PB GFI Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Too bad R 4 cooled at tad, too. Still a record for the time of year . Just waiting the updated OLR Through last week we looked like this . The look below shows the lack of east based forcing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I'll be waiting for next weeks readings. If there are no increases in any region, then this event has officially peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Pulled from away , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I went 1.8C in July, but have been nervous that I may end up a bit low... I would be surprised if we see a trimonthly peak > 2.0c. I think 2.0c (akin to 1972-73) is the upper end of the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Still a record for the time of year . Just waiting the updated OLR Through last week we looked like this . The look below shows the lack of east based forcing . I like utilizing the following images; those are not terribly recent: Tropical convective forcing has generally congregated around 160-180W over the past week [continued conducive forcing overall]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I like utilizing the following images; those are not terribly recent: Tropical convective forcing has generally congregated around 160-180W over the past week [continued conducive forcing overall]. Thank you Tom. Its just a running mean . So I just use it to see the evolution . Both maps tell the same story . D/L is where it`s at . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Thank you Tom. Its just a running mean . So I just use it to see the evolution . Both maps tell the same story . D/L is where it`s at . Paul - agree. The primary takeaway is that the forcing has been / is running west of years like 1997 which featured more region 3 forcing [rather than 4/3.4]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I hear the UK seasonal model came out and it's pretty identical to the European Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I hear the UK seasonal model came out and it's pretty identical to the European Yep. Very close to the Euro as it keeps the Aleutian Low further west so the downstream ridge is focused west of Hudson Bay. Also similar to the SST CA. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Yep. Very close to the Euro as it keeps the Aleutian Low further west so the downstream ridge is focused west of Hudson Bay. Also similar to the SST CA. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean 2cat_20151001_z500_months35_global_deter_public.png You beat me by a min lol can`t teach speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 That has some look to it...ha... CPC is right there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 No one sees an all out torch , well almost everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Paul - agree. The primary takeaway is that the forcing has been / is running west of years like 1997 which featured more region 3 forcing [rather than 4/3.4]. Where was forcing in 2003 and 2010? West of 180*? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Where was forcing in 2003 and 2010? West of 180*? In 2/10, it was just east of the DL, which I recall Wes (Usetobe) said is best for the MA. Obviously, you might disagree. lol But no 2 years are ever alike, fortunately...or unfortunately, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 In 2/10, it was just east of the DL, which I recall Wes (Usetobe) said is best for the MA. Obviously, you might disagree. lol But no 2 years are ever alike, fortunately...or unfortunately, I guess. Nah, I'm well enough versed in the science to understand that we must outlook this on a macro level. The micro analysis is best left for the medium, and especially the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Where was forcing in 2003 and 2010? West of 180*? In the Octobers preceding those winters, 2002 was centered around 160W while 2009 was slightly west of the dateline: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 In 2/10, it was just east of the DL, which I recall Wes (Usetobe) said is best for the MA. Obviously, you might disagree. lol But no 2 years are ever alike, fortunately...or unfortunately, I guess. The DJF forcing was very favorable in both of the aforementioned years: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 The Roundy OLR plots going forward indicate the maintenance of convection predominately in regions 3.4 and region 4 through the end of October: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 In the Octobers preceding those winters, 2002 was centered around 160W while 2009 was slightly west of the dateline: Wow...on par with 2002. Interesting. Could I trouble you for '86 and '57? I should probably ask for the link, too, so that I don't have to trouble folks like you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I'm getting perilously close to $hit-canning my December punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Wow...on par with 2002. Interesting. Could I trouble you for '86 and '57? I should probably ask for the link, too, so that I don't have to trouble folks like you Here's the link - cool site to play around with: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl 1957 was fairly far east [160-140W] while 1986 was near the dateline for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Wow. The forcing is def. more west based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 The current wwb near the datine has continued to help reinforce the warmth further East Subsurface wise. The next WWB is modeled to set up literally over enso 1-3. This will easily cause major warming up to the SA coast with enso 4 cooling. It already looks like enso 4 has started to cool a bit. Subsurface OHC is primed for an East based super Nino with the right WWB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Both 1.2 and 4 cooled this week . Both by .1 , however 4 is still at record levels for this date . However this basin wide event should continue to strengthen through the rest of October . Thankfully for winters purpose this is not an east based NINO , we dodged that bullet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I wonder if there is even a precedent for forcing to move eastward as winter approaches... i know it doesn't during he winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 The current wwb near the datine has continued to help reinforce the warmth further East Subsurface wise. The next WWB is modeled to set up literally over enso 1-3. This will easily cause major warming up to the SA coast with enso 4 cooling. It already looks like enso 4 has started to cool a bit. Subsurface OHC is primed for an East based super Nino with the right WWB. When I look at the 850 anomalies map and see how little Enso ssta moved this past week in response to the strong wwb, I'm not very concerned with the further east progged wwb that's no where near as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 When I look at the 850 anomalies map and see how little Enso ssta moved this past week in response to the strong wwb, I'm not very concerned with the further east progged wwb that's no where near as strong.It should be devastating to next July's Arctic sea ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 When I look at the 850 anomalies map and see how little Enso ssta moved this past week in response to the strong wwb, I'm not very concerned with the further east progged wwb that's no where near as strong. There's a ~2 month lag between a WWB event and the eastern regions warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 When I look at the 850 anomalies map and see how little Enso ssta moved this past week in response to the strong wwb, I'm not very concerned with the further east progged wwb that's no where near as strong. That's because the phase speed of an oceanic kelvin wave generated by a WWB is on the order of 1 m/s. It takes a couple of weeks before you really start to notice and 4-6 weeks to cross the pacific (at a minimum). That being said, there definitely has been a response in the thermocline in the last week. WWBs that occur further east are also never as strong (half or less), but no less important. Outright westerlies in '97 never progressed further than 140W, but it was the huge, progressive WWBs in October of that year that sealed the deal on a record event. It interfered constructively with an EKW already "in flight" and allowed the warm pool to bulge eastward. The same could happen here, though perhaps not quite to the same extent. In the current event, a nice westerly anomaly event centered over 160W would be sufficient move that bulge of very warm water between 180-140W on eastward. Really, just a collapse of the trades would do it. You don't need strong outright westerlies at that longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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