Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[PB GFI]

Look. I'm talking about what's there not what u think will happen. That appears to be a weakly positive epo in the 500mb djf forecast map.

And I am telling you , you are wrong. Pressure is higher to the N and lower to the S .

Please tell me you see that ?

Lastly I use objective guidance as to give my opinion . Namely the SST European seasonal and NMME at 500 And not what " I think " .

[uncle W]

epo numbers...

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[OSUmetstud]

And I am telling you , you are wrong. Pressure is higher to the N and lower to the S

Please tell me you see that ?

that's a 500mb anomaly map. Look at the loading phase of a positive epo.

[OSUmetstud]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/epo.composite.gif

[PB GFI]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/epo.composite.gif

There is a ridge through Alaska and the West shores of Canada

The neg is well south of Alaska.

The reflection down stream yells trough in the means.

[PB GFI]

If anyone wants to a typical CFS error , just take a look at its October temp forecast for the CONUS then take a look at both the GFS and European ensembles and look where the NEG sets up by OCT is or so and then look at where the pos gets pulled too in Canada

Look at where the trough is , right where you expect it right through the lakes and into the NE.

It will blow a monthly forecast from 2 weeks out because it keeps mishandling the trough pos In the EP.

It did it a lot last year.

You will see it in OCT , so you want me to buy it's seasonal outlook ?

Sorry no can do.

[OSUmetstud]

There is a ridge through Alaska and the West shores of Canada

The neg is well south of Alaska.

The reflection down stream yells trough in the means.

Dude there is negatives also where this negatives in a positive epo. Also there is positives south of the low where there is positives in a positive epo.

[Sundog]

I hope you are able to have the same cheery attitude come the end of February

Sounds like you already made up your mind about this winter. And we all know how 3 to 6 month lead time forecasts work out. I'd tone down your confidence.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I hope you are able to have the same cheery attitude come the end of February

I've already said that this winter could still break badly...but I don't see it that way at present.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Things are setting up for a basin wide super Nino.

And its already roasting.

The depth of the warm pool is already huge.

The last couple weeks it has been reinforced.

Now winds that make that look like childs play are coming

[40/70 Benchmark]

We may see a configuration his season that has never happened before.

Doesn't necessarily mean a severe winter, but it would be interesting to see a super el nino with a neg EPO/solar minimum overlay.

[AvantHiatus]

We may see a configuration his season that has never happened before.

Doesn't necessarily mean a severe winter, but it would be interesting to see a super el nino with a neg EPO/solar minimum overlay.

Thus far, a solar min has not led to a reduction in global heat uptake. I think this winter will rival 2011-2012 for warmth in North America.

[HailMan06]

Thus far, a solar min has not led to a reduction in global heat uptake. I think this winter will rival 2011-2012 for warmth in North America.

To be determined.

[snowman19]

We may see a configuration his season that has never happened before.

Doesn't necessarily mean a severe winter, but it would be interesting to see a super el nino with a neg EPO/solar minimum overlay.

HM posted this, but this looks to be the beginning of a flip to a -PDO regime, this will have to be monitored closely come October to see if this trend continues Link: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/648206323176329216

[ClicheVortex2014]

HM posted this, but this looks to be the beginning of a flip to a -PDO regime, this will have to be monitored closely come October to see if this trend continues Link: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/648206323176329216

Dunno know about it flipping... but the warm pool seems to have shifted west a bit. Still a decently strong +PDO... still weaker than it was

 

[PB GFI]

^
Which is exactly where the European seasonal SST NMME models develops the deep NEG S of the Aleutians. Right over the top of the warmest anomalies which have now pulled further SW. In turn it pulls the POS In Canada further west.
Which allows cold air to come S .
Just as in the case of the SST analog 500 map discussed earlier today one only has to look at its 2M temp forecast to see the EPO is its in -phase.
If the heights are higher through Alaska with lower pressure to the south it's a NEG EPO. The fact that there is high pressure to its south should be understood , there will always be high pressure at some point under lower pressure ( unless one thinks you need to dig a trough all the way to the Antarctica) in the EP.
I believe a 2M temp map was dropped In today to show what the EC would look like with a POS EPO so one only has to look at the SST 2 m D -M Temp guidance which show you the SE/MA trough reflection downstream . A TROUGH which must infer a -EP .

40/70 is onto something , you have a strong/super basin wide NINO and it's roaring STJ , a forecast -EPO with DL forcing . Where the colder /wetter anomalies intersect is where the winter relative to averages could be a great one.

 

[snowman19]

^

Which is exactly where the European seasonal SST NMME models develops the deep NEG S of the Aleutians. Right over the top of the warmest anomalies which have now pulled further SW. In turn it pulls the POS In Canada further west.

Which allows cold air to come S .

Just as in the case of the SST analog 500 map discussed earlier today one only has to look at its 2M temp forecast to see the EPO is its in -phase.

If the heights are higher through Alaska with lower pressure to the south it's a NEG EPO. The fact that there is high pressure to its south should be understood , there will always be high pressure at some point under lower pressure ( unless one thinks you need to dig a trough all the way to the Antarctica) in the EP.

I believe a 2M temp map was dropped In today to show what the EC would look like with a POS EPO so only has to look at

the SST 2 m D -M Temp guidance which show you the SE/MA trough reflection downstream . A TROUGH which must infer a -EP .

40/70 is onto something , you have a strong/super basin wide NINO and it's roaring STJ , a forecast -EPO with DL forcing . Where the colder /wetter anomalies intersect is where the winter relative to averages could be a great one.

I can't wait to see the Nino just completely dominate the pattern soon the shear force of a super El Niño dominating is really awe inspiring. It's a beautiful thing!

[bluewave]

Nino regions hold steady this week. But we did see a nice chunk of forcing emerge

out near the Dateline.

 

16SEP2015 2.6  2.7  2.3 1.1
23SEP2015 2.7  2.6  2.3 1.1

 

[PB GFI]

I can't wait to see the Nino just completely dominate the pattern soon the shear force of a super El Niño dominating is really awe inspiring. It's a beautiful thing!

Yeh , you don`t have a lot of support , but good luck man. 

[easternsnowman]

HM posted this, but this looks to be the beginning of a flip to a -PDO regime, this will have to be monitored closely come October to see if this trend continues Link: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/648206323176329216

His opinion I have not heard this anywhere else!

[snowman19]

Yeh , you don`t have a lot of support , but good luck man.

I love extreme events

[PB GFI]

I love extreme events

This is a great NINO event. There is no denying it. I think we all appreciate how warm the entire basin is.

From the onset I though the monthlies would end up bet 1.8 -2

Our only difference has been east vs basin wide.

I would just like to see this event evolve into a

-epo/+pna /-nao and see if some the drivers will mitigate or overwhelm the others.

We just differ on the outcome.

It's a good study regardless .

[40/70 Benchmark]

HM posted this, but this looks to be the beginning of a flip to a -PDO regime, this will have to be monitored closely come October to see if this trend continues Link: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/648206323176329216

Considering where the PDO has been, in which direction did you expect to see it trend?

 

Here is a bold prediction for you....by the end of the winter, the ENSO regions will begin a cooling trend.

 

Hmmmm..

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thus far, a solar min has not led to a reduction in global heat uptake. I think this winter will rival 2011-2012 for warmth in North America.

I mean with regard to the AO/NAO, not NA temps.

 

I don't care what the DJFM aggregate low temp is in Bismarck, ND..

[PB GFI]

That was a troll post.

I know.

I'm trying to show the polite side of me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know.

I'm trying to show the polite side of me.

I deleted that...no good will come from that in this thread.

[OSUmetstud]

^

Which is exactly where the European seasonal SST NMME models develops the deep NEG S of the Aleutians. Right over the top of the warmest anomalies which have now pulled further SW. In turn it pulls the POS In Canada further west.

Which allows cold air to come S .

Just as in the case of the SST analog 500 map discussed earlier today one only has to look at its 2M temp forecast to see the EPO is its in -phase.

If the heights are higher through Alaska with lower pressure to the south it's a NEG EPO. The fact that there is high pressure to its south should be understood , there will always be high pressure at some point under lower pressure ( unless one thinks you need to dig a trough all the way to the Antarctica) in the EP.

I believe a 2M temp map was dropped In today to show what the EC would look like with a POS EPO so one only has to look at the SST 2 m D -M Temp guidance which show you the SE/MA trough reflection downstream . A TROUGH which must infer a -EP .

40/70 is onto something , you have a strong/super basin wide NINO and it's roaring STJ , a forecast -EPO with DL forcing . Where the colder /wetter anomalies intersect is where the winter relative to averages could be a great one.

There doesn't have to be a -epo in the means to get a trough in se/MA. You would think that one would see colder air barreling into the northern tier of the US (Midwest/plains) in a neg epo. The Midwest and plains are warmer than normal on that map.

[PB GFI]

There doesn't have to be a -epo in the means to get a trough in se/MA. You would think that one would see colder air barreling into the northern tier of the US (Midwest/plains) in a neg epo. The Midwest and plains are warmer than normal on that map.

 

Correct , No there does not  , but that is not what we disagreed on .  We spoke ONLY to the SST 500mb map . That 500 mb and 2m meter map represent a - EPO.

Those  higher pressures ( AN temps ) in Alaska with a NEG ( lower pressure to it`s South ) denote a NEG EPO  to me . 

That`s all You and I were discussing . 

If we disagree , so be it , that is how I  read it . 

 

 

BTW if the 500 mb pressure field is correct and the greatest heights are to the WEST OF HB. expect the lakes to be colder than that , as it is , what is plus .05 in Manitoba is BN most places S of the lakes ( SE/MA ) .

[40/70 Benchmark]

There doesn't have to be a -epo in the means to get a trough in se/MA. You would think that one would see colder air barreling into the northern tier of the US (Midwest/plains) in a neg epo. The Midwest and plains are warmer than normal on that map.

That looks like neg NAO/AO/EPO to me.

 

Remember, there can be very cold air in the high latitudes concurrent with positive departures.

[OSUmetstud]

Correct , No there does not , but that is not what we disagreed on . We spoke ONLY to the SST 500mb map . That 500 mb and 2m meter map represent a - EPO.

Those higher pressures ( AN temps ) in Alaska with a NEG ( lower pressure to it`s South ) denote a NEG EPO to me .

That`s all You and I were discussing .

If we disagree , so be it , that is how I read it .

This much more of a +pna pattern than a -epo. Take a look at the pna composite. Looks way closer to that depiction.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/pna.composite.gif