dmillz25 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Yes if that Rossby wave exists it pushes the Kelvin wave west . As per WSI, so there is a other spike in the 3.4 region as per WSI ,and as per the guidance. It is why WSI thinks the winter time forcing resembles a "modoki " type forcing. Any questions .. refer them to Dr Ventrice, as he agrees with the westward forcing as has been opined here by many of us as per the guidance. (MINUS THE CFS of course ). I think so. It looks legit to me. The wwb looks weaker to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 25, 2015 Author Share Posted September 25, 2015 Yes if that Rossby wave exists it pushes the Kelvin wave west . As per WSI, so there is another spike in the 3.4 region as per WSI ,and as per the guidance. It is why WSI thinks the winter time forcing resembles a "modoki " type forcing. Any questions .. refer them to Dr Ventrice, as he agrees with the westward forcing that has been opined here by many of us as per the guidance. (MINUS THE CFS of course ). It's actually hilarious JB uses the selective CFS runs to show a region 3.4 drop he wants, but says to ignore the blowtorch winter the seasonal shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 I think I know the answer, but I'll ask just in case; in what way? That's pretty far east for a WWB isn't it? BTW this is what it looks like on earth.nullschool. This is a couple days before the peak of westerlies High-end Ninos often feature WWBs that penetrate further east. It really has to do with the eastern extent of the warm pool. The further it advances, the more likely WWBs are to develop and (in general) the stronger they are. '97, for instance, had multiple WWBs that occurred much further east than normal (June, October and November in particular). There's some good ensemble support for just such a large event upcoming in a week or so, which is about right timing wise, since we're heading into the climatologically favored fall season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 I think so. It looks legit to me. The wwb looks weaker to me Weaker, sure... but we're comparing it to a strong WWB. It's still a decently strong WWB. High-end Ninos often feature WWBs that penetrate further east. It really has to do with the eastern extent of the warm pool. The further it advances, the more likely WWBs are to develop and (in general) the stronger they are. '97, for instance, had multiple WWBs that occurred much further east than normal (June, October and November in particular). There's some good ensemble support for just such a large event upcoming in a week or so, which is about right timing wise, since we're heading into the climatologically favored fall season. Thanks for the response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 It's actually hilarious JB uses the selective CFS runs to show a region 3.4 drop he wants, but says to ignore the blowtorch winter the seasonal showsWe have a vendor thread for this stuff . Do not come into this ENSO thread and muddy it up with JB talk. The use of WSI was to point out the possible coming spike in R 3.4 . We know you didn't like his MJO idea , his use of the 02/03 analog and now his non winter torch idea. Thats a lot of specificity for a guy who doesn't like/read the forecaster. Keep it ENSO related or you derail the discussion . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 There was DEF a tick up last week in 1.2 , but overall the core strength continues to expand west . The expansion in the 3 and 3.4 region have been modeled well. The warmest spread continues out near the DL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 There was DEF a tick up last week in 1.2 , but overall the core strength continues to expand west . The expansion in the 3 and 3.4 region have been modeled well. The warmest spread continues out near the DL. Textbook basin wide event as ever you're going to see. Where the best forcing sets up is the question. Hope it sets up by the dateline like most models depict for the positioning will have a HUGE impact this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 I don't feel great about these latest developments. No way to spin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 The strong anomalies have shifted east over the last month to month and a half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 On balance the shift has been west . The greater warmth since July has spread West not East R 1.2 Since July has gone from 2.7- 2.2- 1.9- 2.2- 2.6 . While R 3 , R3.4 , R 4 have steadily climbed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 It's going to be an interior winter, coast may be toast in terms of lack of cold and snow! I don't think anyone is toast yet...but that is disconcerting. That being said, it's important not to be too reactionary, either. Wait and see... But this was a victory for the east-crowd. Make no mistake about it....how large remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Not crazy about that cooling south of Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Temporary or not, the models missed the slight shift east since August. Greatest subsurface anomalies moved from 130W in August to 115W in September. The models have been verifying best in Nino 3 and 3.4. But Nino 4 is running cooler than forecast and 1+2 warmer. Evolution over the next few months will be key in determining where the best forcing sets up later in the fall into the winter. Screen shot 2015-09-21 at 12.33.31 PM.png This isn't real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Not crazy about that cooling south of Alaska The warmer anomalies pulled SW away from the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 There was DEF a tick up last week in 1.2 , but overall the core strength continues to expand west . The expansion in the 3 and 3.4 region have been modeled well. The warmest spread continues out near the DL. The first loop you posted only goes out to the 16th. That's a long time ago for the topic on hand... lots has changed since then. It looks like Nino 4 and possibly 3.4 are gonna cool with the next weekly update. The 2-2.5C contour around 150W has cooled or shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 WSI sees the greatest rise going forward in the 3.4 region ( that part was not highlighted above ) . So no one discounts the spike over the past 2 weeks in the 1.2 Region however this NINO went basin wide in July and R4 is close to record levels . All the major warning is WEST OF 90 here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 WSI sees the greatest rise going forward in the 3.4 region ( that part was not highlighted above ) . So no one discounts the spike over the past 2 weeks in the 1.2 Region however this NINO went basin wide in July and R4 is close to record levels . All the major warning is WEST OF 90 here . The bottom is cut off. The greatest anomalies have shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Also according to Ventrice , Most notably, there is a chance that an oceanic Rossby wave has formed off the west coast of South America. If this is the case, it could work against the Kelvin waves described above, moving warm waters westward. In theory, this could create what we call a Modoki-type El Nino, in which the warming takes place mostly in the central Pacific with cooling in the far eastern Pacific near South America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 If nino 3 smokes and if we fall short of the 1 2 record in nov 1997 does it really even matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 The bottom is cut off. The greatest anomalies have shifted east. All the 2.5C anomalies are W of 100 STILL R 3 and R 3.4 . Even through the end of that Sept map . I saw the spike in the shallow 1.2 region it did back up from 1.7 to 2.6 , R 1.2 is the most Volatile and that spike was not seen by the models however this continues it`s spread west as R 3 - 3.4 -4 have risen each through Sep . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 If nino 3 smokes and if we fall short of the 1 2 record in nov 1997 does it really even matter? I think we are just trying to figure out where the best forcing occurs . Pretty much where we all drew our lines in the sand . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 All the 2.5C anomalies are W of 100 STILL R 3 and R 3.4 . Even through the end of that Sept map . I saw the spike in the shallow 1.2 region it did back up from 1.7 to 2.6 , R 1 is the most Volatile and that spike was not seen by the models however this continues it`s spread west as R 3 - 3.4 -4 have risen each through Sep . Theres 4c showing up between 90 and 110w using more current products. That's all for all intents and purposes the epac. It's not just about 1 2. You're making it about that. 4 hasn't warmed in the past 2 months whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Theres 4c showing up between 90 and 110w using more current products. That's all for all intents and purposes the epac. It's not just about 1 2. You're making it about that. 4 hasn't warmed in the past 2 months whatsoever. No I am making it about 3 and 3.4 I allude to 4 because it `s close to record levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 All of the favorable models and met conjecture are great, but it's almost to the point where it actually has to materialize. I'm not saying that will not happen, but one needs to start considering it imho. I don't want to see Ventrice tweets at this point, but rather lighter shades of red in the 1+2 regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 No I am making it about 3 and 3.4 I allude to 4 because it `s close to record levels I'm not so sure about that. The greatest anomalies have shifted east through 3.4 and 3 look at the link. You immediately started talking about the changibility in 1 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 You said 4 has gone up just a couple posts ago. Get it straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 I'm not so sure about that. The greatest anomalies have shifted east through 3.4 and 3 look at the link. You immediately started talking about the changibility in 1 2. I have been talking about a move WEST since MAY . 02SEP2015 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.0 09SEP2015 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.0 16SEP2015 2.6 2.7 2.3 1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 But regions 3 and 3.4 were expected to warm. Region 4 was expected to warm and region 1+2 was expected to cool; the opposite happened there. Yea, it isn't time to assume drastic implications, but the whole "modoki/volatile 1.2" defense mechanism tweets need to start falling by the wayside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Yea, it isn't time to assume drastic implications, but the whole "modoki/volatile 1.2" defense mechanism tweets need to start falling by the wayside. Holding onto hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 I have been talking about a move WEST since MAY . I think we're all quite aware you've been talking about a move west since may. 02SEP2015 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.0 09SEP2015 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.0 16SEP2015 2.6 2.7 2.3 1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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