bluewave Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Probably will not reach '97-'98 status, but it's becoming evident that a solidly strong to very strong east-based Nino is becoming more and more probable Part of the problem in determining the final strength of this event is this modern crop of ENSO models have no verification stats for second year El Ninos. On top of that, even June forecasts in recent years have left plenty to be desired. So it may just come down to monitoring things like the SOI, WWB's, and other data on a weekly basis for a while. Some recent ECMWF June forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Nino 1+2 and 3.4 ticked down a bit from the update last week. 27MAY2015 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.103JUN2015 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Nino 1+2 and 3.4 ticked down a bit from the update last week. 27MAY2015 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 03JUN2015 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 Good keep dropping lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 A strong el nino is something NYC area should not root for if you like a snowy cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 A strong el nino is something NYC area should not root for if you like a snowy cold winter. If we get the blocking like we did in 09-10 then it wont be too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 A strong el nino is something NYC area should not root for if you like a snowy cold winter.We probably won't have the extreme cold as we did in 14-15 or 13-14 but snow is always a question mark. It only takes a couple good storms to get above average, Feb 1983 proves that. 09-10 was a strong event that featured over 50" snow in NYC. 57-58 was strong and had 45".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 If we get the blocking like we did in 09-10 then it wont be too bad with a -AMO we are unlikely to see blocking or at least sustained blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Not sure if we get to strong Nino at this rate especially if it peaks early. I hope that's the case because it'll make a world of difference this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 8, 2015 Author Share Posted June 8, 2015 Not sure if we get to strong Nino at this rate especially if it peaks early. I hope that's the case because it'll make a world of difference this winter.Look at what's going on right now, there's a Kelvin wave moving through and WWB now in the eastern regions. The warming is about to pickup again. It is actually very likely this does reach strong status, super status is the real question mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 with a -AMO we are unlikely to see blocking or at least sustained blocking. Well that blows big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 with a -AMO we are unlikely to see blocking or at least sustained blocking.The 1960s had a -NAO block in a -AMO regime so that's not always true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 We probably won't have the extreme cold as we did in 14-15 or 13-14 but snow is always a question mark. It only takes a couple good storms to get above average, Feb 1983 proves that. 09-10 was a strong event that featured over 50" snow in NYC. 57-58 was strong and had 45"..9/10 and 57/58 were modoki events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 The 1960s had a -NAO block in a -AMO regime so that's not always true. Agree...not always a lock, but the 1980's and early 90's were a -AMO and we were mostly warm and snowless...I'll take the 60's version please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Agree...not always a lock, but the 1980's and early 90's were a -AMO and we were mostly warm and snowless...I'll take the 60's version please. The 1980s actually had quite a few colder than normal winters. The AMO - NAO correlation is very weak. There are superior indicators available to forecast the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 9/10 and 57/58 were modoki events And it's yet to be determined whether this one will end up as a modoki or not. Depends upon how quickly 1+2 cool in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 8, 2015 Author Share Posted June 8, 2015 9/10 and 57/58 were modoki eventsExactly, they were west-based El Ninos like '02-'03. This one, so far is east-based. What is going on right now is not what you want to see. This current pattern with the trade winds in 3.4 and 4 and a WWB in regions 3 and 1+2 is definitely not an indication of a west-based modoki event. The western regions will end up cooler than the eastern ones. The kelvin waves that have moved through so far have been supportive of eastern region warming. If this is going to turn into a west-based event it had better start showing signs of doing so over the next few months. The other Ninos mentioned, '02-'03, '09-'10, '57-'58, etc. already had signs of being west-based events by now. So far, this one does not. That said, once this temporary anomaly at 120E leaves, the WWB onslaught will start again in 3.4 and 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 We probably won't have the extreme cold as we did in 14-15 or 13-14 but snow is always a question mark. It only takes a couple good storms to get above average, Feb 1983 proves that. 09-10 was a strong event that featured over 50" snow in NYC. 57-58 was strong and had 45".. I know we would need more blocking than we had in recent years if it is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Other indices must be in our favor and if the nino peaks early that would be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Exactly, they were west-based El Ninos like '02-'03. This one, so far is east-based. What is going on right now is not what you want to see. This current pattern with the trade winds in 3.4 and 4 and a WWB in regions 3 and 1+2 is definitely not an indication of a west-based modoki event. The western regions will end up cooler than the eastern ones. The kelvin waves that have moved through so far have been supportive of eastern region warming. If this is going to turn into a west-based event it had better start showing signs of doing so over the next few months. The other Ninos mentioned, '02-'03, '09-'10, '57-'58, etc. already had signs of being west-based events by now. So far, this one does not. That said, once this temporary anomaly at 120E leaves, the WWB onslaught will start again in 3.4 and 4 Disagree. 2009-10 looked fairly east-based in JJA, and didn't really transition central/west based until mid autumn. There's plenty of time to transition east-->west over the next several months. June 15th 2009: July 16th 2009: August 17th 2009: November 12th 2009: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 8, 2015 Author Share Posted June 8, 2015 I wil look up the numbers but I don't remember the eastern region (3 and 1+2) warming and wwbs being as intense as they are now back in '09-'10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 8, 2015 Author Share Posted June 8, 2015 Also of note, we may be about to enter a strong WWB period in the coming weeks. Antarctic air is pushing over Australia right now. That promotes cooling SSTs around it, high pressure and more of a classic +IOD pattern and WWBs. It should be an SOI dropper too. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 9, 2015 Author Share Posted June 9, 2015 The POAMA has backed off a bit from its May forecast. The highest single month reading in May was July reaching +1.94 and now reaches +1.8. So the POAMA is going with a JAS tri-monthly of +1.7. Last June the POAMA was fairly close on the summer forecast but was a little too cool for the fall into the winter. This makes sense since model forecasts beyond 3 months can be very uncertain. NINO34 (°C) 1.80 1.74 1.52 1.51 1.58 1.59 1.50 poama.nino34.png It looks like a +IOD is starting to take shape now. We'll see what effect that has on the Nino's development. It may bring a more favorable pattern (WWB, -SOI) for strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Ninos almost always start out east based and become west based in time...no need to panic yet. Also, the recent cooling and less aggressive model forecasts give us a stronger chance to get a Modoki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 Bluewave, we are going to rebound. This was all a temporary flux, MJO wave related. I don't think it will get that strong but even '97-'98 had a lul period around this time of year. Look what's down the pipeline, strengthening +IOD, Antarctic air surge north into Australia, promoting high pressure and cooling ssts, MJO becoming no longer hostile to development and the ongoing warming and wwb in ninos 3 and especially 1+2. This lul is just temporary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Per the 0Z 6/10 Euro, there are finally signs suggesting at least a few days of strongly -SOI's. The SOI would fall rather sharply from 6/17 through around 6/20 though the SOI could then rebound soon afterward. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 We'll have to wait and see how much longer the lull lasts and whether the WWB and SOI pattern can return to what we saw back in March through May. This MJO pulse is having the opposite impact of the strong one back in March which helped initiate the El Nino development. That was a record 5-7 transit which has a different effect effect on the tropical winds than the current very strong 1-3. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Tropical/ Very good analysis and explanation. By the end of this month I expect we will be well back into full out Nino development. This Antarctic surge north into Austrialia and the equatorial trough, along with the developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the MJO becoming not hostile to development are the ingredients you need for -SOI and WWBs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 Per the 0Z 6/10 Euro, there are finally signs suggesting at least a few days of strongly -SOI's. The SOI would fall rather sharply from 6/17 through around 6/20 though the SOI could then rebound soon afterward. We'll see.The Antarctic surge is increasing pressures over Indonesia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 The Antarctic surge is increasing pressures over Indonesia The main change I'm seeing for just after mid month is a fall of SLP's near Tahiti. However, the models for late month are nebulous right now. The 0Z GEFS is suggesting higher SLP's for N Australia then. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 Honestly, early call, I think this El Niño peaks around November at high end strong, to low end super. If I had to guess, I'd say somewhere in the ballpark of +1.9C to +2.1C. At this time I don't see it equaling or surpassing '97-'98 because the warmest subsurface anomalies are just over +5C, back in '97 the warmest were +7C. Again early call and we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 11, 2015 Author Share Posted June 11, 2015 Latest ENSO update from NOAA: http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/june-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-damn-torpedoes-full-speed-ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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