ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The central basin warming on balance would be the catalyst for more central and west based forcing. I can't say for sure if the Rossby wave idea was wrong , it may be , but we are going to have to wait a bit and see if the east starts to cool before we call WSI wrong. Yeah I agree. I don't know what his standards are for a Modoki. Some define it where Nino 1+2 is cooler than Nino 4... others define it as 1+2 as <0C while the rest of the regions are >0.5C. I can't imagine either case happening this winter. But he's far more experienced than me and he's actually using science (i.e., stuff I don't understand) for his hypothesis, so I'll keep quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 One other thing to keep in mind is the Euro seasonal shows Enso 3.4 peaking > 3C+ and still produces a decent winter for most of the east coast (based on the temp and precip maps.) So I think the angst over upcoming warming in 3 & 3.4 shouldn't be of much concern. I would add, however, that the Euro seasonal updates in 2 days, so hopefully I won't be crying in my weenie Wheaties then!The Euro has been unwavering since the spring that Nino region 3.4 hits over +3.0C, run after run, month after month, it has also shown a consistent December peak as well. I'll go with consistency and say it's right about the ENSO evolution. As far as the actual winter pattern over the CONUS? I'd like to see its seasonal October and November monthly projections verify first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The actual SST's and convection show this pattern very well. A large area of convection is focusing right over those 30C SST's in the Nino 4 region. You can also see a secondary area of 30C SST's near 15N with another area of thunderstorms. pac_oisst_current.png olra-30d.gif I agree Chris. The development is right over the top of the warmer waters. If it sticks and I am not sure why It would not , we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Paul...Check out how close we are right now to the three warmest OND's on record for Nino 4. The OISST v2 SST record for September was +1.04 which we set this year. Record Nino 4 temperatures for OND are not much higher. The three record years for Nino 4 were 2009, 2004, and 2002. Nino 4 record SST departures for OND: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices October 2009...0.99 2004...0.89 November 2009...1.25 2004...0.94 2002...0.90 December 2009...1.18 2002...1.00 2004...0.91 The heat really spread out since June and had found its way west . I would expect the new monthly seasonal guidance to look the same in terms of forcing . ( x the CFS of course ). Which wants to force in the east and not near the D/L . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Nino 4 is only about .1c warmer for Sept than 1997. This is via the official data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 On the weekly and monthly OISSTv2 it's +1.04 now vs +0.62 in September 1997. But the main point is that it's enough of a difference to shift the main convective forcing well west of 1997 at this time. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices OLR.png P.png The official monthly numbers based on the other data set only show a .11c difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 There is a pretty big spread between the OISSTv2 and ERSST v4. I am sticking to the v2 since that is what all the model forecasts and IRI official outlook are calibrated to. From the last official IRI update: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook In the most recent week, the SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region was 2.3 C, reflecting strong El Niño conditions in this weekly time scale, and 2.1 C for the month of August, also at a strong level. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices 2015 8 22.88 2.24 27.33 2.34 29.66 0.98 28.89 2.07 2015 9 22.91 2.57 27.48 2.63 29.73 1.04 29.00 2.28 I don't know if that's a bad approach. I've been using the ERSSTv4, which shows a less impressive ENSO event than the OISSTv2. However, the impacts shown on the MEI and WSI's AEI might argue for use of the earlier tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 The anomalous heat in terms of the subsurface continues to push East. The effects of the current massive WWB are showing up on the 5 day mean. This hasn't even surfaced yet. But the thermocline has continued to flatten over the EPAC. I personally don't care how this shakes out but there is pretty vigorous warming about to get underway along the Western SA coast. Not sure if it's tropical storm or, what but there is a signal continuing to grow for relaxing of the trades literally over enso 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 There is a pretty big spread between the OISSTv2 and ERSST v4. I am sticking to the v2 since that is what all the model forecasts and IRI official outlook are calibrated to. From the last official IRI update: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook In the most recent week, the SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region was 2.3 C, reflecting strong El Niño conditions in this weekly time scale, and 2.1 C for the month of August, also at a strong level. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices 2015 8 22.88 2.24 27.33 2.34 29.66 0.98 28.89 2.07 2015 9 22.91 2.57 27.48 2.63 29.73 1.04 29.00 2.28 Hey man was just catching up and saw some of the above posts .Even if one uses .11C is that not still a record ? Is there a new standard when it came to records , that .11c is not " record enough " Anyway enough about that and back to your argument which I agree with 100 % that the spread west of the heat in the entire basin has been accompanied by the best convection / forcing . So for our purposes it agrees with what some ( ALL BUT 1 ) of the seasonal guidance suggests will be a factor that will limit a repeat of a 97/98 . And may be we are seeing a hint as to where the GOA will set up , Just S of the Aleutians , which is over the top of the greatest AN SST anomalies and NOT as far east as that 1 seasonal model is sticking it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Chris ,where are the 2m Temps to date for the CONUS ? KNYC DPTR FM NORMAL: -2.3 Even with the positive EAST of Hudson bay , we still started the month BN with a - EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Also very apparent is the retrogression throughout the winter even in 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Euro seasonal update J-M . Has not changed . There is still a deep NEG S of the Aleutians with a big POS centered just WEST of Hudson Bay , with a trough extending through the S with the NEG focused from TEX into the SE . Can`t post , but it looks good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Euro seasonal update J-M . Has not changed . There is still a deep NEG S of the Aleutians with a big POS centered just WEST of Hudson Bay , with a trough extending through the S with the NEG focused from TEX into the SE . Can`t post , but it looks good . Ok, we need a drive-by el nino stroke-quote from snowman to temper this rush of enthusiasm. How much did R 1.2 warm yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Ok, we need a drive-by el nino stroke-quote from snowman to temper this rush of enthusiasm. How much did R 1.2 warm yesterday? Explosive . Massive . Incredible . JK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 so it's wrong to talk about the strength of this event in a thread dedicated to it? all the snow wishcasting should go in the winter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 there is only two other years with an el nino as strong as this one...this one may be the first cold one or at least snowy...TWT...may the forcing be with you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Explosive . Massive . Incredible . JK. R1.2 Tweetathon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 so it's wrong to talk about the strength of this event in a thread dedicated to it? all the snow wishcasting should go in the winter thread Perhaps take up residence in a morgue, so that you may eradicate levity from your life completely? Honestly, are any of his posts deleted? Man, he knows his stuff, just bust'n him. Feel free to rip into me. Unc, "may the forcing be with you"...I like that, gonna steal it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 there is only two other years with an el nino as strong as this one...this one may be the first cold one or at least snowy...TWT...may the forcing be with you...Very clever uncle W. Although I agree. This could shape up to be an interesting Niño event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Perhaps take up residence in a morgue, so that you may eradicate levity from your life completely? Honestly, are any of his posts deleted? Man, he knows his stuff, just bust'n him. Feel free to rip into me. Unc, "may the forcing be with you"...I like that, gonna steal it lol every once and a while I come up with a good one...I can be quite corny at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 so it's wrong to talk about the strength of this event in a thread dedicated to it? all the snow wishcasting should go in the winter thread No one is doing that here . We have been debating the evolution of this NINO since May . We have argued it strength and regional warmth in relation to other strong NINO s. We have pointed out where we were and where we are going in terms of the evolution into the winter No one here is forecasting snow here . When the same people scream how this was an east based event since May and then In the face of this moving west many the same posters would only point out a move in 1 region and ignore the other 3 as this spread west . Posters had to post ad nauseam to counter how it was not an east based event and only after months of the push back where they forced to let the argument go . Then there was the faint hope that the warm water would be erased in the EPO region after Tom posted one time on the possibility . He rode that for 2 months before we showed the AN anomaly in EPO region stuck and still present today , again they were forced to let that argument go . Then early in the year and later on by WSI the idea of a " modoki" style forcing was a possibility , which was saw by the better seasonal guidance . Again the forcing is out near the D/L and not east like in 97/98. We will see how long it takes to accept that . When the general theme by some was/is a strong EL NINO should overwhelm the pattern we argue the guidance . If there was forcing out near 100W and a huge trough sitting on the west shores of Hudson bay no one would be calling for the chance of a good winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I wrote up about 17 pages on why I felt as though last winter had as good of a chance as any to be downright historic in E MA, so I'm not sure who in the hell wishcasts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 No one is doing that here . We have been debating the evolution of this NINO since May . We have argued it strength and regional warmth in relation to other strong NINO s. We have pointed out where we were and where we are going in terms of the evolution into the winter No one here is forecasting snow here . When the same people scream how this was an east based event since May and then In the face of this moving west many the same posters would only point out a move in 1 region and ignore the other 3 as this spread west . Posters had to post ad nauseam to counter how it was not an east based event and only after months of the push back where they forced to let the argument go . Then there was the faint hope that the warm water would be erased in the EPO region after Tom posted one time on the possibility . He rode that for 2 months before we showed the AN anomaly in EPO region stuck and still present today , again they were forced to let that argument go . Then early in the year and later on by WSI the idea of a " modoki" style forcing was a possibility , which was saw by the better seasonal guidance . Again the forcing is out near the D/L and not east like in 97/98. We will see how long it takes to accept that . When the general theme by some was/is a strong EL NINO should overwhelm the pattern we argue the guidance . If there was forcing out near 100W and a huge trough sitting on the west shores of Hudson bay no one would be calling for the chance of a good winter . I disagree. I guarantee people would hype up the AO and NAO being negative and saving the winter. You could probably make a drinking game based on how many times people reference the July-DJF NAO correlation presented by WSI. The lucky participants would die from alcohol poisoning in the first 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I disagree. I guarantee people would hype up the AO and NAO being negative and saving the winter. You could probably make a drinking game based on how many times people reference the July-DJF NAO correlation presented by WSI. The lucky participants would die from alcohol poisoning in the first 2 days. The majority of we in the NE forum are not at all sold on a -AO/NAO, so you are wrong about us. The overwhelming majority would have cancelled winter already, myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I disagree. I guarantee people would hype up the AO and NAO being negative and saving the winter. You could probably make a drinking game based on how many times people reference the July-DJF NAO correlation presented by WSI. The lucky participants would die from alcohol poisoning in the first 2 days. If the drivers/guidance/analogs were against it , it would be easily pushed back . Yes WSI Modoki reference was based on a Rossby wave that may not even be present , however their forcing idea looks good so far plus it is too early to say they were wrong yet on the initial idea . I will agree that everyone is always chasing the better winter ideas , but most good posters here would yell fail and point out the reasons why . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 The majority of we in the NE forum are not at all sold on a -AO/NAO, so you are wrong about us. The overwhelming majority would have cancelled winter already, myself included. yeah...I can't see a cold and snowy winter without a negative ao/nao...but there is always a first time for everything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Its sort of good seeing the NAO not be notceably negative and possibly even go positive for the first time in October in seemingly years. It seems the -NAO in October is never good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 The models continue to trend stronger with the Nino trimonthly peak, still showing a December peak but now above +2.5C. Link to the IRI plumes: https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/652113859705204736 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 If the drivers/guidance/analogs were against it , it would be easily pushed back . Yes WSI Modoki reference was based on a Rossby wave that may not even be present , however their forcing idea looks good so far plus it is too early to say they were wrong yet on the initial idea . I will agree that everyone is always chasing the better winter ideas , but most good posters here would yell fail and point out the reasons why . We would need to see R1.2 and 3 cool pretty soon to see a modoki. Odds against that imo....but then again, R4 is off the charts, so....who knows. The models continue to trend stronger with the Nino trimonthly peak, still showing a December peak but now above +2.5C. Link to the IRI plumes: https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/652113859705204736 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Ian is saying the EURO monthlies suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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