Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[mitchnick]

That's because the phase speed of an oceanic kelvin wave generated by a WWB is on the order of 1 m/s. It takes a couple of weeks before you really start to notice and 4-6 weeks to cross the pacific (at a minimum). That being said, there definitely has been a response in the thermocline in the last week.

WWBs that occur further east are also never as strong (half or less), but no less important. Outright westerlies in '97 never progressed further than 140W, but it was the huge, progressive WWBs in October of that year that sealed the deal on a record event. It interfered constructively with an EKW already "in flight" and allowed the warm pool to bulge eastward. The same could happen here, though perhaps not quite to the same extent.

In the current event, a nice westerly anomaly event centered over 160W would be sufficient move that bulge of very warm water between 180-140W on eastward. Really, just a collapse of the trades would do it. You don't need strong outright westerlies at that longitude.

The original poster has been warning of unprecedented warming for the past 2+ months and since the world has neither ended nor has the earth's rotation changed, my point was to keep things in perspective. Like the Euro going for a 3.2c in Enso 3.4, but still a winter seasonal forecast with plenty of potential.

[csnavywx]

The original poster has been warning of unprecedented warming for the past 2+ months and since the world has neither ended nor has the earth's rotation changed, my point was to keep things in perspective. Like the Euro going for a 3.2c in Enso 3.4, but still a winter seasonal forecast with plenty of potential.

That's fine, but if one was to be concerned about ENSO evolution and how it affects one's winter, since it takes a good month or two for WWBs to have strong effects at the surface (and by conjunction... eventually the atmosphere), one might be a liiittle more concerned about events over the next few weeks than "not worried about it".

[PB GFI]

It's going to be very hard to just propagate the forcing so far away from the dateline, it's modeled ad nauseum to stay put.

Secondly the entire basin began to heat up back in July and with it went the original idea of an event similar to 97.
So the east based NINO idea diminished ( dead was too harsh ) . 
This is a basin wide event and it's forcing matters. R1.2 may tick up again , but so should 3 and 3.4 .

The evolution of this NINO the EPO warmth and the DL forcing are different than 97 to look so I am not looking for that kind of repeat.

There is overwhelming guidance that points to decent season ( all but 1 model ) pulls the GAO far enough west so the ridge is west of Hudson Bay come J -M.

This winter is not only going to hinge on this KW. There is so much going on around it and ALL but 1 seasonal model see it .

[Ginx snewx]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[csnavywx]

It's going to be very hard to just propagate the forcing so far away from the dateline, it's modeled ad nauseum to stay put.

Secondly the entire basin began to heat up back in July and with it went the original idea of an event similar to 97.

So the east based NINO idea diminished ( dead was too harsh ) . 

This is a basin wide event and it's forcing matters. R1.2 may tick up again , but so should 3 and 3.4 .

The evolution of this NINO the EPO warmth and the DL forcing are different than 97 to look so I am not looking for that kind of repeat.

There is overwhelming guidance that points to decent season ( all but 1 model ) pulls the GAO far enough west so the ridge is west of Hudson Bay come J -M.

This winter is not only going to hinge on this KW. There is so much going on around it and ALL but 1 seasonal model see it .

And I just explained how the warm pool could propagate and take the forcing east with it. Maybe not terribly far, but enough to make a difference. The second sentence is a bit of a canard. Models are a tool. It's easy for them to be consistently wrong too, as this past September's verification scores should more than point out. They're great for getting you into the ballpark at the ranges we're talking about, but will nearly always miss some critical details this far out.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The models show a complete collapse of the trades over the Eastern enso regions.

While there is already the ongoing major wwb further west.

[PB GFI]

And I just explained how the warm pool could propagate and take the forcing east with it. Maybe not terribly far, but enough to make a difference. The second sentence is a bit of a canard. Models are a tool. It's easy for them to be consistently wrong too, as this past September's verification scores should more than point out. They're great for getting you into the ballpark at the ranges we're talking about, but will nearly always miss some critical details this far out.

 

Verification where ? In a specific region ?   I am looking at the event in it`s totality . The core of the warmth is west of 100 , the forcing is near the DL the entire set up in the EPO region is showing you where the NEG sets up this winter .

 

There is too much concern about the : non modeled possibility " that 1 region could warm and how  that`s going to negate the bigger surrounding drivers .

 

I disagree here . 

[The_Global_Warmer]

And I just explained how the warm pool could propagate and take the forcing east with it. Maybe not terribly far, but enough to make a difference. The second sentence is a bit of a canard. Models are a tool. It's easy for them to be consistently wrong too, as this past September's verification scores should more than point out. They're great for getting you into the ballpark at the ranges we're talking about, but will nearly always miss some critical details this far out.

The warm pool is on the move.

[PB GFI]

There have been 2 Kelvin waves since June and it has given you this , but the 3rd is going to shift this all east ? 

Sorry I / the guidance don`t see it ..... 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

30SEP2015 2.8 2.8 2.4 1.1

07OCT2015 2.7 2.8 2.4 1.0

[ClicheVortex2014]

There have been 2 Kelvin waves since June and it has given you this , but the 3rd is going to shift this all east ? 

Sorry I / the guidance don`t see it ..... 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

30SEP2015 2.8 2.8 2.4 1.1

07OCT2015 2.7 2.8 2.4 1.0

The models have poorly handled the Kelvin waves over the past few months. I wouldn't expect it to be different this time. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

With regard to the past 2 Kelvin waves... keep in mind we did have an east-based Nino for 3 months (early May-early August). The way I think of the reason why we saw the warmth spread west (early August-late September (ongoing?)) is because there was no major WWBs in August from what I remember. We should see Nino 1+2 cool because no Kelvin waves were produced in August, which would surface in the next couple weeks. This may be common sense to most here... but it's not yet to me.

 

Now the late September/early October WWB... the initial impacts of it barely dented the western regions... but if it created a Kelvin wave (I don't know), we'll see it in the eastern regions in a couple months... then eventually movie west 

[PB GFI]

With regard to the past 2 Kelvin waves... keep in mind we did have an east-based Nino for 3 months (early May-early August).  ??? The way I think of the reason why we saw the warmth spread west (early August-late September (ongoing?)) is because there was no major WWBs in August from what I remember. We should see Nino 1+2 cool because no Kelvin waves were produced in August, which would surface in the next couple weeks. This may be common sense to most here... but it's not yet to me.

 

Now the late September/early October WWB... the initial impacts of it barely dented the western regions... but if it created a Kelvin wave (I don't know), we'll see it in the eastern regions in a couple months... then eventually movie west 

 

Your timing of  the events are  off , there have been 2 KW the 1st in one began June  and the second in August . You stated  in an earlier post / and I agree  that a KW could take up to 2 months to cross the basin .

So here is what you guys are missing and I am just not sure how and why .

 

The 1st Kelvin wave began in June so its effects should have shown up by late July  the second KW began in August and its effects should have shown up by late Sept .

 

We have been in a basin wide  NINO since JULY .  So as the 2 KWs propagated EAST in the basin  the entire warm field was expanding WEST. 

 

So why is this time going to be different ?  Why did the  heat in the entire basin spread west at the very same time 2 KW spread east? 

Why would anyone in the absence of guidance and after witnessing the basins response to 2 KW buy a breakout east of the warm pool along with it`s forcing .

 

This NINO spread WEST in June and R4 sits at record levels for the date . I have to say wishcasting is usually relegated to snowstorms around here so this is the boards first . 

 

 

 

And  finally during all this time , where did the forcing end up ?  

 

Enjoy your day . 

 

[PB GFI]

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for

 

20MAY2015 26.6 2.6  28.2 1.2  28.9 1.1    29.8 1.1
27MAY2015 26.3 2.6  28.2 1.4  29.0 1.3    29.9 1.1
03JUN2015 25.3 1.9   28.1 1.4  29.0 1.2    30.0 1.2  KW 1 begins ? 
10JUN2015 25.7 2.6   28.1 1.5  29.0 1.3    29.9 1.1

17JUN2015 25.4  2.7   28.2 1.8  29.0 1.4   29.9 1.1
24JUN2015 25.1  2.6   28.1 1.9  28.9 1.4   29.9 1.1
01JUL2015 24.9  2.7   28.0 2.0  28.9 1.4  29.8 1.0 we go basin wide 
08JUL2015 25.2  3.3   27.9 2.1   28.8 1.5   29.9 1.1 KW 1 peak ?  Forcing at 160W  
15JUL2015 24.6  2.9   27.9 2.3   28.9 1.7   29.8 1.0  
22JUL2015 23.7  2.3   27.6 2.1   28.8 1.6   29.8 1.0
29JUL2015 23.9  2.7   27.4 2.1   28.8 1.7   29.7 1.0
05AUG2015 23.6 2.6  27.6 2.3   28.9 1.9   29.6 0.9
12AUG2015 22.8 2.0  27.3 2.2  28.9 2.0    29.6 0.9 KW 2 begins ? 
19AUG2015 22.4 1.7  27.2 2.2  28.9 2.1    29.7 1.1
26AUG2015 22.6 2.0  27.3 2.3  29.0 2.2    29.7 1.1
02SEP2015 22.7 2.2  27.3 2.4   28.9 2.1    29.7 1.0
09SEP2015 22.5 2.0  27.4 2.6   29.0 2.3    29.7 1.0
16SEP2015 23.0 2.6  27.6 2.7   29.0 2.3    29.8 1.1
23SEP2015 23.2 2.7  27.5 2.6   29.0 2.3    29.8 1.1
30SEP2015 23.4 2.8  27.6 2.8   29.1 2.4    29.7 1.1 KW peak 2 ?  DL forcing / 180W
07OCT2015 23.4 2.7 27.7 2.8   29.1 2.4    29.7 1.0

[bluewave]

The ridge over Alaska and NW Canada is standing its ground against the Aleutian Low

instead of getting steam rolled like October 1997. That seems to be the common 

theme of the models that keep the Aleutian Low further west in the winter

and downstream ridge west of Hudson Bay. In 9 out of 11 moderate and 

strong El Nino years there was a relationship between the October NE PAC

pattern and the winter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[alwaysready126]

The ridge over Alaska and NW Canada is standing its ground against the Aleutian Low

instead of getting steam rolled like October 1997. That seems to be the common 

theme of the models that keep the Aleutian Low further west in the winter

and downstream ridge west of Hudson Bay. In 9 out of 11 moderate and 

strong El Nino years there was a relationship between the October NE PAC

pattern and the winter.

 

 

2015.gif

 

97.gif

to my untrained eye, it seems it would do us some good if it gave up just a little ground, no?

[ORH_wxman]

With regard to the past 2 Kelvin waves... keep in mind we did have an east-based Nino for 3 months (early May-early August). The way I think of the reason why we saw the warmth spread west (early August-late September (ongoing?)) is because there was no major WWBs in August from what I remember. We should see Nino 1+2 cool because no Kelvin waves were produced in August, which would surface in the next couple weeks. This may be common sense to most here... but it's not yet to me.

 

Now the late September/early October WWB... the initial impacts of it barely dented the western regions... but if it created a Kelvin wave (I don't know), we'll see it in the eastern regions in a couple months... then eventually movie west

 

 

If it takes a couple months to show up in region 1+2...then it is basically irrelevant to the winter by that point. That would be in December. It might affect the very end of winter given the typical lag.  

 

What is happening now and the next 3-5 weeks is what matters.

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

One thing that I haven't seen mentioned is the anomalously warm water off the S. CA coast. It was there for the winter of 13/14 and we know how things went that year, though there was no NINO present. It is starting to look pretty impressive and it's got to be good for at least extra juice in the STJ.

 

[packbacker]

One thing that I haven't seen mentioned is the anomalously warm water off the S. CA coast. It was there for the winter of 13/14 and we know how things went that year, though there was no NINO present. It is starting to look pretty impressive and it's got to be good for at least extra juice in the STJ.

 

86/87 was the only analog I could find with similar anomalies SW of Cali. Also, 87 was ++PDO like this winter will be, most likely.

[PB GFI]

86/87 was the only analog I could find with similar anomalies SW of Cali. Also, 87 was ++PDO like this winter will be, most likely.

97/98 09/10 look closer . 

[forkyfork]

the ncep/narr reanalysis page i use doesn't have an option for sst's... where do you guys get them?

this is what i use: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/hour/

[packbacker]

97/98 09/10 look closer . 

 

I looked at it from a perspective, if the anomalies hold to winter, which winter was a good match, then 87 looks best....I guess someone could argue that the GOA cools and so does the blob SW of Cali, and it may but it's not flipping cool and +PDO is highly likely like 87.

[packbacker]

the ncep/narr reanalysis page i use doesn't have an option for sst's... where do you guys get them?

this is what i use: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/hour/

 

I use this one to build the plots above...

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/printpage.pl

 

or this one for post 1950 which is ERSSTv4...

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

[csnavywx]

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for

 

20MAY2015 26.6 2.6  28.2 1.2  28.9 1.1    29.8 1.1

27MAY2015 26.3 2.6  28.2 1.4  29.0 1.3    29.9 1.1

03JUN2015 25.3 1.9   28.1 1.4  29.0 1.2    30.0 1.2  KW 1 begins ? 

10JUN2015 25.7 2.6   28.1 1.5  29.0 1.3    29.9 1.1

17JUN2015 25.4  2.7   28.2 1.8  29.0 1.4   29.9 1.1

24JUN2015 25.1  2.6   28.1 1.9  28.9 1.4   29.9 1.1

01JUL2015 24.9  2.7   28.0 2.0  28.9 1.4  29.8 1.0 we go basin wide 

08JUL2015 25.2  3.3   27.9 2.1   28.8 1.5   29.9 1.1 KW 1 peak ?  Forcing at 160W  

15JUL2015 24.6  2.9   27.9 2.3   28.9 1.7   29.8 1.0  

22JUL2015 23.7  2.3   27.6 2.1   28.8 1.6   29.8 1.0

29JUL2015 23.9  2.7   27.4 2.1   28.8 1.7   29.7 1.0

05AUG2015 23.6 2.6  27.6 2.3   28.9 1.9   29.6 0.9

12AUG2015 22.8 2.0  27.3 2.2  28.9 2.0    29.6 0.9 KW 2 begins ? 

19AUG2015 22.4 1.7  27.2 2.2  28.9 2.1    29.7 1.1

26AUG2015 22.6 2.0  27.3 2.3  29.0 2.2    29.7 1.1

02SEP2015 22.7 2.2  27.3 2.4   28.9 2.1    29.7 1.0

09SEP2015 22.5 2.0  27.4 2.6   29.0 2.3    29.7 1.0

16SEP2015 23.0 2.6  27.6 2.7   29.0 2.3    29.8 1.1

23SEP2015 23.2 2.7  27.5 2.6   29.0 2.3    29.8 1.1

30SEP2015 23.4 2.8  27.6 2.8   29.1 2.4    29.7 1.1 KW peak 2 ?  DL forcing / 180W

07OCT2015 23.4 2.7 27.7 2.8   29.1 2.4    29.7 1.0

Much better look at EKWs:

 

 

EKWs were generated in March, May, early July and one is building right now. The phase speed from the early July EKW was interfered with by the flip of the Walker Cell into its El Nino configuration and the standing wave that resulted. The cooling of 1+2 during August that everyone was excited about was really just a weak upwelling EKW phase due to the gap in June and a temporary recovery of the trades that was long enough to help generate it. We could opine that since we have another EKW now "in flight", that we'll see another dip in 1+2 before it rises again. We didn't see the dip in '97 mostly because there was no month+ long gap between the summer EKWs before the Walker Cell flipped.

[SnoSki14]

From those anomaly maps this year looks a lot like 97/98 just not quite as extreme in the 1+2 region and more extreme off the SW coast.

[csnavywx]

If it takes a couple months to show up in region 1+2...then it is basically irrelevant to the winter by that point. That would be in December. It might affect the very end of winter given the typical lag.  

 

What is happening now and the next 3-5 weeks is what matters.

There was a big run of westerlies in Oct. '97 and one could argue that it had a big impact on that winter, at least in terms of ENSO forcing.

[JoMo]

No perfect match with Pacific SST's currently. 2014 matches decently well with much of the Pacific as far as +/- anomaly location, but not in strength of the anomalies. 

[PB GFI]

Much better look at EKWs:

 

 

EKWs were generated in March, May, early July and one is building right now. The phase speed from the early July EKW was interfered with by the flip of the Walker Cell into its El Nino configuration and the standing wave that resulted. The cooling of 1+2 during August that everyone was excited about was really just a weak upwelling EKW phase due to the gap in June and a temporary recovery of the trades that was long enough to help generate it. We could opine that since we have another EKW now "in flight", that we'll see another dip in 1+2 before it rises again. We didn't see the dip in '97 mostly because there was no month+ long gap between the summer EKWs before the Walker Cell flipped.

And by the time we spike after we dip will it be too late or matter .

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

The Downwelling phases of a Kelvin wave were observed in March-April ( Missed the 1st one but the basin climbed in the response as well  ) , mid-May to late June, and July to August. During August and September, positive subsurface temperature anomalies slowly shifted eastward. There is recent evidence of another downwelling Kelvin wave, initiated in early October.

 

My point is during this entire time , in addition to 1.2 increasing the rest of the basin did while the forcing never came east . 

 

The forcing has been pinned at the D/L since May and I believe it does not come that far east in N-D. In 97 we were already forcing east of where we are now .  

 

We can agree to disagree here . 

[Isotherm]

Much better look at EKWs:

 

 

EKWs were generated in March, May, early July and one is building right now. The phase speed from the early July EKW was interfered with by the flip of the Walker Cell into its El Nino configuration and the standing wave that resulted. The cooling of 1+2 during August that everyone was excited about was really just a weak upwelling EKW phase due to the gap in June and a temporary recovery of the trades that was long enough to help generate it. We could opine that since we have another EKW now "in flight", that we'll see another dip in 1+2 before it rises again. We didn't see the dip in '97 mostly because there was no month+ long gap between the summer EKWs before the Walker Cell flipped.

 

 

It's important to note; however, that downwelling kelvin waves can often induce an eastward shift of the subsurface warm pool, but don't necessarily need to manifest as warming at the surface. And if they do manifest at the surface, the extent to which SST's increase as a consequence of the KW is questionable. Once the KW reaches the eastern tropical Pacific, any surface warming might be inconsequential insofar as the overall peak magnitude of the ENSO event.

 

It's also crucial to note that the vast majority of previous ++ENSO events, barring 82-83 / 97-98, gradually became less east based by November and December:

 

Is there a possibility that the orientation of this event ends up similar to 82-83 or 97-98? Yes, there still exists that possibility; however, there are no indications that central regions will be significantly cooling over the coming weeks while eastern regions concurrently warm substantially.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

If it takes a couple months to show up in region 1+2...then it is basically irrelevant to the winter by that point. That would be in December. It might affect the very end of winter given the typical lag.  

 

What is happening now and the next 3-5 weeks is what matters.

 

I agree. Most of us agree on how this winter will start though. The big issue is how it'll end. 

 

Your timing of  the events are  off , there have been 2 KW the 1st in one began June  and the second in August . You stated  in an earlier post / and I agree  that a KW could take up to 2 months to cross the basin .

So here is what you guys are missing and I am just not sure how and why .

 

The 1st Kelvin wave began in June so its effects should have shown up by late July  the second KW began in August and its effects should have shown up by late Sept .

 

We have been in a basin wide  NINO since JULY .  So as the 2 KWs propagated EAST in the basin  the entire warm field was expanding WEST. 

 

So why is this time going to be different ?  Why did the  heat in the entire basin spread west at the very same time 2 KW spread east? 

Why would anyone in the absence of guidance and after witnessing the basins response to 2 KW buy a breakout east of the warm pool along with it`s forcing .

 

This NINO spread WEST in June and R4 sits at record levels for the date . I have to say wishcasting is usually relegated to snowstorms around here so this is the boards first . 

 

 

 

And  finally during all this time , where did the forcing end up ?  

 

Enjoy your day . 

 

I don't disagree with anything you said. I thought you were implying that the models are correct in saying that Nino 1+2 isn't going to warm as a result of the Kelvin wave generated by recent WWB. My bad. I don't appreciate how you're so quick to accuse me of wishcasting, though, because you think I like warm winters (not true).

[PB GFI]

I agree. Most of us agree on how this winter will start though. The big issue is how it'll end. If Nino 1+2 spikes in late November/early December, it's going to spread west... creating a Nino 3 and 3.4 spike well into December. That should play a role in the end of the winter, no?

I don't disagree with anything you said. I thought you were implying that the models are correct in saying that Nino 1+2 isn't going to warm as a result of the Kelvin wave generated by recent WWB. My bad. I don't appreciate how you're so quick to accuse me of wishcasting, though, because you think I like warm winters (not true).

The wishcasting wasn`t aimed at you , there are some relentless east base posters here who if they like warm winters they should come back next year I think they will b happy.

This year looks more like 09/10 57/58 to me than 97/98.

I just can't see how 3 KW resulting in D/L forcing will move it east with the 4th

The argument I am seeing is well it spread east in 97 . However the forcing was further east in 97 than where it is now and some are conflating the 2.

They are starting from different points in the PAC and since I have seen 3 KW so far have no effect on the forcing if this 4th pulls it east it will b slight and will have minimal impact if it does.