40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 There was with the top five strongest Nino's on record where the October pattern continued into winter with those five. Numerous others in the top eleven strongest El Nino's like 2009 also followed suit. But there were also a couple that didn't follow the pattern. Very interesting to know. Thanks. What were the ones that didn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I assume 1997, 1982, 1972, 1957 and 1965 were the fab five? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I have a feeling this one will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 There was with the top five strongest Nino's on record where the October pattern continued into winter with those five. Numerous others in the top eleven strongest El Nino's like 09-10 also followed suit. But there were also a couple that didn't follow the pattern. That would make sense. With a strong anomaly in place, you would think that it prohibits major pattern changes to occur once the wave lengths start to shorten in the fall. Interesting stat. I still believe we will have a warm December though before all the action starts thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Dec Jan Feb QBO for NYC's snowiest years...red years are plus enso...blue years negative...red numbers are plus QBO...black negative... season.....Dec.........Jan.........Feb 1947-48................-04.44...-05.78 1948-49...-08.18...-09.77...-11.30 1955-56....03.82...-01.01...-03.23 1957-58....07.35....05.25....04.10 1959-60....08.30....04.79....03.39 1960-61...-11.36...-05.47...-00.62 1963-64....05.48....03.94....05.26 1966-67....13.26....11.03....10.49 1968-69...-11.36...-08.58...-04.43 1977-78....01.69....03.21....06.07 1993-94...-06.00...-07.64...-09.84 1995-96...-04.57...-05.79...-06.90 2000-01...-14.56...-15.69...-15.53 2002-03...-00.50...-01.39...-01.43 2003-04...-11.38...-04.84....02.61 2004-05....02.45...-00.69...-00.96 2005-06...-25.04...-18.83...-11.24 2009-10...-15.57...-16.02...-16.98 2010-11....10.97....09.18....10.05 2013-14....12.55....13.13....12.68 2014-15...-25.38...-26.70...-28.62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 That would make sense. With a strong anomaly in place, you would think that it prohibits major pattern changes to occur once the wave lengths start to shorten in the fall. Interesting stat. I still believe we will have a warm December though before all the action starts thereafter. Very possible, but if we do not, then we know which way this one is headed. I mean, just a normal December, and you can take this one to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Lots of read on there, including '57-'58.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 The September region 3.4 reading was the warmest in history, beat out 1997 solidly https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/651069828740984832 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Very possible, but if we do not, then we know which way this one is headed. I mean, just a normal December, and you can take this one to the bank. I'm just going by past Nino events which are typically back loaded winters. Heck I hope I'm dead wrong with a warm December. If that's the case, then yes we would in all likelihood be well on our way to an epic winter with all the players that are on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 There was with the top five strongest Nino's on record where the October pattern continued into winter with those five. Numerous others in the top eleven strongest El Nino's like 09-10 also followed suit. But there were also a couple that didn't follow the pattern. The weak events like last year and 77-78 didn't show the carryover from October to winter. 2009 though did a massive flip in November. I recall many cities had a top 5 coldest October on record and followed it up with a top 5 warm November, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 Extremely powerful WWB going on right now, Eric Blake just tweeted this, 25kt Equatorial westerly winds, wow. This should set off yet another downwelling kelvin wave...https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/651122937894821893 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 What are the implications of this? I know that weak-west is favorable, but it may be more moderate this season. I would only utilize the QBO in concert w/ solar behavior. The QBO modality in and of itself doesn't hold much predictive value in terms of inducing certain patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 mei up to 2.527...third highest since 1950...1982-83 and 1997-98 were the two warmer events so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 mei up to 2.527...third highest since 1950...1982-83 and 1997-98 were the two warmer events so far...Amazing! https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/651137180979499008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I hope it reaches +5C, as long as the forcing stays put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 I hope it reaches +5C, as long as the forcing stays put.Dr.Ventrice just tweeted that the main El Nino tropical forcing cell is at 135W and is getting stronger: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/651422220980494336 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Dr.Ventrice just tweeted that the main El Nino tropical forcing cell is at 135W and is getting stronger: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/651422220980494336 Not as far as 1997, and it's only going to move westward, not eastward. Look at the October pattern. Tweets are great, but I'm I think some read too much into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Not as far as 1997, and it's only going to move westward, not eastward. Look at the October pattern. Tweets are great, but I'm I think some read too much into them. I agree. It's clearly moving westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 Not as far as 1997, and it's only going to move westward, not eastward. Look at the October pattern. Tweets are great, but I'm I think some read too much into them. It's a standing wave right now, what makes you think it's going to move west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Fairly robust burst of positive 850-Hpa U anomalies in the 180-140W region, indicative of the westerly wind burst. This will probably induce a further warming of regions 3.4/3 and even region 4 in the coming week. Recent CFSV2 runs continue to suggest that region 1.2 will be gradually declining over the next several weeks to levels eventually sub +2.0c. My guess is this may occur by early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 It's a standing wave right now, what makes you think it's going to move west? Because all of the warmest anomalies are, which is not a perfect correlation by any stretch, but all of the best seasonal models, as well. I love the cherry picking of random tweets....these guys just think out loud sometimes, and people just read too much into it. Wasn't Vetrice's WSI the agency that was touting a modoki like 2 weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 Because all of the warmest anomalies are, which is not a perfect correlation by any stretch, but all of the best seasonal models, as well. I love the cherry picking of random tweets....these guys just think out loud sometimes, and people just read too much into it. Wasn't Vetrice's WSI the agency that was touting a modoki like 2 weeks ago? The warmest anomalies are not west, the warmest regions as of the latest update are 3.4, 3, 1+2 with 4 being the "coolest" out of the other 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Because all of the warmest anomalies are, which is not a perfect correlation by any stretch, but all of the best seasonal models, as well. I love the cherry picking of random tweets....these guys just think out loud sometimes, and people just read too much into it. Wasn't Vetrice's WSI the agency that was touting a modoki like 2 weeks ago? I think his Modoki call was dependent on the Rossby wave interfering idea coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The warmest anomalies are not west, the warmest regions as of the latest update are 3.4, 3, 1+2 with 4 being the "coolest" out of the other 3R 4 is plus 1.1C which is a record for this date . You know why because it's very anomalous and takes a lot of energy to warm 30c equatorial waters by 1c .The largest concentration of heat is easily seen between 100 and 140. 3 and 3.4 region. Those are central basins. There is heat in the east but it is no match for the basin or what occurred there in 97. At some point you have to let it go. The warmest waters in terms of volume are not in the east. They just aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I think his Modoki call was dependent on the Rossby wave interfering idea coming to fruition. No the Modiki reference has to do with the forcing. Which is occurring further west. You see that going on now. We are not forcing in the east. Now does that mean 09/10 again ? Who knows , but the guidance (X the CFS) see the continuation of the DL forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 No the Modiki reference has to do with the forcing. Which is occurring further west. You see that going on now. We are not forcing in the east. Now does that mean 09/10 again ? Who knows , but the guidance (X the CFS) see the continuation of the DL forcing. I don't think that's it Second, we have a few counter-indicators this year that confuse the picture. Most notably, there is a chance that an oceanic Rossby wave has formed off the west coast of South America. If this is the case, it could work against the Kelvin waves described above, moving warm waters westward. In theory, this could create what we call a Modoki-type El Nino, in which the warming takes place mostly in the central Pacific with cooling in the far eastern Pacific near South America. http://www.wsi.com/blog/el-nino-and-winter-2015-16-the-science-behind-the-predictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Even though the warmest waters relative to normal (anomalies) are in the central / eastern regions right now, the +1.1C anomaly in region 4 implicates extremely warm absolute SST's (30C+) which are very conducive to robust tropical convection. It's a major reason why we're seeing a lot of the tropical convection congregate in regions 3.4 and 4 over the past 1-2 weeks, even while, concurrently, eastern regions have warmed (still generally sub 27C however). This demonstrates the meteorology behind why basin-wide seasons like 1957-58 had favorable forcing patterns; although eastern regions were anomalously warm, central / western regions were as well, which, when translating the absolute sea surface temperatures, yields a stronger response in convective forcing due to the greater energy being inputted into the atmosphere. We'll see what path we progress down this fall. However, as it stands, I see no reason to change what I've opined from several months ago: a trimonthly peak value around +1.8c - +1.95c with a basin-wide event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I don't think that's it http://www.wsi.com/blog/el-nino-and-winter-2015-16-the-science-behind-the-predictions The central basin warming on balance would be the catalyst for more central and west based forcing. I can't say for sure if the Rossby wave idea was wrong , it may be , but we are going to have to wait a bit and see if the east starts to cool before we call WSI wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 One other thing to keep in mind is the Euro seasonal shows Enso 3.4 peaking > 3C+ and still produces a decent winter for most of the east coast (based on the temp and precip maps.) So I think the angst over upcoming warming in 3 & 3.4 shouldn't be of much concern. I would add, however, that the Euro seasonal updates in 2 days, so hopefully I won't be crying in my weenie Wheaties then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.