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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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People shouldn't be expecting the tropical forcing to remain constantly static in one area; it's the overall mean that's important. There will be variation / shifting wwd-ewd at times, as evidenced by virtually all years in the database. Thus, a transient eastward or westward shift in the convective cell shouldn't sound any alarm bells -- unless it becomes apparent that a regime change is occurring.

Great point.

Not at all diff. from seasonal temp anomalies.

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Great point.

Not at all diff. from seasonal temp anomalies.

If I had to guess, I think we see at least one more major WWB and downwelling kelvin wave after this latest MJO wave ends next month. Final peak early December, region 3.4 either ties or just barely beats the 1997 trimonthly peak is my prediction
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I am so new and I have been follow this thread since it was created and googling a lot of the terms about this and I know there is probably so much more to it then what I am about to ask but what does it mean for the winter months to come? Favorable for big snow storms? More rain in the winter months then snow storms? Or is it anyone's guess at this point?

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If I had to guess, I think we see at least one more major WWB and downwelling kelvin wave after this latest MJO wave ends next month. Final peak early December, region 3.4 either ties or just barely beats the 1997 trimonthly peak is my prediction

I don't think it gets over 2.0.

Peaks before December.

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I am so new and I have been follow this thread since it was created and googling a lot of the terms about this and I know there is probably so much more to it then what I am about to ask but what does it mean for the winter months to come? Favorable for big snow storms? More rain in the winter months then snow storms? Or is it anyone's guess at this point?

Near normal temps and above normal precipitation.
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If you look at the NMME Jan ( which is a carbon copy of the Euro seasonal ) and believe in an OCT/WINTER  correlation  then you will not find guidance much closer to those 2 years   .The Euro is actually a tick west with the height field over Hudson Bay .

Exactly what many of us think and the better guidance ( Euro ) agrees . 

 

post-564-0-29211900-1445169062.png

 

 

 

NMME_ensemble_z200_lead3.png

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If you look at the NMME Jan ( which is a carbon copy of the Euro seasonal ) and believe in an OCT/WINTER correlation then you will not find guidance much closer to those 2 years .The Euro is actually a tick west with the height field over Hudson Bay .

Exactly what many of us think and the better guidance ( Euro ) agrees .

post-564-0-29211900-1445169062.png

NMME_ensemble_z200_lead3.png

PB, how does 72/73 compare wrt 5h anomalies?
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Here is Oct. and then the following winter:

 

Oct 72-

 

attachicon.gif10-72H5.png

 

DJF 72/73-

 

attachicon.gifDJF-73H5.png

 

72-73 was a a very odd -PDO strong El Nino. The ridge over portions of Alaska in October carried 

through to the winter backing a little further west. The strong piece of the Aleutian Low over California

in October expanded to cover the whole West Coast south of Alaska. The 2 -EPO months during the

winter were wasted since the vortex of California along with the +AO overpowered the pattern.

 

http://www.wxmidwest.com/epo/newepo.txt

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72-73 was a a very odd -PDO strong El Nino. The ridge over portions of Alaska in October carried 

through to the winter backing a little further west. The strong piece of the Aleutian Low over California

in October expanded to cover the whole West Coast south of Alaska. The 2 -EPO months during the

winter were wasted since the vortex of California along with the +AO overpowered the pattern.

 

http://www.wxmidwest.com/epo/newepo.txt

72-73 was a mild winter,but not a blowtorch winter in the east..We had numerous cold shots however it was never timed out with any storms.Many storms went out to sea and we just missed snow events..yes the winter had the least snowfall of all time in NYC,but basically it was bad luck

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72-73 was a mild winter,but not a blowtorch winter in the east..We had numerous cold shots however it was never timed out with any storms.Many storms went out to sea and we just missed snow events..yes the winter had the least snowfall of all time in NYC,but basically it was bad luck

 

All the best winter action in the 70's was from 76-77 to 78-79. That +PDO shift a piece of ice age beauty. ;)

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The trades should actually become westerly over the next few days in the tropical Pacific even though they aren't attm

Yes, that is what I was trying to say, the east pac is going to see a reversal of the trade winds. This MJO is very conducive to more eastern ENSO region warming
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Nino 1+2 and 3 down...3.4 steady....4 up.

 

07OCT2015  2.7 2.8  2.4  1.0

14OCT2015  2.5 2.6  2.4  1.1

 

So that`s 2 drops in a row now in 1.2 ?  IMPOSSIBLE . 

Chris could you include the prior week , I would like to smile and start my week off on a happy note  :)

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So that`s 2 drops in a row now in 1.2 ? IMPOSSIBLE .

Chris could you include the prior week , I would like to smile and start my week off on a happy note :)

Wait till November when's it's above +3.0 and climbing, you do realize what is going on in that region right now right? ;-)
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So that`s 2 drops in a row now in 1.2 ?  IMPOSSIBLE . 

Chris could you include the prior week , I would like to smile and start my week off on a happy note  :)

 

It was 2.8 the week before and couldn't get back to the July 8th peak of 3.3 before falling again.

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