ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I agree. Most of us agree on how this winter will start though. The big issue is how it'll end. Something that surfaces in December may affect March, maybe perhaps late February (the very end of winter)...Jan/Feb will be more affected by ENSO prior to that, so it won't really matter by the time something is progressing in December...and I do not think there is a good consensus on January/February at this point. At any rate, I'm skeptical of this becoming more like '82-'83/'97-'98 versus a basin-wide event. The WWBs haven't been strong enough far enough east to produce those results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 The wishcasting want aimed at you , there are some relentless east base posters here who if they like warm winters they should come back next year I think they will b happy. This year looks more like 09/10 57/58 to me than 97/98. I just can't see how 3 KW resulting in D/L forcing will move east with the 4th The argument I am seeing is well it spread east in 97 . However the forcing was further east in 97 than where it is now and some are conflating the 2. They are starting from different points in the PAC and since I have seen 3 KW so far have no event on the forcing if this 4th pulls it east it will b slight and will have minimal impact if it does. The CFS represents what people are talking about with the warmth "spreading east". It has a Nino collapse similar to what happened in 97-98 (from west to east). CFS is the only major model showing this, so assuming it's wrong, I'd call what we're gonna see in late November "the warmth expanding east". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 While statistically / climatologically the probability is heightened for a slow start to winter due to the sheer magnitude of the ENSO event, I'm far from convinced on the progression of the winter with respect to 500mb / temperature anomalies. If one notes the prior warm El Nino Decembers, they all had a common denominator: positive modality of the NAO / AO. This was the case in 1957, 1982, 1972, 1965, etc. However, years like 2002, 2009, and even 1997, which featured a -NAO/AO in December, were cooler months. December of 1997 was the coldest month relative to normal of the winter, in direct contrast to typical Nino progression [and 1997-98 was the strongest +ENSO event on record]. So the idea that winter doesn't initiate until January or later is questionable; I could easily see the reverse depending upon the evolution of the NAO/AO. The sample size of strong Nino's isn't sufficiently robust for me to feel comfortable broad-brushing on progression at this juncture. With all that said, there's much more data that must be awaited over the next one month or so before I write my winter outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 And by the time we spike after we dip will it be too late or matter . http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf The Downwelling phases of a Kelvin wave were observed in March-April ( Missed the 1st one but the basin climbed in the response as well ) , mid-May to late June, and July to August. During August and September, positive subsurface temperature anomalies slowly shifted eastward. There is recent evidence of another downwelling Kelvin wave, initiated in early October. My point is during this entire time , in addition to 1.2 increasing the rest of the basin did while the forcing never came east . The forcing has been pinned at the D/L since May and I believe it does not come that far east in N-D. In 97 we were already forcing east of where we are now . We can agree to disagree here . I don't think we're actually THAT far apart. I'm thinking a slow creep is possible, perhaps to around 160W. Nor am I saying this is a repeat of '97. For one, there's been some highly anomalous westerlies centered around 10N in the past couple of months that have given a very different SSTA signature north of the main ENSO region to which we have no real analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I don't think we're actually THAT far apart. I'm thinking a slow creep is possible, perhaps to around 160W. Nor am I saying this is a repeat of '97. For one, there's been some highly anomalous westerlies centered around 10N in the past couple of months that have given a very different SSTA signature north of the main ENSO region to which we have no real analogs. I agree we are in uncharted territory in terms of the a macro view of the PAC I don`t know if we can find an analog with that much warm water off the coast of Cali , the EP region with such a strong ENSO event . I don`t think all 3 were present at the same time this late . Maybe Chris or Tom can find it . Now I can live with 160W forcing . We probably agree on a STJ and a SE trough in the means , but here`s my 2 questions , how much more energy gets introduced to the CONUS with all the warm water off the WC ? Which raises the stakes for wetter systems and Finally as the wave lengths shorten ans the jet off Asia is forced over the top does the NEG in the GOA get pulled far enough west to allow the center of highest heights to center themselves WEST of Hudson bay ? I am always aware of how an ENSO pattern driven takeover has to always be considered . But as one could surmise by my posting I just don`t buy it . I am looking at the entire basin , it`s greatest D/L forcing ( if it stays ) with all that warm water in the EP region and I am saying , I have not seen this set up before . So either I see this clearly from 30k feet or come March I will get my a$$ handed to me here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 There is a wwb coming far Epac Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 There is a wwb coming far Epac Enjoy They haven't really been of much significance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 While statistically / climatologically the probability is heightened for a slow start to winter due to the sheer magnitude of the ENSO event, I'm far from convinced on the progression of the winter with respect to 500mb / temperature anomalies. If one notes the prior warm El Nino Decembers, they all had a common denominator: positive modality of the NAO / AO. This was the case in 1957, 1982, 1972, 1965, etc. However, years like 2002, 2009, and even 1997, which featured a -NAO/AO in December, were cooler months. December of 1997 was the coldest month relative to normal of the winter, in direct contrast to typical Nino progression [and 1997-98 was the strongest +ENSO event on record]. So the idea that winter doesn't initiate until January or later is questionable; I could easily see the reverse depending upon the evolution of the NAO/AO. The sample size of strong Nino's isn't sufficiently robust for me to feel comfortable broad-brushing on progression at this juncture. With all that said, there's much more data that must be awaited over the next one month or so before I write my winter outlook. I'm not sold on a December punt, either.....TBH, everything that has transpired over the course of the past few weeks has given me pause in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 There is a wwb coming far Epac Enjoy 850mb zonal wind totals show only weak westerlies in the EPAC by early next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 With today's -42.2 reading, the 90-day SOI average has fallen to -19.078. That's the lowest figure since May 15, 1998, when the 90-day average was -19.171. That earlier figure will likely be surpassed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I use this one to build the plots above... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/printpage.pl or this one for post 1950 which is ERSSTv4... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl thank you so much... i could not find it on google no matter what search terms i tried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 850mb zonal wind totals show only weak westerlies in the EPAC by early next week: What does it show the last 90 DAYS? Context Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 What does it show the last 90 DAYS? Context This is the strongest and furthest east downwelling kelvin wave we have seen all year, we also currently have the strongest and furthest east WWB of 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Context , where we were , where are we are and where we are going . Even the beloved CFS sees what I see ... NOTHING but D/L forcing . 3 KWs this year and the forcing is stubbornly stuck at the D/L . If we just go by what the last 6 months have shown us and look at ALL the guidance over the next 4 months , I think you will find a consensus in regards to this part of the forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Brand new article regarding the warm blob http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3154 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 The JMA keeps the forcing through the winter near the Date Line with the Aleutian Low far enough west to allow ridging to extend west of Hudson Bay. Y201510.D0800_gl0.png Y201510.D0800.png Looks suppressed to these weenie eyes, even for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Looks suppressed to these weenie eyes, even for BWI. It has above normal precip from the Gulf up the East Coast. But the details of exact amounts are outside the range of these seasonal models. High pressure sets up north of the Great Lakes for a supply of cold with a raging STJ underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Brand new article regarding the warm blob http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3154 However, SSTs along the immediate coast from California to British Columbia may actually remain well above average this winter. That’s because powerful storms in the Northeast Pacific would tend to foster strong south winds near the coast. Waters near the surface tend to move to the right of the winds above (a process called Ekman transport), so the strong south winds would tend to push warmer water toward the coast and suppress any upwelling of cooler water. That spells a ridge in the means on the WC which gives you a + PNA . That should translate to a trough in the SE/MA ( EC ) in the means . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 It has above normal precip from the Gulf up the East Coast. But the details of exact amounts are outside the range of these seasonal models. High pressure sets up north of the Great Lakes for a supply of cold with a raging STJ underneath. Y201510.D0800_gl1.png The ridge over HB looks to be a compromise between the Euro and CFS . But that NEG in the GOA with a POS PNA does stick the trough in the SE . I agree with you , I see wet up the EC too . So that looks workable . Definitely a lean towards the Euro JAMSTEC NMME camp . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 JAMSTEC is also out today w/ essentially the same look as its previous run. Near normal temperatures running along the Mason-Dixon line with cool to the south and warm to the north. What's interesting to me is the cool anomalies are fairly far north in the Plains, suggesting that it's more than STJ induced cold. It's difficult to determine w/o H5, but the implication seems to be for a west based -NAO and -EPO/+PNA based upon temperatures. The UK is cold which would imply a -NAO forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Looking at the JMA monthly progression, December is actually more conducive than January. In the former the GOA vortex is far enough west such that heights increase rapidly near the British Columbian coast, allowing for lower heights to extend northeastward into the mid/north Atlantic states. It then depicts an atypical scenario in which the mean GOAK trough pushes ewd up against the British Columbian coast for January, thereby effectively stultifying the low heights further south. The January image on the JMA is somewhat ugly verbatim, though not as ugly as the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 Looking at the JMA monthly progression, December is actually more conducive than January. In the former the GOA vortex is far enough west such that heights increase rapidly near the British Columbian coast, allowing for lower heights to extend northeastward into the mid/north Atlantic states. It then depicts an atypical scenario in which the mean GOAK trough pushes ewd up against the British Columbian coast for January, thereby effectively stultifying the low heights further south. The January image on the JMA is somewhat ugly verbatim, though not as ugly as the CFS.I looked back at 97, December actually wasn't too bad, the real torch didn't start until early january and it just continued right through march 98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 A strong October MJO push into phase 1-2 would be closer to the October or November 2002 and 2010 than 1997. ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif 200910.phase.90days.gif.small.gif 200210.phase.90days.gif.small.gif 199710.phase.90days.gif.small.gif Of course it would.....only a select few thought otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I looked back at 97, December actually wasn't too bad, the real torch didn't start until early january and it just continued right through march 98. December '97 was actually fun.....the 12/23/97 was one of my most enjoyable events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 A strong October MJO push into phase 1-2 would be closer to the October or November 2002 and 2010 than 1997. ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif 200910.phase.90days.gif.small.gif 200210.phase.90days.gif.small.gif 199710.phase.90days.gif.small.gif This is the wild card for Nov/Dec, IMO. MJO is usually not active during strong nino period. Could keep forcing closer to dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 JAMSTEC is also out today w/ essentially the same look as its previous run. Near normal temperatures running along the Mason-Dixon line with cool to the south and warm to the north. What's interesting to me is the cool anomalies are fairly far north in the Plains, suggesting that it's more than STJ induced cold. It's difficult to determine w/o H5, but the implication seems to be for a west based -NAO and -EPO/+PNA based upon temperatures. The UK is cold which would imply a -NAO forecasted. Lots of evidence mounting in favor of neggie AO/NAO. I think I'm changing my tune on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Looking at the JMA monthly progression, December is actually more conducive than January. In the former the GOA vortex is far enough west such that heights increase rapidly near the British Columbian coast, allowing for lower heights to extend northeastward into the mid/north Atlantic states. It then depicts an atypical scenario in which the mean GOAK trough pushes ewd up against the British Columbian coast for January, thereby effectively stultifying the low heights further south. The January image on the JMA is somewhat ugly verbatim, though not as ugly as the CFS. Hey man I kind of disagree here . Huge NEG in the GOA ,There is a NEG NAO , look at how the trough connects from the SE up the EC and on into Europe. Then look at the where the height field is centered , right over HB . so to me this looks good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 It has above normal precip from the Gulf up the East Coast. But the details of exact amounts are outside the range of these seasonal models. High pressure sets up north of the Great Lakes for a supply of cold with a raging STJ underneath. Y201510.D0800_gl1.png Well, I saw that but the 500mb map suggests suppressed imho. Note that I am paranoid about a 72/73 redux. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Well, I saw that but the 500mb map suggests suppressed imho. Note that I am paranoid about a 72/73 redux. Lol The strength of MJO 1-2 activity being forecast would be closer to weaker or moderate events as it also occurred in November 1977. It may be that the convection near the Date Line is keeping the MJO more active? 197710.phase.90days.gif.small.gif I like the way ENSO is shaping up. I was just saying in the sne thread, undisturbed GOM owed to a dearth of tropical activity, raging STJ, and a warm area just off west coast (PDO). Theoretically, this should be one of the most active winters QPF wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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