Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[HailMan06]

I have been talking about a move WEST since MAY .

02SEP2015 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.0

09SEP2015 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.0

16SEP2015 2.6 2.7 2.3 1.1

Eh, this chart shows the anomolies have shifter east overall. Look at where the greatest warming has occurred vs. the other regions.

[PB GFI]

 

I have been talking about a move WEST since MAY .

I think we're all quite aware you've been talking about a move west since may.

02SEP2015 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.0

09SEP2015 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.0

16SEP2015 2.6 2.7 2.3 1.1

 

 

 

 

 

Any idea what Aug looked like ? 

2.6

2.2

1.9 

 

 IS THAT NOT VOLATILITY ?

 

So  2.6 - 2.2 - 1.9 -2 - 2.4 - 2.7 in 6 weeks is benign ? 

[OSUmetstud]

Everyone knows 1 2 is volitale

[PB GFI]

Eh, this chart shows the anomolies have shifter east overall. Look at where the greatest warming has occurred vs. the other regions.

Aug looked like this  .

2.6

2.2

1.9 

 

Yes 1.2 spiked , but the entire basin has warmed since July . Yes R 1.2 spiked , but look how it shed the heat in only 3 weeks in Aug ,

Those  C moves in only 6 weeks is what make the shallow region defined as  volatile .  The entire basin has warmed since July . 

[OSUmetstud]

The greatest anomalies have shifted east over the last month and a half. Fact not opinion.

[csnavywx]

Yea, it isn't time to assume drastic implications, but the whole "modoki/volatile 1.2" defense mechanism tweets need to start falling by the wayside.

Yep, this was never a Modoki, nor has it ever come close. It's certainly behaved closer to 82/83 than 97/98 in the SST structure, but it's still not close to a CP Nino.

 

Most of the shouting over a CP Nino came when there was a weak upwelling phase of an EKW hitting the S. American coast. No surprise that it started heading in the other direction now that we're going into another downwelling phase. Sustained 1+2 and 3 anomalies after the middle of Oct will depend on the evolution of the current WWB and next week's event. If it ends up as strong as the current model runs show, then we probably aren't going to see sustained drops in 1+2 again.

[snowman19]

Major warming ongoing in 1+2 and 3 right now

[PB GFI]

As seen below the MAJOR warming is in R 3 and 3.4 ( You know 100 to 130 ) Unless we are redefining regions here . 

 

 

 

[Isotherm]

As I've noted before on the board, tropical Pacific forcing is most crucial insofar as mid-latitude pattern response. While the orientation of anomalously warm SST's do influence the behavior of forcing, the actual convective forcing is usually displaced from the region of warmest SST's. Over the past month, we have seen a gradual migration westward in strongest upward motion, and this past week has featured very robust convective forcing near the dateline as evidenced by the -OLR anomalies. It remains to be seen how the remainder of the autumn progresses, but seeing the wwd propagation during the month of September is an indication that the probability of an east-based super Nino continues to decrease.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 1997 and 1982 forcing was further east than 2015, with very little in the way of dateline forcing.

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

As I've noted before on the board, tropical Pacific forcing is most crucial insofar as mid-latitude pattern response. While the orientation of anomalously warm SST's do influence the behavior of forcing, the actual convective forcing is usually displaced from the region of warmest SST's. Over the past month, we have seen a gradual migration westward in strongest upward motion, and this past week has featured very robust convective forcing near the dateline as evidenced by the -OLR anomalies. It remains to be seen how the remainder of the autumn progresses, but seeing the wwd propagation during the month of September is an indication that the probability of an east-based super Nino continues to decrease.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 1997 and 1982 forcing was further east than 2015, with very little in the way of dateline forcing.

 

 

 

 

Now, this is a good, valid counter.

[PB GFI]

Tommy , Great work, and I agree good find/point as the forcing arguments go here . 

[Isotherm]

Now, this is a good, valid counter.

 

 

Further illustrating the point that forcing and most anomalous SST's are often not co-located is the following:

 

September 17th SSTA in 2009. Warmest SST's relative to normal in the eastern regions:

 

 

 

However, the September 2009 tropical forcing was centered close to the dateline:

 

 

 

 

 

Often times, the forcing pattern is more indicative or what is occurring atmospherically, and thus the response that is / will occur in SST's. So I will be interested to see what transpires SST wise over the next month or two. 1-2 week perturbations in ENSO regions do not make a trend, to me. If we progress another 2-3 weeks with the warmest anomalies relative to normal in eastern most regions, then it will become more apparent.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Further illustrating the point that forcing and most anomalous SST's are often not co-located is the following:

 

September 17th SSTA in 2009. Warmest SST's relative to normal in the eastern regions:

 

 

 

However, the September 2009 tropical forcing was centered close to the dateline:

 

 

 

 

 

Often times, the forcing pattern is more indicative or what is occurring atmospherically, and thus the response that is / will occur in SST's. So I will be interested to see what transpires SST wise over the next month or two. 1-2 week perturbations in ENSO regions do not make a trend, to me. If we progress another 2-3 weeks with the warmest anomalies relative to normal in eastern most regions, then it will become more apparent.

Exactly.....which is why I opted to give it a month.

 

Very true regarding the atmosphere driving the ssts, and not vice versa.....I believe that there does exist a feedback, but that phenomenon is oft overstated imho.

[csnavywx]

Nobody was necessarily even arguing about anomalous SST vs forcing placement. The 27.5C isotherm (critical threshold temp for tropical convection) is at 130W... in September. Not even a decently strong CP Nino will usually pull that off (2009-2010 got there very briefly during December).

[csnavywx]

Exactly.....which is why I opted to give it a month.

 

Very true regarding the atmosphere driving the ssts, and not vice versa.....I believe that there does exist a feedback, but that phenomenon is oft overstated imho.

It's called Bjerknes feedback, and no, it's not being overstated. It's a coupled feedback mechanism.

[csnavywx]

Pertinent paper on the nature and frequency of WWBs as it relates to the eastward extension of the warm pool:

 

Eisenman et. al 2005

 

Abstract:

 

Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in the equatorial Pacific occur during the development of most El Niño events and are believed to be a major factor in ENSO’s dynamics. Because of their short time scale, WWBs are normally considered part of a stochastic forcing of ENSO, completely external to the interannual ENSO variability. Recent observational studies, however, suggest that the occurrence and characteristics of WWBs may depend to some extent on the state of ENSO components, implying that WWBs, which force ENSO, are modulated by ENSO itself. Satellite and in situ observations are used here to show that WWBs are significantly more likely to occur when the warm pool is extended eastward. Based on these observations, WWBs are added to an intermediate complexity coupled ocean–atmosphere ENSO model. The representation of WWBs is idealized such that their occurrence is modulated by the warm pool extent. The resulting model run is compared with a run in which the WWBs are stochastically applied. The modulation of WWBs by ENSO results in an enhancement of the slow frequency component of the WWBs. This causes the amplitude of ENSO events forced by modulated WWBs to be twice as large as the amplitude of ENSO events forced by stochastic WWBs with the same amplitude and average frequency. Based on this result, it is suggested that the modulation of WWBs by the equatorial Pacific SST is a critical element of ENSO’s dynamics, and that WWBs should not be regarded as purely stochastic forcing. In the paradigm proposed here, WWBs are still an important aspect of ENSO’s dynamics, but they are treated as being partially stochastic and partially affected by the large-scale ENSO dynamics, rather than being completely external to ENSO. t is further shown that WWB modulation by the large-scale equatorial SST field is roughly equivalent to an increase in the ocean–atmosphere coupling strength, making the coupled equatorial Pacific effectively self-sustained.

 

 

 

[Isotherm]

Exactly.....which is why I opted to give it a month.

 

Very true regarding the atmosphere driving the ssts, and not vice versa.....I believe that there does exist a feedback, but that phenomenon is oft overstated imho.

 

 

Agreed; there is definitely a feedback loop present. Will be interesting to see how this Nino progresses as the surrounding indicators are fairly unique in the sample size since 1950.

[Isotherm]

Nobody was necessarily even arguing about anomalous SST vs forcing placement. The 27.5C isotherm (critical threshold temp for tropical convection) is at 130W... in September. Not even a decently strong CP Nino will usually pull that off (2009-2010 got there very briefly during December).

 

 

Nobody was arguing it, but I broached the subject because SST anomalies are only part of the equation, and it's important to examine both. September 1997's strongest convection was located at approximately 130W (about as far east as one can get as you noted), and September 1982 centered near 140W.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's called Bjerknes feedback, and no, it's not being overstated. It's a coupled feedback mechanism.

Yes, it is, in the sense that some folks focus too much on the ssts, when in fact if the atmosphere completely changes owed to another force exerting large influence, then they ssts will eventually change.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's coming and not a soul can hide from it

[snowman19]

It's coming and not a soul can hide from it

Those aren't just anomalous west winds. The trade winds are actually going to reverse over the eastern tropical pacific by the end of this month. That is going to allow for very significant Nino region warming

[Isotherm]

The actual September forcing is presently a few degrees west of 1997, but well east of a year like 2009.

But we'll have to see the exact location of this forcing come the winter to know where the Aleutian Low

and downstream ridge sets up.

 

 

 CHI 200Hpa is useful for ascertaining general orientation of upward motion. But OLR is a more precise indicator for tropical convection.

 

The OLR pattern since the end of August suggests quite a bit more tropical convection much further west than 1997. However, what we've seen so far doesn't necessarily have a significant amount of relevance for the coming months.

 

[Isotherm]

Those aren't just anomalous west winds. The trade winds are actually going to reverse over the eastern tropical pacific by the end of this month. That is going to allow for very significant Nino region warming

 

 

What do you think the peak trimonthly ONI value will be?

[snowman19]

What do you think the peak trimonthly ONI value will be?

I'm thinking +2.2 - +2.4 somewhere in that range

[ClicheVortex2014]

Picking up on a period of WWBs

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Picking up on a period of WWBs

Downwelling at R 3/3.4.

[ClicheVortex2014]

SOI is also crashing. Today was the second straight day of sub-negative 30. With the WWBs upcoming, I wonder if we can break -40.

 

[snowman19]

Downwelling at R 3/3.4.

The downwelling will warm those regions even further

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The downwelling will warm those regions even further

I know. That's what's going to happen.

[PB GFI]

I know. That's what's going to happen.

You probably warm the central basin throughout October . Then you may start to shed some heat on the edges as we go through the month. ( later than modeled , no doubt ) .

The idea I have liked continues as R 1.2 could show another tick up I expect R 3 and 3.4 spike longer as a decline in the 1.2 and 4 region happens first before 3 and 3.4 shed any heat.

The warm anomalies never shed its heat in the EPO region and

A neg EPO is starting to look like a good call.There are some early signs of forcing out near the dateline as well as the pattern beginning to retrograde at 500 in early OCT.

Maybe a tad early for that but some like the OCT/winter 500 mb link. So I thought I would just share that we look to be headed in the right direction.

If the forcing is able to stay out near the dateline the better the chances it pulls the NEG S of the Aluetins west and the downstream effect could be seen on the Euro seasonal.