further east then the last big one...https://twitter.com/socalwxwatcher/status/656167560929406976

not as strong as the last, and that didn't kill us

[mitchnick]

You have to buy into running base periods though.  If you hold things constant, this year probably will be warmer than every winter except 97-98...I'm not saying you shouldn't buy into it, but I am pretty cautious to take anomalies for a winter like 57-58 at face value if you're using a rolling base period...using a constant base, this year is a furnace compared to that year

 

sep57.PNG

 

 

sep2015.PNG

I wonder how accurate the 1957 data is. Or more precisely, how different the 9/57 map would look if they had the technology we use now for determining the SSTA. I'm not saying it would make or difference or not, but we'd be able to compare with a little more confidence. Though admittedly, there are some pretty stark differences and I sorta doubt that better data would make a huge difference, at least not comparing 9/57 to this September.

[Deck Pic]

I wonder how accurate the 1957 data is. Or more precisely, how different the 9/57 map would look if they had the technology we use now for determining the SSTA. I'm not saying it would make or difference or not, but we'd be able to compare with a little more confidence. Though admittedly, there are some pretty stark differences and I sorta doubt that better data would make a huge difference, at least not comparing 9/57 to this September.

 

I think satellite info is folded into the reconstruction after 1948, but I could be wrong...That SST's have warmed in the ENSO regions over the last 100 years is incontrovertible, though

[Dsnowx53]

As Will pointed out in the main ENSO thread, the actual forcing keeps verifying west of where the forecasts show. This continues to bode well for generally persistent forcing near the Dateline as opposed to further east. 

 

The forecasts have already adjusted to show stronger westerly anomalies closer to 160W as opposed to 120W. 

[Deck Pic]

As Will pointed out in the main ENSO thread, the actual forcing keeps verifying west of where the forecasts show. This continues to bode well for generally persistent forcing near the Dateline as opposed to further east. 

 

The forecasts have already adjusted to show stronger westerly anomalies closer to 160W as opposed to 120W. 

 

Hopefully waiting until February for winter to start won't be too painful

[Deck Pic]

When you take the whole NP into account, this year is in a class by itself.

But it's all about keeping the forcing near the D/L this winter like the 

consensus of seasonal models show.

 

http://climexp.knmi.nl/select.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&field=sstoi_v2

 

post-1201-0-19926600-1444263062.png

 

that always works out

 

[ORH_wxman]

that always works out

 

meh.png

 

2007 was even west of the dateline by a bit at times. I do think a lot of the northeast kind of got shafted though in terms of snowfall from about 1/20 to the end of February. That pattern probably could have produced better. But the start of that winter was literally a top 3 most anemic/warm of all time. No sugarcoating that.