Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[snowman19]

Looks like we are about to see another very strong WWB, this one could really strengthen the Nino big time. A strong kelvin wave is poised to surface around early October as well. https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/644903494302863360

[mitchnick]

the ao/nao was mostly positive during the 1972-73 winter...I think twice it went negative and helped push a southern storm out to sea...monthly ao/nao averages were positive that winter...

While BWI received less than 2" that winter, places like Richmond, Lynchburg, &all of SW Virginia had average or above snowfall. Very painful to experience imby just a couple hours away and made me think it would never snow again...really. So much so that when snow was predicted in 12/73, I pulled my first all-nighter and played the only one of my sister's records she left home from college....Alice Cooper "Love it to Death". I played it about 6-7 times and remember still every song. Actually, I still have the album. Lol

[StudentOfClimatology]

True, but when looking at OLR, 1957-58 actually had significantly more Niño1-2/Niño3 forcing N of the equator than 1972-73, to the point where the east/west forcing contrast was greater in 1972-73 than 1957-58. Niño4 forcing alone is probably insufficient to explain what happened w/ the NPAC that season.

There were significant differences w/ the IO/maritime forcing, which probably explains a lot of the pattern differentials.

[StudentOfClimatology]

But in the prime tropical forcing in 57-58 was closer to Nino 4 than 72-73. The location of the Aleutian low even

farther east than some strong east based events could have also been related to the fact that 72-73 was

an odd -PDO El Nino.

I agree that 1957-58 had more Niño4 forcing, but just by a little bit. The Niño4 OLR differential between 1957-58 and 1972-73 is small, relative to the differential in eastern regions which was much larger. I'd actually argue that 1957-58 featured more basinwide forcing relative to 1972-73, which featured stronger forcing in Niño3.4 & weaker forcing in both Niño4, Niño3 and Niño1-2.

There's also a positive correlation between IO forcing and the PDO in Niño winters, so maybe they're linked.

[bluewave]

I agree that 1957-58 had more Niño4 forcing, but just by a little bit. The Niño4 OLR differential between 1957-58 and 1972-73 is small, relative to the differential in eastern regions which was much larger. I'd actually argue that 1957-58 featured more basinwide forcing relative to 1972-73, which featured stronger forcing in Niño3.4 & weaker forcing in both Niño4, Niño3 and Niño1-2.

There's also a positive correlation between IO forcing and the PDO in Niño winters, so maybe they're linked.

 

It seems like relatively subtle differences can have a large impact since a small shift of a strong Aleutian low to the east

can overpower the pattern.

 

 

[mitchnick]

It seems like relatively subtle differences can have a large impact since a small shift of a strong Aleutian low to the east

can overpower the pattern.

W.png

C.png

Wow, that top map looks near identical to the CFS2. I don't need to see those kinds of things at my age.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Year to date numbers are extremely similar to 97', our last "super" El Niño, avg temps and precips are almost identical for most areas, New England's are similar as well

[PB GFI]

The large area of plus 4C water In the EPO region never got erased. In 97 by this time there was already a large pool of cool water sitting in the EPO region.

We said the heat in this region would not get erased by the fall and you can see you are not going lose all that warmth over the next 8 weeks.

You see why the better seasonal guidance wants to stick a NEG S of the Aleutians.

Different Nino than 97 , Different SST PAC profile than 97 , Different Atlantic than 97 , all with an NEG EPO/ POS PNA in the guidance so I expect anything but 97/98 .

[snowman19]

The large area of plus 4C water In the EPO region never got erased. In 97 by this time there was already a large pool of cool water sitting in the EPO region.

We said the heat in this region would not get erased by the fall and you can see you are not going lose all that warmth over the next 8 weeks.

You see why the better seasonal guidance wants to stick a NEG S of the Aleutians.

Different Nino than 97 , Different SST PAC profile than 97 , Different Atlantic than 97 , all with an NEG EPO/ POS PNA in the guidance so I expect anything but 97/98 .

So you think the north PAC ssts will negate any forcing from the super El Niño we have? It's an honest question, not sarcastic or anything but I'm guessing you think those ssts will override the Nino cell forcing we currently have once the jet matures and wavelengths change next month right?

[UnionWeatherWx]

So you think the north PAC ssts will negate any forcing from the super El Niño we have? It's an honest question, not sarcastic or anything but I'm guessing you think those ssts will override the Nino cell forcing we currently have once the jet matures and wavelengths change next month right?

I know this was directed to PB, but IMO, I don't believe the ssts will override the Nino. I was watching a video on something similar to this question, if this were a moderate El Nino, then yes, the ssts will probably override the Nino. But, since this Nino is pretty strong, it has to have some kind of affect, opposed to 2009-2010 (moderate el nino). But, the setup is way different then 97-98. 

[PB GFI]

So you think the north PAC ssts will negate any forcing from the super El Niño we have? It's an honest question, not sarcastic or anything but I'm guessing you think those ssts will override the Nino cell forcing we currently have once the jet matures and wavelengths change next month right?

1 I believe the forcing will shift west.

2 I believe the EPO will produce a NEG S of the Aleutians.

3 I believe that will pull the higher heights west of Hudson Bay

4 I believe there will be a trough in the SE and the EC will see AN precip.

5 I believe Dec is AN while Jan and Feb is your winter.

I don't know how much more specific I can be , I am never afraid to make a forecast , I did this back in April with the Nino and it turned out very good , so I am willing to go all in and tell you what I think with the guidance and drivers on my side.

[UnionWeatherWx]

1 quick question. I've checked the SSTS in the Gulf Of Mexico, and off the east coast. They do not look favorable for Nor'Easters currently, but at the same time the west Atlantic is pretty warm, any Met/Wise man explain to me if this would override a typical El Nino pattern?

[PB GFI]

All the guidance points to a wet EC.

[ClicheVortex2014]

The large area of plus 4C water In the EPO region never got erased. In 97 by this time there was already a large pool of cool water sitting in the EPO region.

We said the heat in this region would not get erased by the fall and you can see you are not going lose all that warmth over the next 8 weeks.

You see why the better seasonal guidance wants to stick a NEG S of the Aleutians.

Different Nino than 97 , Different SST PAC profile than 97 , Different Atlantic than 97 , all with an NEG EPO/ POS PNA in the guidance so I expect anything but 97/98 .

Not sure why you're talking about the SSTs in the NE Pacific. It's irrelevant because the Nino forcing is going to override whatever effect the SSTs have had. We're already seeing a persistent, large trough over NW Canada/part of the GOA as a product of Tropical forcing. When it retrogrades, it's not gonna be because the SSTs in the NE Pacific suddenly "started working", if they're even still there by that time.

[jm1220]

The large area of plus 4C water In the EPO region never got erased. In 97 by this time there was already a large pool of cool water sitting in the EPO region.

We said the heat in this region would not get erased by the fall and you can see you are not going lose all that warmth over the next 8 weeks.

You see why the better seasonal guidance wants to stick a NEG S of the Aleutians.

Different Nino than 97 , Different SST PAC profile than 97 , Different Atlantic than 97 , all with an NEG EPO/ POS PNA in the guidance so I expect anything but 97/98 .

Hopefully the rain produces for us like 1997 though. I haven't really looked at the the progression of Nino effects in the South yet, but even just from this summer, parts of Texas are in extreme drought again after record May and June rain. Lake Travis (which feeds the main reservoirs and Colorado River for Austin) even after all the May/June rain never made it all the way full. That's how insane the 2011 drought was here. The last few weeks have had the wildfire alerts starting up again from the rainless late summer that locals tell me were year-round during the last Nina, and I can tell by how brown the trees and grass became from 2 months of no rain at all. This is my first time really appreciating the "wet/dry season" dynamic, especially when we had 25 days above/at 100 in Austin, and even today hit 96. Any water in the ground is gone in a pinch under those conditions, and then combine that with no rain for weeks on end. 

[PB GFI]

Not sure why you're talking about the SSTs in the NE Pacific. It's irrelevant because the Nino forcing is going to override whatever effect the SSTs have had. We're already seeing a persistent, large trough over NW Canada/part of the GOA as a product of Tropical forcing. When it retrogrades, it's not gonna be because the SSTs in the NE Pacific suddenly "started working", if they're even still there by that time.

How/why would you not understand a NEG EPO modeled to the level of the European guidance suggests not have an effect on where the heights in Canada get pulled back too .

And what the response downstream HAS to be . If you place a NEG S of the Aleutians you HAVE to bend the jet off the Asian continent up and over the pole .

If the heights are centered on the west shores of HB , where does HP go as it follows the NJET ? The further west the height fiend is the more LIKELY HP will have no where to go but through the lakes towards the SE .

The back side of the ridge is where the jet will follow. The CFS is only seasonal model too far east and has been opined about already.

What gives you one response in the summer gives you the another response in the winter.

I hope you are not making the argument because there was a ridge in the GOA in the summer it has to stay like that come this winter ?

As the seasonal jet ttightens and the colder air off as Asia hits that warm water it develops as deep negative in the very area a ridge is sitting now.

Take a look at what the response of the MJO in what its phases give you JJA and check the same phases again for JFA.

Why do you think that is ? Because the seasonal feedback of the jet gives you a differences responses at different times of the year.

This has been the Genesis of the non winter argument 1st, many east based fans were sure this would focus itself In the 1.2 region. We opined early on that the guidance cleary spread the NINO west , you guys did not buy it then finally it wasn't until 3 and 3.4 boiled and 4 sat at 1c did you guys oh yeh fine its basin wide. We argued that from April the rest of the guys has to admit I'm August it was basin wide. (Basin wide was not the call by many here early on )

There were only a few here that believed this was going west.

Then we said watch that warm water in the EPO region it's warm it will not going to get erased then came the posts well upwelling will occur and the water anamolies will be erased . A week away from.OCT and that that position is wrong too as that water is plus 4c. Now the last stand is the forcing may not head back west.

My god , you guys have been wrong about this entire process and you are now ignoring the guidance once again to make the claim that this is a non 97 type winter .

The fact that the water in the EPO region is so warm combined with such a strong ENSO event should really make people focus on both the drivers here along with the vast majority of the guidance.

I am comfortable with my 3rd position here .

Especially after seeing my first 2 turn out correct.

[snowman19]

More strengthening to come, the GFS is showing the SOI hitting record low numbers next week

[easternsnowman]

Just because one model shows something does not make it so and even if the soi is low is no guarantee of more warming.

[PB GFI]

The global SSTs  profile could not be different than 97  .

 

Look at where the greatest warming is in the NINO basin . East of 110 vs West of 100 

Look at the difference off the west coast .

Look at the difference in the EPO region 

Look at the difference in the Western Pacific 

Look at the difference in the Atlantic . 

 

The majority of the guidance does not allow the NINO to just overwhelm the pattern like  in 97 and most of this is why. 

[PB GFI]

Compliments of the OHV thread and Brian Bledsoe . His thoughts and analogs below . There has been some agreement with these sentiments on this board . 

 

Keep in mind, these constructed analogs are not our official forecast. However, we found that they closely mirror many of our individual analog years so thought they were worth sharing. I will break down our individual analog years in a series of future posts, but here they are in chronological (not favored) order: 1940-41, 1941-42, 1957-58, 1958-59, 1972-73, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2009-10, 2014-15.

 

http://www.weather5280.com/blog/2015/09/08/el-nino-update-and-cpc-constructed-analog-forecast/

 

[Yanksfan]

The global SSTs  profile could not be different than 97  .

 

Look at where the greatest warming is in the NINO basin . East of 110 vs West of 100 

Look at the differences off the west coast .

Look at the difference in the EPO region 

Look at the difference in the Western Pacific 

Look at the difference in the Atlantic . 

 

The majority of the guidance does not allow the NINO to just overwhelm the pattern like  in 97 and most of this is why. 

I used to think that way too. I always thought when you have a strong to super Nino it would overwhelm the pattern and then  you could pull the curtains down on winter. Now I know that there are other drivers at play that can offset any superiority the Nino would produce. The most interesting anomaly is the EPO. If it stays negative this winter which is starting to look more likely, we are entering uncharted waters my friend.

[snowman19]

All we can say about September is that we are seeing the reverse of the typical

El Nino 500 mb response. Most of the long range seasonal and monthly models had

the usual September pattern with an Aleutian trough and Western Canada ridge.

This September has the inverse with an Aleutian ridge and trough near the

PAC NW and Western Canada. The models must have been going with the

composite below by mistake.

30 year September Nino 3.4 September composite

500.gif

September 2015 pattern

15.gif

JMA incorrectly went with typical September 500 mb

Y201508.D0900_gl0.png

The seasonal and monthly models did a horrifically terrible job with September. Dead wrong, not off to a good start at all

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 I believe the forcing will shift west.

2 I believe the EPO will produce a NEG S of the Aleutians.

3 I believe that will pull the higher heights west of Hudson Bay

4 I believe there will be a trough in the SE and the EC will see AN precip.

5 I believe Dec is AN while Jan and Feb is your winter.

I don't know how much more specific I can be , I am never afraid to make a forecast , I did this back in April with the Nino and it turned out very good , so I am willing to go all in and tell you what I think with the guidance and drivers on my side.

Agree 100%.

 

We've been on the same page from the get go.

 

What do you think el nino peaks at?

I had ~1.8 in my July update....gonna try to do another one this wknd.

[PB GFI]

Agree 100%.

 

We've been on the same page from the get go.

 

What do you think el nino peaks at?

I had ~1.8 in my July update....gonna try to do another one this wknd.

 

Just following my favorite guidance and drivers , that`s about it  . If I knew for sure , I would be laying beach side trading WX derivatives from a hut in Tahiti with a swarm of 9s and 10s around me .

Instead I am here , ha . 

 

Back in April I posted 1.8 - 2 . So I will stick to that and see how close it was .

 

I know I gave myself a 2C range ( cheeky ) but think its close to 2 . 

[Isotherm]

True, but when looking at OLR, 1957-58 actually had significantly more Niño1-2/Niño3 forcing N of the equator than 1972-73, to the point where the east/west forcing contrast was greater in 1972-73 than 1957-58. Niño4 forcing alone is probably insufficient to explain what happened w/ the NPAC that season.

There were significant differences w/ the IO/maritime forcing, which probably explains a lot of the pattern differentials.

 

 

The global atmospheric angular momentum budget was likely partially to blame concerning the disparity between the 72-73 mid latitude pattern and than classic/mean strong El Nino paradigm. Generally, AAM tendency is higher during +ENSO periods; however, in the strong Nino years of 65-66 and 72-73, for example, the AAM averaged near neutral to negative. Thus the typical NPAC mid latitude regime did not manifest itself.

 

Note the striking similarity b/t the 65-66/72-73 pacific patterns. The AAM averaged higher in 57-58, 82-83, 97-98, etc., years which featured the more classic GOAK trough regime. The inverse occurred in the below years, with a Nina like Aleutian ridge / WEUS trough / RNA.

 

 

 

 

 

[Isotherm]

Just following my favorite guidance and drivers , that`s about it  . If I knew for sure , I would be laying beach side trading WX derivatives from a hut in Tahiti with a swarm of 9s and 10s around me .

Instead I am here , ha . 

 

Back in April I posted 1.8 - 2 . So I will stick to that and see how close it was .

 

I know I gave myself a 2C range ( cheeky ) but think its close to 2 . 

 

 

We've been on the same page insofar as peak. I'm sticking to a trimonthly peak value of approximately 1.75-1.95C. Think the models overall continue to overestimate intensity. A climax near or slightly stronger than 65-66 seems likely to me, but just below super Nino criteria.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the NAO saved my area in '66.

[PB GFI]

We've been on the same page insofar as peak. I'm sticking to a trimonthly peak value of approximately 1.75-1.95C. Think the models overall continue to overestimate intensity. A climax near or slightly stronger than 65-66/57-58 seems likely to me, but just below super Nino criteria.

 

I think you and I may be on the same page as far a -AO this season , but I have not touched the NAO .

 

Any thoughts this far out ? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

We've been on the same page insofar as peak. I'm sticking to a trimonthly peak value of approximately 1.75-1.95C. Think the models overall continue to overestimate intensity. A climax near or slightly stronger than 65-66 seems likely to me, but just below super Nino criteria.

Yes.

[Isotherm]

I think you and I may be on the same page as far a -AO this season , but I have not touched the NAO .

 

Any thoughts this far out ? 

 

 

There are a few important correlations / indicators that I monitor in the Sep-Nov period with respect to NAO/AO tendencies, so that's why I've largely refrained from making any prediction on those indices. However, I will say that the early season indicators suggest that the probability of a -AO and -NAO winter is elevated this year. Again, what happens over the next couple months may either enhance or contradict that signal. But I do very much like what I've seen so far regarding the preliminary NAO indicator(s) that I monitor.