snowman19 Posted September 26, 2015 Author Share Posted September 26, 2015 You probably warm the central basin throughout October . Then you may start to shed some heat on the edges as we go through the month. ( later than modeled , no doubt ) . The idea I have liked continues as R 1.2 could show another tick up I expect R 3 and 3.4 spike longer as a decline in the 1.2 and 4 region happens first before 3 and 3.4 shed any heat. The warm anomalies never shed its heat in the EPO region and A neg EPO is starting to look like a good call.There are some early signs of forcing out near the dateline as well as the pattern beginning to retrograde at 500 in early OCT. Maybe a tad early for that but some like the OCT/winter 500 mb link. So I thought I would just share that we look to be headed in the right direction. If the forcing is able to stay out near the dateline the better the chances it pulls the NEG S of the Aluetins west and the downstream effect could be seen on the Euro seasonal. Regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 are going to continue to warm over the next few weeks. We are about to see a total reversal of the trade winds over the eastern tropical pacific next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 are going to continue to warm over the next few weeks. We are about to see a total reversal of the trade winds over the eastern tropical pacific next week Sure , but R 3 and 3.4 will probably tick up throughout Oct. WSI thinks a Rossby wave may be developing and "if" it's there it would help reverse the 1.2 region first and help warn the 3 and 3. 4 region longer. R 1.2 has clearly turned up and it's possible it's got a little more to go . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Sure , but R 3 and 3.4 will probably tick up throughout Oct. WSI thinks a Rossby wave may be developing and "if" it's there it would help reverse the 1.2 region first and help warn the 3 and 3. 4 region longer. R 1.2 has clearly turned up and it's possible it's got a little more to go . Don't Kelvin waves caused by WWBs usually take a couple months to affect 1+2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Don't Kelvin waves caused by WWBs usually take a couple months to affect 1+2?Yes. Assuming this is the 3rd KW of the season I will assume WSIs thinking is if a Rossby wave is forming just below the surface and pushes west , it will focus most of the heat in the 3.4 region ? And prohibits it from coming all the way east ? WSIs piece alludes to this ,as they and I continue to think the focus remains the longest in the 3 and 3.4 region. Since Rossby waves take 2 months to cross a basin if it has formed off SA coast is it possible it offsets the KW in the east region ? I do like where the early forcing is showing up as well as the heat in the EPO region . So I will have to wait until November to see how much of this holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Yes. Assuming this is the 3rd KW of the season I will assume WSIs thinking is if a Rossby wave is forming just below the surface and pushes west , it will focus most of the heat in the 3.4 region ? And prohibits it from coming all the way east ? WSIs piece alludes to this ,as they and I continue to think the focus remains the longest in the 3 and 3.4 region. I do like where the early forcing is showing up as well as the heat in the EPO region . So I will have to wait until November to see how much of this holds. Alright thanks. I'm just surprised by this sudden uptick in strong WWBs. I guess we'll just have to wait and see if WSI is right about the Rossby wave. If they're wrong, that could spell trouble. I still agree with you about the focus of the highest anomalies being in 3 and 3.4. Looks like 4 and 3.4 are taking a hit now and in the short-term (~2 weeks) though, because of the downwelling from the WWBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Alright thanks. I'm just surprised by this sudden uptick in strong WWBs. I guess we'll just have to wait and see if WSI is right about the Rossby wave. If they're wrong, that could spell trouble. I still agree with you about the focus of the highest anomalies being in 3 and 3.4. Looks like 4 and 3.4 are taking a hit now and in the short-term (~2 weeks) though, because of the WWBs. Yeh , the models/me missed the Sept spike in 1.2 no doubt. When I saw it first cool in Aug , I said ok, that should slope off But it recovered .9c inside a month . I know a lot of guys are on 1.2 as I have been focused on 3 and 3.4 and missed the spike. But 3. 3.4 and 4 did increased , so I am OK there. But I agree a Rossby wave would help "me " but I will admit I am no fluid dynamics expert so I will leave that to Dr Ventrice. I would like to see 4 tick up one more then start to cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 The sst anomalies along the SA coast back through Eastern enso won't just tick up if this happens. It will go bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 27, 2015 Author Share Posted September 27, 2015 Sure , but R 3 and 3.4 will probably tick up throughout Oct. WSI thinks a Rossby wave may be developing and "if" it's there it would help reverse the 1.2 region first and help warn the 3 and 3. 4 region longer. R 1.2 has clearly turned up and it's possible it's got a little more to go . I agree, but here is the troubling thing, look at the latest TAO. Region 1+2 is clearly over +3.0C now, before the upcoming trade wind reversal and oceanic kelvin wave surfacing and region 3 appears to have warmed to close to, if not over +3.0C as well. This is not where you want that kind of warmth to be even though we have a basin wide Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 That looks like what the euro and the Japanese model are describing for this upcoming winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 I agree, but here is the troubling thing, look at the latest TAO. Region 1+2 is clearly over +3.0C now, before the upcoming trade wind reversal and oceanic kelvin wave surfacing and region 3 appears to have warmed to close to, if not over +3.0C as well. This is not where you want that kind of warmth to be even tho]lugh we have a basin wide Nino I really believe this is becoming irrelevant at this point as far as the winter goes this is basin wide event with the forcing now showing up near the D/L combined with the NEG EPO that stayed tact The colder guidance got the basin wide event It was looking for , It got the warmth to stick S of Aleutians it was looking for .It is starting to get the forcing it was looking as it showing up near 4. ( if that sticks , it's over ). 1.2 could temporarily spike again but the greatest heat is between 3 and 3.4 look at the size of the plus 4 between 100 and 140 , the entire central basin is boiling , not just 1 small pocket like you are seeing In 1.2 The warm 97 type winter scenario is LIKELY in trouble .You/some are too stuck on one foundation wall inside an enormous structure that will be responsible downstream for an entire season. You may be too caught up in this region and missing the totality of what is going on around it which will ultimatley drive the pattern for this area. I guess we will agree to see the glass differently here as it pertains to J thru M , but hey I hope your region ticks up again , for me it's not an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 The other possibility with the coming winter is that we get a full basin event where the Aleutian Low is in a position between the west based 2003/2010 and the east based 1998/1983. West based composite 1003.png East based composite 8398.png Full basin combination event? COMBO.png Very interesting. I look forward to a possible configuration like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 With the strength of this El Nino, it is not only remarkable to say the least that our -EPO stayed intact but it is also a very encouraging sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 With the strength of this El Nino, it is not only remarkable to say the least that our -EPO stayed intact but it is also a very encouraging sign. I wouldn't spike the football just yet, but yea......many of us have been in that camp all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 The other possibility with the coming winter is that we get a full basin event where the Aleutian Low is in a position between the west based 2003/2010 and the east based 1998/1983. West based composite 1003.png East based composite 8398.png Full basin combination event? COMBO.png This has been the favored outcome all along, no? I think the consensus has always been for a basin wide, "hybrid" event....which is still a win in my book, considering the firehose of moisture that should be at our disposal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 I agree, but here is the troubling thing, look at the latest TAO. Region 1+2 is clearly over +3.0C now, before the upcoming trade wind reversal and oceanic kelvin wave surfacing and region 3 appears to have warmed to close to, if not over +3.0C as well. This is not where you want that kind of warmth to be even though we have a basin wide Nino Yes, I'm sure this has rendered you absolutely despondent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Here is my outlooked H5 pattern from back in July on the top, (overlaid adjustments from last season) compared to the hybrid H5 look. Only big difference is that mine depicts a positive AO/NAO scenario. Pretty similar out west: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 TBH, from an interior sne perspective, I'd prefer the hybrid scenario.....but down there and especially into the MA, you'd obviously want a pretty negative AO/NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 What's the average of the epo been this summer? It looks like it averaged about neutral through the summer via the cpc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/epo.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 What's the average of the epo been this summer? It looks like it averaged about neutral through the summer via the cpc. Perhaps that has a something to do with the wavelength disparity? I know the negative NAO correlates to heat in the summer, so the world gets flipped upside down when the days get longer... Or perhaps I'm speaking from the fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 That forecast map above looks like a positive epo to me. Doesn't mean it would be a bad look though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 27, 2015 Author Share Posted September 27, 2015 With the strength of this El Nino, it is not only remarkable to say the least that our -EPO stayed intact but it is also a very encouraging sign.The EPO has been positive this month, what are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 The EPO has been positive this month, what are you talking about?He may be referring more to the SSTA in the GOA which certainly remain conducive to a decent winter ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 The EPO has been positive this month, what are you talking about? He is talking about the warmer anomalies in the EPO region. You are starting to see the pattern retrograde at 500 and you will stick the NEG S of the Aleutians just in time for Oct , ergo, it's changing. In turn you will increase the heights through Alaska and onto the west shores of Hudson bay with lower heights underneath. You can see it already starting at day 10 on the GPS and European Ensembles. The SST maps to looks like a NEG In the means if you deepen the NEG far enough S in the Aleutians and stick higher heights over the top it looks like a NEG EPO to me . I know how much you like the october/winter 500 mb correlation , it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 That forecast map above looks like a positive epo to me. Doesn't mean it would be a bad look though It's NEG. The pressure is higher over Alaska and lower in the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 27, 2015 Author Share Posted September 27, 2015 Yes, I'm sure this has rendered you absolutely despondent I hope you are able to have the same cheery attitude come the end of February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 It's NEG. The pressure is higher over Alaska and lower in the Aleutians. I fail to see cross polar flow. You'd want the low further west to open up the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 I fail to see cross polar flow. You'd want the low further west to open up the arctic.If you deepen that NEG in the Aleutians , you have to turn the jet off Asia over the pole. I do see the pos to the south , but havig a NEG there "if" it's pulled far enough SW , the height field gets tugged west of HB. And for my area and yours I would lean on the side that HP will have to slide through the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 He is talking about the warmer anomalies in the EPO region. You are starting to see the pattern retrograde at 500 and you will stick the NEG S of the Aleutians just in time for Oct , ergo, it's changing. In turn you will increase the heights through Alaska and onto the west shores of Hudson bay with lower heights underneath. You can see it already starting at day 10 on the GPS and European Ensembles. The SST maps to looks like a NEG In the means if you deepen the NEG far enough S in the Aleutians and stick higher heights over the top it looks like a NEG EPO to me . I know how much you like the october/winter 500 mb correlation , it's coming. Sorry guys. I meant the warm anomalies in the EPO region has stayed intact thus far which is interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 If you deepen that NEG in the Aleutians , you have to turn the jet off Asia over the pole. I do see the pos to the south , but havig a NEG there "if" it's pulled far enough SW , the height field gets tugged west of HB. And for my area and yours I would lean on the side that HP will have to slide through the lakes. Look. I'm talking about what's there not what u think will happen. That appears to be a weakly positive epo in the 500mb djf forecast map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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