uncle W Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 soi has been positive the last few days...A bump in the road?... https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 31, 2015 Author Share Posted May 31, 2015 While the SOI was below -10 for May, it wasn't that strong a negative reading compared to some other years. -10 or lower SOI Mays since 1950: 2015.....-13.5... so far 2005.....-14.5 2002.....-14.5 1997.....-22.4 1994.....-13.0 1991.....-19.3 1987.....-21.6 1977.....-11.4 1972......-16.1 1957......-12.2 Like you already said, the WWBs are what is important in the development of strong El Ninos and the onslaught of them this month and what's being progged for June is pretty amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 31, 2015 Author Share Posted May 31, 2015 Forecasting WWB's more than a week out is pretty difficult to do. But the latest forecast for the first week of June has the WWB's weakening a bit west of the dateline. You can actually see some stronger trades developing there in the forecast than we have seen in recent months. u.anom.30.5S-5N.png Andres is going to cause a major WWB as it moves along, the models will start picking up on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Nino 1+2 has leveled off for the time being while 3.4 is up to +1.3 this week. 20MAY2015 26.6 2.6 28.2 1.2 28.9 1.1 29.8 1.1 27MAY2015 26.3 2.6 28.2 1.4 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1 The new CFSV2 is weaker in the 1.2 region than previous run and the models look to be doing well spiking the 3.4 region . Both areas look to reach their peak around October and slope lower with the 3.4 region remaining the warmer of the 2 areas for the winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 1, 2015 Author Share Posted June 1, 2015 Nino 1+2 has leveled off for the time being while 3.4 is up to +1.3 this week. 20MAY2015 26.6 2.6 28.2 1.2 28.9 1.1 29.8 1.1 27MAY2015 26.3 2.6 28.2 1.4 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1 At this rate, I'd be shocked if region 3.4 doesn't hit or exceed +2.0C at some point in the next 6 months. Also, did you see the major volcanic eruption ongoing on Galapagos (Isabela) island? I wonder if it's going to boost the 1+2 region ssts by directly warming the eastern tropical PAC with volcanic lava... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 At this rate, I'd be shocked if region 3.4 doesn't hit or exceed +2.0C at some point in the next 6 months. Also, did you see the major volcanic eruption ongoing on Galapagos (Isabela) island? I wonder if it's going to boost the 1+2 region ssts by directly warming the eastern tropical PAC with volcanic lava...Unlikely. The amount of energy to raise that amount of water by two degrees is much greater than what lava from a volcanic eruption would release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 2, 2015 Author Share Posted June 2, 2015 Unlikely. The amount of energy to raise that amount of water by two degrees is much greater than what lava from a volcanic eruption would release.Got ya. I'm just curious as to what the next update will show, whether or not it can actually boost Nino region 1+2's temps. You figure 2,000+ degree lava flowing into the tropical/equatorial eastern pac should have some effect. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 3, 2015 Author Share Posted June 3, 2015 It looks like we are going to be in a strong Nino (+1.5C) sooner than anyone expects. Look at the huge area of +1.5C showing up in the eastern and central Nino regions on the latest SST maps. I'd be shocked if 3.4 isn't at least +1.5C by July 1st. This thing is strengthening at a crazy rate right now and these hurricanes forming in the eastern PAC are only acting to enhance the strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 3, 2015 Author Share Posted June 3, 2015 And the new CFS run (mean) today is peaking region 3.4 at around +2.5C come November. The forecasts now become more believable now that we are leaving the "spring barrier" Isotherm warned us about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 And the new CFS run (mean) today is peaking region 3.4 at around +2.5C come November. The forecasts now become more believable now that we are leaving the "spring barrier" Isotherm warned us about. Can you show us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 3, 2015 Author Share Posted June 3, 2015 Can you show us? https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/606188746870919168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 mei jumped to +1.567 for April/May...we are on a faster pace than 1997 but soi values have not cooperated this last week...The warming might be slowing down but still could reach +2 next twin monthly period...1993 was stronger at this point in time... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 5, 2015 Author Share Posted June 5, 2015 mei jumped to +1.567 for April/May...we are on a faster pace than 1997 but soi values have not cooperated this last week...The warming might be slowing down but still could reach +2 next twin monthly period...1993 was stronger at this point in time... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html There is another major kelvin wave between 120-140W. That will act to produce another round of major warming in the eastern Nino regions and should initiate more strong WWB activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa...mei/#discussion In the context of rapidly strengthening El Niño conditions over the last few months, this section features a comparison figure with analogous events since 1950. The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+5/-7) in this season, and excluding cases with declining April-May values compared to earlier in the year gives us six 'analogues' to ponder: 1957, 1987, 1993, 1997, 2002, and 2014 (all but 2014 are included in the MEI comparison figure of this section). Except for 2002-03, peak values of the remaining four events reached the strong threshold and maintained it from three months (1993) to 13 months (1997-98). None of the comparison figure cases dropped back to ENSO-neutral rankings before the end of the calendar year. Thus, if it were not for last year's unusual evolution, it would be safe to state that El Niño conditions are virtually guaranteed through 2015. Nevertheless, the odds for a substantial El Niño during the next six months appear better than since at least 2009. Positive SST anomalies have consolidated over the equatorial Pacific, all the way from the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. While most of these anomalies reach +1 to +2C, one can find anomalies in excess of +3C near Galapagos. For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (May 14th, 2015), El Niño conditions were diagnosed, and expected to continue through the rest of 2015 with a greater than 80% chance. I see no reason to disagree with this assessment. There are a number of ENSO indices that are kept up-to-date on the web. Several of these are tracked at the NCEP website that is usually updated around the same time as the MEI, in time for this go-around. In early 2014, Niño regions 3 and 3.4 rose from around -0.5C for both indices to +0.9C for Niño 3, and just shy of +0.5C for Niño 3.4 by June. This first stage of El Niño-like conditions was interrupted in July and August with barely positive values, only to rise again to +0.9C for Niño 3 and +0.85C for Niño 3.4 in November 2014. The following four months saw Niño 3 values as low as +0.2C, and Niño 3.4 hanging in around +0.5C. The Niño 3 anomaly rose by a full degree Celsius since then, reaching +1.2C in May, while Niño 3.4 rose to +1.0C in May. Weekly SST anomalies show a continual rise thru last month, reaching +1.4C and 1.3C by the end of May, respectively. For extended Tahiti-Darwin SOI data back to 1876, and timely monthly updates, check the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. This index has often been out of sync with other ENSO indices in the last decade, including a jump to +10 (+1 sigma) in April 2010 that was ahead of any other ENSO index in announcing La Niña conditions. In 2014, its value has varied from +12 in January (moderate La Niña conditions) to -13 in March and -11 in August (full-blown El Niño conditions). April and May were positive, indicating mild La Niña conditions in opposition to all other ENSO indices, but between August and November negative SOI values between -8 and -11 indicated at least weak El Niño conditions. Since December, it rose all the way to +1 in February 2015, only to drop back to -11 in March, up again to -4 in April, and back down to its lowest value so far in May: -14. While the SOI remains a noisy ENSO index, it was more clearly in the El Niño 'camp' than others from August 2014 through March 2015 with an eight-month average of almost -8. An even longer Tahiti-Darwin SOI (back to 1866) is maintained at the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia website, however with less frequent updates, although the last one was just completed to include data through 2014. Extended SST-based ENSO data can be found at the University of Washington-JISAO website, which is now a full four years behind schedule (through January 2011). Stay tuned for the next update by July 12th (travel, sorry!) to see where the MEI will be heading next. El Niño went through a four-month 'dress rehearsal' last boreal summer, disappeared for two months, returned for two months, went back to an El Niño-flavored neutral status in January, but has steadily grown to its highest value in 17 years as of April-May 2015. If it stays above +1.2 for just one more month, it will have exceeded the upper decile threshold for three months running, thus joining the somewhat exclusive 'club' of strong events according to the MEI. Meanwhile, typical El Niño impacts will be supported by positive PDO conditions that have endured since January 2014, reaching record levels from December through February 2015. Daily updates of the ENSO status can be found at the TAO/TRITON website. 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snowman19 Posted June 5, 2015 Author Share Posted June 5, 2015 Volcano "VolcanWolf" in the Galápagos (Isabella) Island continues to erupt lava into the equatorial eastern Pacific waters and actually is superheating the waters and causing SSTS to rise around it. Here is the link to the pic of the eruption still occurring: https://twitter.com/gus_gn/status/603595500948987906. Here are the latest SSTS around the volcano: https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/606831463678361600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 6, 2015 Author Share Posted June 6, 2015 The return of the trade winds from 120-150E this June so far was not something that we saw during the strongest events in 1972, 1982, and 1997. So unless we see an emergence of the strong WWB pattern that was present in May, we could have a tough time reaching El Nino levels that strong. The behavior of the tropical winds over the summer into fall be critical in determining whether we get an official CPC tri-monthly 3.4 peak in the 1.6-2.0 range or we make it to 2.1 or warmer. That's why even forecasts made in June can still have a high level of uncertainty. u.anom.30.5S-5N.png uHIpqbrBe7.png This is only going to be a temporary brief break. There is a substantial kelvin wave moving through right now which will set off another round of warming in the eastern region. The reason for the brief anomaly you showed is the blocking occurring between 120E and 180 related to the kelvin wave moment. That blocking is going to setoff another big WWB onslaught. Should be about a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Looking at the SOI outlook for June: Per the latest model consensus with an emphasis on the Euro, there is still no indication that the SOI is headed back to the strongly -SOI's that dominated most of May at least through ~6/16. So, as of now the projection for June 1-16 is for at most a modestly negative SOI. This raises the chance that June overall won't be a strongly -SOI month. IF that were to occur, it would represent a significant + diversion of this June's SOI from the solidly to strongly -SOI consensus of June for the nine analogs that I've found that were either (oncoming) 2nd year strong/super or standalone oncoming superstrong Nino's: 1997: -24.3 1987: -17.9 1982: -17.2 1972: -10.9 1940: -17.2 1905: -27.7 1896: -27.0 1888: -14.4 1877: -7.0 By the way, the July #'s were similar: -9.0, -17.3, -17.9, -17.3, -14.3, -19.8, -19.1, -15.5, -9.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 the mei at +1.567 is the seventh strongest two monthly period since 1950...I think it will top off around 1.800-1.900... 3.024...F/M 1983 3.005...A/S 1997 2.269...M/A 1992 2.140...A/M 1987 1.994...A/M 1993 1.896...J/J 1972 1.567...A/M 2015 1.524...J/F 2010 1.477...J/A 1965 1.472...D/J 1958 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 I continue to believe the probability is very low for a super Nino (2.0c or greater). We'll see what the model update this month shows, but June tends to be a fairly telling month as far as the direction this is headed magnitude wise. However, I think a peak of anywhere from 1.4c to 1.9c is still possible in the trimonthlies - a solid strong event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 I think it'll peak at 1.7c just a guess at this point but i just hope it doesn't effect our snow chances next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 strongest el nino's using the JMA index... +33...1997-98... +28...1982-83... +23...1888-89... +22...1877-78 +20...1972-73... +19...1930-31... +18...1896-97... +16...1899-00... +16...1925-26... +15...1868-69... +14...1902-03... +14...1918-19... +14...1987-88... +14...1991-92... +14...2009-10 +13...1911-12... +13...1965-66... +13...2006-07... +12...1957-58... +12...1951-52... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 7, 2015 Author Share Posted June 7, 2015 I continue to believe the probability is very low for a super Nino (2.0c or greater). We'll see what the model update this month shows, but June tends to be a fairly telling month as far as the direction this is headed magnitude wise. However, I think a peak of anywhere from 1.4c to 1.9c is still possible in the trimonthlies - a solid strong event.Isotherm this temporary trade wind burst Bluewave showed is kelvin wave and mjo related and is not going to last long at all. However, look to the east of that block, between 120W and 60 W. There is a strong WWB in Nino regions 3 and 1+2. If anything, this is going to make this Nino even more east based, plus you also have the ongoing volcanic eruption warming region 1+2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 GaWx, this may be related to the warmer waters east of Australia and along the equator over the WPAC which usually isn't associated with a strongly negative SOI. Notice how much warmer the waters are in those regions this June 1st compared to 1972, 1982, and 1997 on the same date. Bluewave, Thanks. Could those warmer waters east of Australia and over the equator in the western Pacific possibly be in any way related to AGW in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 7, 2015 Author Share Posted June 7, 2015 Bluewave, Thanks. Could those warmer waters east of Australia and over the equator in the western Pacific possibly be in any way related to AGW in your opinion? Not Bluewave, I'm sure he'll chime in too, but those waters are IOD phase related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 With respect to the SOI, the 1997-98 super El Niño, the SOI had a nearly 3-week relaxation where the trade winds broke through, beginning in late June. June 25-July 13, 1997: Average value: +0.93 July 1-July 13, 1997: Average value: +4.59 Furthermore, the shift occurred as the MJO moved through Phases 2 and 3. The MJO has just moved into Phase 2. The return of the WWB occurred a few days after the MJO moved into Phase 4. For now, the weakly positive SOI values may or may not have much relevance as to whether the ongoing El Niño event will become a strong and possibly super event. At the same time, the positive values have been somewhat stronger than those that occurred during 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 7, 2015 Author Share Posted June 7, 2015 With respect to the SOI, the 1997-98 super El Niño, the SOI had a nearly 3-week relaxation where the trade winds broke through, beginning in late June. June 25-July 13, 1997: Average value: +0.93 July 1-July 13, 1997: Average value: +4.59 Furthermore, the shift occurred as the MJO moved through Phases 2 and 3. The MJO has just moved into Phase 2. The return of the WWB occurred a few days after the MJO moved into Phase 4. For now, the weakly positive SOI values may or may not have much relevance as to whether the ongoing El Niño event will become a strong and possibly super event. At the same time, the positive values have been somewhat stronger than those that occurred during 1997. Good info Don. I believe the WWB activity will pick up again soon in region 3.4 once the MJO moves along. Also of note, as I stated before, there is still a healthy WWB on going right now in regions 3 and 1+2. Even if it doesn't turn into a super event, this is looking to be the 1st strong east-based Nino we've seen since '97-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 the 2015 soi hasn't come close to the negative soi values of 1997 but that could change...2015 had a head start because it is a second year nino... day.....1997...2015 soi minimums... 086...-38.04..........076...-35.90 101...-38.78..........098...-31.15 124...-37.85..........129...-46.94 143...-41.87..........135...-33.15 151...-85.72..........143...-17.75 162...-49.99..........156...-04.71 168...-61.70 180...-21.54 204...-34.78 233...-33.88 260...-26.63 278...-32.98 308...-56.59 331...-44.58 032...-77.60 093...-52.94 120...-53.83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 From the TAO maps, no chance we get anywhere near 97-98...the subsurface pool has a small area of +5 instead of a large area of +7.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Yeah, we did see a few low SOI months recently with this developing El Nino. But nothing approaching the strong the negative levels that we saw in the spring of 1997. The 1997 spring oceanic kelvin wave and WWB pattern was also stronger that this year was. 3/15....-11.2 4/15....-3.8 5/15...-13.7 6/15....? 3/97...-8.5 4/97...-16.2 5/97...-22.4 6/97...-24.1 I agree. Personally, I don't think the current ENSO event will reach 1997-98 proportions, but it could still wind up becoming a strong event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 7, 2015 Author Share Posted June 7, 2015 I agree. Personally, I don't think the current ENSO event will reach 1997-98 proportions, but it could still wind up becoming a strong event.Probably will not reach '97-'98 status, but it's becoming evident that a solidly strong to very strong east-based Nino is becoming more and more probable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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