PB GFI Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 And you end up with this @ 2M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 we are still bullish on this winter with one of the strongest el nino's in years...If it was a strong La nina I would expect a dud winter...The strongest eight la nina winters with an oni -1.3 or below for DJF yielded an average of 14.5" of snow for the winter and no storms over 6.4" and 23.5" for the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 The CFS loves to push the trough too far east over the NE PAC like we are seeing this month and last winter. cfs_anom_z500_noram_201510_4.png What an awful forecast from 2 weeks away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Hmmmm. Although I think Dec could look like that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 CFS is the NAM of long range. A terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 The CFS loves to push the trough too far east over the NE PAC like we are seeing this month and last winter. cfs_anom_z500_noram_201510_4.png The mid-month forecasts aren't very good. Its skill gets better from there on. What an awful forecast from 2 weeks away . That's for the whole month of October... so that's a 2-6 week forecast. CFS eventually caught on to the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 The mid-month forecasts aren't very good. Its skill gets better from there on. That's for the whole month of October... so that's a 2-6 week forecast. CFS eventually caught on to the right idea. You want to credit a seasonal climate model for "catching on " from 5 days out on a monthly ? There are guys basing their ideas of what this model is seeing 3 to 5 months from now . The fact that it needs to press it's nose up against the glass to see a pattern gives me pause when having to buy what it sees from a distance. If it can't see 3 weeks it can't see 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 You have to wonder what the secret sauce is in other models like the JAMSTEC..JMA...ECMWF that the CFS lacks. usT2mSeaInd2.gif temp2.glob.DJF2015.1nov2014.gif At least it's consistent lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 11, 2015 Author Share Posted October 11, 2015 I'll wait until the 1st week of November to make a final judgement, but up until this point, given the strengthening super El Niño, the Nino region SST progression, the Nino model forecast plumes and the strongly coupled atmospheric response which is projected by Dr.Ventrice's AEI to get even stronger by the end of this month into November, I see no reason whatsoever not to expect a classic strong canonical El Nino weather pattern this winter and into early spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 I'll wait until the 1st week of November to make a final judgement, but up until this point, given the strengthening super El Niño, the Nino region SST progression, the Nino model forecast plumes and the strongly coupled atmospheric response which is projected by Dr.Ventrice's AEI to get even stronger by the end of this month into November, I see no reason whatsoever not to expect a classic strong canonical El Nino weather pattern this winter and into early spring77/78 is in there. Where can I sign .Serious question , what are you looking for in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 You want to credit a seasonal climate model for "catching on " from 5 days out on a monthly ? There are guys basing their ideas of what this model is seeing 3 to 5 months from now . The fact that it needs to press it's nose up against the glass to see a pattern gives me pause when having to buy what it sees from a distance. If it can't see 3 weeks it can't see 3 months. It's looking at the temps for the entire month of October. In today's world, any forecast beyond 5 days is generally inaccurate. If a model is able to correctly pick up on the general pattern for the next month, I'll give it credit. But CFS is the only model that does seasonal, monthly, and weekly outlooks that I'm aware of. I've said it many times... the seasonal forecasts are usually bad... but these monthly forecasts (like I posted) are reasonably good in the second half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 The skill is at 500 and it can't pick it up outside 2 weeks It's seems fast in the EP with its trough placement so it shunts the ridge over the CONUS in the LR. It has been beaten at 500 by the euro the last 2 years and the jamstec at 2m . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 You can go back and see CFS's monthly forecasts for previous months and see that it does reasonably well with picking up on the general pattern for the next month. I don't have access to Euro monthly, and JAMSTEC doesn't do individual months... only seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Did you help program the CFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Did you help program the CFS? I wish I was smart enough to program a weekly/monthly/seasonal model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 I wish I was smart enough to program a weekly/monthly/seasonal model. LOL You love that model. JK At least you provide empirical evidence and employ critical thinking in formulating a rebuttal. Can't say the same for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 LOL You love that model. JK At least you provide empirical evidence and employ critical thinking in formulating a rebuttal. Can't say the same for others. Haha I just like to give credit where it's due... that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 I have observed the CFS from month to month and it is correct that it 'usually' has a fair grasp on coming 30 days at the end of a prior month. From my observation over the years, I tend to rank the seasonal models as follows, in order of decreasing accuracy: ECMWF, JAMSTEC, JMA, CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Agree ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I have observed the CFS from month to month and it is correct that it 'usually' has a fair grasp on coming 30 days at the end of a prior month. From my observation over the years, I tend to rank the seasonal models as follows, in order of decreasing accuracy: ECMWF, JAMSTEC, JMA, CFS. I only have access to CFS and JAMSTEC... so I can't say anything about the others. JAMSTEC doesn't do monthly forecasts though (which would be awesome) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I only have access to CFS and JAMSTEC... so I can't say anything about the others. JAMSTEC doesn't do monthly forecasts though (which would be awesome) Here's the JMA. It did pretty well last year. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Here's the JMA. It did pretty well last year. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Thanks for the link! It's not as straight-forward/user friendly as the others but I'll figure it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Fairly steady state over the last week as we reach the trailing portion of the recent kelvin wave. All regions were warmer on this week in 1997 except Nino 4. 30SEP2015 2.8 2.8 2.4 1.107OCT2015 2.7 2.8 2.4 1.0 08OCT1997 3.8 3.2 2.6 0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Fairly steady state over the last week as we reach the trailing portion of the recent kelvin wave. All regions were warmer on this week in 1997 except Nino 4. 30SEP2015 2.8 2.8 2.4 1.1 07OCT2015 2.7 2.8 2.4 1.0 08OCT1997 3.8 3.2 2.6 0.6 Waaaaaaaat? 1.2 lower ? All that screaming about wind reversals , Kelvin waves and explosive warmth recently . Hmm , what a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Waaaaaaaat? 1.2 lower ? All that screaming about wind reversals , Kelvin waves and explosive warmth recently . Hmm , what a bummer. The IRI dynamical model mean is doing a good job so far. The weekly Nino 3.4 reading of +2.4C is right where it was forecast to be in October. .............................................SON Average, dynamical models .....2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2 1.8 1.5 1 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Waaaaaaaat? 1.2 lower ? All that screaming about wind reversals , Kelvin waves and explosive warmth recently . Hmm , what a bummer. Please Paul. Don't get him started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 The IRI dynamical model mean is doing a good job so far. The weekly Nino 3.4 reading of +2.4C is right where it was forecast to be in October. .............................................SON Average, dynamical models .....2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2 1.8 1.5 1 0. In terms of official ONI trimonthly numbers, my thinking continues to be that the 82-83/97-98 events are slightly stronger, and the 57-58/65-66 events are slightly weaker. My target range has been approximately 1.8-1.95C for the trimonthly peak, and I still like that for now. We'll probably end up closest to 65-66 or 72-73 in terms of the official ONI peak. We need to be stronger in the eastern regions in order to have a chance at attaining the record breaking Nino's (82/97). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Please Paul. Don't get him started. Lol . That was aimed at him . He can take it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 In terms of official ONI trimonthly numbers, my thinking continues to be that the 82-83/97-98 events are slightly stronger, and the 57-58/65-66 events are slightly weaker. My target range has been approximately 1.8-1.95C for the trimonthly peak, and I still like that for now. We'll probably end up closest to 65-66 or 72-73 in terms of the official ONI peak. We need to be stronger in the eastern regions in order to have a chance at attaining the record breaking Nino's (82/97). I went 1.8C in July, but have been nervous that I may end up a bit low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Waaaaaaaat? 1.2 lower ? All that screaming about wind reversals , Kelvin waves and explosive warmth recently . Hmm , what a bummer. Too bad R 4 cooled at tad, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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