donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 The 90-day SOI average has fallen further to -19.223. That is the lowest figure since May 14, 1998 when the 90-day average was -19.839. It is also the 85th lowest figure since 1991. Right now, the current El Niño is continuing increase in magnitude. So far, the best forcing associated with the current event has been to the west of the 1997-98 center. IMO, the probability that the strongest forcing will remain to the west during the winter is increasing now that we're into mid-October. Even the CFSv2 is beginning to hint at it in its ENSO Region forecasts. According to that guidance, which has been the most pessimistic for winter, ENSO Region 1+2 is at or near its secondary peak while Regions 3, 3.4, and 4 should see additional warming. Should a cooling of the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies commence over the next few weeks, that would be a strong indication that focus of forcing will likely stay to the west of the 1997-98 ENSO event. At the same time, the PDO remains positive. Although the September figure has not yet been released, I suspect it will fall somewhere between +1.20 and +1.50 (August was +1.56) given the monthly SSTAs. A PDO+ also favors a PNA+ during the winter which can lead to troughs further downstream in the East. In sum, I thought it was premature to write off the possibility of a decent winter. A warm winter scenario is on the table, but I believe the probability of that outcome has continued to decline. The odds of a normal winter in terms of snowfall and possibly above normal one have increased, especially in the Middle Atlantic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 The 500mb low is too far west on that jamstec composite to be favorable. The flat ridging in eastern Canada is a downstream reaction to the strong goAK low. It's not a real nao. The northeast is warm. Not saying it will break that way, just saying what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 The 90-day SOI average has fallen further to -19.223. That is the lowest figure since May 14, 1998 when the 90-day average was -19.839. It is also the 85th lowest figure since 1991. Right now, the current El Niño is continuing increase in magnitude. So far, the best forcing associated with the current event has been to the west of the 1997-98 center. IMO, the probability that the strongest forcing will remain to the west during the winter is increasing now that we're into mid-October. Even the CFSv2 is beginning to hint at it in its ENSO Region forecasts. According to that guidance, which has been the most pessimistic for winter, ENSO Region 1+2 is at or near its secondary peak while Regions 3, 3.4, and 4 should see additional warming. Should a cooling of the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies commence over the next few weeks, that would be a strong indication that focus of forcing will likely stay to the west of the 1997-98 ENSO event. At the same time, the PDO remains positive. Although the September figure has not yet been released, I suspect it will fall somewhere between +1.20 and +1.50 (August was +1.56) given the monthly SSTAs. A PDO+ also favors a PNA+ during the winter which can lead to troughs further downstream in the East. In sum, I thought it was premature to write off the possibility of a decent winter. Such a scenario is on the table, but I believe the probability of that outcome has continued to decline. The odds of a normal winter in terms of snowfall and possibly above normal one have increased, especially in the Middle Atlantic region. Don, typo?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I don't even bother with 2m temp anomalies on the seaonals......just look at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I don't even bother with 2m temp anomalies on the seaonals......just look at H5. True..but with this El Nino..the analogs all point to a warmer than normal winter..when I see years of 72-73,82-83,87-88 and 97-98 thrown around I can't be too optimistic..again, anything can happen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 True..but with this El Nino..the analogs all point to a warmer than normal winter..when I see years of 72-73,82-83,87-88 and 97-98 thrown around I can't be too optimistic..again, anything can happen.. I'm more optimistic now about the upcoming winter...I'm not expecting another 50" winter in the city...I'm in the 25"-35" range with one 12-18" storm...I don't expect 14 measurable events like the last two years...I think it will be closer to eight events...1982-83 had 27.2" from five events counting the April snow and rain event...my take on temperatures are normal to above but not a torch....The analogs used are feast or famine...I like the way the pattern is now...1972's October was good also but so was 2002 and 2009... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Hey man I kind of disagree here . Huge NEG in the GOA ,There is a NEG NAO , look at how the trough connects from the SE up the EC and on into Europe. Then look at the where the height field is centered , right over HB . so to me this looks good . The core of the positive height anomalies is near Hudson's Bay; ideally, it should be further northeast, closer to Greenland / Davis Straights in order to induce an effective -NAO. The pattern verbatim wouldn't be a disaster, but I don't think it would be good. Doesn't matter much anyway at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 The 500mb low is too far west on that jamstec composite to be favorable. The flat ridging in eastern Canada is a downstream reaction to the strong goAK low. It's not a real nao. The northeast is warm. Not saying it will break that way, just saying what it shows. I think you meant that the 500mb low is too far east, but I agree, as I just posted. Also - those images are from the JMA. The JAMSTEC doesn't provided H5 anomalies as far as I'm aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I think you meant that the 500mb low is too far east, but I agree, as I just posted. Also - those images are from the JMA. The JAMSTEC doesn't provided H5 anomalies as far as I'm aware. Yeah sorry that's what I meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 The new IRI forecast plumes are out, still predicting a +2.5C ONI peak for Nino 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 Yeah, we are very close to the peak levels this week with some slow further warming continuing for 3.4. In the most recent week, the SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region was 2.4 C, reflecting strong El Niño conditions in this weekly time scale, and 2.3 C for the month of September, also at a strong level. It should peak out in December, pretty good agreement there, and yea warming still ongoing in 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 The core of the positive height anomalies is near Hudson's Bay; ideally, it should be further northeast, closer to Greenland / Davis Straights in order to induce an effective -NAO. The pattern verbatim wouldn't be a disaster, but I don't think it would be good. Doesn't matter much anyway at this juncture. i agree, it does not matter this far out , but when I see the neg that deep SW in the Aleutians the guidance tend to wash the trough out downstream . It may not mirror the NEG in the GOA , but if that GOA look is right then the trough on the EC is deeper . BTW too much blocking leads to suppression , so having the POS over HB will still promote a Neut or Slightly neg NAO extending the trough into Europe . Show me that look 2 weeks out and I would say LP will come out of the SE . JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 December '97 was actually fun.....the 12/23/97 was one of my most enjoyable events. I'm assuming you were up near Boston that month? Down here on the coast at least it wasn't exactly fun if you like snow. I have a feeling the poconos are gonna get theirs this winter. They are due and in a sweet spot sitting at 2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 True..but with this El Nino..the analogs all point to a warmer than normal winter..when I see years of 72-73,82-83,87-88 and 97-98 thrown around I can't be too optimistic..again, anything can happen.. Not with where the forcing is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I agree. I don't want every index perfect, or I'll be congratulating Norfolk. i agree, it does not matter this far out , but when I see the neg that deep SW in the Aleutians the guidance tend to wash the trough out downstream . It may not mirror the NEG in the GOA , but if that GOA look is right then the trough on the EC is deeper . BTW too much blocking leads to suppression , so having the POS over HB will still promote a Neut or Slightly neg NAO extending the trough into Europe . Show me that look 2 weeks out and I would say LP will come out of the SE . JMO. Yes. Right where I am now. We had several inches per hour. I'm assuming you were up near Boston that month? Down here on the coast at least it wasn't exactly fun if you like snow.I have a feeling the poconos are gonna get theirs this winter. They are due and in a sweet spot sitting at 2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Don, typo?? Yes. It should read: In sum, I thought it was premature to write off the possibility of a decent winter. A warm winter scenario is on the table, but I believe the probability of that outcome has continued to decline. The odds of a normal winter in terms of snowfall and possibly above normal one have increased, especially in the Middle Atlantic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I agree. I don't want every index perfect, or I'll be congratulating Norfolk. Yes. Right where I am now. We had several inches per hour. I could see that. We came so so close to something big during one of the November noreasters down here. We had super heavy rain change over to some of the biggest heaviest parachutes I have seen to date. Unfortunity they did not stick much with temps in the upper 30s. I'm sure we will see some of those super juiced super rates storms this winter too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Strongest WWB over the EPAC of this Nino getting underway. There is no way there won't be massive warming. Wwb this far East will immediately stop up welling and mitigate mixing of cooler water at the surface allowing additional warming at the surface with the surfacing subsurface warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Look at how much the warm pool has moved East the last two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Any critiques welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Just updated via BoM: the average of all major models have this Nino peaking almost as high, if not higher, than 97-98. The spread (lack thereof) is impressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 Just updated via BoM: the average of all major models have this Nino peaking almost as high, if not higher, than 97-98. The spread (lack thereof) is impressive as well. Yea that would be stronger than 97-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Guys we all know this is a strong el nino and one of the strongest etc ..that has been clear for quite some time. No sense in shouting it from the mountaintop when everyone knows this... However this does NOT mean that the winter can not be cold and snowy either.. There is more to the atmospheric weather conditions then ENSO .. There is where the greatest forcing is located.. is the PDO looking to stay positive? NAO and AO . So many more pieces then just strength of the ENSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 Guys we all know this is a strong el nino and one of the strongest etc ..that has been clear for quite some time. No sense in shouting it from the mountaintop when everyone knows this... However this does NOT mean that the winter can not be cold and snowy either.. There is more to the atmospheric weather conditions then ENSO .. There is where the greatest forcing is located.. is the PDO looking to stay positive? NAO and AO . So many more pieces then just strength of the ENSOThis thread is an El Niño thread that's why everyone is discussion the Nino and not winter predictions or the NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Any critiques welcomed. Ray , EXCELLENT work . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I'll be quite frankly stunned if models do not end up a bit too aggressive with regard to the ultimate strength of el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Yeah, very nice presentation. You would expect the trough to be deeper over the SE especially second half of January through March than the Euro is showing. We have been discussing that it sees the ridge better over Western NOAM and the trough is usually underdone over the East. I hope the Euro idea works out since that is such a great look. I really agree here . With a trough in the GOA that strong , I find it hard that it will not get reflected on the EC . The evolution of the Euro seasonal shows this . it pulls the ridge back in Jan and looks good for Feb . It seems to be an error that we see a lot . I don`t expect it to translate all of the time , but too often the models just miss it`s strength . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Just updated via BoM: the average of all major models have this Nino peaking almost as high, if not higher, than 97-98. The spread (lack thereof) is impressive as well. Are these models utilizing the OISST dataset calibration or the ERSST? I know the IRI guidance utilizes the former, and so, a projected peak trimonthly of 2.4-2.5c or so would probably only translate to around 2.0c on the official ONI trimonthly of the ERSST dataset. It's a fairly significant difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Are these models utilizing the OISST dataset calibration or the ERSST? I know the IRI guidance utilizes the former, and so, a projected peak trimonthly of 2.4-2.5c or so would probably only translate to around 2.0c on the official ONI trimonthly of the ERSST dataset. It's a fairly significant difference. The models are still using the OISST dataset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Are these models utilizing the OISST dataset calibration or the ERSST? I know the IRI guidance utilizes the former, and so, a projected peak trimonthly of 2.4-2.5c or so would probably only translate to around 2.0c on the official ONI trimonthly of the ERSST dataset. It's a fairly significant difference. Yea, 1.8-2 should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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