dmillz25 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Ian is saying the EURO monthlies suck. It's warm but the low stays near the Aluetians so it's not too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 From ORH in the NE forum That's pretty good for January-onward. February looks excellent, it flips the NAO negative that month with a beast Aleutian low in a good spot. Ditto March. Hopefully it is fairly accurate. Esp with the Aleutian low placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 It's warm but the low stays near the Aluetians so it's not too bad Yea, I just went off of preliminary, vague analysis. Saw it......little rough in Dec, gets much, much better....like last year did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 From ORH in the NE forum That's pretty good for January-onward. February looks excellent, it flips the NAO negative that month with a beast Aleutian low in a good spot. Ditto March. Hopefully it is fairly accurate. Esp with the Aleutian low placement. Looks like the standard El Nino monthly Aleutian Low retrogression that the Euro is showing. The updated NMME has a similar look. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/NMMEz200.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 The anomalies W of California and Mexico are nuts. No where can the polar or subtropical jets not cross a big time anomaly before hitting NA Which means pwats will likely be above normal with any decent system coming off the epac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Yea, I just went off of preliminary, vague analysis. Saw it......little rough in Dec, gets much, much better....like last year did. I think you and I both opined that we didn`t like D. That`s why my original post alluded to J- M I think Dec stinks, the Euro agrees . But J - M are really fine . A deep neg where you want it , big PNA with a trough in the SE . The pos is centered on the west shores of HB . It is a good look at 500 . I cant post the Euro , but this is really close to the Euro J-M 3 month 500 mb . The Euro positive on HB is actually a tick west of the NMME , but a pretty good match non the less . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I think you and I both opined that we didn`t like D I also agree with this assessment. I see little reason right now not to expect a warm to possibly very warm December, on average. The evolution of the ENSO still looks on track for more wintry conditions afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 The majority of we in the NE forum are not at all sold on a -AO/NAO, so you are wrong about us. The overwhelming majority would have cancelled winter already, myself included. I'm saying if we were seeing a Nino with forcing further east and the circumstance is the same as this year regarding the AO/NAO, some would be hanging on to the prospect -AO/-NAO bringing a good winter despite a +++++EPO. 1957-58 would be brought up a lot, and for a good reason. But you're playing with fire when you have a massive GOA trough... more often than not, you lose. I know there's people that know better than to hope a -AO/-NAO will save the season when you have that kind of Nino forcing... but I doubt everyone, or even the overwhelming majority, would cancel the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/652222307285528576 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Cmon guys. Leave the predictions on how people might post based on atmospheric conditions in the banter threads please. We arent in this thread to discuss subforums or their posters...this is probably one of the best threads we've had in this subforum in a real long time, and everyone in it has contributed (except me, this stuff is way over my head). Keep it going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 I will feel really good if in three weeks we have a nice looking OCT H5 composite, and a fairly high SAI..... I would add OPI, but if the first two are favorable, then the OPI is very likely to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 Very powerful WWB continuing, it has pushed all the way to 120W with strong westerly winds: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/652485913860304896 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 The 90-day SOI average has now fallen to -18.575. That's the lowest so far during the current El Niño event and the lowest 90-day average since May 15, 1998 when the 90-day average was -19.171. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 The 90-day SOI average has now fallen to -18.575. That's the lowest so far during the current El Niño event and the lowest 90-day average since May 15, 1998 when the 90-day average was -19.171.The SOI is going to continue to be strongly negative. A very +IOD is in progress and will only solidify that and more WWBs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 9 out of 11 years with the moderate or strong El Ninos there was some degree of relationship between October and the winter...sometimes into March. But 63-64 and 91-92 didn't show any similarity between October and the winter. I would disregard '91 because of Pinatubo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Temperature depth anomaly progression indicates some fairly noteworthy subsurface cooling at approximately 80W-100W. There was a fairly expansive area of +6c anomalies near 50m depth; those anomalies have decreased to around +4c over the past week or so w/ some retrogression of the subsurface warm pool. This is probably indicative of the beginning stages of the gradual decline in region 1+2 anomalies which model data projects over the next month. My thinking is that region 1+2 values have likely reached their climax; there should be gradual cooling over the next month, as region 3 / 3.4 / 4 anomalies concurrently maintain their magnitude or warm slightly further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Very powerful WWB continuing, it has pushed all the way to 120W with strong westerly winds: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/652485913860304896 Notice a weak weed wind reversal near SA. Also CFS shows a massive WWB from the date line to epac in mid October on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Temperature depth anomaly progression indicates some fairly noteworthy subsurface cooling at approximately 80W-100W. There was a fairly expansive area of +6c anomalies near 50m depth; those anomalies have decreased to around +4c over the past week or so w/ some retrogression of the subsurface warm pool. This is probably indicative of the beginning stages of the gradual decline in region 1+2 anomalies which model data projects over the next month. My thinking is that region 1+2 values have likely reached their climax; there should be gradual cooling over the next month, as region 3 / 3.4 / 4 anomalies concurrently maintain their magnitude or warm slightly further. Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Doubt it.What are you doubting ? The forecast for , R 4 R 3.4 R 3 R 1.2 That the central basin warming ? The eastern R cooling once into Nov ? There was a lot there .Maybe some will agree but a blanket doubt it Doesn't give one a chance to counter or lend agreement. The entire basin looks to continue to warm. You seem to agree. Is your only argument 1.2 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 What are you doubting ? The forecast for , R 4 R 3.4 R 3 R 1.2 That the central basin warming ? The eastern R cooling once into Nov ? There was a lot there .Maybe some will agree but a blanket doubt it Doesn't give one a chance to counter or lend agreement. The entire basin looks to continue to warm. You seem to agree. Is your only argument 1.2 ? That's my question, do we see it cool once into November? The models missed this latest warming period in 1+2. Regardless, it should continue to warm through the end of this month, the question then becomes what happens in Nov if the models are to be believed this time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 That's my question, do we see it cool once into November? The models missed this latest warming period in 1+2. Regardless, it should continue to warm through the end of this month, the question then becomes what happens in Nov if the models are to be believed this time....I think they ALL warm throughout October. I can see 4. - 3.4 - 3 warning a bit longer than that. The guidance in 1.2 has failed miserably since July . WSI Rossby wave may not exist .( however we still need some time to be sure ). My position has been the entire basin continues to torch , not just 1.2. Ventrice mentions a monster WWB near 180 so from 4 on west that could spread more heat across the basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Doubt it. My post referenced the region 80W-100W. The image you posted only depicts areas as far east as 105-100W. There hasn't been much if any subsurface cooling from 100W westward; it's been confined to the subsurface area immediately adjacent to the South American coast. It's possible that region 1+2 values hold steady over the next 1-2 weeks, but I anticipate that the next 4-5 weeks will feature a gradual decline overall. Conversely, there's little if any indication that the warming in regions 3, 3.4, and 4 has peaked. Those regions will probably maintain their present magnitudes or slightly warm over the next 4-5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 That's my question, do we see it cool once into November? The models missed this latest warming period in 1+2. Regardless, it should continue to warm through the end of this month, the question then becomes what happens in Nov if the models are to be believed this time.... My forecast for ENSO region 1+2 gradual cooling over the next 4-6 weeks isn't contingent upon the behavior of modelling. In terms of physical forcing, this ENSO event to date is most analogous to the evolution of the following years: 1972-73, 1965-66, and 1957-58. Those years featured a significant trend from east-based into the basin wide categorization by the Oct/Nov couplet. This is due to the concurrent warming (cooling) of the central/western (eastern) regions. The following graphic was posted by griteater in the main forum, which depicts the trend in the aforementioned three analog years to basin-wide by the middle-latter portion of the autumn. I expect a similar progression this autumn. Other variables beyond ENSO fluctuations further reinforce my point that 82-83/97-98 are not the best analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Temperature depth anomaly progression indicates some fairly noteworthy subsurface cooling at approximately 80W-100W. There was a fairly expansive area of +6c anomalies near 50m depth; those anomalies have decreased to around +4c over the past week or so w/ some retrogression of the subsurface warm pool. This is probably indicative of the beginning stages of the gradual decline in region 1+2 anomalies which model data projects over the next month. My thinking is that region 1+2 values have likely reached their climax; there should be gradual cooling over the next month, as region 3 / 3.4 / 4 anomalies concurrently maintain their magnitude or warm slightly further. The latest WWB looks significant enough to have generated another EKW, so a westward retrogression of the subsurface pool should continue for quite a while as more warm water pours in. Of potential note is a central Pacific based WWB/trade wind collapse that's been forecasted on the CFS and is now beginning to show up in the GFS and EC (ensembles as well) after d7 or so. If it materializes, that could throw a wrench in the works by causing the surface warm pool to slide eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 cs... can you please post the link to the source of those images? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 http://monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo/v2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 1997 was truly a crazy event. The water in 1+2 and 3 was so ridiculously warm. To simplify the comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 10, 2015 Author Share Posted October 10, 2015 The latest WWB looks significant enough to have generated another EKW, so a westward retrogression of the subsurface pool should continue for quite a while as more warm water pours in. Of potential note is a central Pacific based WWB/trade wind collapse that's been forecasted on the CFS and is now beginning to show up in the GFS and EC (ensembles as well) after d7 or so. If it materializes, that could throw a wrench in the works by causing the surface warm pool to slide eastward. uwnd850.cfs.eqtr.png uwnd850.cfs.all.pacific.7.png This is looking like it may not just be a WWB but a true trade wind reversal over the Nino regions may be taking shape through the end of this month. Either way a kelvin wave is forming which will set off yet another round of warming and probably very significant warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 10, 2015 Author Share Posted October 10, 2015 You don't see this very often, last time was 1997. Total trade wind reversal over the eastern tropical Pacific: https://twitter.com/gustavomerinor/status/652834397436182528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Notice how far west the ridges were in 13/14 and again 14/15 . So when we see that kind of D/L forcing I believe it could pull that GOA far enough west over the warmest anomalies allowing the ridge to set up west of Hudson bay once into Jan ala the Euro Seasonal . It is important for the ridge to be pulled further west than the CFS is showing us . Again not a perfect match to the euro @500 mb , but it is a close enough , look at where the ridge is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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