PB GFI Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I can't wait to see the Nino just completely dominate the pattern soon the shear force of a super El Niño dominating is really awe inspiring. It's a beautiful thing! Now to me that denoted a not so cold /snowy winter. As you responded to us discussing the EPO region for the winter. If that wasn't or has not been your intention then I am wrong , but if anyone wants to go back and your tone/postings since day 1 maybe others will see what I thought I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Enough guys. Let's not ruin a good thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Now to me that denoted a not so cold /snowy winter. As you responded to us discussing the EPO region for the winter. If that wasn't or has not been your intention then I am wrong , but if anyone wants to go back and your tone/postings since day 1 maybe others will see what I thought I saw. I never said that I was a fan of snow.....I just root for modokis and negative EPOs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 the pattern right now is great and if it was winter we would be shoveling 14" of snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 the pattern right now is great and if it was winter we would be shoveling 14" of snow....UNC having the negative that far west usually spikes the PNA and combined that with shorter wavelengths possibly developing under blocks , the bigger solution are always on the table .The scary thing for me is , the seasonal set up looks too good . At some point a fly may show up. Maybe it's a just a function of living on the coast at 40N , seeing forecasts ripped away inside 12 hours so one should take a lot of this with a grain if salt. But as it stands the entire set up is there , it doesn't mean it has to produce , but there are some big players on the field right now. Better to have them , then not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 3, 2015 Author Share Posted October 3, 2015 Well, it looks like the CFS is finally waking up and starting to go with a December peak for this Nino, just like every single other model has had for months. The CFS was the lone model showing a November peak and it has finally folded to the other guidance, no surprise there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 UNC having the negative that far west usually spikes the PNA and combined that shorter wavelengths under blocks , the bigger solution are always on the table . The scary thing for me is , the seasonal set up looks too good . At some point a fly may show up. Maybe it's a just a function of living on the coast at 40N , seeing forecasts ripped away inside 12 hours so one should take a lot of this with a grain if salt. But as it stands the entire set up is there , it doesn't mean it has to produce , but there are some big players on the field right now. Better to have them , then not. it all depends on how much cold air is available in a set up like this...it could be a mixster or true blizzard...October 2009 had a few days with cold rain in the city and snow in the suburbs mid month...2002 had two nights with sleet and snow at the end of the month...1982 had a noreaster near then end of the month...all had a blizzard in February....I'm not saying that will happen but it is another good sign...the next sign could be a detour so caution is advisable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Latest daily SOI value is -49.70. That's pretty damn crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Latest daily SOI value is -49.70. That's pretty damn crazy. soi minimums ...todays was --49.70...lowest so far for this event...1997 was -85.72 and -77.60 at the peaks... day.....1997...2015 soi minimums... 086...-38.04..........076...-35.90 101...-38.78..........098...-31.15 124...-37.85..........129...-46.94 143...-41.87..........135...-33.15 151...-85.72..........143...-17.75 162...-49.99..........156...-04.71 168...-61.70..........166....10.75 180...-21.54..........177...-48.73 188....02.84..........188....13.48 197...-09.84..........197...-31.46 204...-34.78..........204...-11.39 215...-15.82..........215...-37.87 233...-33.88..........233...-21.85 254...-17.27..........254...-33.75 260...-26.63..........260...-04.94 278...-32.98..........276...-49.77 308...-56.59 331...-44.58 032...-77.60 093...-52.94 120...-53.83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 soi minimums ...todays was --49.70...lowest so far for this event...1997 was -85.72 and -77.60 at the peaks... day.....1997...2015 soi minimums... 086...-38.04..........076...-35.90 101...-38.78..........098...-31.15 124...-37.85..........129...-46.94 143...-41.87..........135...-33.15 151...-85.72..........143...-17.75 162...-49.99..........156...-04.71 168...-61.70..........166....10.75 180...-21.54..........177...-48.73 188....02.84..........188....13.48 197...-09.84..........197...-31.46 204...-34.78..........204...-11.39 215...-15.82..........215...-37.87 233...-33.88..........233...-21.85 254...-17.27..........254...-33.75 260...-26.63..........260...-04.94 278...-32.98..........276...-49.77 308...-56.59 331...-44.58 032...-77.60 093...-52.94 120...-53.83 Thanks for that - I forgot what the peak was in 97. Still a far way from that, but impressive nonetheless. I'm interested to see the weekly numbers... Tropicaltidbits shows big warming in the past 2 days, but I dunno if it's real because it's been too cool for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 UpdatedYeah. It won't stop at all. Looks like this could be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Its precipitation portion of the forecast continues to indicate the congregation of strongest tropical convective forcing around 170-180W, which if correct, would be favorable. This coincides well with its corresponding 500mb map which depicts the sprawling / expansive GOA vortex and concomitant W Canadian ridge immediately downstream. It's probably a mean EPO near neutral for DJF. Of course, we're still far out - so caution should be exercised. It is good to see the maintenance of its prior run's solution, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Updated Whether a neutral EPO or slightly NEG. (Pressures are higher both N and S of the GOA negative) so it's a wash. ,What's more important is can those AN SST south of Aleutians combined with the D/L forcing help pull the NEG far enough SW . If it can then look at those heights on the the west shores of HB, that pos PNA in turn allows HP to slip through the lakes. I haven 't looked at the 2M temp map but I assume you will AN through Alaska and western Canada and BN Temps in the SE , MA and probably S New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Whether a neutral EPO or slightly NEG. (Pressures are higher both N and S of the GOA negative) so it's a wash. ,What's more important is can those AN SST south of Aleutians combined with the D/L forcing help pull the NEG far enough SW . If it can then look at those heights on the the west shores of HB, that pos PNA in turn allows HP to slip through the lakes. I haven 't looked at the 2M temp map but I assume you will AN through Alaska and western Canada and BN Temps in the SE , MA and probably S New England. Here's the link to all of the model's forecasts/products. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201509/carealtime.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Here's the link to all of the model's forecasts/products. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201509/carealtime.html Boom lead 3. There you go. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Boom lead 3. There you go. Thanks man. Yep. That works for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Looks like the ERSSTv4 has been running about 0.4-0.6c cooler than the OISSTv2 dataset over the past few months. The new JAS trimonthly will come in around 1.5c, at the threshold for strong el nino. Given the differences, we'd likely need a monthly OISSTv2 value of +2.4/2.5c or greater in order to achieve a +2.0c monthly anomaly on ERSSTv4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 September 30mb QBO value has risen to +12.07, solidly westerly. Will be another factor to monitor for the ensuing winter. Very high likelihood that the QBO will average positive for DJFM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 September 30mb QBO value has risen to +12.07, solidly westerly. Will be another factor to monitor for the ensuing winter. Very high likelihood that the QBO will average positive for DJFM. What are the implications of this? I know that weak-west is favorable, but it may be more moderate this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 September 30mb QBO value has risen to +12.07, solidly westerly. Will be another factor to monitor for the ensuing winter. Very high likelihood that the QBO will average positive for DJFM.Yea, looks like a strong positive QBO winter coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Don`t sweat the QBO . Compliments of Analog away ... 2002-03 was a VERY positive QBO. So was 2004-05. 2010-11 was a bit positive. 2001-02 was VERY negative and that didn't work out so well. 2011-12 was slightly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Don`t sweat the QBO . Compliments of Analog away ... 2002-03 was a VERY positive QBO. So was 2004-05. 2010-11 was a bit positive. 2001-02 was VERY negative and that didn't work out so well. 2011-12 was slightly negative. I agree. There's a lot of variability in winters with negative or positive QBO states to suggest that the QBO likely has only limited explanatory power. Arguably, perhaps the strongest link is idea that an easterly QBO increases the likelihood major stratospheric warming events. However, even such events are not sufficiently well understood for high confidence predictability. Last winter was another case that illustrates such limitations. The strongest stratospheric warming event was a moderate one despite an easterly QBO and despite some of the guidance occasionally hinting at stronger events that would weaken or split the polar vortex. I could be wrong, but IMO, if the other "players" are in place, we should have a decent winter. If not, we won't. The QBO might contribute a little, but it won't make or break the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Don`t sweat the QBO . Compliments of Analog away ... 2002-03 was a VERY positive QBO. So was 2004-05. 2010-11 was a bit positive. 2001-02 was VERY negative and that didn't work out so well. 2011-12 was slightly negative. Sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Don`t sweat the QBO . Compliments of Analog away ... 2002-03 was a VERY positive QBO. So was 2004-05. 2010-11 was a bit positive. 2001-02 was VERY negative and that didn't work out so well. 2011-12 was slightly negative. here is a link to the QBO numbers not to argue at all, but I wouldn't agree with some of your characterizations though would agree that the QBO shouldn't hurt us unless a rising +QBO is a problem I mention that only because of the 01/02 debacle http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index p.s. 13/14 was positive and that turned out pretty good for most in the MA and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 The July-September tri-monthly Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.46°C (ERSSTv4). Based on the evolution of past strong El Niño events, a similar evolution of the current event would imply a peak tri-monthly anomaly of +2.0°C to +2.2°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 here is a link to the QBO numbers not to argue at all, but I wouldn't agree with some of your characterizations though would agree that the QBO shouldn't hurt us unless a rising +QBO is a problem I mention that only because of the 01/02 debacle http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index p.s. 13/14 was positive and that turned out pretty good for most in the MA and NE Looks like he was looking at 01/02 and not 02/03 02/03- D-M 0.20 0.04 -0.04 -0.25 = Neut . Yep , 2014 J - M 1.23 1.12 0.98 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Looks like he was looking at 01/02 and not 02/03 02/03- D-M 0.20 0.04 -0.04 -0.25 = Neut . Yep , 2014 J - M 1.23 1.12 0.98 . I've always viewed near neutral, or weak, as being optimal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 One could only hope ( I do ) that there is a 500 mb link between OCT and J -M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 One could only hope ( I do ) that there is a 500 mb link between OCT and J -M There was with the top five strongest Nino's on record where the October pattern continued into winter with those five. Numerous others in the top eleven strongest El Nino's like 09-10 also followed suit. But there were also a couple that didn't follow the pattern. The weak events like last year and 77-78 didn't show the carryover from October to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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