PB GFI Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 The actual forcing is shifting closer to 100W this week. But as long as we get back to near 180 after the MJO fades out in November we should be fine. vp.anom.30.5S-5N.gif Agreed. And the guidance says we do . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 People shouldn't be expecting the tropical forcing to remain constantly static in one area; it's the overall mean that's important. There will be variation / shifting wwd-ewd at times, as evidenced by virtually all years in the database. Thus, a transient eastward or westward shift in the convective cell shouldn't sound any alarm bells -- unless it becomes apparent that a regime change is occurring. Great point. Not at all diff. from seasonal temp anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 Great point. Not at all diff. from seasonal temp anomalies. If I had to guess, I think we see at least one more major WWB and downwelling kelvin wave after this latest MJO wave ends next month. Final peak early December, region 3.4 either ties or just barely beats the 1997 trimonthly peak is my prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I am so new and I have been follow this thread since it was created and googling a lot of the terms about this and I know there is probably so much more to it then what I am about to ask but what does it mean for the winter months to come? Favorable for big snow storms? More rain in the winter months then snow storms? Or is it anyone's guess at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 If I had to guess, I think we see at least one more major WWB and downwelling kelvin wave after this latest MJO wave ends next month. Final peak early December, region 3.4 either ties or just barely beats the 1997 trimonthly peak is my predictionI don't think it gets over 2.0.Peaks before December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I am so new and I have been follow this thread since it was created and googling a lot of the terms about this and I know there is probably so much more to it then what I am about to ask but what does it mean for the winter months to come? Favorable for big snow storms? More rain in the winter months then snow storms? Or is it anyone's guess at this point?Near normal temps and above normal precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 If you look at the NMME Jan ( which is a carbon copy of the Euro seasonal ) and believe in an OCT/WINTER correlation then you will not find guidance much closer to those 2 years .The Euro is actually a tick west with the height field over Hudson Bay . Exactly what many of us think and the better guidance ( Euro ) agrees . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 If you look at the NMME Jan ( which is a carbon copy of the Euro seasonal ) and believe in an OCT/WINTER correlation then you will not find guidance much closer to those 2 years .The Euro is actually a tick west with the height field over Hudson Bay . Exactly what many of us think and the better guidance ( Euro ) agrees . PB, how does 72/73 compare wrt 5h anomalies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Mitch , maybe Chris can find it , I'm driving maybe he can pull them off for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 PB, how does 72/73 compare wrt 5h anomalies? Here is Oct. and then the following winter: Oct 72- DJF 72/73- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Here is Oct. and then the following winter: Oct 72- 10-72H5.png DJF 72/73- DJF-73H5.png 72-73 was a a very odd -PDO strong El Nino. The ridge over portions of Alaska in October carried through to the winter backing a little further west. The strong piece of the Aleutian Low over California in October expanded to cover the whole West Coast south of Alaska. The 2 -EPO months during the winter were wasted since the vortex of California along with the +AO overpowered the pattern. http://www.wxmidwest.com/epo/newepo.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Here is Oct. and then the following winter: Oct 72- 10-72H5.png DJF 72/73- DJF-73H5.png Thanks. Different enough from October so far to keep my sleep intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 East based WWB underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 East based WWB underway It's related to the phase 1/2 MJO burst that is getting underway. It favors eastern ENSO region warming and WWBs in that area. As you can see in your graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 East based WWB underway It's not a Westerly Wind Burst this time... it's a weakening of the trade winds. There's no westerly component to the 850mb winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Here is Oct. and then the following winter: Oct 72- 10-72H5.png DJF 72/73- DJF-73H5.png you can see why most of the storms moved east instead of northeast...it was an odd set up but aren't they all...I think I posted these already..The Dec. 1972 surface maps from Weatherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 It's not a Westerly Wind Burst this time... it's a weakening of the trade winds. There's no westerly component to the 850mb winds. In essence a reversal of the surface trade winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 72-73 was a a very odd -PDO strong El Nino. The ridge over portions of Alaska in October carried through to the winter backing a little further west. The strong piece of the Aleutian Low over California in October expanded to cover the whole West Coast south of Alaska. The 2 -EPO months during the winter were wasted since the vortex of California along with the +AO overpowered the pattern. http://www.wxmidwest.com/epo/newepo.txt 72-73 was a mild winter,but not a blowtorch winter in the east..We had numerous cold shots however it was never timed out with any storms.Many storms went out to sea and we just missed snow events..yes the winter had the least snowfall of all time in NYC,but basically it was bad luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 In essence a reversal of the surface trade winds Trade winds on the Equator have an easterly component. A reversal of these winds means there's westerly winds. There's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 72-73 was a mild winter,but not a blowtorch winter in the east..We had numerous cold shots however it was never timed out with any storms.Many storms went out to sea and we just missed snow events..yes the winter had the least snowfall of all time in NYC,but basically it was bad luck All the best winter action in the 70's was from 76-77 to 78-79. That +PDO shift a piece of ice age beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 It's not a Westerly Wind Burst this time... it's a weakening of the trade winds. There's no westerly component to the 850mb winds. That should be more than enough to finish off the eastward progression of the mass of subsurface warm anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 The trades should actually become westerly over the next few days in the tropical Pacific even though they aren't attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 The trades should actually become westerly over the next few days in the tropical Pacific even though they aren't attmYes, that is what I was trying to say, the east pac is going to see a reversal of the trade winds. This MJO is very conducive to more eastern ENSO region warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 The trades should actually become westerly over the next few days in the tropical Pacific even though they aren't attm On the 23rd, you start seeing some westerly winds, true. But positive 850mb zonal wind anomalies on that chart doesn't always mean there's westerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Gfs shows it well. The sub surface warmth is huge. We will see in short order where this Nino is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Nino 1+2 and 3 down...3.4 steady....4 up. 07OCT2015 2.7 2.8 2.4 1.014OCT2015 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 TEXT BOOK BASIN WIDE NINO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Nino 1+2 and 3 down...3.4 steady....4 up. 07OCT2015 2.7 2.8 2.4 1.0 14OCT2015 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.1 So that`s 2 drops in a row now in 1.2 ? IMPOSSIBLE . Chris could you include the prior week , I would like to smile and start my week off on a happy note Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 19, 2015 Author Share Posted October 19, 2015 So that`s 2 drops in a row now in 1.2 ? IMPOSSIBLE . Chris could you include the prior week , I would like to smile and start my week off on a happy note Wait till November when's it's above +3.0 and climbing, you do realize what is going on in that region right now right? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 So that`s 2 drops in a row now in 1.2 ? IMPOSSIBLE . Chris could you include the prior week , I would like to smile and start my week off on a happy note It was 2.8 the week before and couldn't get back to the July 8th peak of 3.3 before falling again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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