Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[OSUmetstud]

That looks like neg NAO/AO/EPO to me.

Remember, there can be very cold air in the high latitudes concurrent with positive departures.

I'd say -ao -nao +pna neutral or slightly positive epo.

[PB GFI]

This much more of a +pna pattern than a -epo. Take a look at the pna composite. Looks way closer to that depiction.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/pna.composite.gif

 

 100 % AGREE HERE . The difference in the height field on the west coast is way more impressive/DEEPER  than further east , and this has been my argument all along , the further west you tug those heights , you open up HP through the lakes .

I did not say it was a deeply NEG EPO - but one non the less.

 

I think that is a function of 2 things that warm water is SW of the Aleutians and the forcing nearer the DL helps pull that NEG west, but the higher pressure over the top make me think it`s a NEG EPO , So we can detente , you say Neut I say slightly NEG .

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd say -ao -nao +pna neutral or slightly positive epo.

Could be.

We need Will to settle it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ok, I agree.....

[donsutherland1]

His opinion I have not heard this anywhere else!

For several months, there has been speculation that the PDO+ was breaking down. It hasn't. Month-to-month fluctuations have been occurring, but both the guidance and current SSTAs strongly suggest a PDO+ will predominate during the December-February period. I don't think one will see the extreme PDO+ values one saw last winter, but an average near +1 is very much in the realm of possibility.

[40/70 Benchmark]

For several months, there has been speculation that the PDO+ was breaking down. It hasn't. Month-to-month fluctuations have been occurring, but both the guidance and current SSTAs strongly suggest a PDO+ will predominate during the December-February period. I don't think one will see the extreme PDO+ values one saw last winter, but an average near +1 is very much in the realm of possibility.

I mean, we had a record breaking positive PDO.....the fact that it dropped off shouldn't send anyone to the ER.

I'd bet that the AO/NAO will avg more negatively than last year, though...

[donsutherland1]

I mean, we had a record breaking positive PDO.....the fact that it dropped off shouldn't send anyone to the ER.

I'd bet that the AO/NAO will avg more negatively than last year, though...

I agree. At present, there really is no guidance suggesting a PDO- for the winter. A PDO- is low probability scenario.

[easternsnowman]

I agree. At present, there really is no guidance suggesting a PDO- for the winter. A PDO- is low probability scenario.

With a positive PNA and Atlantic blocking it may be good enough for the coastal plain along with a basin wide el nino.

[OSUmetstud]

New weeklies for Sept 23rd were 2.7 2.6 2.3 1.1

[40/70 Benchmark]

No surprise there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anecdotally to my naked eye.......the eastern part of NA more closely resembles the east-based years, but the EPO region/AK looks closer to the west-based set.

[ClicheVortex2014]

As Bluewave mentioned... GEFS backed off on the retrogression in the second week of October. Still a far way out so things can still change, but the models did have to sort out a North Pacific wave breaking event in the first few days of October... which I think they've got down by now.

 

Here's the forecast progression for the second week of October, starting with Sunday 12z and then hitting each 00z and 12z runs.

 

http://i.imgur.com/RUUknrE.png

http://i.imgur.com/8Af1bF8.png

http://i.imgur.com/KP6EwFo.png

http://i.imgur.com/GC3n1MY.png

 

I don't think there's much meaning to where the Aleutian low is in October... I also expect it to retrograde again later on, but I didn't expect it to happen this early. But some people were been talking about the models showing a complete retrogression in the first half of October.

[PB GFI]

The entire pattern has begun to retrograde . This was the CFS 500 mb forecast 21 days ago to it`s most recent run  . It too finally sees the trough in the east and a ridge on the WC 

We switched . 

We went from a warm Sept with a ridge in the east to the next 15 days /OCT  1- 15 ish  with the trough in the east 

That`s  retrogression in both the models and the means IMO .

 

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

The entire pattern has begun to retrograde . This was the CFS 500 mb forecast 21 days ago to it`s most recent run  . It too finally sees the trough in the east and a ridge on the WC 

We switched . 

We went from a warm Sept with a ridge in the east to the next 15 days /OCT  1- 15 ish  with the trough in the east 

That`s  retrogression in both the models and the means IMO .

 

GFS ensemble mean and Euro ensemble mean have the ridge bleeding east starting in the second week of October (~10/7), really becoming prominent in the second half of the second week and beyond.

[Isotherm]

The ECMWF weeklies are more bullish on the retrogression of the trough into the Aleutians and the concomitant ridge over British Columbia.

 

 

October 10th-15:

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

GFS ensemble mean and Euro ensemble mean have the ridge bleeding east starting in the second week of October (~10/7), really becoming prominent in the second half of the second week and beyond.

 

GFS 2 meter Day 10 - 15 is Normal  so the ridge is building and you are digging a trough back into the center of the country . The Euro Day 10 - 15 850 mb show BN anomalies , which denotes HP  centered over HB extending S through the  GLC  ( There is a trough there. ) 

You can see the ridge/PNAover Alaska and the WC begin to re build day 10 thru 15 as the AN anomalies are showing up . 

[PB GFI]

GFS ensemble mean and Euro ensemble mean have the ridge bleeding east starting in the second week of October (~10/7), really becoming prominent in the second half of the second week and beyond.

The only thing bleeding after the 7th will be colder air to the base of the trough, that will stuck in the means in the SE which is the opposite of where we have been . 

 

 

There is no EC ridge . Day 10  through 15,  There is not cross polar flow yet,  it is pacific cooled air , but there is a ridge on the WC .  But it`s not a breakdown of the retrogression , you see the trough in the  GOA and the ridge going up on the WC , the retrogression is in progress . 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

East based super Nino incoming.

[ClicheVortex2014]

East based super Nino incoming.

 

 

I see you used 06z GEFS, PB. 12z GEFS joins 00z which backs up my claim about the ridge bleeding east. However.. yes, between the first week and second week, the trough retrogrades slightly. But if you look at the pattern between the two periods (i.e., every 6 hours), the trough oscillates slightly. It retrogrades slightly out of the GoA, then moves back in.

 

Euro's still coming in.

 

[PB GFI]

 

I see you used 06z GEFS, PB. 12z GEFS joins 00z which backs up my claim about the ridge bleeding east. However.. yes, between the first week and second week, the trough retrogrades slightly. But if you look at the pattern between the two periods (i.e., every 6 hours), the trough oscillates slightly. It retrogrades slightly out of the GoA, then moves back in.

 

Euro's still coming in.

 

 

It agreed with the euro weekly , week 3 - as per Chris . But take a look for yourself.  Look at the EP at 500 , why is the Euro and 6z likely right ? 

If you deepen a NEG in the GOA , you have to kick the ridge up in front of it , you get a POS PNA ,

How likely is a ridge to extend across the entire country ? 

It would not . The error is the ensembles don`t see the trough in the east . The Euro does , the 6z GEFS does .

I am just giving you my opinion based on what I am  seeing that at 500 . 

 

Just look at the difference here between 6z and 12z , at 12z its too broad , it does not make sense . 

So the correction is, if you deepen LP in GOA , YOU PUMP THE RIDGE  and down comes the trough . 

 

 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

Best forcing continues out near the dateline much further west than at this time in 1997.

So the warmer SST profile further west seems to be at work.

 

vp.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 

Yeh , I will take this . Although I will admit it is early , but better to start here and have some wiggle room . 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

With regard to the GEFS... if you think it's a model error, that's fine... I can't argue with that because I don't really know. But that's definitely a +EPO, and we all know what that can mean.

 

 

I say "can" because I know you can have a +EPO but a +PNA-like pattern in the US. Point being... GEFS's solution looks pretty +EPO-like.

 

With regard to the Euro ensembles... I just wanna point out the Euro weekly at week 3 has the Aleutian low further west than GEFS... and that's for the 3rd week of October. 

[PB GFI]

With regard to the GEFS... if you think it's a model error, that's fine... I can't argue with that because I don't really know. But that's definitely a +EPO, and we all know what that can mean.

 

 

I say "can" because I know you can have a +EPO but a +PNA-like pattern in the US. Point being... GEFS's solution looks pretty +EPO-like.

 

With regard to the Euro ensembles... I just wanna point out the Euro weekly at week 3 has the Aleutian low further west than GEFS... and that's for the 3rd week of October. 

 

 

Day 10 - That`s a NEG EPO .  Pressure is higher to over ALASKA , lower in the GOA 

 

The models do come up and show the reversal again   But to your original point you can see how we are reversing  since Sept in the EPO  region 

 

 

[snowman19]

One thing is for sure, given the mega WWB about to hit and very strong kelvin wave about to emerge, this Nino's strength could possibly increase exponentially by the end of next month..,

[PB GFI]

That is a really an impressive area of 30C+ SST's over R4. I believe it's near record levels for late in September.

 

pac_oisst_current.png

 

It`s a great basin wide event . 

[PB GFI]

That`s a tough now cast , when it`s own model , the CFS sees this , ( Looks like the Euro ) .

[snowman19]

Given the recent developments and the forecasts going ahead, I think the Nino peaks sometime in December and we see a region 3.4 trimonthly peak greater than the 1997-1998 El Niño, I'm going with a +2.4C - +2.5C.

[OSUmetstud]

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_09_2015/post-3027-0-28298300-1443541819.png

There's been approximately 30 degree shift east in the warmest anomalies in the past two months.

[snowman19]

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_09_2015/post-3027-0-28298300-1443541819.png

That deserves a holy crap! One of the reasons I can easily see a region 3.4 trimonthly peak surpassing 1997-1998. Would not be surprised to see +3C's in region 3.4 on the weeklies over the next 3 months

[ClicheVortex2014]

Day 10 - That`s a NEG EPO .  Pressure is higher to over ALASKA , lower in the GOA 

 

The models do come up and show the reversal again   But to your original point you can see how we are reversing  since Sept in the EPO  region 

 

 

Meh, well we're both seeing the same thing... no sense debating what to call it. It is what it is.